The battlefield of Manassas – Increased availability of the vaccine – Progress of COVID in other nations – Evening statistics
Virginia has numerous parks devoted to the sites of Civil War battlefields. That is hardly surprising, for as the fortunes of the conflict tilted alternately to the North and to the South, soldiers swept through the state that bordered the nation’s capital and many decisive battles were fought there. The battlefield of Manassas witnessed two important encounters. The first of these was the first major battle of the Civil War. Before that event, several contemporary observers believed that the entire conflict was a relatively minor matter that would be settled in the course of a few months. The battle highlighted the military deficiencies of both sides, and of the Union side in particular: lack of training, artillery endangered by lack of protection from the infantry, and the inability of either commander to employ his entire force effectively. Both sides were appalled by the number of casualties, realizing belatedly that the conflict would be likely to be much more drawn-out and bloodier than originally predicted. Although the end result was a Confederate victory, even in the South the reaction was muted: the Southerners were well-aware that they had fewer men at their disposal than the North, and that a series of victories such as this one would eventually deplete their forces. The second battle, in which the number of casualties was much greater, was also a Confederate victory. This one, however, greatly buoyed Confederate morale on account of the relatively minor loss of life among the Confederate forces, and it gave Robert E. Lee the confidence to conduct the Maryland Campaign, culminating in the Battle of Antietam, which resulted in over 20,000 casualties and is still remembered as the bloodiest conflict on American soil.
The Eastern forest is a cruel graveyard. Hardly a trace remains of the fierce fighting that took place one-and-a-half centuries ago. There are occasional depressions in the earth that indicate where forces dug out trenches or improvised hasty graves for fallen soldiers; but for the most part the relentless pace of encroaching vegetation has obliterated any indication of the military maneuvers that at the time seemed to be of such great importance. Along the trails there are signs posted indicating where such-and-such a battalion advanced or retreated; no doubt they are correct in their surmises, but it is impossible to discern such events from the terrain alone. For the most part the site is indistinguishable from ordinary groves and meadows in other regional woodlands. Buildings that functioned as landmarks in various phases of the battle are razed to their foundations; private cemeteries belonging to the families of house-owners are now merely flat patches of ground, the tombstones fallen and afterwards nearly disintegrated by the yearly onslaughts of rain and sun and wind, and preserved from being grown over by trees and undergrowth only through the dedicated efforts of park caretakers. The park is not like, for instance, the site of the Battle of the Somme, where scars from the fighting have lingered for a century. The majority of visitors use it as an occasion for a pleasurable stroll or ride on horseback through the woods and fields, with little regard for its sad past. Indeed, one cannot mourn forever.
It was to Manassas Battlefield Park that I went today, along with various other Wanderbirds. The hike was rather a frustrating one to me: I had gone on with JT to take an additional loop from the main route and upon returning from this loop we were misled by signs for the Second Manassas Trail that led us into a complete circle. I’m still not certain how it happened: we followed the signs for the trail and its red blazes without deviation and it is not clear where we could have taken a wrong turn. But there is no arguing with the results. What had originally been intended as an 11-mile hike resulted in about 15 miles instead. We did get back in time to reconnoiter with the others who had taken shorter routes, so the effect of this mishap was predominantly one of irritation as opposed to any more substantive harm. The additional (planned) loop was one I had never done before, although I have visited the park numerous times in the past. It went past Brawner’s Farm, where the original house is still intact; it is the site of the opening phase of the second battle that took place in the area. It has been opened only recently and it contains a small museum dedicated to the history of the fighting that took place there.
At the gathering we held after the hike I saw SM, whom I have not met for many months. She was telling me how she had recently received her first dose of the vaccine and was looking forward to getting the second soon. We both commented on how much easier it is now to obtain vaccination than it was a couple of months ago. At this point nearly 60% of American adults have received at least one dose and 47.2% have been fully vaccinated. Today’s daily infections and number of deaths were each little over 3% of the global total. Unfortunately, vaccination rates have fallen as well. In Wyoming more than a quarter of adults said that they will “definitely not” or “probably not” receive the vaccine. In four additional states – Montana, North Dakota, Kentucky and Ohio – more than 20% of adults said the same. This reluctance of a significant swath of the population to get vaccinated may lead to another surge of the disease in the winter months to come.
In other countries the outlook is less optimistic.
Argentina, which up to this point seemed to have been spared the worst of the pandemic, is now experiencing a second wave of the virus. Its hospital system has not been strained to nearly the same extent as Brazil’s, but they are now at full capacity with minimal capability to cope with any new influx of patients. Lockdown measures are in effect until May 21st and gatherings of more than 10 people are banned.
South Africa retains its unenviable status as the epicenter of the virus in Africa. Its vaccination rollout has undergone numerous delays. Only about 500,000 have been fully vaccinated (less than 1% of the population). Full vaccination rollout is not scheduled to begin until tomorrow.
Turkey will be emerging from its lockdown tomorrow. Its government has set a goal of getting its daily case rate down to lower than 5,000 in time for the summer tourist season. Currently the daily case rate is averaging about 15,000 daily – much better than the rate of 60,000 that was seen in mid-April, but such an improvement may not be sufficient to salvage its tourist season. The country, which has a population of about 82 million, has administered more than 25 million doses. But vaccination availability has become an issue; Turkey’s health minister has warned that May and June will be difficult months for vaccine procurement. The country is also striving to develop a vaccine of its own in order to reduce dependence on foreign sources.
Brazil continues to display widespread disregard for social-distancing rules, a trend encouraged by President Bolsonaro, the other caudillo of the Americas. As a result, the COVID virus is spreading more rapidly than ever. At this point more than a third of all deaths in Brazil are attributable to the virus. Brazil’s vaccination rollout has also been slowed by lack of supply. Less than 8% of the population is fully vaccinated.
Kenya is undergoing a third wave of the virus. Its number of daily infections and daily deaths is still relatively low, but fewer than 2% of the population has been inoculated and vaccine supplies have up to this point depended primarily on India, which of course is now in no position to export vaccines to other countries.
Iran is undergoing a fourth wave of the pandemic. Hundreds of Iranian cities and towns have been categorized as “Red Zones” and placed under semi-lockdown with all non-essential businesses closed. Hospitals in Tehran are running at 100% capacity. It has been using the Russian Sputnik vaccine but, like Turkey, is also attempting to develop a vaccine of its own in order not to be dependent on other nations for vaccine supply.
Russia itself has been one of the worst-hit countries in recent months. The official figure for COVID infections to date is 4.8 million, while the number of deaths is reported to be 112,000. However, experts say that these statistics represent serious under-reporting. Basing their calculations upon the expected number of deaths for the year and the actual number of deaths reported, they believe that the real figures are likely to be as much as five times higher. Only 10 million Russians have been fully vaccinated, less than 7% of the nation’s population. The Russians have not shown any great trust of the Sputnik vaccine, with many members of its health-care system among its greatest skeptics. It actually has been rated by international medical communities as having an efficacy rate of over 91%, but the haste with which the vaccine was developed and the grandiose claims Putin has made its behalf have combined to make its reception lukewarm in the country of its origin.
Nigeria is encountering a gradual surge in infections. Its government, however, is taking several pro-active measures to contain it. Fresh restrictions against movement and mass gatherings have been introduced nationwide. Bars and nightclubs remain closed, and a nationwide 12 AM. to 4 AM. curfew is now in effect. Travel from Brazil, India, and Turkey is heavily restricted. Less than 1% of its population has received vaccines, but it is making vigorous attempts to obtain more in order to continue its rollout.
Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 163,690,235; # of deaths worldwide: 3,392,583; # of cases U.S.: 33,712,142; # of deaths; U.S.: 600,139.