Morning statistics – Food for a week – China’s data suspect – Unreliability of the WHO – A sad loss – Local excursion – National parks – Appalachian Trail – Evening statistics
Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 5,011,361; # of deaths worldwide: 325,454; # of cases U.S.: 1,571,131; # of deaths U.S.: 93,558. Cambodia, of all places, has been reporting no new cases for several days. Its last patient being treated for the virus was discharged from the hospital, which means that it has no active cases. It remains vigilant, however: no easing of the restrictions on school closures and border entry. Anyone who travels to the country must carry an approved certificate stating that he is free from the virus; and even then he is required to quarantine himself for 14 days after arriving in the country. Gatherings in large groups are still discouraged.
I got up early today and could not go back to sleep, so I spent the hours of dawn doing laundry and going out for grocery shopping. I drove to the local Safeway instead of walking there, contrary to my usual habit. I have not been in a grocery store for over a week and I knew that I would have to purchase more than I could carry.
After all of the reassuring news from China, it has done an abrupt reversal and announced that the Jilin province, which contains about 27 million people, may be forced into a lockdown as a result of a new spike in virus cases. This news, of course, casts doubts on the numbers that they have been reporting over the past several weeks. Even now they claim to have only 87 active cases left, but in light of the recent report this figure cannot be trusted. The WHO is also a co-conspirator; it has excluded Taiwan from participating in the World Health Assembly at China’s insistence – as if the virus heeds political distinctions. China may regard Taiwan simply as a rebel province, but there is no reason that the WHO should follow suit. Much as I hate to credit Trump for doing anything sensible, his hard-line attitude towards the WHO may not be a bad idea; if it puts political considerations over those of world health, it is unfit for its designated role. This policy of fawning on China could easily help to promote a second wave of the virus.
We have had another loss among the health care workers. Dr. James Mahoney, 62, purposely delayed his retirement when the virus came to New York City, to continue leading the Intensive Care Units at King’s County Hospital and SUNY Downstate. He had worked frontline during the 9/11 attacks and the AIDS epidemic, and was known for his constant concern for patients. He came down with fever during the second week of April, but continued consulting with patients while isolating at home. Dr. Mahoney began to have difficulty breathing and could barely walk when he was admitted to the hospital April 20th. He died on the 27th. When our attention is occupied by politicians and pastors and corporate executives scrambling for all that they can get out of this crisis, it is easy to overlook heroes such as this man, who quietly and unobtrusively risked his life daily in order to minister to others.
It was cloudy today, not as dreary as Monday but a bit more oppressive than it was yesterday. It was cool and windy as well, never getting above 60 degrees. It was not an especially bad sort of day, but it is a bit unexpected for the second half of May. I did not wish to drive, so I walked locally. But I went along some dirt paths I had not covered before – the city has been carving out new ones to make the area more pedestrian-friendly – and it was the perfect time of year to stroll past people’s gardens, now in the peak of their bloom. I also went by two shopping areas that are under construction. The old areas that they occupied were rather rundown and the buildings were unattractive; these have been torn down and new ones are being built. I’m not sure, however, how quickly the shops will fill up once the construction is complete. We already have several empty retail buildings scattered among the shopping areas of the city, and the economic climate is not going to be favorable for new businesses in the months to come. When I began the walk I was a bit discouraged by the weather, but eventually I got into stride and ended up walking about eight miles or so. Later in the day, though, it cleared up considerably and became warmer, so I went out again. I felt that I might as well enjoy it while I can. Tomorrow is supposed to be rather gray again and the next two days will be wet.
Many national parks have been re-opened. Yellowstone opened its gates yesterday, although it is still not allowing overnight lodging or camping within the park boundaries. Visitors have entered the park in shoals and, apparently, hardly any of them wore masks. Shenandoah remains closed, with no date set for re-opening. The Appalachian Trail Conservancy has relaxed its guidelines slightly. It still prefers people to avoid the trail altogether, but it has resigned itself to the inevitable; it simply is not possible to prevent people from accessing a trail nearly 2,200 miles in length. It now says that people may hike the trail if they have no symptoms of the disease, are not planning to hike in an area where the AT is closed, and have the appropriate protective gear (masks and sanitizer). The ATC wants hikers to 1) stay local, so that they won’t have to stop for gas or meals anywhere; 2) not use privies, shelters, or picnic tables, since their surfaces may harbor the virus; 3) hike in groups of six or less. Through-hikers have been asked to postpone their plans. Staying in local communities is impossible and requires frequent stops in towns for resupply and shuttles to/from communities, creating multiple opportunities for contracting or spreading the virus. Hikers planning to stay anywhere overnight must carry their own tents instead of using shelters.
Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 5,082,083; # of deaths worldwide: 332,233; # of cases U.S.: 1,591,415; # of deaths U.S.: 94,933. Brazil has registered over 20,000 cases in one day and as a result is now well ahead of Spain, placing it in third place of nations with highest case count. It may overtake Russia as well later this week. The mayor of Sao Paulo says that the city’s health care system could collapse in two weeks. Many nurses have already died from the virus. Russia’s numbers are beginning to stabilize. Restrictions are beginning to be lifted, but cautiously.