Morning statistics – Unreliable CDC data – Memorial Day – Eid al-Fitr – Lockdown easing in Europe – Fairfax City pending the release of the stay-at-home order – Evening statistics
Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 5,429,234; # of deaths worldwide: 344,488; # of cases U.S.: 1,667,284; # of deaths U.S.: 98,691. The U.S. at this point has nearly 40% of the active cases worldwide. We have joined that undesirably exclusive club of nations whose case incidence is more than 0.5%, or one in two thousand, Spain and Singapore being the two others, as well as various microstates (San Marino, Qatar, Andorra, Luxembourg, Mayotte, Bahrain, and Iceland).
For all of the criticism directed at data collection from other countries, and from third-world countries in particular, our home-grown data collection may not be very reliable either. Recently it has been reported that the CDC has been conflating the results from the viral tests and the results from the antibody tests. A negative result has a different meaning for each test. Anyone who gets a negative result from the viral test is not currently infected with COVID-19; anyone who gets a negative test result from the antibody test has probably never been infected. In addition, the antibody tests tend to be less accurate on an individual level. The skewed metrics that result are more than simply a theoretical error; state governors have been using them to determine their policies for re-opening guidelines. At the very least the CDC has been over-stating our ability to test people who are sick with COVID-19. The results from the antibody test drive down the positive rate, which means that our nation’s case count may be under-reported as badly as many other countries.
It’s Memorial Day weekend, and many beaches, boardwalks, and other attractions are just as crowded as they might be any other year. Some restrictions are still being enforced in this area. The Memorial Day Parade through DC has been canceled, and the Memorial Day Concert is available through livestream only. The Rolling Thunder event has been canceled, although a few thousand riders have been rolling through anyway. Many of the motorcycle drivers who would ordinarily be here are restricting themselves to riding through their local communities instead. Arlington Cemetery is allowing pass holders only to enter its grounds. DC remains a “hot spot” as other areas are showing declining rates of infection; the number of new cases each day is sporadic, sometimes going up, sometimes going down.
Today is the first day of Eid al-Fitr as well. Many Muslims are spending this day under strict stay-at-home orders. It’s a melancholy way of celebrating what is usually the most joyous of holidays. In Turkey a lockdown has been imposed for the entire weekend. Saudi Arabia and Egypt, two of the Mideast region’s nations hit hardest by the virus, have implemented overnight curfews. Mosque services have been canceled in many countries, and homes are confining their festivities to immediate family members only. Not all of the countries with Muslim majorities are showing such restraint. In Amman, Jordan, queues of people swarmed the bakeries and nut retailers (sweetmeats and nuts are used in large amounts for the usual festivities) as if the virus did not exist. Mosques have been closed in Iran, but prayers are allowed just outside the mosque buildings, provided that social distancing guidelines are observed. Pakistan has recently lifted various lockdown restrictions and has only the usual guidelines; no special precautions are being enforced. Worshippers in countries such as Sudan, Indonesia, Afghanistan, and Israel have been congregating in crowded mosques without any regard for the guidelines for social distancing. It must be added that the incidence rate in all of these countries is relatively low.
Lockdown restrictions are gradually being lifted in various European countries. The details are too numerous to be listed here, but in general terms: border controls have been relaxed, shops have been allowed to re-open, people may attend funerals (but only 15 for any single interment), visitors are permitted to go to beaches, social visits to other households are permitted, restaurants under certain conditions can allow dining again, some museums are now accessible, religious services are no longer livescreen only.
It will be a few days still before similar restrictions are lifted here. I went through downtown Fairfax today, and it had surprisingly few people for a weekend, and especially for a Memorial Day weekend. Restaurants still are not allowed to have diners on the premises but the take-out places (Subway, Potbelly, etc.) are operating on more or less the same basis as before. Still – the city under ordinary circumstances would be bustling at this time of year.
Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 5,497,650; # of deaths worldwide: 346,675; # of cases U.S.: 1,686,436; # of deaths U.S.: 99,300. Brazil’s case count continues to go up even relative to our own. President Trump has banned travel from Brazil into the U.S., and although I do not in general share his opinions, in this case I find myself in the disagreeable position of approving his decision.