What constitutes the “end” of a pandemic? – New York lifts mandates for the vaccinated – COVID is down in this country, but not out – A measure of alleviation from India – Making bread at home – Evening statistics
How does one determine when a plague comes to an end? In the various accounts of past epidemics I have not arrived at an answer to this question. The 1918 influenza pandemic is an example. It is said to have ended in early 1920, even though influenza is obviously still with us and claims a number of victims every year. At one point the number of infections certainly dwindled, but how was it decided that it was no longer to be classified as a pandemic and who made that decision?
Such questions seem especially relevant because, in the U.S. at any rate, many government authorities appear to operating under the assumption that the pandemic has come to an end here. For instance, Governor Cuomo has announced that vaccinated people are no longer required to wear facemasks in the state of New York, indoors as well as outdoors. How businesses are to enforce this policy has not been specified. There is no way to verify unequivocally whether anyone has been vaccinated or not. At this point we have no national database that registers the names of those who have been vaccinated (presumably individual states have their own databases, but that is not to be relied upon) and vaccine cards are easy to forge. New Yorkers can use the New York State Excelsior Pass smartphone app to prove their vaccination status, but those who do not have smartphones and those who are out of state will have to use other means. If patrons and customers merely assert that they have been vaccinated, how is any business to deny them? New York’s vaccination rate is somewhat higher than the national average; but, even so, only 43% of its population has been fully vaccinated. Masks are still required in certain settings, such as nursing homes, medical facilities, public transportation, airports, schools, homeless shelters, and correctional facilities. But business such as retail stores and restaurants are on their own with regard to verifying customers’ vaccine status.
How states manage to implement the new CDC guidelines is up to the individual state government; but I think any declaration of victory over the pandemic is premature. All of the 50 states have reported a decline in COVID cases for the first time since the pandemic began, but we are still getting tens of thousands of new cases every day. Deaths are now numbering in the hundreds rather than in the thousands, but their number is still far from trivial. Less than half of our adult population has been fully vaccinated, although it is true that just under 60% have received at least one dose.
I have already noted that the virus is more virulent in various other nations. There is, however, some slightly encouraging news from India. Case rates appear to have reached a plateau and are beginning to decline. Mumbai, which previously peaked at a rate of 11,000 daily cases, is now seeing fewer than 2,000 a day. Some hospitals are seeing less demand than before, in isolated instances with a reduction of as much as 30%-40%. The nation as a whole still has more than 3½ million patients and it is not certain the extent to which COVID is still ravaging the rural communities, where testing is only sporadically available. Stadiums have been converted into COVID hospitals and the nation is still scrambling to obtain a sufficient supply of oxygen tanks, but the outlook is marginally better than before.
In the midst of all of this, the tasks of daily life obtrude – including, for today, that of bread-making. An odd little unexpected consequence of the pandemic is my introduction to the technique of baking the bread in a pre-heated Dutch oven, covered for the first 20 minutes and then uncovered for the remainder of the baking time. The action of the steam condensing gives the loaf a thick crunchy crust that I’ve never been able to obtain through the more traditional method of shaping loaves and placing them on baking sheets. I found out about this method during the flurry of bread recipes that were exchanged over the Internet in the early months of the pandemic, when bakeries and grocery stores often were short of supplies. I tend to buy bread less frequently now that I am able to make loaves just as good as I’m able to find in specialty bakeries, and at a fraction of the cost.
Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 164,254,792; # of deaths worldwide: 3,403,708; # of cases U.S.: 33,744,843; # of deaths; U.S.: 600,507.