Meandering in Rock Creek Park – Hiking and mental health – Going along the Dickey Ridge Trail, including the Dickey Hill overlook – The emerging omicron variant – Obstacles to our entering the endemic stage – Evening statistics
I went yesterday with JK to Rock Creek Park, starting from Peirce Mill to take an 11-mile circuit via the Valley Trail to the Boundary Bridge and returning by the Western Ridge Trail. I had not done this hike for nearly a year, but I remembered the directions and turnings very well; it has been a standard hiking route for numerous hiking clubs, particularly during the Christmas season. I have already remarked on one of the numerous advantages of living in the DC Metro area is being in close proximity to a park of this description: throughout much of the hike one goes along the stream with hardly any dwellings or stores in sight. The footpaths are extensive: this particular hike takes in only about one-third of the total mileage of the park’s hiking trails. Nor do the park hikes skimp on elevation gain; the trails meander over numerous hills and although the ascents are not very long they accumulate over distance. The total elevation gain for today’s hike was about 1700 feet. When we started from the parking area the sky was gray and overcast, but from the moment that we started the sky began to clear and we walked in sunlight for much of the morning. It was cooler than the Thanksgiving Day and windy as well, blustery at times but invigorating. Initially we encountered few people, on account of starting early. Later on, however, we encountered many other hikers, including three friends from the Capital Hiking Club doing a hike of their own. Even so, JK said that the trails were much more crowded yesterday.
JK, who is considerably younger than I am, is still working and during the hike we discussed how hiking generally can act as a restorative to counteract the frustrations that accumulate during working hours – what I call “clearing away the office cobwebs.” When I worked at Northrop Grumman I made it a habit of taking a walk of a couple of miles during my lunch hour. My colleagues were somewhat nonplussed when I adhered to this practice even when the weather was cold or sultry or damp, but in the end they came to look upon it as a kind of institution.
On a few occasions some of them would accompany me on my route, but I cannot say that I won many adherents to the habit of periodic walking. I was glad to see that today, at least, so many people were using the trails to advantage and that several families were taking young children along. American children in general do not walk a great deal and they receive little encouragement to do so, either by the schools or the groups that organize their extra-curricular activities.
Today I went with AD and RH along the Dickey Ridge Trail in Shenandoah National Park, going from the Visitor Center to the northern terminus and back, with an additional loop that took in Fox Hollow, Snead Farm, and the Dickey Hill overlook. The overlook, which I have visited many times, contains expansive views of the Browntown Valley bordered by the Massanuttens, with a glimpse of the Alleghenies further to the west. It was somewhat chilly but very dry, and the color of the sky was intensely clear and blue. The climbs were only moderately steep, but they amounted to 2500 feet of elevation gain in all.
AD is on the board for the Wanderbirds and since I am on the board for Capital Hiking Club it was natural that we fell into discussion about possible dates for the resumption of bus hikes, as well as the plans for continuing hikes during the interval before we can use buses again. The emergence of the omicron variant, as may be imagined, has complicated matters. Formerly it appeared that we would be able to have bus hikes early in 2022. There is undoubtedly a demand for them. But the new variant is certainly troubling. At this point it is unknown whether the vaccines, even when fortified by the booster, will be effective against it. Viruses mutate continually, which means that new variants will emerge even when the disease enters the endemic stage – as we see now with influenza, for instance. The question is whether this one will prove to be as contagious and as deadly as the delta variant or whether it will eventually subside.
The reluctance of a certain portion of Americans to get vaccinated is another factor. At this point about 58% of the national population is vaccinated. It has been estimated that to bring the virus under control, our immunity rate must reach 80% or even as much as 90%. Our immunity rate for measles, for instance, is 95%. Even now there are sporadic outbreaks of this disease, but they are outbreaks against a background of almost no cases or scattered endemic cases. At this point the daily rate of COVID vaccinations is barely over 10,000 across the entire nation, which indicates that we will not be achieving immunity very soon.
Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 260,858,293; # of deaths worldwide: 5,205,888; # of cases U.S.: 49,050,408; # of deaths; U.S.: 799,137.
Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 261,352,467; # of deaths worldwide: 5,211,922; # of cases U.S.: 49,077,695; # of deaths; U.S.: 799,312.