Journal of the Plague Year, COVID-19 Version

Uproar in Fairfax County – Canada announces re-opening of borders – Travel difficulties in the West – Burnout among health care workers – Evening statistics

The Fairfax County school system has been featured in national headlines, for somewhat unfortunate reasons.  Michelle Leete, the Vice President of Training for the Virginia Parent Teacher Association and Vice President of Communications for the Fairfax County PTA, responded to parents who opposed the teaching of critical race theory with the following remarks:  “Let’s deny this off-key band of people that are anti-education, anti-teacher, anti-equity, anti-history, anti-racial reckoning, anti-opportunities, anti-help people, anti-diversity, anti-platform, anti-science, anti-change agent, anti-social justice, anti-health care, anti-worker, anti-LGBTQ+, anti-children, anti-health care, anti-worker, anti-environment, anti-admissions policy change, anti-inclusion, anti-live-and-let-live people. Let them die.”  Parents of students attending Fairfax County schools, being a trifle disconcerted at hearing death threats from one of the officials of their children’s educational system, demanded and eventually obtained her resignation.  Ms. Leete did make an attempt to back-pedal when it became apparent that her speech (which was delivered on video, with a break for applause after the “Let them die” clause) had miscarried, but her efforts were not successful.  She explained that she did not wish death for the opponents of critical race theory; she merely wished for the death of the ideals that inspired such opposition.  In this manner, the meaning of her original remarks was made clear to those who had not grasped it at first.

Canada has announced that vaccinated Americans will be able to cross the border without being quarantined.  The new policy begins on August 9^th.  Vaccinated visitors from other nations will be able to travel to the country on September 8^th.  Vaccinated Canadians are already able to visit the U.S. via air, but travel across the land border is still barred. 

Travel, however, is problematic in many areas, for reasons other than COVID.  At Denver, a major hub in the western part of the nation, hundreds of flights have been delayed by the smoke and haze caused by wildfires, which has limited visibility.  Over three hundred have been postponed and eight have been canceled altogether.  Currently there are 80 wildfires burning in 13 states, having already consumed over 1 million acres. 

 From Erik Frederick, the chief administrative officer of Mercy Hospital Springfield, Missouri:  “You hear ‘post-pandemic’ a lot.  We’re clearly not post-pandemic. New York threw a ticker-tape parade for its health-care heroes, and ours are knee-deep in COVID.”  Many health-care workers are, to use a rather inelegant term, fed up.  Their attitude last year was that combatting the ravages of a potentially fatal disease for which there was no cure and that struck entirely at random was their responsibility, serving their community.  Now they have little desire to be “putting themselves in harm’s way for people who’ve chosen not to protect themselves,” to use the words of Steve Edwards, president and CEO of CoxHealth.  Nearly all of the COVID patients in the hospitals are unvaccinated.  Missouri contains a few counties that have some of the lowest rates in the country:  Greene County, where Mercy and CoxHealth are located, has a vaccination rate of under 40%; in some neighboring counties the rate is as low as 20%. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 191,675,328; # of deaths worldwide: 4,112,279; # of cases U.S.: 35,009,500; # of deaths; U.S.: 624,943.

Hike leader certification – Biden castigates Facebook – State governments vs. vaccines – Masks recommended in Las Vegas – Canada to re-open borders – Evening statistics

I am now an officially certified hike leader.

As the journal entries indicate, I’ve been leading hikes for years.  But I’ve never had any formal training.  The knowledge that I picked up about leading hikes and about behaving on the trails generally has been learned on the job, so to speak. 

However, the Potomac Appalachian Trail Club (PATC) is currently redesigning its hike leader training.  I am well-acquainted with several people on the group that designed the revised course, and as a result I, along with several others whom they know from hiking alongside them, was invited to a test run of the course materials.  A previous test run had been performed this past Wednesday, via Zoom; for this test run, all of the participants met in the same room, although a couple of the course designers had logged in via Zoom to evaluate how well the test run went.

It turned out to be quite worthwhile.  No matter how often one has led hikes, there is always something to be learned from other experienced hike leaders; and on this occasion I picked up several techniques that I either have not often used in the past or have not used at all, but which I will incorporate into any hikes I lead in future.  For example, I always scout my hikes, but I generally have not made note of potential bailout points for hikers who may be undergoing difficulties during the hike itself; now I will do so whenever I scout a hike.  Again, I occasionally have made note of the telephone numbers for contacting land management personnel (park rangers, local police, etc.) while leading a hike but not consistently, and it is a practice that needs to be done for every hike that I lead, even for seemingly trouble-free ones such as the Lake Fairfax loop.  The course is two hours long, but it packs a good deal within a relatively small compass. 

The test run established, among other things, that while the course can be administered both via Zoom and by the traditional method of teachers and students assembled in a single room, a combination of the two, with some students live and some students logging in remotely, is not feasible.  The course designers who were logging in were able, for the most part, to follow our discussions; but it would have been a matter of some difficulty for them to participate in them directly.  This conclusion indeed jibes with the experiences of my teacher friend RK when she was teaching online earlier as a result of the pandemic restrictions, with some students assembled in a classroom and others online; it proved to be a logistical nightmare.  Each method of course has its advantages.  Discussions flow more freely when every participant is in the same room.  On the other hand, the PATC has potential leaders ranging from southern Pennsylvania to Charlottesville, and it may not always be possible to have the participants travel to their headquarters in Vienna, VA; in which case, a course conducted by Zoom is much more convenient. 

After the course is officially approved, trainees will be required to lead two hikes under supervision of the trainers; but because the participants this morning had played a role in testing it out and because each of us has already led hikes under the observation of several of the course designers, the requirement was waived for us; thus, as a result of participating in the class this morning, my status as PATC-trained hike leader has been certified.

The apartment in which we met, incidentally, was one in which visitors had to be admitted via a guard at the front desk or, if the guard is absent, calling the host and asking him to come down to admit them.  In this case the front desk was empty and we had to call our host to admit us.  One of the visitors asked whether facemasks were necessary in the building but he said that it was not for those who are vaccinated.  It is one of the many indicators of how uncertain the wearing of masks can be, at any rate in our area.  For the most part the mask requirement is waived for those who are vaccinated, but one never can tell in advance.  There may always be the odd public building or private apartment that requires one over and above any recommendations that the city or county might impose.  The inference is clear:  never leave home without taking a facemask to have on hand in case it is needed.

There is relatively little going on nationally, although Joe Biden has lashed out against Facebook for allowing misinformation about the vaccines to hinder the U.S. in reaching its goal of more than 70% of the population getting its first dose by July 4^th.  His exasperation against the anti-vaxxers, as they are called, is understandable.  Cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. have increased by 70% over the previous week and deaths by up 26%.  But it seems unfair to point to Facebook as the source of the problem.  About 85% of Facebook users are vaccinated.  Moreover, Facebook has explicit rules against making false claims about COVID-19 and the vaccines for it. 

In Biden’s place, I would have no hesitation in calling out the state governments that have hampered national inoculation efforts.  I have already noted how Tennessee boasts a “Department of Health” that is analogous to the “Ministry of Love” in George Orwell’s 1984.  Just as the latter belies its name by administering fearsome tortures to any perceived enemies of the state, Tennessee’s Department of Health is the most resolute of all state governments in its goal of distributing as few vaccinations as possible.  But it is not alone; states such as Missouri and South Carolina also have numerous government officials seemingly dedicated to keeping the vaccination rate as low and the rate of COVID infection as high as they possibly can.

Other localities are showing a somewhat greater sense of reality.  Las Vegas has followed Los Angeles’ lead in recommending masks indoors for the vaccinated and unvaccinated.  Nevada as a whole has not fared especially badly – it ranks 19^th among the states for its infection rate and 22^nd for its mortality rate – but Clark County, in which Las Vegas is located, has seen a steadily increasing COVID test positivity rate (it is currently about 12%) and the state as a whole has undergone a surge in infections, with hospitalizations now numbering over 700 a day – a substantial amount for a state whose entire population is only a little over 3 million.

Canada is set to re-open borders in mid-August, although a firm date has not been set.  At this point 80% of Canadians eligible for the vaccine have taken their first dose and 50% are fully vaccinated.  Some restrictions have already been eased.  Fully vaccinated Canadians or permanent legal residents may return to Canada without quarantining, although they must prove a negative COVID-19 test before returning and another once they get back.  There is a considerable economic incentive for re-opening the borders:  Canada had about 22 million foreign visitors in 2019, of whom about 15 million of them came from the United States.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 190,744,059; # of deaths worldwide: 4,098,347; # of cases U.S.: 34,953,125; # of deaths; U.S.: 624,713.

COVID’s fourth wave – Mask mandates begin to re-appear – Evening statistics

We have entered our fourth wave of the pandemic, according to the CDC.  Cases of the virus have doubled in the past two weeks.  The experience of the U.K., which has had a similar rate of vaccination, suggests that while infection rates will rise, hospitalizations and deaths will be considerably lower than those of the previous waves, since the vaccines have proven to be quite effective in containing the disease among the relatively small number who contract it even after the vaccines have been administered.  But the wave will target the unvaccinated, including children, and if infection rates are high enough, also the most vulnerable of the vaccinated – the elderly and the immunocompromised.

What is maddening about this wave is that it was entirely preventable.  Had vaccinations been administered at the rate they were being taken in April, probably more than 80% of adults would have been vaccinated by now.  The issue is not lack of vaccines – we have an amount on hand sufficient to vaccinate nearly everyone at this point – but the refusal of people to take them.  I do not know how Trump’s partisans are able to claim that the credit for introducing vaccines to the U.S. belongs to Trump and all the while strive their utmost to dissuade people from taking the vaccines; but the fact remains that they do, with an obsessiveness that borders on insanity.  Well over 99% of the hospitalizations consist of the unvaccinated.  Dr. Luis Ostrosky, chief of infectious diseases at UTHealth and an infectious disease specialist at Memorial Hermann-Texas Medical Center in Houston, said that “We’re going to be living in two pandemic worlds, the world that’s vaccinated and the world that’s unvaccinated.”  Ostrosky added that all of his own COVID patients are unvaccinated and all of them regret not having taking the shots when they had the opportunity.  But there is little use in shutting the barn door once the horse has bolted.

There are some alleviations to the current wave of infections.  Nearly 80% of seniors have been fully vaccinated, and nearly 90% have received at least one dose.  The most vulnerable segment of the population is thus well-protected.  People who have caught COVID and who have since recovered are also likely to be at low risk for at least a year after their recovery.  In the U.S. this number is between 29 and 30 million:  close to 9% of the population.  But about 35% of all people over 12 years of age remain unvaccinated.  When children under the age of 12 are factored in, the figure is nearly 45%. 

Los Angeles County will be re-implementing a mask mandate for indoor public spaces.  As the fourth wave gains in intensity, other counties are likely to follow suit in the coming months as the summer ends.  The coronavirus is a seasonal virus, which means, just as with the flu, people are more vulnerable to it in the fall and winter.  For my own part, I intend to wear a facemask for indoor public areas as the colder weather sets in.  The vaccines, while effective, are not perfect, and in addition it may be possible for me to infect others.  In any case, the facemasks have shown themselves to be effective in screening out other airborne diseases besides COVID, such as influenza and streptococcus.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 190,257,164; # of deaths worldwide: 4,091,251; # of cases U.S.: 34,925,998; # of deaths; U.S.: 624,600.

The pandemic and overdoses – The firing of Michelle Fiscus – Increase in new cases – Evening statistics

I speculated some months ago that the amount of suicides, particularly by means of overdoses, would probably increase as a result of the pandemic; and I regret to say that this prediction was accurate.  The number of overdoses in 2020 was about 93,000, a 29% increase over the amount of overdoses in 2019.  The pandemic not only isolated those struggling with drug addiction, but made treatment more difficult ot obtain on account of the resources being diverted to combat the ravages of COVID.  Ironically, the fact that suspensions of evictions and extended unemployment benefits leaving addicts with more money than usual was also a factor; with the increased amount of funds on hand, they stocked up on the drug supply.

Michelle Fiscus, Tennessee’s top immunization official, was fired this week after distributing a memo that said some teenagers could be eligible for the COVID-19 vaccine without their parents’ consent.  Tennessee’s State Supreme Court made a ruling, 37 years earlier, that allows health care providers to treat minors age 14 and above without parental consent if the providers decide those teenagers are mature enough.  But the state’s Department of Health not only has fired Fiscus for reaching out to minors, but has halted all advertising about vaccines (not only those for COVID)  aimed at adolescents, had stopped all vaccine events on school properties, and plans to exclude teenagers from receiving the postcards that adults receive to remind them to get their second doses of the vaccine.  The so-called Department of Health seems determined to ensure that the state’s vaccination rate will be as low as possible.  If that is their goal, they have certainly succeeded.  At this point only 37.5% of its adults are fully vaccinated, making it one of the states with the lowest vaccination rates in the country. 

In this connection it may be mentioned that as the Delta variant continues to circulate, our infection rates are going up again.  Both yesterday and today witnessed more than 30,000 new cases apiece and over 300 deaths.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 189,131,853; # of deaths worldwide: 4,073,941; # of cases U.S.: 34,846,846; # of deaths; U.S.: 623,806.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 189,692,150; # of deaths worldwide: 4,082,495; # of cases U.S.: 34,882,725; # of deaths; U.S.: 624,184.

Hiking to Rapidan Camp and Big Meadow Lodge – A chance encounter – Evening statistics

Yesterday I was fairly inactive, other than dealing with details connected with my mother’s transfer from an independent-living apartment to an assisted-living one.  Today, however, I went out with the Vigorous Hikers, starting from Syria, VA to Rapidan Camp and from there to the Big Meadows Lodge; then after lunch, we descended via Dark Hollows Falls and the Rose River fire road back to the parking area.  I was not looking forward to this hike when I arose this morning, for today was supposed to be the hottest of the entire week, and humid as well.  But it turned out much better than I expected.  The temperatures were slightly less warm in the elevations we were frequenting and since most of the ascent occurred in the morning, when the temperatures were lower, the climbs were far less uncomfortable than I anticipated.  In the Big Meadows area, which is about 3500 feet high, breezes were continually blowing, moderating the heat and dissipating the humidity.  This hike is traditionally the one in which the Vigorous Hikers pauses for a lunch longer than usual, dining at the lodge rather than eating pre-packaged lunches on the hike route itself.   We spent over 90 minutes there, despite the efficiency of the service, being inclined to linger over our meal and converse at leisure.  The latter part of the hike is mainly descent; by that time the temperatures grew warmer and somewhat more oppressive as we came down to lower elevations.  However, we took advantage of a swimming hole close to the parking area at the end of the hike.  The water was quite cool, as mountain streams and pools tend to be, but not frigid, and it was deep enough to submerge oneself entirely, and even to swim a few strokes consecutively.  Wineberries and, to a lesser extent, blackberries grew in abundance close to the trailhead and many of them were fully ripe, providing an excellent dessert for the lunch we had enjoyed earlier. 

I met a young father with his two young sons upon my return.  We chatted a little, he showing me where blackberries grew in the greatest profusion.  He was curious about my activities, and when I mentioned that I was part of a group that hiked for 18 miles with 3000 feet of elevation gain his eyes widened in surprise.  “In one day?” he asked.  He was by no means unfit himself, but an exertion of that kind seemed unusually arduous to him, or at the very least eccentric.  I suppose it is by many standards.  It is perhaps imprudent at my age to perform such undertakings.  I daresay as I grow older I will restrict myself according to the example set by GP, who confines himself to undertaking day-hikes of no more than 12 miles or so now that he has reached the age of 90.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 188,030,820; # of deaths worldwide: 4,055,269; # of cases U.S.: 34,761,520; # of deaths; U.S.: 623,011.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 188,571,052; # of deaths worldwide: 4,065,184; # of cases U.S.: 34,804,976; # of deaths; U.S.: 623,396.  More than one half-million new cases occurred globally today, of which well over 25,000 originated in the U.S.; we are far from seeing the end of the pandemic yet.

Decreasing frequency of diary entries – The two nations of the healthy and the unhealthy – The Capitol fencing torn down – Hiking at Manassas Gap – The Wanderbirds picnic – Evening statistics

My entries have become less frequent of late as the pandemic wanes.  It is inevitable:  during the earlier phases there were new restrictions, new conditions in daily living that required adjustment on a personal level, new guidelines governing public behavior in general.  And then, by degrees, the majority of these have been gradually reverting to conditions as they were before.  At this stage, changes imposed either by the virus or by its recession are no longer occurring on a daily or even a weekly basis.  There is, to be sure, no dearth of other news – a calamitous collapse of a multi-floored building on a Florida beach, the withdrawal of national troops from Afghanistan, the assassination of the President of Haiti, the flight of Richard Bronson to 50 miles above the earth’s surface that constitutes (symbolically at least) the first manned commercial vehicle flight to space – but events fueled by the pandemic directly are becoming less and less common. 

We are increasingly becoming two countries contained in a single national boundary.  Vaccinations are now progressing at a snail’s pace, despite an ample supply of vaccines.  The Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) broke out into cheering following an announcement that the government has not achieved 90% vaccinations.  That is to say, they are exulting in the prospect of numerous hospitalizations and deaths that could easily be prevented.  Donald Trump, as has already been noted, has been attempting to claim the credit of introducing the vaccines for himself.  So in this case the Republicans are not even in alignment with the man whom they claim to be his greatest devotees.  We appear to be on the road to the partitioning of our citizens into two groups, one with a high rate of inoculation and thus with a high degree of resistance against the virus, and the other with a much lower rate of inoculation and a correspondingly higher rate of hospitalizations.  The difference can be seen in discrepancies among various states.  In Maryland, for instance, 75.5% of all adults have received at least one dose.  In Tennessee, less than 45% of its adults have received one dose.

In connection with the CPAC, it may be mentioned that the metal fencing around the Capitol is going down.  It seems that it has at last been deemed safe enough to restore the Capitol to its original state, allowing visitors to enter after going through a security check, and that the building is no longer in danger of being besieged and plundered by zealots rallied by a defeated and sullen Presidential candidate.   Up to now, there has not been a need since 1812 to worry especially about the Capitol being targeted by foreign invaders; but the events of January have shown that we cannot be too optimistic about forestalling attacks from our own compatriots.

As so often happens, life on a personal level offers a great contrast to the turmoil of the national one.

Yesterday I went with AD and several others from Manassas Gap to the turnoff to Thompson Lake and back along the Appalachian Trail, with a slight detour via the Trico Tower Trail and the tower fire road, about 12 miles in all.  The weather was in the 80s by the mid-afternoon, but not humid; we started relatively early, when the temperatures were cooler, and the trail was well-shaded, so that the hike was quite comfortable.  I discovered that the lilies I had seen on this section of the trail earlier are not tiger lilies, as I had originally supposed, but Canada lilies or (as they are sometimes called) meadow lilies.  The flowers are similar in color and in their speckled appearance to tiger lilies but their leaves are whorled (radiating from a single point) instead of alternate (one node for each single leaf).   Towards the end of the hike we passed by several wineberry bushes bearing fruit and a number of us ate them by the handfuls during our descent back to the parking area.

We ended, as most of these hikes have ended, with feasting and chatting and general relaxation.  But today saw what was, for me, a more significant event, the first group social event I have attended since the pandemic began.  The Wanderbirds picnic was held at one of the numerous pavilions in Seneca Creek Park.  During the morning I led a group of eight or nine hikers along the route I had scouted the previous Wednesday.  We went at a fairly brisk pace, which I was prepared to slacken if anyone so requested, not being overly worried about arriving back at the pavilion after the food was laid out.  But as they all were striding vigorously whenever I looked back to check on them, I saw no reason to slow them down.  The weather was unexpectedly cooperative.  The forecast had been for a high degree of humidity and possible rainstorms.  It was indeed very sultry when we began the hike, but at one point that sun emerged from the clouds and the sunlight appeared to lighten the humidity.  The paths were well-shaded and there were hints of a breeze now and then.  It was not as comfortable as it had been yesterday but it was quite pleasant, and we had lovely views of the lake within the park and of the creek running along the park’s side.  There was an abundance of ripe wineberries and blackberries along the trails and I sampled a few as I passed by them – not as many as I would have ordinarily done, since I knew that a feast was being prepared against our return.

And so indeed it proved.  This being a Wanderbirds event, food and drink was supplied in abundance:  roasted chicken, salads of every description imaginable, homemade breads, fresh fruits such as strawberries and blackberries and grapes and chunks of melon and pineapple, and numerous desserts (I contributed a home-made almond tart) and at least half-a-dozen varieties of ice cream.  We had containers of lemonade and ice tea to quench our thirst, and alcoholic beverages were not neglected, with numerous varieties of beer and a few bottles of wine.  We gathered plates of food and sat at the tables underneath the spacious pavilion and conversed at leisure and gradually approached that state of mind described by Virginia Woolf in A Room of One’s Own about the experience of lunching at “Oxbridge”:

“And thus by degrees was lit, half–way down the spine, which is the seat of the soul, not that hard little electric light which we call brilliance, as it pops in and out upon our lips, but the more profound, subtle and subterranean glow which is the rich yellow flame of rational intercourse. No need to hurry. No need to sparkle. No need to be anybody but oneself. We are all going to heaven and Vandyck is of the company – in other words, how good life seemed, how sweet its rewards, how trivial this grudge or that grievance, how admirable friendship and the society of one’s kind . . .”

How admirable friendship and the society of one’s kind received special emphasis from the fact that several of the attendees were people whom I had not seen since the beginning of the pandemic or even longer.  There was GM, who moved to Delaware some years ago following his retirement but who used to attend Wanderbirds hikes now and then when they took place in Maryland before the pandemic put them to a halt, and with whom I had participated in the Hike Across Maryland in 2009.  There was CM, who had been a fairly constant club hiker until she developed foot trouble and had to refrain from long hikes for a time; she has recovered now and indeed was one of the stalwarts who went with me on the 9-mile hike during the morning.  There was BP, a long-time associate with whom I had co-led many hikes, including one that was particularly memorable for being the first our club had been physically able to perform after a series of snowfalls during “Snowmaggedon” (the winter of 2010/11, which deposited a record 56 inches of snow upon the DC area and made hiking trails impassable for weeks on end) and that took place among my old haunts at the Northwest Branch.  There was . . . but it would be tedious to list all of the old friends whom I was seeing anew, chatting with them as if the pandemic had never intervened and broken off our intercourse. 

We spoke of past memories and of plans for the future.   SM, the club president, outlined the manner in which the club will eventually be restored to its former condition.  It will proceed at a somewhat more cautious pace than the Capital Hiking Club, which will resume bus hikes in early August.  The Wanderbirds will organize hikes in which people will meet at the trailhead, and hike leaders will not be expected to supply food or maps.  Attendance will be restricted to current members.  The date for the resumption of bus hikes is still uncertain, but some time in early 2022 appears likely. 

We were not the only party within the park by any means.  The pavilions, as I mentioned, are numerous and several of them were occupied that day, for the most part by large groups devoting themselves, like our own group, to eating and drinking and socializing.  Other hikers besides ourselves were enjoying the trails, some visitors were carrying fishing poles as they went down to the lake, at the Boat Center several were renting rowboats and canoes.  It was quite easy to imagine, from the overall effect, that the pandemic was only a distant memory.  AN, one of the club members with whom I reconnected, is a medical professional, and she commented on how illusory such an impression is – the relatively large number of the unvaccinated and the virulence of the Delta variant are virtual guarantees of a substantial increase in cases this coming autumn – but for today, at least, all seemed peaceful, serene, and festive.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 187,237,902; # of deaths worldwide: 4,042,192; # of cases U.S.: 34,725,797; # of deaths; U.S.: 622,819.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 187,615,494; # of deaths worldwide: 4,048,856; # of cases U.S.: 34,732,753; # of deaths; U.S.: 622,845.

Indications of the receding pandemic – COVID waning but not yet over – Evening statistics

It is interesting to see how much changes as a result of the passage of a few months.  During the month of February I was eagerly on the lookout for the opportunity to receive one of the COVID vaccines and fretting that I might not get inoculated in time for the trip to California in June.  Many people I know traveled miles away from their homes during that period to get vaccinated, in some cases even going out of state.  And yesterday, a bare five months later, I went into the local supermarket and saw a poster urging customers to take advantage of the vaccines available at its pharmacy.  No appointments were necessary, walk-ins were accepted without difficulty, and a 10% discount on any grocery purchases by the vaccine recipient was offered as an inducement for receiving getting the dose.

And in contrast to the deserted schoolyards that were a commonplace last year, today when I went past the local elementary school I saw and heard children playing joyously, the meadows ringing with their shouts and their laughter.  The silent and empty yards that I remembered from less than half a year ago seemed like a bad dream. 

But we are still far short of victory.  Nearly one half-million new cases were diagnosed today worldwide, and the daily death toll is over 8,000.  The complete global death toll is now over 4 million, or roughly one out of every 2,000.  As far as pandemics go, it is not an especially large figure, but it is significant nonetheless.  On the national level, there are areas here and there where the virus continues to expand.  In Missouri, for example, new cases have increased by 46% in the past two weeks, and new hospital admissions have increased by 30%.  Missouri has one of the lowest vaccination rates, with only 46% of residents who have received at least one dose and 40% who are fully vaccinated.  In one hospital, 88% of those admitted to the ICU are on ventilators.  “This is the absolute worst that I’ve ever seen it,” one of the nurses said.  “These patients are a lot sicker, and a lot younger, than what we saw the last go around, so it’s just really sad to see. And a lot of the population is unvaccinated.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 186,801,504; # of deaths worldwide: 4,034,575; # of cases U.S.: 34,708,382; # of deaths; U.S.: 622,690.

Masks at a residence home for the elderly – Scouting a hike for the upcoming Wanderbirds picnic – Eric Adams in New York – Rise of the Delta variant – Marjorie Taylor Greene in the news again – Evening statistics

I spent much of yesterday making arrangements to have my mother moved from the independent-living room she now occupies (with a full-time caretaker) to an assisted-living room.  There is naturally a certain amount of paperwork involved, but on the whole matters went smoothly.  I underwent a slight surprise when I entered the facility:  several residents and even a couple of the staff members were not wearing masks.  I remarked on this to MB, the caretaker, who told me that the requirement is now being less rigorously enforced as the virus is perceived to be receding, particularly as almost everyone in the building has been vaccinated.

The Wanderbirds club will be having a picnic on Sunday, the first official group event in well over a year.  As part of this festivity there will (of course) be some hiking available to those who want to go on the trails before the food is served.  Typically our picnics have featured shorter hikes than usual to allow us to devote the afternoon to feasting and other amusements.  In this case the longer of the two hikes offered will be about 10 miles.  I have volunteered to lead it, so I went out to scout it today.  I went as early in the morning as possible, because the temperatures rose to the upper 90s later in the day.  Even during early hours and even while walking in shady glades, the atmosphere became oppressive by mid-morning.  But the hike makes a circuit around a beautiful lake and there were numerous clusters of wineberries and blackberries, both of which taste best fresh off of the bush.   The weather forecast for Sunday, happily, is more favorable than today’s, in the mid-80s and with clouds to mitigate the glare of the summer sun. 

Eric Adams has secured the Democratic nomination for mayor of New York City.  That is welcome news, for Adams has consistently opposed the “defund the police” mantra of the far left flank of the party.  Police reform is certainly needed and, in addition, the police should to be relieved of certain tasks that can be more appropriately assigned to social workers.  But, as Adams noted, “You can have all the reforms you want. You can have a kinder, gentler police department. But if your streets are filled with guns and you’re dealing with a lot of violence, you are still going to have a lot of children being shot. . . . If you erode that trust [in law enforcement], you are going to erode public safety.”  Adams himself is not only a former police captain, but has had first-hand experience in his youth of the sort of harassment to which many blacks are being subjected.  It is no accident that while in the early stages of the primary he was not one of the front-runners, the recent surge in crime steadily pushed his platform to the fore.  People assuredly do not wish to be harassed, but neither do they wish to be unprotected from the numerous felons who prey upon them as the police is deprived of the ability to combat them.

The Delta variant of the COVID virus is now the dominant strain in the U.S, accounting for 51.7% of the new cases over a two-week period ending on July 3^rd.  The average age of these new cases is considerably younger than of cases from previous phases of the pandemic – not surprisingly, since adults in the range of 18 to 29 years account for nearly a quarter of those adults still unvaccinated.  In Maryland alone, every single person who died of COVID during the month of June was unvaccinated.  The unvaccinated also accounted for 95% of all new infections and 93% of all new hospitalizations during that period. 

Speaking of vaccinations, Marjorie Taylor Greene has compared Biden’s vaccine push to Nazi-era “brown shirts” just a few weeks after she was forced to apologize for her remarks comparing Capitol Hill mask-wearing rules to the Holocaust.  When asked about this comment by CNN, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said simply the White House does not take medical advice from Greene.  It would be pleasant to write this latest antic of Greene’s off as another desperate bid for attention, but it would not be true.  She raised $3.2 million during her first three months in office, an exceptional amount for a freshman member of the House.  She is as toxic as Trump himself; the scale on which she operates is somewhat more limited, but not limited enough to prevent her from doing an appalling amount of damage.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 185,349,814; # of deaths worldwide: 4,008,455; # of cases U.S.: 34,616,333; # of deaths; U.S.: 621,563.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 185,807,906; # of deaths worldwide: 4,016,953; # of cases U.S.: 34,639,016; # of deaths; U.S.: 621,819.

Hiking in the G. Richard Thompson Wildlife Management area – Mask wearing in abeyance locally – Request for mask wearing in Los Angeles – Evening statistics

Today was warmer and more humid than yesterday, but nonetheless a group of us hiked in the G. Richard Thompson Wildlife Management area.  We went from the Upper Ted Lake parking area via the Trillium Trail to the Appalachian Trail up to the Trico Tower Trail, and then we went up to the tower.  It was about 6½ miles in all.  There are, of course, no trilliums in bloom at this time of the year, but the area is rich in wildflowers even at this season and we saw numerous phlox and tiger lilies.  And afterwards we went to the Fox Meadow winery nearby, enjoying a leisurely lunch at one of the picnic tables; the winery has customers bringing their own food eat outside of their main building, but we wished to be outside in any case, and the sun umbrella attached to the table, as well as some cloud cover that moved in, greatly mitigated any glare from the sun.  It was a great pleasure to eat on the lawn with a vista of mountain ranges before us, all covered with the rich green foliage of the season. 

At the winery itself, customers and staff alike were not wearing masks.  When I returned from the winery and went to a grocery store most of the customers were likewise without masks.  A few customers and one or two staff members were wearing masks, but they were in a minority.  At this point 62.1% of adults in the state are fully vaccinated and 71.5% have received at least one dose.  This does not quite meet the criteria of so-called “herd immunity” but it is close enough to make people confident – particularly in the counties close to DC, where the average amount of adults who have received at least one dose is close to three-quarters.  This relaxed attitude is typical of most of the country but there are exceptions. 

The Los Angeles County health officials have requested residents – even vaccinated ones – to wear masks in public places.  About 51% of the county residents are fully vaccinated, which is considerably lower than the percentage of residents in other populous counties in California such as San Francisco and Santa Clara (68% and 66% respectively).  The recent spike in cases as a result of the Delta variant has prompted this concern.  Hospitalizations had hit a record low on June 12, but since that time there has been a 30% increase of patients.  “The data is clear,  said Dr. Mark Ghaly, California Health and Human Services Secretary.  “Nearly all new COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths are preventable.”  Of the fatalities that have occurred in the nation since December, 99.8% were unvaccinated. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 184,909,389; # of deaths worldwide: 4,000,177; # of cases U.S.: 34,598,307; # of deaths; U.S.: 621,335.

The current Fourth of July and the previous one – Hiking in Shenandoah National Park and Prince Williams County Park – Not quite up to the 70% goal – Surprising dress code of the Ukrainian army – Evening statistics

What a contrast this Fourth of July weekend makes to the last one!  Last year at this time there were no parades, no musical events, no fireworks; now all of the usual festivities have been restored, while the muted and melancholy atmosphere associated with the previous Fourth of July has been utterly dissipated.  The parade took place on Saturday and the fireworks took place this evening.  With respect to this latter event I have seen numerous messages on Facebook from various grave personages discoursing about the heinousness of imposing trauma on various animals by such a display, including birds and dogs (cats, apparently, being able to take the matter in stride and shrug it off as one of the many peculiarities of the odd human creatures they live with).  These amiable moralists profess great anxiety over the welfare of species other than our own and a profound concern for the environment generally, and they possess, in fact, a genuine aversion towards anything resembling ease and enjoyment.  For the present, at least, their reproaches have had no effect.  Firework displays have been held across the nation, to the delight of the spectators and to children in particular, all the more intense for having been deprived of this pleasure during the previous year.

It seems a shame to forego the greater part of such amusements after so many people went to the trouble of organizing them, but I have been inactive for several days on account of the heat of the past week, and I felt the want of exercise and getting out of doors.  I therefore elected to go hiking with AD and RH both yesterday and today.  On Saturday we started from Jenkins Gap in Shenandoah National Park, taking a there-and-back along the Mount Marshall and Bluff Trails to Big Devils Stairs.  The view is somewhat less extensive than it was in March, when I last visited the overlook, since the foliage is now in full leaf.  Nonetheless it remains a splendid view of the gorge below and of the numerous ranges in the distance.  The temperature was astonishingly mild for the time of year.  Even in the lower elevations the temperature never rose above 80 degrees, while in the Jenkins Gap area it was quite cool during the morning and the temperature probably never rose to more than 71 or 72 degrees at the most.  Today we went to Prince William County Park and went on a 13-mile loop from the Visitor Center.  The park does not boast extensive panoramic views, but it goes through dense forest that perhaps shows to its greatest advantage at this time of year.  There is a particularly exhilarating quality from the mosaic-like effect of the chinks of blue sky dappled here and there with fluffy cumulus clouds appearing in the background of the lace-like patterns created by the leaves of the tree canopy arching about the trails.  It was considerably warmer today, without any of the cooling breezes we enjoyed yesterday, but it was well-shaded and – again quite surprisingly – there were very few insects, considering the warmth of the day and the fact that many small streams course through the park.  Lest my choice of activity for the weekend seems unpatriotic, I should add that many others decided to celebrate the holiday in the same fashion:  during the return drive from Jenkins Gap to the park entrance every parking area that I passed was completely full, and I meet numerous other hikers on the trails in Prince Williams County Park today. 

I had been feeling somewhat out of sorts on Saturday, quite tired and listless even after I arose in the morning; and although I perked up a bit after the first substantial climb on the Bluff Trail, I still was tired and disinclined to do much after I returned home.  But the hike did me good, for I rested well the preceding night and today I felt much more active, being able to cover the full circuit of today’s hike without feeling any particular fatigue.

As of today, 67.1% of American adults have received at least one vaccine dose and 55.4% have been completely vaccinated.  We are thus somewhat short of the goal Biden set on May 4 of having 70% of American adults receive one dose of the vaccine.  When Biden announced this goal, Americans were being vaccinated at the rate of 820,000 per day.  Had this rate been kept up over the past two months, we would have reached the goal easily, but as of today the daily rate of vaccination is barely 300,000.  Younger people between 18 and 24 have been particularly reluctant to get the vaccine – which is rather surprising; one would have expected an older generation to be more conservative and hidebound in such matters.  A considerable number of the unvaccinated told pollsters that they would be more likely to get the shots if they were required to return to their normal lives, such as flying on an airplane or attending large gatherings. But few businesses are able to levy more than cursory checks to verify if customers are fully vaccinated.  The immunization records across the nation are a disjointed patchwork, making it all but impossible to issue so-called “vaccination passports” even if state governors were willing to enforce them – and of course most of them are not.  Both Pfizer and Moderna have begun their Biologics License Applications (BLAs) to obtain full approval from the FDA and promote the vaccines from their current emergency status.  That circumstance may encourage some of the unvaccinated to accept the vaccines as safe.  Typically BLAs require eight months to be completed, but the FDA has indicated its willingness to expedite the process in this instance.  There is precedence for accelerated BLAs as a consequence of national outbreaks:  in 2014, for instance, an outbreak of meningococcal B prompted the FDA to complete the BLAs for the vaccines manufactured for this disease in roughly 3-4 months.

The Ukraine has imposed a somewhat unusual uniform regulation upon their female troops.  Commentators erupted with wonder, not unmingled with disapproval, when the Ukrainian ministry published photos on its Facebook page of their women soldiers marching in camouflaged pants, shirts, hats, and – high heels.  What strategic whiz among the top brass came up with this bizarre fashion statement?  And how exactly will they deploy these troops should the latter be called upon to participate in an actual battle?  Will they be expected to walk down a runway that leads into the main battleground and dazzle their opponents with the latest military chic as conceived by Calvin Klein, Ralph Lauren, Tom Ford, and Estée Lauder?   The residents of Crimea must be frantically brushing up on their fluency in Russian after discovering this latest development among the army that is supposedly defending them from invasion. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 184,546,101; # of deaths worldwide: 3,993,035; # of cases U.S.: 34,592,076; # of deaths; U.S.: 621,293.  The death toll was only 38 today, at least officially.  It sounds like a suspiciously low figure but even in India the death toll was well under 800.  The numbers of new infections and deaths worldwide are under 325,000 and under 6,000 respectively, so the virus does appear to be receding on a global level. The U.S. is now 15^th on the list of nations with the highest infection rates and 20^th on the nations with the highest mortality rates, a great improvement since January. 

Guests for brunch at home – Growing national confidence – When does a pandemic officially cease to be a pandemic? – Winning the struggle, but not quite victorious yet

This morning marked a significant step in the return to normalcy, at any rate on a personal level.  For the first time since the pandemic began I was able to invite visitors to a meal indoors.  My guests were EG and HG, who were one of the main links I had to any kind of social life outside of the after-hike gatherings I had with fellow-hikers after we finished wandering on the trails.  The leisurely conversations we enjoyed as we drank coffee together in their lovely backyard garden were a great restorative under conditions that otherwise would have caused my spirits to flag.  I will admit that it was a pleasure to prepare food for more than myself alone at long last, and I rather indulged myself (and, it is to be hoped, them as well) in preparing and selecting several foods that for the most part are occasional treats only, on the grounds that they are too caloric or too high in cholesterol or are improper in other ways that our health experts have laid down for the preservation of our virtue:  such as bacon, and smoked salmon, and whipped cream to accompany the raspberries and blackberries,  and Port Salut and Brie cheeses.  We sat down to brunch in the mid-morning and ate in a leisurely fashion in the sun room, which has glass walls on two of its sides and had a cheerful aspect even in the muted sunlight of a cloud-covering morning. 

It would seem that this little episode is indicative of the national mood at large.  For the upcoming holiday, private gatherings such as backyard barbecues have none of the restrictions or prohibitions seen a year ago, and firework displays are scheduled all over the country.  Biden has said that July 4^th will be the celebration of U.S. “independence from the coronavirus.”   It’s a little difficult to know how to take this.  Does he mean that the pandemic is officially over and that at this point the coronavirus is simply another endemic disease like influenza or shingles?  I think it is rather early to claim that we have reached that stage, and the CDC appears to agree.  The Delta variant is still spreading rapidly in much of the world, especially in India, which now officially has recorded more than 30 million cases and more than 400,000 deaths.  (As noted in several previous entries, the actual numbers are in all probability much higher.)  It has had little effect on vaccinated people (India has vaccinated only 4.4% of its population to date) but it is extremely contagious among the unvaccinated.  Currently this variant is making the rounds in several areas of the country, notably in places such as Arkansas, which has seen the biggest surge in cases since the winter.  The variant now accounts for about a quarter of all new COVID infections.  It is true that over 55% of all American adults are fully vaccinated, but just over 47% of the entire population has received both doses (or the Johnson and Johnson single dose vaccine).  It can hardly be otherwise; the vaccines are still under emergency authorization use, which excludes theire being administered to younger children.

Towards the end of the original Journal of the Plague Year, Defoe says that “it pleased God, by the continuing of the winter weather, so to restore the health of the city that by February following we reckoned the distemper quite ceased, and then we were not as easily frighted again.”  One supposes that a certain number of days with no new cases elapsed before medical authorities determined that the plague had “quite ceased.”  Whether we will ever reach that stage is questionable (the virus will probably become a sustainable ailment, taking away a certain number of people every year like influenza) but the present conditions are somewhat less reassuring, even though they are a substantial improvement on what we have undergone earlier.  We’re still getting several thousand new cases every day, and today we sustained over 300 deaths.  If we get a sufficient number of people vaccinated so that the risks of new clusters of infection become relatively small, then we can say with some assurance that the coronavirus no longer has the status of a pandemic; but with nearly 5 million cases still active, any declaration of victory at this point seems premature.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 183,830,490; # of deaths worldwide: 3,979,313; # of cases U.S.: 34,578,872; # of deaths; U.S.: 620,969.

Hot weather relief – The Trump Organization indicted – The economy rebounds, but national debt remains high – Evening statistics

We have had a series of extremely humid days in the high 90s – not quite as bad as the record-breaking temperatures in the normally cool Northwest, but very oppressive nonetheless:  going about a few errands on foot yesterday left me exhausted, and probably a bit dehydrated as well.  But it was less extreme today and the rain that began during the afternoon is expected to lower temperatures for a few days at least. 

The Trump Organization and its chief financial officer Allen Weisselberg have been formally charged by New York prosecutors with criminal fraud, attempting to cheat the IRS by giving its executives various fringe benefits without the recipients reporting any of these as income.   For example, Weisselberg received perks such as rent on an Upper West Side apartment, utilities and garage expenses; a leased Mercedes-Benz (as well as a second one for his wife’s use); nearly $30,000 in cash over a six-year period for personal holiday gratuities; furnishings such as new beds, flat-screen TVs, carpeting, and other furniture for his home in Florida; and $359,058 in tuition payments for Columbia Grammar & Preparatory School for two of his grandchildren, none of which was listed on any of his returns.  Trump himself is not charged, regrettably, but at least he is referenced.  Those payments were made by checks from Donald Trump’s account signed by Trump himself, and later from the Donald J. Trump revocable trust.  The investigation is still ongoing, however, and much depends on Weisselburg’s response.  For the moment he is pleading not guilty, but if he changes his mind and decides to assist prosecutors, they could use his testimony and evidence to pursue others.  One must hope for the best.  Even if the case ends up not accusing Trump directly, it has the potential of inflicting considerable financial losses upon him and of creating the extremely desirable effect of deflecting his energies from campaigning and issuing directives to the Republican Party.

There is both good news and bad news on the economic front.  The good news is that jobless claims have dropped to the lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic and the number of announced layoffs in June fell to a 21-year low.  Now that the risk of infection has diminished and mask mandates are nearly gone, more consumers now have the confidence to shop, travel, eat out, and attend public events.  This trend in turn fuels the demand for workers, notably at restaurants and tourism businesses.  Some employers are now actually struggling to fill jobs.  Posted job openings reached a new high in May, and some workers are successfully negotiating for more pay or improved working conditions. 

On the other hand, the pandemic has taken a huge toll on the national budget.  The U.S. deficit will reach $3 trillion this year, about 13% of the gross domestic product.  The GDP is projected to increase by 7.4% in 2021 as the economy rebounds from the pandemic-driven recession, but will then fall to an annual average of 1.6% between 2026 and 2031.  Inflation is projected to rise 2.8%.  The legal limit on the federal debt will be reached on August 1^st.   Republican lawmakers will not raise the debt ceiling without spending cuts or other debt reduction measures, and it is unlikely that the Democrats will agree.  So we may expect a government shutdown in a month or so.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 183,388,992; # of deaths worldwide: 3,970,595; # of cases U.S.: 34,560,646; # of deaths; U.S.: 620,639.

Mask wearing in public – Vaccination rate slows down – Traffic, air and road, for Fourth of July weekend – Evening statistics

The easing in mask-wearing requirements is still sporadic.  Today, when I visited my mother’s assisted-living facility, masks were still required, which seems reasonable enough for a building whose residents all fall within the most susceptible segment of the population at large.  Somewhat more puzzling is the requirement to wear masks at the local bank, in an area where the large majority of stores and services such as barbers no longer impose this restriction.  At this point I still take a face mask with me whenever I leave the house:  it is possible that I won’t have to use it for performing any errands I undertake on a given day, but it still remains not at all certain.

We are not going to reach the goal of 70% of all adults having received at least one dose by July 4^th, as Biden had hoped.  At present the amount of adults who have received at least one dose is 66.5% and the amount of fully vaccinated adults is 57.4%.  Still, we should be able to claim that two-thirds of American adults will have received at least one dose by July 4^th – quite a respectable number, although of course one hopes for better over the next few months.  These hopes may go unfulfilled; at this point only about 3% of those who have not yet been vaccinated plan to get a vaccine as soon as they can. 

This weekend is expected to be the busiest on the roads since the pandemic began, indeed, the 43 million Americans expected to drive on the Fourth of July weekend will exceed the amount of drivers during that same weekend in 2019 by 5%.  This is so, despite the steadily increasing price of gas, the highest it has been since 2014.  The current national average is $3.09.  Air travel is also supposed to be congested as well.  The destinations are still mainly domestic for the most part, with Miami, Orlando and Las Vegas being the top choices for travelers, but some are venturing on international travel as well, chiefly to Mexico and the Caribbean nations.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 11:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 182,580,354; # of deaths worldwide: 3,953,846; # of cases U.S.: 34,527,493; # of deaths; U.S.: 619,980      .

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 182,953,005; # of deaths worldwide: 3,962,118; # of cases U.S.: 34,542,406; # of deaths; U.S.: 620,212.

A winery hike – Joyous return to Rappahannock Cellars – Kim Jong-Un sheds some poundage – A North Korean’s perspective on American college campuses – Evening statistics

I returned to Shenandoah National Park today to hike with LM and four others, with a visit to a winery afterwards.  We started from the Dickey Ridge Visitor Center and covered the Fox Hollow and Snead Farm loops, returning via the fire road from FAA tower at the summit.  It was a fairly brief hike, about 6¼ miles and 1200 feet of elevation gain, but it was not without adventure.  At one point we saw a bear in the distance on the trail.  It was no more eager for an encounter than we were, and immediately turned his back to us and went off into the bushes.  The trails were well-shaded, but we did not receive the refreshing breezes of yesterday.  Still, it was not unduly hot at the elevation where we were hiking. 

Afterwards we repaired to the winery – none other than the Rappahannock Cellars, where LM, LH, MM, and I had received so welcoming a reception nearly a year ago in July. There were more customers today than there had been during our previous visit, and as a result the attention we received was less personal than before; but they were very polite and helpful nonetheless, and we had no difficulty in securing a table in the covered patio on the third floor.  There we laid out the provisions we had brought for the occasion:  various cheeses, bean dip, fruit (including some excellent sour cherries that LH had picked up at a farmer’s market), crackers, lunch meats, and cookies.  There were a few other customers who came up to the patio at times, and the display of eatables that we had assembled seemed to inspire an emotion akin to awe:  one young woman asked, in a voice of wonder, “Are you all retired?” and another customer actually took a photo of us to send to her relatives.  As before, we sat about two hours together, animatedly discussing both political and personal matters while we repeatedly filled our glasses with the wine we had purchased before ascending to the patio.  Social gatherings such as these are now easier to obtain than they were earlier, but they are to be cherished nonetheless.

North Koreans are reportedly concerned about Kim Jong-Un’s “emaciated” appearance.  Kim, who is 5’8” tall, previously weighed about 310 pounds, but now seems to have lost 30-45 pounds in recent months.  His compatriots’ solicitude seems somewhat misplaced:  even with the maximum amount of weight loss he would still amply qualify for the “obese” category.  It is true, however, that no one knows whether this relatively rapid weight loss is the result of deliberate changes in his diet to slim down or the result of health problems.  Both his father and his grandfather died as a result of heart issues.

Yeonmi Park, a defector from North Korea who eventually made her way to the U.S., says that her new country’s future is as bleak as that of the country she left behind her.  She became a student at Columbia University, where, according to her, she was subjected to the same “anti-Western sentiment, collective guilt and suffocating political correctness” that she received from her North Korean educators.  During orientation at Columbia, for instance, she was scolded by a university staff member for admitting she enjoyed classic literature such as Jane Austen.  Then, too, she was nonplussed by the deliberate confusion of language, with every class requesting students to declare their preferred pronouns.  “English is my third language,” she said.  “I learned it as an adult. I sometimes still say ‘he’ or ‘she’ by mistake and now they are going to ask me to call them ‘they’? How the heck do I incorporate that into my sentences?”  Yeonmi added that after getting into several arguments with her teachers she “learned how to just shut up” in order to maintain a good GPA and thereby to graduate.  “Even North Korea is not this nuts,” she said. “North Korea was pretty crazy, but not this crazy.”  Having myself received an education at an Ivy League university, I can readily understand her dismay; although I’m bound to say that the oppressiveness was less apparent at the graduate level.  I believe that she is mistaken in taking the Ivy League campus as representative of the U.S. at large; but there can be no doubt that the amount of double-think that goes on within these campuses has to be heard (and read) to be believed.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 182,173,963; # of deaths worldwide: 3,944,908; # of cases U.S.: 34,509,025; # of deaths; U.S.: 619,568.

Hiking from Elkwallow in Shenandoah National Park – The delta variant of the virus – Evening statistics

I went with AD and RH and others on the Appalachian Trail from Elkwallow Wayside to Gravel Springs Hut and back, about 12 miles and 2500 feet of elevation gain in all.  We met some volunteers mowing away various weeds on the trail.  The decline in mountain ashes as a result of the emerald ash borer has led to more direct sunlight and less space occupied by tree roots, both of which encourage grasses and smaller shrubs to flourish and to invade the trails.  Although the sky was gray and overcast, with occasional bursts of rainfall, during the drive to Shenandoah National Park, the ridgeline in the park itself was relatively clear and there was minimal precipitation.  Summer humidity has returned with a vengeance, but the ridgeline was at least 10 degrees cooler than the residential areas below.  This section of the AT had more overlooks than I recollected, and we had many sweeping views to the west of the Shenandoah Valley below.

The delta variant was mentioned during the hike.  The WHO is urging people to continue to wear masks, even if they are vaccinated.  The variant is even more infectious than the original virus and has spread quickly; originally confined to India, it has now surfaced in at least 92 countries.  In the U.K. it is the dominant strain, and it may become so in the U.S. as well.  Already it accounts for as much as a fifth of all new COVID infections nationwide.  The symptoms differ from the original COVID virus; instead of coughing and loss of sense of smell and taste, they resemble those of a bad cold, with headache, runny nose, sore throat, and fever.  It is possible that states will be implementing mask mandates again.  New cases of the COVID virus have been developing at a fairly steady rate for the past several days – about 11,000 cases daily. 

It is unfortunate that the pace of vaccinations is slowing down, having dropped to about 300, 000 per day.  Barely 66% of all adults have received one dose and only 56.5% are fully vaccinated – not very large increases from the figures of a week earlier.  About 13% of all adults say definitely that they will not receive the vaccine, with an additional 7% will take the vaccine only it is required for work or other activities.  There is one slightly optimistic note:  the Pfizer vaccine appears to be effective in warding off the variant, with an effectivity rate of 88% (as opposed to 93% effectivity against the Alpha variant and 94% against the original virus strain).  Data is not available yet for the Moderna vaccine, but it uses a similar technology and the hope is that it will have a similar degree of efficacy. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 181,530,161; # of deaths worldwide: 3,932,276; # of cases U.S.: 34,488,957; # of deaths; U.S.: 619,333.

The plague of grasshoppers – Michael Fanone’s pleas on behalf of the Capitol defenders fall on deaf ears – Evening statistics

For all of the commotion that has been made about the swarms of cicadas here – which are perfectly harmless – a much more malevolent type of swarm is appearing in the West as a result of the drought.  Grasshoppers are emerging even as the drought is causing waterways to dry up and wildfires to blaze.  Agriculture officials are launching the largest grasshopper-killing campaign since the 1980s, spraying the pesticide diflubenzuron to kill grasshopper nymphs before they develop into adults.  It’s a fairly drastic solution, since the spraying will kill other insects as well, such as bees and butterflies; but it’s difficult to recommend an alternative.  The grasshoppers thrive in the drought, which lessens exposure of grasshopper eggs to parasites that need moisture, and their number is expected to peak in roughly two months, when the insects will reach 2 to 3 inches in length and become so prevalent they’ll start to eat more plant matter on the ranches they infest than cattle can.

Michael Fanone, a police officer who was severely injured during the riot at the Capitol on January 6^th, has pressed Kevin McCarthy to denounce: 1) the 21 House Republicans who voted against the Gold Medal bill that would recognize and honor the officers who fought to secure the Capitol, 2) Representative Andrew Clyde’s statements regarding Jan. 6^th that compared the rioters to ordinary tourists, and 3) the theory that the FBI was behind the Jan. 6 insurrection.  He might as well have spared himself the effort.  Fanone underwent a traumatic experience during the riot:  he was tased multiple times, dragged into the mob, and beaten with a flagpole, leading to concussion and a heart attack.  Over 140 police officers were injured that day and one would imagine that the “law and order” party would hasten to show them sympathy and support, but it did not work out that way.  So great is Trump’s baneful influence that even seven months after he has lost the election Republican senators and representatives will not bestow the slightest amount of assistance upon the men who defended the Capitol and may have saved their own lives, for fear of appearing to criticize Trump even indirectly.  After many days of stalling, McCarthy finally did consent to meet with Fanone to discuss the aftermath of the riot, but he dismissed Fanone’s request with frigid indifference.  As might be expected, most of the Republicans were stricken with silence with respect to this episode, with one notable dissentient voice.  Adam Kinzinger, who had shown his independence earlier by voting for Trump’s impeachment, blasted Republicans who have taken to downplaying the severity of the violent insurrection.  “Michael Fanone was tortured,” he said.  “And if we don’t take responsibility for what happened six months ago because we’re so concerned with winning an election in a year and a half, I don’t know what that says about us as a party.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 181,158,943; # of deaths worldwide: 3,924,395; # of cases U.S.: 34,481,754; # of deaths; U.S.: 619,134.

Hiking around Burke Lake – Giuliani’s license suspended – The Loudoun County school board meeting – Vaccination rates – Evening statistics

Not wishing to drive much today, I fell back on my old standby, the 11-mile Burke Lake/Lake Mercer circuit.  There were fewer people than I expected.  Admittedly today was a weekday, but it was also a day during summer vacation for the schools.  Moreover, the weather was wonderful, in the mid-to-high 70s, not at all humid, a blue sky with many cumulus clouds veiling any glare from the sun, and with many cool breezes in the shade.  No one was wearing a mask out of doors, in great contrast to what I saw during my last visit in February.  There were only a handful of people on bikes, again forming a contrast to what I have seen on this trail earlier. I can only speculate on the possible causes of the difference.  Are more people out of town now that the summer holidays have begun?  Or are people lapsing into their former indolent habits as the COVID-related restrictions have been disappearing?  Whatever the reason, I was able to pause in solitude at the viewpoints along the little peninsulas that jut into the lake, which I have not been able to do for many months.

Justice has been progressing with leaden feet as far as Donald Trump and Rudy Giuliani are concerned, but a measure of retribution has overtaken Giuliani at last.  He is now suspended from practicing law in New York state by an appellate court that found he made “demonstrably false and misleading statements” about the 2020 election.  Of course this judgment makes little difference to him financially and equally of course he has issued a blustery denial of wrong-doing; but at some level he must feel the impact of this rejection from his professional peers.  So one should never despair:  perhaps, after all, that sanguine hope I keep indulging about Giuliani (as well as his master) being reduced both in reputation and in fortune to utter destitution will come to pass eventually. 

Loudoun County has come into national prominence today:  specifically, a school board meeting in Ashburn, in which parents re-acted explosively to the school district’s proposed transgender policy, as well as to the claims that critical race theory is being rammed down students’ throats.  The Loudoun County school board has already come under fire about the transgender issue a month earlier, when Tanner Cross flatly refused to refer to biological boys as “she” and biological girls as “he.”  Cross is a physical education teacher, and by the very nature of his position he is familiar with the havoc that a transgender policy can wreak in locker rooms.  He was dismissed from his position in consequence of his refusal to back down, but a Virginia judge ruled that he had to be reinstated.  The school board meeting had to be closed abruptly as a result of the turmoil, which resulted in one person being arrested and charged with disorderly conduct and resisting arrest, and another cited for trespassing.  Brenda Sheridan, the Loudoun County school board chair, denies that critical race theory is part of the curriculum and says that teachers have merely undergone diversity training.   At all events, it appears that the trends being displayed by the Loudoun school board are a fair indication of what is going in public schools in the nation at large, and the trends are anything but wholesome ones.  It requires no gift of prophecy to foretell a great increase in homeschooling at this rate, as more and more parents revolt at the idea of racial division and sexual identity confusion being instilled in their children at an early age.

“Breakthrough” infections in fully vaccinated people accounted for fewer than 1,200 of more than 853,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations in the month of May, or about 0.1%; while about 150 of the more than 18,000 COVID-19 deaths in May were in fully vaccinated people, about 0.8%, or five deaths per day on average.  Currently the nation is averaging about 300 deaths per day, but it appears that this figure could be greatly reduced if the unvaccinated would receive vaccines.  But people are still resistant to the vaccine in various areas:  Arkansas, for instance, has only 33% of its population fully vaccinated, which is the lowest in the country.  Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington in Seattle, said modeling suggests the nation will hit 1,000 deaths per day again next year as the winter season approaches if a large segment of the population will not accept the vaccine.  At this point 56.2% of adults nationwide are fully vaccinated and 65.7% have received at least one dose; for seniors the figures are 77.4% and 87.5% respectively.  Virginia is doing slightly better than the national average, with 60.8% of adults fully vaccinated and 70.3% having received at least one dose.  Maryland is doing very well, with 73.4% of adults fully vaccinated and 76% having received at least one dose. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 180,746,276; # of deaths worldwide: 3,915,450; # of cases U.S.: 34,463,723; # of deaths; U.S.: 618,617.

The pandemic and personal diet – Decline in national birth rate – A slap on the wrist – John McAfee – Evening statistics

A friend has recently told me of an odd advantage that she received as a result of the pandemic.  Before the pandemic she chiefly obtained her meals from restaurants, frequently dining out on one night and then using leftovers for subsequent dinners.  When, at the onset of the pandemic, many restaurants closed, she fell back to cooking her meals on her own; and because she had greater control over the ingredients that went into the dishes she consumed and because she was no longer being served the extravagantly large portions for which American restaurants are famous, she was eating less and her diet was healthier.  She lost some weight and was all the fitter and trimmer in consequence.  I myself have missed the opportunity for dining out during the pandemic at its height; but it was only an occasional indulgence for me even before the pandemic began.  For those who up to this point relied on outside services to provide their meals, no doubt many have benefitted in the same way that my friend has done.

The pandemic has affected the country in more wide-ranging ways.  The CDC reports that as of December, 2020 – nine months after the pandemic was declared – our population showed an 8% decline in births in comparison with those of the previous year.  Births have been declining at the rate of about 2% per year for several years running, but anxiety about COVID-19 and economic impact may have played a role in people deciding to put off having children. 

The first sentence connected with the assault on the Capital was handed down today; and if there was any doubt that the rioters are being treated like members of a privileged class, this verdict must put them to rest.  Anna Morgan-Lloyd pleaded guilty to demonstrating in the Capitol building.  After this plea, the prosecutors dropped three other misdemeanor charges.  No felonies were included in the charges leveled against her.  She was ordered by the court to pay a $500 fine and to complete 40 hours of community service in addition to three years of probation.  She will not spend a single day in prison, nor be forced to pay any more than the cost of a new home workstation or of an airplane flight from Dulles to California.

John McAfee, the founder of McAfee Antivirus, was found dead in his cell in a Spanish prison, probably by suicide (there is a report that he hanged himself, but it is not yet confirmed).  The story of his life reads like a morality play.  He developed the most widely-used antivirus software in the late 1980s and became CEO of the company that promoted it.  In 1994, however, he tired of the business, resigned his position, and sold his shares in the company, realizing a fortune of $100 million.  And there, one would think, matters might have rested, he being able to lead an exceedingly comfortable, indeed lavish, lifestyle to the end of his days, merely by living on the interest of his wealth and not spending a penny of his capital.  Instead he went on a massive spending spree to acquire land parcels, mansions, artwork, automobiles, and so on, which quickly reduced his wealth; the housing bubble of 2008 made much of his land and house purchases all but worthless and by 2010 his assets had dwindled from $100 million to $4 million.  Even so, he had merely to accept his losses and reduce his expenditures in order to live well.  He did in fact move to Belize in an attempt to cut down on expenses; but other than that, he went on exactly as he had done before, residing in a house nearly as large as a castle and surrounding himself with an entourage of hangers-on and sycophants.  He also had numerous brushes with the law, including being questioned as a “person of interest” during an investigation of the murder of his next-door neighbor and being briefly imprisoned in the Dominican Republic for of carrying high-caliber weapons and ammunition on his yacht.  As the decade he wore on he became involved in a scam to raise more money:  this past March the Security Exchange Commission charged him with securities fraud, saying that he acquired $23 million in digital assets promoting Initial Coin Offerings (ICO) without disclosing that he was an investor in those ICOs.  From 2014 to 2018 he made an attempt at economy that did more credit to his thrift than to his prudence:  he did not file a single tax return, which prompted the IRS to launch an investigation against him.  He thereupon fled to Spain, where the authorities, after being contacted by the IRS, arrested him for tax evasion.  The U.S. was seeking for his extradition at the time of his death, and the Spanish government announced its intention to comply with the request just hours before his death was discovered.  

It takes a strong head to withstand the effects of a great amount of wealth acquired in a short time, and poor McAfee did not possess it.  Like the Spanish Empire during the latter part of the 17^th century, his life fell into a state of collapse as a result of too great an influx of gold.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 180,337,903; # of deaths worldwide: 3,906,593; # of cases U.S.: 34,447,852; # of deaths; U.S.: 618,272.

Hiking in Old Rag – Dealing with the unvaccinated in the Philippines and in Pakistan – Crisis in Malaysia – RIP Hong Kong democracy – Democrats in difficulties – Evening statistics

I returned to Old Rag, the celebrated rock scramble of our area, with the Vigorous Hikers today, despite the rain threatened by the weather forecast.  We started a little past 8:30 and I hastened over the rocky portion that begins after ascending the first 1500 feet, wishing to reach the summit before the rain began.  It began, in fact, just as I was in the last stages of the ascent, and those who came only a few minutes after I did told me that the rocks had become very slick in that short interval.  Seven of us went up to the summit and then waited at the Byrd’s Nest shelter for the others; but eventually we decided to move on.  After going to the Old Rag Shelter towards the base of the Saddle Trail, we had lunch and proceeded to the intersection with the Weakley Hollow fire road.  Here we came to a decision point:  should we proceed along the original route that went up to the Corbin Mountain Trail and then descended to the Nicholson Hollow Trail for a longer circuit, or should we cut the hike short by turning along the Weakley Hollow fire road?  With the rashness and inexperience of youth, I was about to voice a preference for the second alternative, as it was still raining; but counsel from soberer and cooler heads prevailed and we accordingly trudged upward along the backside of Robertson Mountain to pursue the original route.  It proved to be the correct choice:  the rain tapered off eventually, the air remained fresh and cool, the vegetation along the Corbin Mountain Trail was in full leaf, as was appropriate for the beginning of summer.  The route involved three stream crossings, but the rain that occurred earlier was only about 0.2 inches in all, so that the boulders used to bridge all three of the crossing were well above the stream level.  The length of the hike was just over 14½ miles, which is slightly under the distances covered by hikes in this group, but it contained about 3870 feet of elevation gain to make up for whatever it may have lacked in mileage. 

Some political leaders have shown little inclination to promote anti-COVID vaccination, but President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines cannot be included in their number.  On the contrary, he has threatened to arrest Filipinos who refuse to be vaccinated and then to administer a vaccine to them by force, even though Justice Secretary Menardo Guevarra later acknowledged that there is no Philippine law criminalizing refusal to get vaccinated against the coronavirus.  The Philippines has not been unusually hard-hit by the virus in comparison with many other nations.  Only about 1.2% of its population have contracted the disease and its death toll is 215 per million, meaning that about 1.7% of virus cases have been fatal – quite a good record for a country with a population distributed over 7,500 islands and that is the 12^th-largest of all nations in the world, a record well below the global average.  Not all of those refusing to take the vaccines are anti-vaxxers; some are waiting for Western vaccines to become available.  Part of the reason for the relatively muted impact of the virus is the strictness with which preventative measures have been enforced.  The Philippines still has a strict mask mandate and, in addition, those who visit or work in hospitals must wear plastic face shields over their masks.  It has imposed a ban on arrivals from India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Oman and the United Arab Emirates until June 30^th.   Unfortunately, the vaccines are not readily available.  At this point less than 2% of the population are fully vaccinated and barely 6% have received their first dose.

Duterte is not the only one who is threatening drastic action against the unvaccinated:  the Sindh province in Pakistan said that civil servants who refuse to be vaccinated will not be paid from July onwards and in the Punjab province citizens who refuse vaccinations will have their mobile phones blocked.

Malaysia, once one of the countries with the best records with regard to coronavirus cases and virus-related deaths, has undergone a five-fold increase of cases since the beginning of the year.  The government in response has shut all schools, prohibited dining in restaurants, and banned social activities and inter-state travel, but has resisted calls for a full lockdown because of fears it would cause an economic catastrophe. Its government has set a goal of vaccinating 80% of its population by next year and has ramped up its inoculation program, with nearly 2.5 million of its 33 million people having received at least one dose of vaccine.

The autonomism that once characterized Hong Kong is now obliterated.  Its liberal Apple Daily newspaper, the only independent news outlet in the territory, streamed its last news program yesterday.  Apple Daily has been unable to pay its staff, as the Chinese government has frozen its financial assets. Last week, about 500 police officers raided the headquarters, arresting the editor-in-chief and four top executives.  Jimmy Lai, the founder of the newspaper, is in prison, perhaps for the remainder of his life (he is 72).  He has made numerous calls for full democracy in Hong Kong, and in consequence has been charged with violating national security and foreign collusion, which is the Chinese government’s standard response towards anyone whose point of view differs from its own.

I have spoken of the difficulties Republicans have been undergoing in reaching out to voters, but the Democrats are facing challenges of their own.  Crime has risen dramatically over the past year, and the Democrats are widely perceived as being indifferent to this issue.  The increase in homicides is 25% nationwide, with many urban centers showing much larger spikes:  30% in Miami and 50% in Atlanta.  Progressive activists among the Democrats continue to call for police reform – and it certainly is needed – but their “defund the police” slogan seems calculated to alienate voters who live in the areas most vulnerable to street violence.  Eric Adams, a former New York Police Department captain, is the front-runner for Democratic nomination for New York mayoral candidate.  He stigmatized this slogan as “left-wing dilettantism” and added that affluent young leftists ignore how working-class communities suffer the most when crime rates spike.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 179,905,280; # of deaths worldwide: 3,897,117; # of cases U.S.: 34,433,485; # of deaths; U.S.: 617, 845.

Trump’s Father’s Day greeting – The Republican Party’s decline in urban and suburban settings – The “lab leak” theory – Evening statistics

Ex-President Trump has shown, if any further proof is needed, that he is incapable of making what was meant to be a conciliatory gesture without vituperation.  The following is his greeting for Father’s Day:  “Happy Father’s Day to all, including the Radical Left, RINOs, and other Losers of the world. Hopefully, eventually, everyone will come together!”  One can imagine the eagerness of the “losers” to rally behind him after this warm demonstration of friendship.  But perhaps I am being unduly pessimistic; perhaps, after all, the great white dove of Peace will spread its wings wide over the parties of Trump’s adherents and his opponents, to the unspeakable defilement of its plumage.

Trump’s influence on the Republican Party is being felt; the GOP is struggling to elections not only in large cities but in their suburban communities.  Jerry Sanders, who was a Republican mayor of San Diego for two terms in earlier decades, and a moderate who worked with the Obama administration on urban policy, says that the current party is out of touch with metropolitan areas.  He himself left the party on January 7^th, following the mob attack on the Capitol.  The trends in Virginia seem to bear out his claims; it has become increasingly “blue” over the years, while states such as Georgia and Arizona, once firmly in the “red” category, have moved into purple battlegrounds as their largest cities and suburbs have expanded and have become more ethnically mixed.  One Democrat has no difficulty in explaining the cause of the Republican decline.  “It’s not the same Republican Party,” said Rep. Donald McEachin of Virginia. “Trump chased off a lot of moderate Republicans, so it’s a much smaller party.”  At the turn of the 21st century, Republican mayors governed cities such as New York, Los Angeles and San Diego, and Republicans occupied many of the gubernatorial seats in mid-Atlantic and New England states.  They are unable to do so now.  Since that time, according to Joseph Lhota, the former Metropolitan Transportation Authority chair who was the Republican nominee for mayor of New York in 2013, the GOP has “completely disappeared” as a force in metro politics.  Jim Himes of Connecticut, whose district is anchored in the wealthy suburbs of New York City, said an older version of the Republican Party, rooted in principles of limited government and support for environmentalism, could still have appeal there.  “They go back to that stuff, I’m in trouble,” he said.  The cheerful laugh with which he delivered that comment illustrated more clearly than words could have done how unlikely a prospect he considered it to be.

The “lab leak” hypothesis of the coronavirus emerging from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) rather than from a nearby live animal food market continues to gain momentum.  It is known that the WIV was actively doing research on coronaviruses in bats in late 2019 and early 2020, including the bats that carry a strain of SARS-CoV-2 that is the closest known relative to the Covid-19 virus itself.  The secrecy of the Chinese government, who at this point has not yet allowed independent, outside scientists full access to WIV to investigate, hasn’t helped matters.  That does not necessarily mean, however, that the virus was deliberately engineered by the Chinese government; indeed, it seems unlikely, considering that the first country affected was China itself, and there was no indication at the time that it could spread so quickly beyond its borders.  I refer to earlier entries in this journal alone, which record how long a time it took various authorities to look upon the virus as a major threat.  Accidents are rare, but they do happen periodically.  In addition, viruses, as the COVID-19 pandemic has reminded us, can mutate of their own accord very quickly.  The WIV has long embarked on the highly dangerous “gain of function” method of research, which deliberately makes viruses or bacteria more harmful than they are in their natural form (there are numerous laboratories in the U.S. that use this line of research as well, without any restrictions from the CDC).  Experiments could easily have produced a strain that infected humans.  A lab employee who was accidentally infected with such a strain without being aware of it and then mingling with the populace at large would have been sufficient to start the pandemic.  In short, before we rush to discover deep-laid plots on the part of foreign governments, we must not disregard the sage advice of that celebrated philosopher, Lucy Van Pelt of Charles Schultz’s Peanuts:

“Have you ruled out stupidity?”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 179,532,349; # of deaths worldwide: 3,888,306; # of cases U.S.: 34,418,935; # of deaths; U.S.: 617,443.

A hike for the solstice – Blood pressure medications – Gender-affirming operations – Dr. John Money and his victim – Evening statistics

It is the summer solstice today, and a group of us celebrated it accordingly by hiking through the Massanuttens in heat that touched 90 degrees and beyond.  We will have to get accustomed to the heat, which will last for the next three months.  The hike route went from Elizabeth Furnace up to the ridge via the Shawl Gap Trail, then used the Massanutten Trail to traverse the ridge for over two miles, and descended back via the Sherman Gap Trail and the Botts Trail.  For those who desired it there was an additional there-and-back along the Massanutten Trail to an impressive overlook that views the Shenandoah Valley in an area where the Shenandoah meanders in numerous oxbows.  The main loop is about 9 miles, with 1800 feet of elevation; the excursion to the overlook adds slightly over a mile each way, and about 400 feet of additional elevation gain.  The Shawl Gap Trail is very well-graded and would have been quite a moderate hike under cooler conditions, but the heat made it seem more difficult than it actually was.  Similarly, the Massanutten Trail has numerous ups and downs, none of them exceptionally steep; but the trail is rocky and at this time of the year is overgrown.  The luxuriant forest growth is at its height:  leaves thrust themselves in careless disarray in every direction, tendrils from vines hang from the stems to trail the ground.  We had an adventure, also appropriate to the season, when we encountered a rattlesnake on the trail, basking in the heat (it is the sort of weather that they love) and, to all appearances, resting on the ground underneath the bushes after having feasted on prey.  It was evident, at any rate, that it had no intention of moving, and so we were forced to bushwhack off of the trail slightly for a few yards in order to bypass it.  And after the hike, as usual, we ate and drank together as we sat alongside the extensive parking area of Elizabeth Furnace.  The area had several visitors, although few of them appeared to be attempting a hike on such a scale; many were taking a dip in Passage Creek, which flows in parallel to the Botts Trail. 

There was an issue with one member of the group, who had been prescribed medication for high blood pressure.  The physicians who prescribe such medications appear to assume that their patients will remain completely sedentary.  When one undertakes strenuous exercise, such as the one I have just described, medications taken to lower blood pressure will not always have very beneficial results.  The hiker became faint and weary early in the hike and had to turn back.  Physicians, it seems to me, should take such factors into account and be more specific about when such medications should and should not be taken.  I have often encountered hikers in similar difficulties on account of blood pressure medication taken in conjunction with strenuous exertions.

The Veterans’ Administration is moving to make gender-affirming surgeries covered by the department’s healthcare.  Gender-affirming surgeries include operations such as vaginoplasty, phalloplasty, scrotoplasty, masculinizing chest surgery, facial feminine procedures, reduction thyrochondroplasty, voice modification, facial hair removal, genital tucking and packing, and chest binding.

I suppose my opinion of such procedures is readily discernible.  They remind me of nothing as much as the character of Mr. Brocklehurst, the sanctimonious cleric in Jane Eyre who governs Lowood Orphanage with an iron rod, as he reacts to the discovery that one of the girls in his charge has curly red hair:

“Suddenly his eye gave a blink, as if it had met something that either dazzled or shocked its pupil; turning, he said in more rapid accents than he had hitherto used –

“’Miss Temple, Miss Temple, what – what is that girl with curled hair? Red hair, ma’am, curled – curled all over?’ And extending his cane he pointed to the awful object, his hand shaking as he did so.

“’It is Julia Severn,’ replied Miss Temple, very quietly.

“’Julia Severn, ma’am! And why has she, or any other, curled hair? Why, in defiance of every precept and principle of this house, does she conform to the world so openly – here in an evangelical, charitable establishment – has to wear her hair one mass of curls?’

“’Julia’s hair curls naturally,’ returned Miss Temple, still more quietly.

“’Naturally! Yes, but we are not to conform to nature.’”

And in pursuance with this pious resolution that the girls in the orphanage be “children of grace” despite their naturally luxuriant tresses, he orders the hair of every single member of the first-form class to be cropped short.

My objection to surgeries such as these and the entire concept of transgendering generally has nothing to do with anti-same-sex bias:  what people do in their bedrooms is none of my business and I certainly have never set myself up as someone with the authority to disapprove of it.  As long as there is mutual consent, men and women may sleep with anyone they like.  But mutilations such as these serve no useful purpose and can be actively harmful.  People who undergo them do not physically change their genders, despite claims to the contrary; but they can injure themselves irretrievably.  Effects to such surgeries can include delayed wound healing, fluid accumulation beneath the skin (seroma), solid swelling of clotted blood within your tissues (hematoma), changes in skin sensation such as persistent pain, tingling, reduced sensation or numbness, damaged or dead body tissue (tissue necrosis), such as in the nipple and in the surgically created penis (neophallus), blood clots in a deep vein (deep vein thrombosis) or in a lung (pulmonary embolism), abnormal connection between two body parts (fistula), such as in the urinary tract, urinary problems such as incontinence, pelvic floor dysfunction, permanent scarring – and this is only a partial list.

And in this connection may be mentioned the case of Dr. John Money (most appropriately named, for he reaped a fortune from his fraudulent claims about sexual malleability), who urged the parents of David Reimer to be raised as a girl after the latter’s penis was severely injured beyond repair during a botched circumcision in infancy.  The parents duly acquiesced in the recommendation that Reimer at the age of 22 months be given bilateral orchidectomy, in which his testes were surgically removed and a rudimentary vulva was fashioned.  Nonetheless, despite their attempts to raise him as a girl, he never identified as one.  “Brenda,” as the child was now called, angrily tore off her dresses at the age of 2. “She” refused to play with dolls and would beat up her brother and seize his toy cars and guns.  In school, she was relentlessly teased for her masculine gait, tastes, and behaviors.  When, at the age of 14, Brenda made the discovery of having been a boy at birth, he elected to undergo treatment (very painful treatment) to reverse the sexual reassignment, including testosterone injections, a double mastectomy, and phalloplasty operations.  Unsurprisingly, the turmoil he underwent during his childhood and adolescence led to periodic depression and he attempted suicide twice in early 20s.  The effort to conceal the secret about his true gender for years left its mark on other family members as well:  his mother  also attempted suicide; her father lapsed into mute alcoholism; his neglected twin brother Brian eventually descended into drug use, petty crime, and clinical depression.  Brian eventually was to die through an overdose of anti-depressants.  David managed to marry a woman with three children, whom he adopted; but his explosive anger, his cyclical depressions, his fears of abandonment all imposed heavy strains on his marriage.  She bore with him patiently for 14 years, but his spiraling depression at last drove her to suggest to him that they separate for a time.  He stormed out of the house in response and committed suicide two days later.  Such were the consequences of the determination of a latter-day Brocklehurst “not to conform to nature.”

Hmm . . . I seem to have ranged rather far afield from the coronavirus, haven’t I?  In truth it appears to be winding down at last, at any rate in this country.  Today our death toll was less than 100, the first time that this has happened in many months.  We accounted for only 1.5% of the daily new cases and for just under 1.5% of the daily new deaths.  But the pandemic appears to be declining on a global level, despite hots spots here and there.  Even in India the number of new cases today was barely over 53,000 – not a trivial number, admittedly, but a far cry from the 300,000-400,000 range per day earlier in the spring.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 179,239,054; # of deaths worldwide: 3,881,437; # of cases U.S.: 34,405,933; # of deaths; U.S.: 617,166.

Good news from Guinea – Two long-haul COVID cases – A drastic remedy – Unusual claims about the vaccines – The situation in Afghanistan – Evevning statistics

The COVID pandemic is not over, but the Ebola outbreak in West Africa is.  Unlike the previous Ebola epidemic, which lasted well over a year and killed more than 11,000 people, this outbreak was confined to 16 confirmed cases and 7 probable cases in Guinea, with a total of 12 deaths.  Ebola, as the figures indicate, is a far deadlier disease than COVID, but it is also much less transmissible.  In addition, the government of Guinea profited by the lessons learned from the previous pandemic:   rapid, coordinated response efforts, community engagement, effective public health measures and the equitable use of vaccines enabled it to contain the disease within the country’s borders and to reduce its effects to a minimum in the space of four months. 

It is easy to sound optimistic after the strides we have made since January, but the effects of the virus have not ended yet, as the following two sad stories indicate:

Jason Kelk has died of complications from COVID.  His name is not familiar here, but he is well-known to Britons, being one of the first COVID patients in the U.K. and one of those who suffered the most from the disease.  He was hospitalized in March, 2020.  He was already afflicted with Type 2 diabetes and asthma, and when the virus damaged his kidneys and lungs, he was bedridden from that time.  In addition, he developed stomach complications that necessitated his being fed intravenously.  Earlier this year he appeared to be recovering, starting to walk and coming off a ventilator and a 24-hour kidney filter, and he had progressed to the point of ingesting tea and soup.  Then his condition worsened in May. He had to be put back on a ventilator, after which he developed two new infections.  In the end he gave up, deciding to withdraw from treatment and to transfer himself to a hospice.  The relatives he left behind include eight grandchildren, two of whom he never was able to meet because they were born in the past year and could not be taken on visits to the hospital where he was treated.

Another victim, Heidi Ferrer, is more well-known in this country, being a writer for “Dawson’s Creek.”  Technically speaking, the cause of her death was not COVID but suicide; but it was induced by her experiences as a “long-haul” COVID patient.  She first contracted the disease in April, 2020, and by June she was bedridden and virtually immobile on account of several veins bursting in her foot.  She apparently recovered in August, 2020, but eventually her symptoms recurred and began to worsen to the point that she was unable to walk.  By May, 2021 she was bedridden again and in continual pain.  After 13 months of struggling she, like Jason Kelk, decided that she had had enough.  It was not an impulsive decision made during a momentary depression; she had been contemplating suicide for some time as her condition failed to improve, and she deliberately set her financial arrangements in order and completed a memoir that detailed her experiences with COVID before taking her own life.

Joshua Garza, another patient, has not died from COVID, but after declining to receive the vaccine in January he contracted the disease, which ended up by attacking his lungs and necessitating a double lung transplant.  He successfully underwent the surgery on April 13^th and was able to regain his strength to the point of being released from the hospital on May 27^th.  “It was quick, it was within three weeks, the lungs were already shot,” said Garza afterwards.  “They’re telling you your lungs are failing, so you don’t know if you’re going to go to bed tonight and wake up tomorrow.”  Lung transplants are a rare intervention for COVID patients but Garza’s experience is not unique:  Houston Methodist, the hospital at which he was treated, has already performed eight double lung transplants on COVID-19 patients, and has several more patients who are on life support while they await transplants.

Although, as my inclusion of this last story might indicate, I am a great believer in the efficacy of the COVID vaccines, I do not support all of the claims that some of their adherents advance.  Ramdas Shet, from the Indian state of Karnataka, released a video (which has since gone viral) claiming that the vaccine has endowed him with magnetism and that metal objects have been sticking to him of their own accord ever since he received his first dose.  He and people making similar claims have received offers of up to £1000 if they can validate their condition.  At least the reaction in India is one of approval.  Sherri Tenpenny, a physician in the Cleveland area and an anti-vaxxer, has urged in support of her views a claim that spoons have stuck to people who have received the vaccine; and Joanna Overholt, who previously worked in an intensive care unit and is currently a nurse practitioner student, spoke during Tuesday’s Ohio House Health Committee hearing in an effort to support the good doctor’s assertion by sticking a key and bobby pin to her skin.  “Explain to me why the key sticks to me. It sticks to my neck, too,” Overholt said. “If somebody could explain this, that would be great.”  Since both of these fell off shortly afterwards, I proffer the explanation of pressure from her fingers while her hand was still within a few millimeters from her body as she first applied these objects to her skin.

Amid the reports about how the virus has unfolded in India and Nepal, there is another country in the region that has been overlooked:  Afghanistan.  The number of COVID patients there has risen exponentially within the past few weeks, the hospitals have the familiar shortages of beds and of oxygen canisters, and only one million doses of the vaccine have been administered in this country of 36 million people.  The WHO estimates that about 10 million people have contracted the disease since February.  Officially the reported figures are about 37,000 cases to date and 1,300 COVID-related deaths; but since only 90,000 Afghanis have undergone testing since the pandemic began, these figures are almost certainly gross under-estimates.  Needless to say,  the ongoing internal conflict between the government and Taliban militants also makes the pandemic impossible to control. More than half the districts in Afghanistan are controlled by the militant group, and hardly any tests are available in these regions. The majority of the populace have also largely ignored physical distancing recommendations by health officials.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 178,936,789; # of deaths worldwide: 3,874,803; # of cases U.S.: 34,401,206; # of deaths; U.S.: 617,079.

Mike Pence besieged again – American vaccinations – International travel – Evening statistics

Mike Pence was roundly booed today at a so-called “Christian” conference (specifically, the Faith & Freedom Coalition’s “Road to Majority” conference in Kissimmee, FL) because he did not undermine the process that ratified Biden’s victory on January 6^th (and indeed he never had the legal power to do so, even in the unlikely event that he wished for it).  He was saluted with such epithets as “traitor” and “Judas” and “King of the Jews” – no, wait, that last one was shouted at a different event.  It’s not that I regard Pence as another Christ figure, surely I cannot be the only one who believes that the members of this crowd are spiritual descendants of those who cried out “Give us Barabbas!” on a certain occasion in the 1^st century AD.

Americans have received about three hundred million vaccination shots within the past five months that Biden has been in office.  The pace of vaccinations is still slowing, notably in the Southern states, and the fraction of adults who have received at least one dose will probably be about 67% on July 4^th at this rate, rather than the 70% Biden had targeted.  Still, over 55% of all adults have been fully vaccinated.  The figures for seniors are especially encouraging:  77% are fully vaccinated and over 87% have received more than one dose.  The most vulnerable segment of the population might therefore be said to be well-protected.  Both Biden and Harris are vigorously campaigning for more people to receive their doses.  Those who receive only one dose are much more likely than those who are fully vaccinated to contract the so-called Delta variant, which the CDC describes as a “variant of concern” and which accounts for 99% of new cases in the U.K.

The U.S., as well as Albania, Hong Kong, Lebanon, Macau, the Republic of Northern Macedonia, Serbia, and Taiwan, has been added to a so-called “white list” of countries whose residents may travel to nations in the European Union, provided that they are vaccinated.  This does not mean, of course, that international travel will return to normal in the near future.  There are several dozen countries that the CDC rates as “Level 4,” in which COVID is so virulent that travel to them should be avoided by the vaccinated and unvaccinated alike.  Countries such as Belgium, Lithuania, the Netherlands, and Sweden are included in this category; so, interestingly, is North Korea, even though it officially has no recorded COVID cases.  Clearly the CDC does not place much credence on such claims.  France, where a group of us had originally planned to visit in September is now in the “Level 3” category, acceptable for traveling among vaccinated visitors but not recommended for unvaccinated ones.  The trip was canceled on account of the uncertainty as to whether or not travelers would have to spend time in quarantine after deplaning.  It now appears that we could have undertaken the trip after all, but I am just as well satisfied to defer international travel until the situation settles down there a bit and the number of people vaccinated in European and Asian countries increases. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 178,584,785; # of deaths worldwide: 3,866,607; # of cases U.S.: 34,392,666; # of deaths; U.S.: 616,904.

Unemployment claims – Two hiker tales – Fighting in Myanmar intensifies – The July 4^th goal – Evening statistics

Claims for unemployment have increased slightly, although the numbers remain close to the pandemic low.  Over 559,000 workers found employment this past month.  Employers posted a record 9.3 million job openings in April, close to the number of unemployed Americans in the workforce.  But we still have a way to go to be restored to the pre-pandemic levels of employment.  There are approximately 7 million jobs that will have to be recovered.  The economy is steadily strengthening, but it remains to be seen what will transpire at the end of the month, when about half the country’s states will terminate the enhanced benefits created on account of the pandemic. 

The dismembered body of an unidentified woman has been found in Catoctin Mountain Park.  Her remains were found close to one of the established trails, within a mile of the Camp David presidential retreat.  The proximity to Camp David appears to be fortuitous.  The authorities say that her body had been in the park for about a month.  The cause of death is still undetermined.  It is a shocking story in more ways than one; I and many of my friends have visited the park on numerous occasions, and one doesn’t generally associate a peaceful forest setting with crime, particularly one so gruesome.  But it certainly is feasible to conceal a body there for weeks or even months during this season; the dense foliage makes it possible. 

Another hiker story has ended more happily.  Fina Kiefer was hiking on the Pioneer Ridge Trail some 40-odd miles northeast of Anchorage when she was chased off of the trail by bears.  She was able to ward them off by using bear spray but afterwards she was unable to locate the trail again.  A search was launched but nothing could be found after 35 hours and it had to be called off as weather conditions deteriorated.  The trail is 13.6 miles there-and-back, with at least 5,200 feet of elevation gain.  Nonetheless, somehow she managed to descend the Chugach Mountains and make her way back to the road that leads to the trailhead, where she was spotted by a pair of drivers.  She had equipped herself with waterproof matches as well as bear spray, and thus was able to start a fire to keep her sufficiently warm at night. 

A village in Myanmar has been burned to the ground by the militia forces as the fighting between the junta and the opposition escalates.  Kin Ma, a village of about 800 people in the Magway Region, now has only about 30 houses still standing, while the other 200 have been reduced to piles of ash and bricks.  It is one of many casualties in the struggle there.  Exact figures are impossible to obtain, but at this point it appears that about 860 civilians have been killed in the conflict.

At this point 65% of all American adults have received at least one dose.  This means that if Biden’s goal of 70% of American adults getting at least one dose by July 4^th is to be reached, nearly 13 million will have to receive a vaccine within the next two weeks.  In the past week the average has been about 1 million administrations of the vaccines per day.  So the goal still seems achievable, provided the pace of vaccinations does not decline further.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 178,178,128; # of deaths worldwide: 3,857,302; # of cases U.S.: 34,375,573; # of deaths; U.S.: 616,422.

On the Appalachian Trail – The pace of vaccination – Jubilant mood in California – Easing of restrictions in other states – The virus in India, Brazil, and Nepal – Effects of COVID in North Korea – An odd side effect of the virus – Evening statistics

There has been a delay in resuming the journal entries.  I had little access to the Internet during the stay in Kings Canyon/Sequoia, and there is always much to do after returning from a trip.  In addition, I went with the Vigorous Hikers yesterday along the Appalachian Trail from Panorama to Elkwallow and back, which is nearly 18 miles with about 3000 feet of elevation gain, so I was rather tired after driving back home again.  The hike itself was very pleasant.  The section of the AT has no especially outstanding features, but it goes through dense forest with many wildflowers at all seasons (at this time of year the columbines were especially numerous and various clusters of mountain laurel were still in bloom) and the temperature was pleasantly cool.  I understand that the weather in the area had been extremely hot the week before, while I was traveling, but for the past few days it has been all that could be desired, not overly humid, and warm rather than hot. 

The pace of vaccination is slowing down, but at this point nearly 65% of all American adults have received at least one dose and nearly 55% have been fully vaccinated.  It is not a bad result, although of course one hopes that the figures will increase during the following weeks.  I entered several stores today and each one posted a notice stating that non-vaccinated customers were the only ones who needed to wear masks.  There is no attempt at enforcement, however.  It is all done on the honor system, and my guess is that many non-vaccinated shoppers will not bother to comply. 

The majority of states have eased restrictions or ended them altogether.  Most notably, California has just lifted its mask mandate and its social distancing guidelines.  More than 70% of the state’s adults have received at least one dose and its current infection rate has been under 1% for more than six weeks, one of the lowest in the country.  Businesses and counties can still require masks and impose other restrictions, but most businesses said they would rely on the honor system when it comes to determining whether patrons are vaccinated.  Museums, however, are still requiring its visitors to wear masks.  Disneyland will admit out-of-state visitors for the first time since March, 2020; while in San Francisco the cable cars, which were halted at the start of the pandemic, will start running again in August and rides will be free all month.

New York also has seen at least 70% of its adults receive at least one dose, and restrictions there have been lifted as well.  Not many states have restrictions in effect at this point and those that do plan to lift them soon.  Washington is scheduled to lift all restrictions by June 30^th, and Maryland and Michigan by July 1^st. New Mexico will set to end its restrictions by July 1^st if it reaches a 60% vaccination rate by then. Currently 59.5% of adults in the state have gotten at least one dose of the vaccine.  Hawaii will drop all restrictions once it reaches a 70% vaccination rate; it currently is at 68.5%

In other countries the pandemic is still creating much distress.  It is waning in India, but the nation’s case count is now close to our own.  Moreover, the five-week lockdown has ended and crowds are thronging again all over the country, prompting fears of yet another wave of the virus.  Only 5% of the country’s population has been inoculated at this point.  Similarly, Brazil’s death toll is nearly as large as ours; in proportion to its population, its mortality rate is 25% higher than that of the U.S.  And that, of course, takes into account only the official statistics.  The actual figures, as most Brazilian medical authorities agree, are probably much higher.  Brazil’s rate of vaccination is higher than India’s, but even so, less than 12% of the population has been fully vaccinated.  Bolsonaro continues to display the same insouciance that has characterized him throughout the crisis; on Saturday he led a motorcycle rally in which he and his supporters wore no masks.  The city of Sao Paolo in response has fined him for violation of its mask mandate, which has been in place since May, 2020.  In Nepal, about 40% of COVID tests are coming back positive.  It can take up to two weeks to get test results and in the meantime an infected person can easily spread the virus to many community members. Again, the figures for vaccination are low; only about 3% of the country’s population has been inoculated.

Although North Korea officially has no reported COVID cases, Kim Jong Un warned about possible food shortages and urged the country to brace for extended COVID-19 restrictions.  The economy at this point is in a shambles.  Pandemic border closures have choked off trade with China, while devastating typhoons and floods during the previous summer has decimated crops.  It must be said that Kim Jong Un, unlike several other dictators, has taken the COVID threat seriously.  He has closed borders despite the economic hardships such a step entails, and he has enforced measures such as social distancing.  The country has a surprisingly large number of doctors, even if they are less skilled and experienced than their Western counterparts, and the level of personal hygiene is superior to that of many Third World countries.  The claim of the country’s having no instances of COVID is doubtful, but it seems likely that the virus has been contained more readily there for the same reason that it has been in Vietnam:  the government rules with an iron fist and few of its citizens would attempt to flout any regulations it decides to impose.

It’s not exactly a crippling loss, but one of the odd effects of the coronavirus is a glut of unsold Girl Scout cookies.  During the recent spring selling season, many troops decided not to set up the traditional cookie booths in order not to endanger the health of their members.  The Girl Scouts organization forecasted lower sales for this year; but, even so, they were over-optimistic in placing their orders to the bakers.  About 15 million extra boxes were left over as the season wore down.  About 12 million of these remain with the two professional baking firms, Little Brownie Bakers and ABC Bakers.  An additional 3 million remain with the various Girl Scout Councils, who are struggling to sell them.  They are pressed for time in this effort:  the cookies have a 12-month shelf life. 

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 177,362,048; # of deaths worldwide: 3,836,821; # of cases U.S.: 34,350,201; # of deaths; U.S.: 615,679. 

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 177,787,170; # of deaths worldwide: 3,848,157; # of cases U.S.: 34,366,073; # of deaths; U.S.: 616,144.