Hiking in the Massanuttens – The road to herd immunity – CDC’s cautious optimism – Evening statistics
I went with some of the Capital Hiking Club hike leaders to the Massanuttens. It was a sort of conditioning hike. Several of the leaders have had considerably less opportunity to be out of doors than I have, and they are desirous of getting some training to get them back into reasonable trim. We started from Elizabeth Furnace and went up the Sherman Gap Trail to the ridgeline, a long ascent that becomes quite steep towards the end. Then we went along the ridgeline, from where we caught glimpses of the valley below, had lunch at Shawl Gap, and descended from there back to Elizabeth Furnace: about 8¼ miles and perhaps 1800 feet of elevation gain. We saw numerous wildflowers, including several not normally seen at lower elevations: bluets, dwarf iris, and an occasional lady-slipper. Several butterflies flitted across the paths. It was a beautiful day, cool enough to prevent us from over-heating ourselves during the steep ascent to the ridgeline.
FH and I drove together to the trailhead. Since we are both vaccinated, we did not wear facemasks while riding in the car, and FH sat beside me in the front rather than in the back seats. It felt strangely reckless at first after all of the caution we’ve been forced to exercise over the past several months, but eventually it came to seem not at all strange. Indeed, the pace of vaccination was one of our principal topics of conversation during the drive to the trailhead. At this point 44% of the U.S. population has received at least one dose, with 31.2% fully vaccination. Among adults 18 or older, the figures are 55.8% for having received a single dose and 39.8% for having been fully vaccinated. Among seniors 65 or older, the figures are 82.6% for having received a single dose and 69.3% for having been fully vaccinated. This last statistic is particularly significant, for seniors are by far the most likely to require hospitalization after contracting the virus. We now account for just under 8.5% of the critical cases worldwide, a much lower figure than it was a few months ago.
As always, any note of optimism must be tempered with caution. We have not reached the so-called “herd immunity” yet; that condition requires 70%-85% of the adult populace being fully vaccinated. Eventually the vaccine must be available to adolescents; they are certainly more resistant to the disease than seniors, but they are by no means immune. Currently the vaccine is available to anyone 16 years or older. However, the CDC is attempting to make vaccines available to those in their early teens, i.e., from 12 years old to 15 years, as well. Based upon the decreasing daily case rate, the decreasing daily death rate, and the increasing number of vaccinations, Dr. Rochelle Walensky said that a full re-opening by July 1st is feasible. As she noted, however, “the virus has tricked us before,” and it is premature to declare victory at this stage.
Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 152,783,372; # of deaths worldwide: 3,205,683; # of cases U.S.: 33,145,463; # of deaths; U.S.: 590,700.