October 27, 2020

Hiking in the area of Harper’s Ferry – Mileage for the year – Finding one’s “comfort zone” – The energy of Donald Trump – Unreliability of polls – Evening statistics

I went with the Vigorous Hikers on a hike similar to the one we did on March 31^st, starting at the School Ridge along Bakerton Road.  The difference is that the pedestrian bridge over the Potomac had been closed earlier as a result of a train accident that caused so much damage as to render the bridge unusable, whereas it is fixed now.  We were thus able to go today from School Ridge to the Maryland side of the Potomac and then ascend Maryland Heights via a little-used route that approaches the overlook from the south.  After that we went up to the Stone Fort and descended down to Harper’s Ferry, where we took the Appalachian Trail through the town, cut across to another trail alongside the Shenandoah that eventually led to the Visitor Center, and then back to our parking area via Bolivar Heights.  The forecast had been for a rather cloudy and cool day, but it was a beautiful day in our area, quite sunny and relatively warm.  The views from Maryland Heights in particular were exceptionally clear.  I have not seen the overlook with so few people before.  Normally it is fairly crowded, even on weekdays.  However, it is now fairly late in the season, and fewer people are hiking as a result. 

The hike was 15½ miles, bringing the total amount of mileage hiked on the trails for the year to over 1700.  At this rate it looks like I will be logging in about 2,000 miles by the end of the year.  I hiked just under 1750 miles last year, which gives some indication of the rate of increase in hiking that resulted from the impact of the virus placing restrictions on so many other activities.

The hike on March 31^st was the first one in which I participated after various lockdown restrictions were issued, and I felt rather nervous then about traveling across state lines to meet with others for the purposes of hiking together.  The restrictions for out of doors for recreational purposes were rather vague, and at that point in time – it seems so long ago now – no one was certain about how exactly the restrictions would be enforced.  Now any such restrictions have been removed and I’ve been hiking with others so often that it causes no uneasiness at this point.  Such activities may show a bit of over-confidence, but it seems that out-of-door activity with others is much less likely to lead to infection than indoor gatherings – though of course the potential for catching the virus in this way is always present.  As one member of the group said, “Everyone has to work out his own comfort zone.”  I wear a mask while walking on the streets and entering stores, such social gatherings that I have attended have been with only a few others (never any with more than eight people) and for the most part out of doors, and social activity in general has been greatly reduced.  On the other side, I still do my own shopping rather than relying on deliveries and I go out hiking with others periodically.  I suppose I am pretty much middle-of-the-road as far as taking precautions against the virus is concerned.

I’ve been fluctuating about the prospects of the election results.  Much as I hate to admit it, Donald Trump is certainly energetic.  Despite having been ill so recently, he has taken on a grueling campaign schedule, organizing rallies in state after state, and speaking well over an hour on end at every single one of them.  Perhaps I should not be surprised; he has a great deal at stake.  If he does not secure office again, several lawsuits are pending– including at least one for attempted rape (!) – and their adjudications await him.  Without his high position to protect him, he can anticipate the loss of a great deal of money and even a possible term in prison.  

In the Icelandic saga of Njal, the eponymous character at one point notices a stranger in his household and he asks his wife who this new man is.  “He is one of your servants,” she replies, “I engaged him because he claimed to be ready with his hands.”  Njal guesses that his wife hired the man to do some unsavory task (specifically, to avenge the murder of one servant by stabbing the perpetrator), but his only comment is:  “His work will have vigor enough.  I’m not so sure of its value.”  That is perhaps as good a summation as any of my own opinion about our President’s recent activities.

Also, I have read a rather depressing interview with an experienced pollster who said, in effect, that the polls cannot be trusted.  When Hillary Clinton described those who voted for Trump in the 2016 election as “deplorables,” she unwittingly sowed the seeds of her own defeat.  Many people interviewed by poll-takers were reluctant to identify themselves with such a label, which had been taken up vigorously by several media outlets, and indicated that they would be voting for Clinton while resolving in secret to vote for her opponent.  As a result the poll results were misleading, giving Clinton a false level of confidence.  Biden, to be sure, is showing much less reliance on the polls than Clinton did and he does not personally denigrate those who vote for Trump; but his followers have no such restraint, and their frequent assertions that voters for Biden are better than voters for Trump both on moral and on intellectual grounds have resulted in the same evasive behavior by voters being interviewed by poll-takers. 

I admit to being somewhat perplexed myself by those who continue to support Trump, particularly in view of the daily statistics:

# of cases worldwide: 44,230,185; # of deaths worldwide: 1,171,188; # of cases U.S.: 9,034,338; # of deaths U.S.: 232,017.  Another day with over 70,000 new cases and nearly 1,000 deaths.  Our case count is now over 9 million, something over 20% of the COVID cases worldwide.  This figure is less disproportionate than it was some months ago, but it is still is a regrettable result for a country with 4% of the world’s population.  Our mortality rate is about 2.56%, slightly under that of 2.64% worldwide.  Even with our slightly lower mortality rate, our nation accounts for 19.8% of the deaths globally resulting from COVID.