Morning statistics – Brazil begins to unravel – Hiking in Leesylvania – Checking in with my aunt – Dana White’s reassurances – Shrinkage of the middle class – Difference of V-Day celebrations between Russia and Belarus – Evening statistics
Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 4,032,763; # of deaths worldwide: 276,677; # of cases U.S.: 1,322,164; # of deaths U.S.: 78,616. The incidence rate in both Russia and Brazil continues to accelerate. The total number of deaths is Russia is now barely lagging behind that of the U.K. and Italy. At this rate it will overtake both nations in two or three days. The Faeroe Islands, the Falkland Islands, and Papua New Guinea have joined that exclusive group of territories now free of the virus (everyone who has contracted it has since recovered). Papua New Guinea has a population of about 9,000,000, which makes it the first entity that is not a microstate that has rid itself of the virus. That is good news, because the medical care system in that nation is so rudimentary that the virus had the potential of doing a great deal of damage. Belize and Suriname have no active cases at the moment, but because they share borders with countries with active cases they are not considered free of the virus yet. The number of active cases in New Zealand is down to 103 and only two of these are considered severe. Taiwan has 73 active cases, none of them severe. Australia has 697 active cases, 19 of which are severe. Vietnam has 47 cases, 8 of which are severe; up to this point it has had no deaths from the virus – and this result, it bears repeating, in a country that borders China. China claims to have only 208 active cases, 15 of them severe.
Brazil has the highest rate of transmission of any major country: anyone there who has contracted the virus infects three others on the average. In contrast, the average reproduction rate in Germany is 0.8. The virus is now ravaging Sao Paolo. Mass burial sites are being carved out on the edge of the city’s residential neighborhoods. The official count of virus infections places Brazil eighth on the list of total number of cases; if the estimates of under-reporting are correct, it is in reality second only to the U.S. or possibly even claiming the sorry distinction of first place.
I went along the Potomac Heritage Trail just outside of Leesylvania State Park today. This hike is one whose route I devised during my last year as Director of Trails for the Wanderbirds. The club members enjoyed it very much, even though in one respect it did not turn out as I had hoped. At that time the Neabsco Creek Boardwalk was scheduled to be completed and available by the date for which I had placed the hike into the club schedule. The ribbon-cutting ceremony for the Boardwalk, however, had to be postponed. Even after that time, there was an area for about 500-600 feet at the south end of the Boardwalk where the trail was not complete. The only way to get from where the trail petered out to the end of the Boardwalk was to bushwhack – and that area is not good for bushwhacking, being covered with brambles and boggy to the extent that the suction from the mud is capable of pulling boots off of one’s feet. The section that continued towards Leesylvania went through a wetlands area and would get very muddy and slippery after even a mild rainfall. I knew that work had been done on the trail since I last visited it, and I wanted to see if any progress had been made. It turns out that the trail is now in excellent condition. An elevated walk has been placed over the bog and there are many wooden planks to aid hikers getting through the muddier portions of the wetlands. It is now possible to hike continuously from Rippon Landing (the north end of the Boardwalk) to Leesylvania. The Boardwalk has been closed on account of the lockdown restrictions but once it is re-opened it will be possible to do the hike route that I had originally intended.
Leesylvania itself is now open, as is the case with most of the Virginia state parks, and so I went along the route I had done with the club in the past. It is a loop of about nine miles, but the various excursions I made at the two endpoints of the Boardwalk brought the total distance that I covered today closer to twelve. The park itself is on a small peninsula defined by two streams that drain into the Potomac River: Neabsco Creek at the north edge and Powell Creek at the south. The Potomac in this area is considerably broader than it is closer to Washington, continually widening as it approaches the Chesapeake Bay. Not only does it provide many lovely vistas of both streams and of the Potomac itself, but it is of considerable historical interest. The Lee and the Fairfax families, both of whom played a large role in shaping the history of Virginia, had estates on the site that the park now occupies. The various facilities were closed but people were allowed to visit as long as they confined themselves to fishing in the river or walking on the trails. The restrooms were closed, of course; but to my surprise the porta-potties were available to all comers. But I did not venture into any of those; that was too much of a risk for my liking.
It was cold this morning, a little over 40 degrees (5 degrees Celcius) and I was grizzling a bit about the unseasonable weather for this time of year. But about half-an-hour into the hike the temperature rose by a few degrees, with sunlight pouring down from a nearly cloudless sky, and I actually felt to the need to take off a layer of clothing. Later still it became cloudier and windy; by the time I returned home it had become chilly again. It is supposed to be warmer tomorrow and by Thursday or so we should be having temperatures closer to the average.
I called my aunt when I returned. She is keeping her spirits up, although the enforced solitude must be more difficult for her than it is for me. We sent some photographs to each other, with me sending her photos from recent hikes and she sending me photos of relatives and also of New York City in its current state. The streets are strangely empty, so different from the city I remember from numerous visits.
Americans have been suffering from a lack of professional sports activities since, unlike the inhabitants of Belarus, people here are not yet prepared to crowd themselves into stadiums. However, the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) has organized a fight between Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje, who will battle for the interim lightweight championship on Saturday. It will be streamed on ESPN. In the words of UFC president Dana White, “Ferguson vs. Gaethje will be one of the most violent fights you’ll ever see, I can guarantee that.” I’ve no doubt that such an assurance must be a gratification to sports fans all over the country and that people will tune in by the thousands to witness so pleasing an event.
Our middle class is shrinking as a result of the impact of the virus on the economy. Many Americans live from paycheck to paycheck, and they are ill-prepared to meet a period of prolonged unemployment. Last year a Federal Reserve report warned that nearly 40% of American workers could not come up with as little as $400 for an emergency. Not all of the people who were laid off during the lockdown will necessarily be able to find work again once the lockdown restrictions are completely eliminated, and in any case that will be a matter of several weeks, even months. In the meantime that monthly payment for rent or mortgage, which I discoursed upon earlier, will not go away. Many homes have already been placed for sale on the market. We are relatively fortunate in the DC Metro area, where so many jobs are Government-related and thus have a higher proportion that is considered essential.
Russia celebrated V-Day today, but the celebrations were muted. Hardly anyone was in the streets of St. Petersburg or Moscow. The only military display was a flyover of central Moscow by 75 warplanes and helicopters. Just across the border, the Belarussians turned out in tens of thousands in Minsk to watch a parade of 3,000 soldiers. Few of the spectators were wearing masks, and none were practicing social distancing.
Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 4,098,092; # of deaths worldwide: 280,223; # of cases U.S.: 1,347,125; # of deaths U.S.: 80,036.