Appointment for the first vaccine dose – The vaccine boycotters – Calculating risks in a probabilistic world – A rioter from the Trump administration – Evening statistics
Today was occupied with many mundane errands, income taxes among them. But I have at last obtained an appointment to receive the COVID vaccine. The process for setting it up was somewhat convoluted. Fairfax County sent a text to me, stating that I was eligible for an appointment and to check my Email for a notice with details on how to schedule an appointment. I accordingly checked my Email and found no notice from the county at all. So I called the number for contacting the county operations and eventually (the use of the adverb is justified, for the process over half-an-hour) spoke with a representative who told me to set up an online account with INOVA, from which I would be able to make the appointment. This I have done, and indeed I was able to make an appointment for Sunday. I do not see how setting up such an account can be done by those who are not what is called “computer-literate.” Among other things, it required a scanned image of the fronts and backs of my medical insurance cards. I have a printer/scanner at my home, so I could supply these without difficulty; but those who do not have the appropriate equipment would probably have to go to a store to scan the cards for them and then transfer them from either a disk or an Email attachment.
I have written about how the demand for COVID vaccines has been far exceeding the supply (and indeed I know several in neither Phase 1A or 1B who are getting increasingly anxious about the length of time they will have to wait to receive one), but a significant amount of Americans claim that they will refuse the vaccine. About 23% of Republicans said that they “definitely” will not receive one of the available vaccines and an additional 21% said that they “probably” would not get immunized. Among the Democrats, by way of contrast, only 7% have said that they will not get vaccinated.
These objectors cite safety concerns and it is true that there is some risk involved: the vaccines are new, and we can’t be certain about how effective they will be in the long run. All the same, this type of reaction demonstrates what my late father observed about the difficulties people have in coping with what he called the “probabilistic universe,” which he attributed to the average American student’s lack of mathematical training. There are two separate issues here. Some people have gone into anaphylaxis, which is a severe and potentially life-threatening condition. Some have contracted the disease after receiving the vaccine – which is only to be expected, for there is no vaccine that has a 100% success rate. The efficacy rate for the Pfizer, Moderna, and Janssen vaccines are 95%, 94%, and 85% respectively; in negative terms, about 5%, 6%, and 15% respectively may contract the disease after receiving the vaccine. It is still a little early to get firm data about the risk of incurring anaphylaxis after receiving the vaccine, but so far the results indicate that it is about 4.7 cases per million doses for the Pfizer vaccine and 2.5 per million doses for the Moderna vaccine; in most cases, moreover, the people thus affected have had a medical history of severe allergies and, in some instances, previous episodes of anaphylaxis.
The risks attendant on taking the vaccine, however, have to be weighed against the risk of being getting infected with the disease, which at this point has been contracted by nearly 9% of all Americans. The death rate among those who contract the disease is currently about 1.8%, which works out to 1.6 deaths per every 1000 of the total population. The rate of those who have sustained significant organ damage (to the lungs in particular) as a result of the virus is at this point unknown, but it is higher than the mortality rate. No one can guarantee total safety or total immunity after taking the vaccine, but the risk of declining to receive it is significantly higher. As the mathematicians would say, “QED.”
The Justice Department has by now charged more than 300 people who participated in the January 6th Capitol siege, but one in particular is noteworthy. Federico Klein is the first official appointed directly by Trump to face the DOJ’s allegations. Klein was seen on video assaulting police officers, attempting to take items from them, and assaulting them with a riot shield. The court documents allege he ‘violently shoved the shield into an officer’s body in an attempt to breach the police line.” Klein was an employee of the Department of State and possessed a Top Secret clearance; he resigned on January 19th, the day before Biden’s inauguration. He is the first member of the Trump political administration to be charged in connection with the riot. He occupied a fairly low-level position, but possibly this case may pave the way for the proverbial bigger and better things.
Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 116,650,517; # of deaths worldwide: 2,591,104; # of cases U.S.: 29,593,006; # of deaths; U.S.: 535,560.