How pandemics wind down – Encouraging news from the CDC – Hiking up to Kennedy Peak – Evening statistics
I recently speculated on how pandemics come to an end and in particular how this one will be considered to be over and done with. To some extent this question was rhetorical, but I may soon obtain an answer all the same.
In a general sense, all pandemics come to an end because the pathogen stops spreading after a certain portion of the population acquires immunity, either through infection followed by recovery or through immunization. Our immune systems learn enough about the virus to fend off the deadliest manifestations of infection, at least most of the time. Instead of causing waves of devastating illness, over time the viruses come to trigger small surges of milder illness: “endemic,” as they are then termed. The influenza that caused the devastating pandemic of 1918, for instance, has over time become seasonal flu. This transition of COVID from pandemic to endemic could come about fairly soon in our own country, in which a large percentage of the population has acquired immunity either through successfully overcoming the viral infection or through the vaccines. About 128 million adult Americans (nearly half of the adult population) are fully vaccinated and about 27 million Americans have been infected and subsequently recovered (the others have either succumbed to the disease or are active cases). There is some overlap between these two categories, but at this stage it seems likely that, in very approximate terms, close to 60% of the adult American population has acquired immunity. An additional 30 million adults have received one dose and it seems likely that they will eventually receive their second dose, which will increase this figure to 70% or more. And although the pace of vaccinations with regard to people getting a first dose has declined, it is still ongoing. The CDC has said that the end is “in sight”; Dr. Walensky is “cautiously optimistic.” The figures bear out this stance. Infections and deaths continue to decline in this country. The total of new infections today was under 15,000; the number of deaths was well under 300. Even in India the pace of daily new infections and deaths is steadily declining.
This issue came up during the hike I led today for assisting hike leaders in the Capital Hiking Club to get re-acquainted with the trails in case their skills have grown rusty during the past several months. Two of the participants are medical professionals and they say that all COVID-related restrictions may be lifted in as short a time as a few weeks – that the CHC goal of resuming bus hikes in early August is not only feasible but may even be on the conservative side.
The hike in question ascended via the Stephens Trail to the Massanutten Trail, and from there to Kennedy Peak. The deck at the top of the fire tower at the summit affords 360-degree views of the area, which includes the Shenandoah River valley (where the river bends into numerous “oxbows” as it wends its way through the meadows) and the Blue Ridge Mountains to the east. Mountain laurel, which had barely begun to bud in the area of Shenandoah National Park that I visited yesterday, was in full bloom on much of the Stephens Trail, in some places reaching its peak. The delicacy of the hue and texture of its petals is unsurpassed, particularly on a day like this one, with blazing sunlight pouring down from a nearly cloudless sky. We then descended down the Massanutten Trail back to the parking area to complete the circuit: about 9 miles and nearly 1600 feet of elevation gain. The temperature was in the mid-to-high 80s, but the atmosphere was not unduly humid and much of the hike was well-shaded, making it a good deal less uncomfortable than I feared it might be.
Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 167,505,058; # of deaths worldwide: 3,477,721; # of cases U.S.: 33,895,903; # of deaths; U.S.: 603,862.