Morning statistics – Increased activity of birds – Prognostics of economic depression – Possible after-effects of the virus – A social visit – Working on the blog – Evening statistics
Today’s statistics as of 9:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 5,715,075; # of deaths worldwide: 352,901; # of cases U.S.: 1,727,686; # of deaths U.S.: 100,625.
It is another beautiful day. I do not know whether I am imagining it, but it seems to me that the birds have been more active than usual this year. Every time I have gone out for the past two months I have heard them singing vigorously. During yesterday’s hike they are especially vociferous. Perhaps I am simply more attuned to them because there is less traffic noise outside.
The DOW opens today after the Memorial Day Weekend. MC, who is an investment counselor, says that the market is over-valued and has been over-valued for a long time. I asked about the effects of the economic activity that will occur once all lockdown restrictions have been lifted. I was doubtful that all of the jobs that have placed on hiatus were recoverable. He said that 85% recovery is an optimistic estimate, and even at that we would be headed for a significant recession, worse than the one in 2008. The stock market appears to be betting heavily on the discovery of a vaccine, but even if we get one several jobs simply are going to disappear, particularly in the service industries.
It is interesting to speculate on the long-term effects of the lockdown. Now that tele-commuting has been in effect for several weeks, it will become more common in firms that previously relied on employees coming in person to office buildings. Industries such as legal consultation, investment firms, information technology, and so on, will continue to use to a greater extent than before. This practice in turn may have a beneficial impact on traffic, which has been a steadily growing problem in many cities. Air travel, on the other hand, may become more difficult. Various local carriers will have a difficult time recovering from the long hiatus of people travel both for business and for pleasure. Services to mid-sized cities such as Sacramento, Birmingham, Cedar Rapids, Syracuse, etc., will probably diminish.
I visited my friends DC and JC again today. Sometimes when I look at the newspaper articles and compare them with my own life it appears to me as if I’m living in a completely different world. I suppose sordid behavior makes for more exciting journalism than good nature, upright character, and vigorous intelligence do but – even so. The friends I have managed to acquire seem to me light years away from the squalid avarice and impenetrable arrogance of our so-called leaders. This is not merely my own assessment. When my relatives met some of those who showed up at my father’s funeral they exclaimed to me afterwards, “What nice friends you have!” How I managed to be so fortunate in this respect I do not know. The manner in which we spent the afternoon together might not seem very exciting to an outsider, and yet it was extremely pleasurable. I brought along some brownies made with almond flour – it’s been a long time since I’ve had the opportunity to bake for anyone; we chatted over some tea JC obtained from Taiwan (her home country); we went into the garden, where JC showed me how the bamboo shoots were coming up – she provided me with some before I left; DC and I strolled about together; we dwelt on various memories of the past and also on hopes about the eventual lifting of the restrictions and the restoration to normality. After that I simply was not in the mood to scan the Internet for news after I returned home.
I am trying to post these notes onto a blog but I’ve been having trouble with the blog software; so DC, who has worked with blogs himself, gave me some pointers about the issues that were giving me trouble. I will be working on these tomorrow and I hope to have my blog ready for viewing some time tomorrow. It’s supposed to rain off and on, so it should be a good day for working on setting the blog up.
Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 5,788,312; # of deaths worldwide: 357,406; # of cases U.S.: 1,745,803; # of deaths U.S.: 102,107.