Afternoon statistics – Difficulties of data collection – Non-solitary hiking – Rodney Howard Browne’s punishment – Another unexpected recovery – Fortuitous finds in the stores – Speculations about potential increase in suicides – The goats of Llandudno – The homeless in Los Angeles and Seattle
Today’s statistics as of 4:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 846,156; # of deaths worldwide: 41,494; # of cases U.S.: 181,099; # of deaths U.S.: 3,606. Italy today saw the lowest rate of increase that it has experienced in the past two weeks. In China the number of cases still active continues to decline – assuming, of course, one can believe their data. If they are lying they are at any rate doing so very consistently; the data they give presents a situation in which some new cases occur every day and some deaths as well, but in which generally the rate of increase is shrinking and the aggregate number still afflicted with the disease is declining. By their own showing, they still have quite a way to go. Life in Wuhan is getting back to normal; shops are re-opening and food is being transported with greater ease than before. Nonetheless it is possible that the death count is far higher than claimed; in Wuhan alone some estimates are for 42,000. Experts say that the count may be further skewed because asymptomatic people may not be included. That seems probable enough; if they are asymptomatic, how is it possible to know whether they have the virus or not? For that matter, I myself might have contracted the virus without being aware of it, since it can take up to two weeks following incubation before the symptoms appear; without testing, there is no way to tell, and it simply isn’t practical to test everyone.
I hiked with the Vigorous Hikers in the area around Bolivar Heights and Loudoun Heights. I was in two minds about participating: I wasn’t sure whether I was violating the stay-at-home order (it permits going outside for exercise but it’s unclear regarding the extent one can be out and also the extent one can drive to a trailhead or park), but it was very pleasant to be able to hike with friends after being on the trails in solitude for a week. The stay-at-home order for Virginia has shut down beaches, and no in-person classes may be held at colleges and universities. But there are no restrictions for travel for the purposes of recreation, provided one observes social distancing with anyone else he or she may encounter. Maryland’s stay-at-home order is more stringent; it prohibits people from driving out of state. But I don’t see how that can enforced without putting up some sort of guard on every road that crosses a state border – and there are dozens of them. Other than that, it does allow travel for the purposes of exercise.
MC was among the group and we ruefully recalled our conversation of four weeks ago, when France had 204 cases, and how we both felt inclined to believe that the concerns of the experts were over-inflated. In four short weeks the number of France’s affected population is approaching one in a thousand. The mortality rate there is over 6½%. The mortality rate in the U.S. is under 2% — so far, that is. But since a mere 3% of the people who contracted the virus have recovered and the remainder are still fighting the disease, that figure may alter.
Rodney Howard-Browne was arrested for his gross disregard of the safety of his congregation and his fellow countrymen at large; but since he was released a bare 40 minutes later after putting up a $500 bond, it does not appear that he underwent any great privations for his misconduct.
Yet another elderly Italian survivor: Italica Grondona, who tested positive for the virus but whose symptoms were mild, has completely recovered. She is 102. And there is a veteran in Oregon, Bill Kelly, who has also recovered, in spite of being 95.
Some useful finds at the stores today. No wipes; I suppose that’s too much to expect. But I picked up a package of paper towels and also some rubbing alcohol, which means I can make disinfecting wipes of my own. The bottle of rubbing alcohol that I bought was the last one on the shelf; it will probably be a while before it gets restocked.
Query: will the suicide rate go up as a result of so much enforced solitude? It seems possible, indeed likely. Ditto for domestic homicides, with so many families forced to live at close quarters and never able to get away from one another.
A truly bizarre episode: the coastal town of Llandudno has been overrun by a herd of wild goats as a result of the lockdown. With hardly anyone in the town able to venture onto the streets on account of the lockdown, the goats have descended from the nearby mountains to snack on the hedges that border the gardens, as well as the grass and the flower beds in the gardens themselves.
The homeless of Los Angeles and Seattle are being infected by the virus. It has been only a matter of time. Officials fear that it will sweep like wildfire among them; they are particularly vulnerable, since in general they are subject to many conditions (diabetes, heart disease, lung disease) that can weaken their resistance.