Morning statistics – The virus hits home – The permanency of the virus – The amazing case of Vietnam – Authoritarianism and democracy compared – Hillary Clinton on the protesters of Michigan – Life during retirement – Modified rapture – The new epicenter – The proposed relief bill – Farmers’ Markets and wine tasting rooms – Sourdough bread at last – Evening statistics
Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 4,645,386; # of deaths worldwide: 308,990; # of cases U.S.: 1,484,287; # of deaths U.S.: 88,507.
BL from the Vigorous Hikers has contracted the virus and apparently has had it for the past two weeks. He is extremely fit but he is also in his late 70s and he has had heart trouble in the past, so he definitely is at risk. I have had relatively little contact with him in the most recent hikes with the group. It is unlikely that I would receive any infection from him directly; but I have encountered others who have had more extensive contact with him. No one else has had any symptoms, but obviously I need to be cautious. The weather for the next proposed hike of the group is supposed to be fairly miserable, so I probably will not be joining them in any case. A disturbing feature that emerged from this case is that BL did not undergo any testing because the tests are providing a number of false negatives. He has had a mild fever which subsided within a few days and has not returned, so his case is presumed not serious.
The WHO has said that the virus will not disappear over the course of time. This statement is consistent with the views of Dr. Fauci, who said that the chances of the virus being eliminated are virtually nil. Eventually, it seems, we will simply have to live with it, as we do with the flu, accepting the fact that it will claim several thousand every year. Vaccines are being developed and treatments are being refined, and in the end it seems likely that we will have to apply a mixture of prevention and cure, just as we do with the flu or any other infectious disease. The effects of this one are more far-ranging and debilitating than most, but we will have to use the same methods of emerging from the pandemic as we did from the pandemic of 1918.
Vietnam continues to astonish other nations. Despite the fact that it shares a border with China, it has less than 300 virus cases among it 97 million citizens and no deaths. The WHO, which has declared its suspicions of data from numerous other countries (Brazil and Iran, for instance) does not see any reason to doubt these figures. Vietnam instituted travel restrictions even when the WHO was advising against them (it has since done a complete volte face), closed the 870-mile border with China, set up testing labs with admirable efficiency, directed the population to wear masks in public (well in advance of the majority of other countries), banned indoor gatherings of more than 20 people and outdoor gatherings of more than 10 people, and set up continual communication from the government to the populace about such matters as the proper way to wash hands and the need to accept temporary economic hardship for the sake of ensuring public safety. The Vietnamese have even managed to donate face masks to other countries, even those, such as France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U.K., that are wealthier but that have responded to the crisis much less effectively.
Sadly, it appears that a country with an authoritarian government is capable of operating more smoothly than a country with a democratic one – assuming, of course, that the head of such a government knows what he is doing. The problem is that so few of them do. The attitude of the Vietnamese government appears to be that of Elizabeth I in 16th-century England; roughly, it can be summarized as “Let people think whatever they like, as long they do what I like.” Nguyễn Phú Trọng keeps a low profile; he does not set up a cult of personality or live in ostentatious luxury, and as long as you don’t challenge his political supremacy or criticize the Communist party, you are left in peace. But for every Nguyễn Phú Trọng, there are at least a dozen egomaniacs like Kim Jong-un or Jair Bolsonaro or Vladimir Putin who simply cannot exist without receiving or extorting public declarations of worship on a daily basis. It is true that our own President has a similar mindset, but here at any rate we cannot be compelled to give him the accolades he so desperately craves. At this stage people complain about his actions freely and satirists such as Andy Borowitz gleefully mock his numerous follies (though I am bound to say that they appear to have some difficulty in exaggerating the reality).
Hillary Clinton has condemned the protesters at Lansing, MI, in the strongest possible terms, accusing them of “domestic terrorism.” Unlike some of my friends, I am not an admirer of this lady. I have worked in classified environments; and had I been guilty of some of the deeds she committed I would have been fired, and possibly even arraigned, so I do not look kindly upon her taking on special privileges and considering herself above the law in this respect. Her hedging on this point was a major faction in her losing the 2016 election, and she has only herself to blame. I indeed ended up voting for her myself – so great was the aversion that Donald Trump inspired in me, even then – but I held my nose when I did so. On this point, however, I am completely in agreement with her. Of course the stay-at-home restrictions are inconvenient to many, perhaps even costly to some; but that does not justify their marching on the state capital as if it were an enemy city to be captured and occupied. And Trump’s essential frivolity in encouraging such a revolt highlights his shortcomings as a leader; instead of working in concert with the state governors, he deliberately tries to undermine their efforts.
Like the heroine of The Mill on the Floss, I have come into the knowledge of what it is “to get up in the morning without any imperative reason for doing one thing more than another.” The question may be asked: wasn’t my condition already like this after I retired? And the answer is: most emphatically, no. I did not, after all, sever all connections with my fellow-creatures when I stopped going to an office every day. There were arrangements that had to be made to set up pension payments and medical insurance; there were several long-deferred projects on the house to be done; there were events to organize and other events to attend; there were trips with various to hike across various parts of the world. For three years I was Director of Trails for the Wanderbirds Club, setting up the schedule for weekly hikes and then recruiting leaders for them – quite a time-consuming business, one I could not easily have done had I still been working full-time. My term with that club has ended but since then I occupied a similar position with the Capital Hiking Club. Then I generally led two or three hikes every quarter, and of course these had to be scouted and involved various other preliminary and follow-up tasks. Again, I was able to visit friends who lived out of the state more readily than I could when I was continually working, and I was eager to take advantage of such opportunities. On the whole, I had no trouble filling up my days. It is different now. There are occasional interactions with others, but my life for the most part is solitary. Even after the restrictions lift, my social life won’t come back all at once. People will remain cautious even after the stay-at-home orders end, and there will be a reluctance to attend the larger gatherings that will, I suspect, last for some time.
Some good news at last. Italy has had its lowest death toll in ten weeks and feels confident to begin a staggered re-opening. Spain and Turkey also have had the lowest death tolls since mid-March, and Ireland has had the least number of new cases since mid-March. In general, the pace of the virus appears to be slowing down in Western Europe. Russia, unfortunately, is getting an accelerating rate of new cases.
The WHO declares that North and South America are the epicenter of the virus at this point. Brazil has now surpassed Italy in the number of cases, as predicted. At this point only the U.S, Russia, Spain, and the U.K. have more cases than Brazil. Mexico’s death toll is listed 4,767 but this is almost certainly an under-estimate. Tijuana’s morgue, for instance, has run out of space for bodies. In Juarez a worker has stated that he is now obtaining 80 bodies per week from hospitals, whereas the normal rate is 25 per week. The country has almost one of the lowest test rates in the world, about 1,200 tests for every one million people; even Brazil has three times as many tests per million.
The proposed relief bill has passed through the House but is reported to be “dead on arrival” for the Senate. Nancy Pelosi has stated that she is “open to negotiations” but the remarks of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer concerning Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell – “what alternative universe is he living in?” – suggests that any negotiations conducted between the two parties will be undertaken in no very cooperative spirit.
One should speak cautiously of Senate Majority Leaders, to be sure. One never knows what triumphs may be in store for them. It is of course extremely doubtful that Mitch McConnell will leave any significant mark on the history of our nation, but he conceivably might one day lead a majority in the Senate. One never knows.
My gloomy predictions about Farmers’ Markets appear to be mistaken. The Historic Market of Roanoke re-opened yesterday. Vendors have to wear face coverings and their stalls have to be some distance apart from one another, but the market is operative again. Again, wine tasting rooms are open again in Oregon. Similar restrictions apply but at least they haven’t fallen by the wayside.
I tried setting up a sourdough starter again, and today I had reasonable success. The loaves did not rise as much as I had hoped but they did rise and the texture was light and firm. I may have to vary the recipe. When I began kneading the mixture after the first rising it was so nearly liquid that I felt as if I were kneading gelatin. It became firmer as I added more flour but I found it difficult to get it to the point that it was no longer sticking to the board. At this point the bread from the starter does not have the distinctive acid taste one associates with sourdough; that comes later as the starter begins to age.
One factor that may have assisted me was the warm weather this weekend, which helped to accelerate the starter’s rising. We must value it while we can; the forecast is for rather cool and damp weather this coming week, with rain on Friday and Saturday.
Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 4,716,793; # of deaths worldwide: 312,380; # of cases U.S.: 1,507,686; # of deaths U.S.: 89,591.