Morning statistics – End of Ramadan – Eid al-Fitr – Ending the stay-at-home orders – Shenandoah National Park – Warm weather at last – A productive day – Re-opening of local parks – Culinary pleasures – Brazil is the country of the future, and always will be – Evening statistics
Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 5,329,722; # of deaths worldwide: 340,537; # of cases U.S.: 1,645,646; # of deaths U.S.: 97,663. There is a kind of seesawing between Russia and Brazil at this point. Russia’s case count has shot up again, inching it over Brazil’s. That will change again by the end of the day. There is one mitigating factor for Brazil and for Latin America generally: the average age of the population is considerably lower than that of Europe or the U.S. Younger people have more resistance against the disease, which means that the mortality rate should be lower. But that won’t do much good if the case count continues to multiply the way it is currently doing. The African nations are doing much better in containing the disease. South Africa has the highest case count of the African countries, and it is only 35th on the list, with barely over 20,000 cases, and its number of active cases is already beginning to decline.
Ramadan ends at sunset today, and tomorrow will begin Eid al-Fitr, the three-day holiday that marks the breaking of the month-long fast. Usually this festival is marked by going to mosques to pray together and to greet friends there, as well as parties (frequently quite lavish ones) with a great deal of feasting. Attention is focused on children, who usually get gifts of new clothes, shoes, and cash, so naturally they look forward to the holiday for the greater part of the year. As with the Easter and Passover celebrations, all of this will have to be modified. The holiday will be something of a test for the countries with Muslim majorities as to how they are handling the pandemic; but in general they seem to be acting much more prudently than the predominantly Christian ones. The Hajj begins on July 28th, but Saudi Arabia has not yet ruled out canceling it – which is quite a sacrifice, considering that the influx of visitors to the Hajj accounts for 5% of its GNP.
Dr. Fauci announced that it is now time for the stay-at-home orders to lift and that prolonging them to undue length can do as much damage as ending them too soon. States have been easing the restrictions, for the most part gradually. Today Shenandoah National Park has re-opened to a certain extent. Hikes must begin from Skyline Drive; parking is still shut off from the boundary trailheads. Old Rag and its associated trails, and the Whiteoak Canyon/Cedar Run loop with its associated trails are still off-limits. All other facilities, including visitor centers, picnic areas, campgrounds, lodges, gift shops, and restaurants are closed. But all trails except the ones mentioned above and all overlooks are open.
The forecast for today couldn’t have been more mistaken. The rain passed away yesterday and the temperature rose, making today the first really warm day for about two months. I wished to mow the lawn but the grass was too wet in the morning for that. So I went to the Workhouse art studio complex, picked up the Cross-County Trail from there, went south to Occoquan Regional Park and went on the loop around there, went north to Laurel Hill Park, did the loop around Giles Run, and then returned to the Workhouse – perhaps nine miles in all. There is a great deal of vetch in the area; from its purple color and smooth stem, as well as its proximity to land that once belonged to a farm, my guess is that it is cow vetch. After I returned home and had lunched, I mixed the ingredients for a lamb and lentil stew, put it on low heat to simmer gently, mowed the lawn, took the stew off of the heat, and refreshed the sourdough starter that had been in the refrigerator for several days and was starting to separate. Not an exceptionally busy day, but a reasonably productive one.
People are becoming less cautious. I wore a mask while I was in Occoquan Regional, which I knew would have several visitors; but I was one of the few who did. And when I left the park I took off my mask as well. I encountered hardly anyone during the remainder of my route. For local walking I still am wearing the mask continually.
Many local parks are open now. The parking area at Occoquan Regional had several cars and I saw as I drove past it that Burke Lake is open. That means that all of the ingenious routes I worked out to circumvent the entrance closures are unnecessary now. But every silver lining has its cloud.
Making a stew is satisfying. One is not bound to a specific recipe but can toss in as many different vegetables and roots as he likes, as well as any combination of herbs, and it can provide a balance of protein, starch, and carbohydrates in a single dish, making it sufficient for an entire meal. It’s economical as well. I used a pound of meat for the stew, and I will have enough dinner for three days, perhaps even four.
“When the biggest science denier in the country is the president himself, what can we scientists do?” This remark may sound like another complaint against Donald Trump but it actually comes from Brazil. Brazil’s case count has surpassed Russia’s again. The disease is sweeping the favelas, which account for more than eleven million people. In Rio de Janeiro alone they comprise nearly one-quarter of the population. It seems almost frivolous to recommend social distancing in areas where the population density is about 100,000 per square kilometer. The only way people in these areas can quarantine themselves from their neighbors is vertically. One person who experienced difficulty in breathing, expired in one of these neighborhoods and his body lay in the sidewalk for 30 hours. Someone placed a sheet over the corpse and arranged traffic cones around the body so that people wouldn’t trip over it – such a touching display of thoughtfulness – but no one could be bothered to take charge. The city ambulance service said that its responsibilities did not include the removal of corpses. The police said that they could interfere only for criminal cases. It’s like the Russian joke about the police’s response to a man who complained of being threatened with murder: “Threats do not concern us. If he kills you, come and tell us.” Finally some relatives contacted a funeral home that was willing to undertake the removal. In addition, there are 900,000 indigenous people who are dying off at an alarming rate. Few of them have access to hospitals or health care of any kind.
Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 5,401,222; # of deaths worldwide: 343,799; # of cases U.S.: 1,666,828; # of deaths U.S.: 98,683. Brazil officially has about 20% of our case count and slightly over that for its death toll. If the estimates of its under-reporting are correct, it has already exceeded the U.S., possibly having two or even three times as many cases.