April 21, 2020

Morning statistics – Hiking on the Green Mountain Trail and in Seven Bends State Park – Social distancing not observed on the freeways – Rumors circulating about Kim Jong-un – Ban on immigration – Validity of the virus challenged – The virus triumphantly meets the test – The sourdough starter is a non-starter

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 2,554,568; # of deaths worldwide: 177,402; # of cases U.S.: 817,952; # of deaths U.S.: 45,279.  China’s number of active cases is now just over 1,000 – always assuming that their data can be believed. 

Today the Vigorous Hikers covered the Green Mountain area and the Seven Bends State Park.  I have been hiking in the region for years but I am not familiar with either.  The Seven Bends State Park is new, so it is not surprising that I haven’t been there before.  I was in the Green Mountain area once previously, but only on a trail shared by hikers and ATVs; the experience with ATVs whizzing by the hikers without mufflers was so unpleasant that I’ve been avoiding the area ever since.  However, the trail was closed to ATVs for repairs, and the ascent along the Green Mountain Trail was unfamiliar to me.  After we reached the Massanutten Trail and had lunch, we descended to Seven Bends State Park.  There is still work to be done; several of the trails do not have blazes.  But the ascent from the park back up to the Massanutten Trail was magnificent.  We certainly practiced social distancing; there were eleven of us in all and we walked in groups of four or less.  And we encountered no one else on the trails, except at the end:  during the descent from the Massanutten Trail along the Wagon Road there was a group of five teenagers sitting together and smoking, doubtless in an attempt to fortify their lungs against the virus. 

Some government tests have indicated that sunlight destroys the virus quickly; if so, hiking out of doors appears to be more beneficial than ever. 

Driving back and forth to the trailhead via the freeways has demonstrated that social distancing does not apply to behavior on the roads.  Drivers still prefer tailgating to passing, even when the passing lane to the left is clear for miles on end.

Kim Jong-Un is rumored to be in surgery.  I have to say “rumored” because there is no way of getting verifiable news from North Korea.  He certainly was absent from the annual ceremonies in honor of his grandfather, the founder of the dynasty.  And even though he is only 36, he leads a very unhealthy lifestyle, over-indulging in food, in drink, in sex – in everything, in short. 

Trump has imposed a total ban on immigration.  The Democrats, who have been justifiably critical of Trump’s handling of the virus crisis for months, are now gathering in opposition against him for employing this elementary precaution.  In light of the knowledge of how the virus is transmitted, the less travel between nations the better.  The Democrats are no more to be trusted than Trump is, though they may be less inconsistent.

“Does anybody have the guts to say this COVID-19 is a political ploy? Asking for a friend. Prove me wrong.”  Thus John W. McDaniel, from Ohio, in protest against the lockdown.  This easy assertion, whose sweepingness commands a certain admiration, was posted on March 13th.  He contracted the virus and died a few days later on April 15th.  I suppose he might consider that to be proof; unfortunately he’s not in a position to assess it.

The sourbread starter has not turned out well.  I tried making a couple of loaves from it.  It had a good flavor but it simply did not rise enough, even though I kneaded it thoroughly.  There is still some starter left over, so I will let it ripen a bit and then try it again.

April 20, 2020

Morning statistics – Shooting rampage in Canada – The sourdough starter in progress – Shakespeare on bread-making – The Government’s insatiable appetite for paper – Drive-in movies – Two teenaged bigots – The death of a firefighter’s child – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 2,419,724; # of deaths worldwide: 165,799; # of cases U.S.: 764,235; # of deaths U.S.: 40,565.  In Spain the case count is over 200,000 and the death count is nearly 21,000.  In Belgium the number of deaths is nearly 6000, or more than 1 in every 2000 per capita.  However, this may be due to how Belgium reports its deaths.  All deaths in nursing homes at this point are automatically attributed to the virus, whereas less than 10% of these are confirmed to be the result of COVID-19.  Since over 50% of the deaths occurred in nursing homes, this method of counting can only lead to skewed data.  It’s one thing to cover your bases and err on the side of caution in order to get the effects of the virus under control; it’s quite another to inflate data until it becomes meaningless.  The country is following a general lifting of lockdown measures just like its neighbors, which suggests that the virus is somewhat less severe there than the statistics would indicate.  Evidently the Belgians themselves don’t place much stock in their own data.

A shooting rampage has occurred in Nova Scotia, in a small town near Halifax.  The perpetrator disguised himself as a policeman and shot 16 people in their homes, apparently at random.  It is not known whether the virus was a contributing factor (if, for example, the lockdown caused him to lose his job). 

Our national debt now exceeds $24 trillion, which is greater than our gross national product – the first time this condition has occurred since WWII.

I’m making progress on the sourdough starter.  This morning the mixture acquired the sponge-like appearance described in the cookbook.  I have added milk and flour to double the amount (otherwise I would have to go through the process of creating a starter again the next time I wanted to bake bread) and am waiting for it to become spongy again.  Starters take a long time to make.  I had to pour out a glassful of milk and wait two days for it to sour; then, after adding the flour, I had to wait another two days for the mixture to become spongy.  The method for making bread will actually require the better part of another two days.  One has to use the starter to make a batter, let it rise overnight, and then complete the process the next day, which means adding more flour, kneading, shaping the loaves, and baking them.  Making a loaf of bread can be an intricate process, as Shakespeare noted in Troilus and Cressida:

PANDARUS:  He that will have a cake out of the wheat must tarry the grinding.
TROILUS:  Have I not tarried?
PANDARUS:  Ay, the grinding, but you must tarry the bolting.
TROILUS:  Have I not tarried?
PANDARUS:  Ay, the bolting, but you must tarry the leavening.
TROILUS:  Still have I tarried.
PANDARUS:  Ay, to the leavening but here’s yet in the word hereafter the kneading, 
the making of the cake, the heating the oven, and the baking.  Nay, you must stay
the cooling too, or ye may chance burn your lips.

(Incidentally, this discussion about bread-making is actually an extended metaphor for Troilus’ desire to bed Pandarus’ niece, and that last reference to burning one’s lips contains a suggestion of venereal disease.  Shakespeare never missed out on an opportunity to be bawdy.)

I had to fax some forms this morning and I was worried as to whether the UPS store would be open.  My concerns were groundless; it is considered an essential service and was operating as usual.  The personnel there were not even wearing face masks.

The forms that I sent were filled out on my mother’s behalf for the Veterans Administration to claim survivor benefits.  My father died this past November and I have been filling out forms for my mother since that time.  I initially had to supply fifty pages of documentation to the VA.  But that, apparently, was insufficient; since that time the accountants have been sending me one form after another to fill out, and when I do so and turn it in, they send me a request for an additional form.  This process has been going on for six months.  Their appetite for paper seems to be insatiable.  In my mother’s case it is less of an issue than for many others.  I have the energy to pursue the matter for her and, since I am retired, I have the leisure as well.  But I have to wonder what happens to the surviving spouses of military men and women who similarly elderly and infirm.  If they don’t get outside assistance, they will be unable to handle the paperwork themselves and consequently they will be deprived of the benefits that they should be receiving.

Drive-in movies may be making a comeback. It obviously is impractical to attempt to run movies in theatres as long as the measures prohibiting large gatherings remain in force.  But if the movies are to be distributed at all, it seems likely that drive-ins will be the answer.  Actually, the current conditions are merely accelerating an existing trend.  Movie theatres have had to face declines in attendance as it has become continually easier to view movies on workstations at home.  It is possible that drive-ins will be a temporary fix only and that once the stay-at-home restrictions are lifted people will revert to watching movies in theatres or at home again.  But it is not a certainty.  People might discover a type of communal enjoyment in watching films in this manner, and the demand for drive-ins could conceivably increase.  If so, it would one of the many unexpected consequences of the pandemic’s aftermath.

Jeffery Hume and Stephanie Freeman, two high school students from Georgia, posted an absolutely disgusting video denigrating African-Americans on TikTok, a video-sharing network.  It is truly remarkable in its way:  one does not expect to see such concentrated malevolence in youngsters not yet eighteen.  The video went “viral,” as the term goes, and this precious pair discovered belatedly that bad actions have bad consequences.  In addition to receiving some well-earned abuse from various viewers, they have been expelled from their high school without the prospect of graduating and getting their diplomas.  Hume, who is a junior wrestler, has been excluded from WWA4, the wrestling organization.  Freeman tried to do some damage control by posting some rather lame apologies, the sincerity of which has been questioned by numerous commentators.  I believe, however, that she truly is sorry for having made a fool of herself on such an enormous scale, for there is nothing as ridiculous as having been found out.  It seems that she has since contracted the coronavirus, giving her the dubious distinction of being the only person afflicted with the illness for whom I cannot feel the slightest sympathy.

Another sad story:  Skylar Herbert, the daughter of a first-responder firefighter, died of the virus at the age of five.  It is not clear how she contracted the virus.  Her father showed symptoms and was tested for COVID-19, but the results were inconclusive.  She herself has been kept at home for weeks and had no pre-existing conditions.  But whatever the reason, she fell ill, was tested, and shown to be positive.  In her case the virus developed into meningitis.  Viral meningitis, as opposed to bacterial meningitis, has a lower mortality rate; but of course a five-year old child does not have the level of resistance common to adults.  It is heart-breaking to look at the photos shown in the articles about her.  She appears to have been of a happy disposition – not merely smiling for the camera, but smiling as a result of a natural zest for life.  She showed promise of beauty as well.  The case occurred in one of the areas in Detroit – in the entire state for that matter – hardest hit by the virus.  In the meantime protestors have been besieging Lansing with cries to rescind the lockdown. 

Today’s statistics as of 10:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 2,481,287; # of deaths worldwide: 170,436; # of cases U.S.: 792,759; # of deaths U.S.: 42,514. 

April 19, 2020

Morning statistics – Pence at U.S. Air Force Academy – Nick Cordero – Potential under-reporting of the virus – Plans for re-opening in Texas – The fragile economy of New Jersey beaches – Potential for increase of tele-commuting continuing after lifting of restrictions – Social distancing somewhat more carefully observed – A beautiful spring season – A strange accident – Trump vs. the state governors – Tony Spell as schnorrer – Possibility of customers forced to rely totally on deliveries to obtain groceries – Kenya – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 2,349,516; # of deaths worldwide: 161,251; # of cases U.S.: 738,923; # of deaths U.S.: 39,015.  Spain’s number of cases is nearly 200,000 and its number of deaths is over 20,000 – quite significant for a country whose population is a little under 47,000,000.  Nonetheless it has reported that it has had the fewest number of new virus-related deaths this past day for over a month.  In Italy the lockdown will be lifted on May 3rd.  But traveling to the country will not be feasible for at least a couple of months after that.  Since a significant amount of Italy’s economy depends on tourism, the country will have a difficulty recovery period.  The United Kingdom also has a high death rate; at 13.5%, it is the highest in Europe, excluding the microstates.  Turkey’s number of cases now exceeds Iran’s – assuming, of course, that Iran’s data can be trusted.  Officially, at any rate, Turkey now has the highest number of cases in the Mideast. 

Vice President Pence has given a commencement address to the cadets of the U. S. Air Force Academy.  The members of the audience were placed eight feet from one another and they all wore face masks.  Normally the ceremony is attended by 46,000 people, but on this occasion the amount of distance that the audience members had to maintain from each other meant that none of the cadets’ relatives could attend in order to conserve space in Falcon Stadium. 

My attitude towards Pence differs somewhat from my attitude towards Trump.  I do not care for his political stances and he is to some extent tainted by his association with the current administration, but the man himself certainly does not arouse the visceral reaction that Trump inspires.  He has played his role with some skill.  Trump has publicly quarreled with nearly every one of his Cabinet members and has purged numerous men and women from their positions.  Yet somehow Pence has managed to avoid the limelight amidst this perpetual Sturm und Drang for more than three years, continually contriving to keep at a distance from Trump’s embarrassing displays of ignorance and ill temper.  It is even possible that Trump has a friendly feeling towards him, to the extent that he is capable of liking anyone other than himself.  What arts has Pence employed to placate a man who lashes out at his associates with the unpredictability of a black mamba and who claws and spits at anyone who dares to criticize him like a catamount?  Mere sycophancy is not a sufficient explanation; plenty of people who have assiduously flattered Trump have nonetheless been toppled from their positions in a matter of months.  If I were seeking out a career as a lion-tamer in a circus, I would unhesitatingly go to Mike Pence to take lessons from him.

Nick Cordero, a Broadway star, has had his right leg amputated as a result of complications from the virus.  This is the first time I’ve heard of the virus having such an outcome.  He was originally diagnosed with pneumonia, a diagnosis that was corrected only belatedly.  By that time clots were forming in the leg.  Putting him on blood thinners to control the clots caused internal bleeding, so the physicians had to stop using the blood thinners and remove the leg.  This instance of the disease is particularly troubling because Cordero does not fit the usual profile of patients whose outcomes have turned out badly.  He is not elderly, being only 41 years old; he is not overweight, being quite lanky and lean in build, without an ounce of superfluous fat; and he was, until the virus struck him, a man in excellent physical condition. 

A study in the Bay Area of California suggests that the number of cases may be under-reported and may be as high as 85 times the amount currently supplied by statistics.  This news actually is somewhat encouraging; if the study‘s conclusions are correct, the mortality rate is much lower than the current statistics indicate.  And if less than 1 in 80 cases have discernible symptoms, the odds of succumbing to the virus after it is contracted are considerably reduced.  The study is far from conclusive and it does not explain, for instance, why the rate of contagion appears to be so much greater in some areas more than others.  To paraphrase Oscar Wilde’s Lady Bracknell slightly, “I do not know whether there is anything peculiarly exciting in the air of New York City, but the number of infections that go on seems to me considerably above the proper average that statistics have laid down for our guidance.”

Governor Abbott of Texas has appointed a team of medical and economic experts called the “Strike Force to Open Texas.”  Despite the name, the plan is actually rather cautious.  No businesses will open before April 27th, and the restrictions will be lifted in stages.  Of course there are many critics, but just about any plan to reopen the businesses of any state would draw the same reaction.  There is considerable pressure to try to revitalize the state’s economy, which already has been greatly affected by the reduction in oil prices. 

The effects of the virus threaten to damage the economy of the Jersey Shore.   Many of the people who own or are renting second homes for the summer do not know when the beaches and the local businesses will be open again.  I have friends living in the Jersey Shore and I have visited the area in all seasons, so I have seen for myself the precarious state of its economy.  During the winter half of the businesses are closed.  They begin to reopen in April but it is only after Memorial Day that the full complement of stores and restaurants are operating.  Then after Labor Day the businesses begin to shut down again, and by November the economy of the area begins to hibernate again.  The loss of an entire beach season, or even of a significant portion of one, will be a serious blow to this scheme of finance.  My own projected visit to my friends at the beginning of May has had to be canceled; it is uncertain when Governor Murphy will lift the stay-at-home order for the state, and in any case the one for Virginia remains in effect until June 10th.

Air quality has greatly improved as a result of the reduction of traffic on the roads.  It is possible that more and more businesses will encourage their employees to work from home whenever feasible, even after the restrictions are lifted.  I have seen an example for myself when I was working at Northrop Grumman.  For a long time tele-commuting, although theoretically available to employees on any given day, was in practice difficult for an employee to obtain from his or her supervisor.  But then came the winter of 2010/11, which had a record amount of snowfall (56 inches in the DC area).  The management thereupon realized that it was preferable for employees to work from home until the roads were adequately cleared – a process that always takes a long time in the DC metro area, its authorities laboring under the delusion that the city enjoys a Southern climate – and tele-commuting was positively encouraged.  After the snowfalls ceased and winter changed to spring, the management continued their policy of allowing employees to tele-commute on a less draconian basis.  I actually did not tele-commute much myself, since the nature of my work was such that it was easier to perform when I met with co-workers face to face, but whenever I felt the need to do so, permission to get it was much easier to obtain after that harsh winter than it was before. 

I did not wish to drive anywhere today, so I went on a ten-mile loop on local trails and sidewalks.  There were fewer people than I expected, especially since today is a Sunday.  People have become a good deal more observant about the injunctions concerning social distancing.  Groups of two or more would get into single file when approached from the opposite direction; dog owners reined in their pets and on occasion stepped aside altogether; bike riders were not riding in tandem.  All of which was a very agreeable surprise.

It continues to be one of the loveliest springs I can remember.  We have had a number of cool, wet days, which has prolonged the flowers’ period of bloom, and we are now moving into the time of year when the azaleas are coming out, blazing with color.  Washington does not have much in the way of heavy industry in proximity and air pollution has never been an issue to the extent of, say, Los Angeles or Cleveland.  Still, the air is notably clearer.  We will soon be approaching the period when the trillium are in full bloom, and then I do not believe that many people will pay much attention to the ATC’s pleas to stay off the Appalachian Trail:  the segment in the Linden area contains one of the greatest concentrations of trillium in the United States, and hikers are well-aware of the fact. 

The former mayor of Auburn, CA, who stepped down after criticizing Trump harshly (calling him a racist and comparing his followers to KKK members), has died in an airplane crash.  It was a private plane, of which he was the pilot.  It sounds like one of those cliché-ridden movies about a master scheme devised by a rich tycoon in which ordinary people are assassinated for getting in the way of its fruition – but surely that can’t be the case here.  So far, at least, no one has gone so far as to accuse Trump of murder.  I daresay that will come soon.

Trump is being accused by some of the governors for being reckless and unhinged for encouraging protestors to agitate against the various states’ stay-at-home laws.  Governor Inslee of the state of Washington has publicly told reporters that Trump is inciting insubordination and illegal activity.  It is difficult to disagree with him.  Instead of cooperating with the state governors and presenting a united front to combat the ravages of the virus, Trump is subverting the efforts of many governors to prohibit the habits that will cause the virus to spread even more.  If that doesn’t describe the man, he is indescribable. 

Pastor Tony Spell may not be very familiar with Yiddish, but he is the living embodiment of chutzpah.  Not content with defying the state’s stay-at-home order and organizing services with large numbers of people in attendance, he is asking that his followers donate their stimulus checks to the church.   Need I say that not a single one of his followers will raise a voice in protest at this unabashed display of greed?  It is difficult to feel sorry for them when they allow their pockets to be picked so readily.

There is talk now of banning customers from entering grocery stores and having them resort to curbside pickup and home delivery instead.  Indeed, I have been seeing many more delivery robots on the sidewalks than I have in the past, when I encountered them solely on the George Mason University campus.  It is understandable; several workers in grocery stores have contracted the virus, sometimes fatally.  But grocery stores operate on very narrow profit margins, and this additional expense will send many of them out of business altogether. 

Kenya has closed its borders.  Anyone in the country who has arrived from another country and has tested positive for the virus is placed in a quarantine center for 14 days.  The descriptions of the quarantine centers make them sound like prisons.  The toilets are filthy and the water from the taps is unreliable, because many of the inmates touch the taps with their hands.  If any occupant displays symptoms after the 14-day period of quarantine expires, he or she is forced to remain there for another 14 days.  As with the prisons of European nations in previous centuries, people have to pay for residing in them.  Most of the inmates are quite poor already, and this additional expense might easily propel some of them into ruin and destitution.

Today’s statistics as of 10:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 2,406,905; # of deaths worldwide: 165,059; # of cases U.S.: 763,836; # of deaths U.S.: 40,555. 

April 18, 2020

Morning statistics – Difficulties in ensuring accurate data collection – Nations with female leaders

Today’s statistics as of 7:30 AM — # of cases worldwide: 2,265,757; # of deaths worldwide: 154,900; # of cases U.S.: 710,272; # of deaths U.S.: 37,175.  There is some deceleration in the rate of new cases and of new deaths.  China’s number of active cases is now listed at 1,058, which means that the low figure reported yesterday was false, and that in turn raises doubts about its statistics as a whole.  The active mortality rate worldwide is close to 7%.  The U.S. mortality rate is about 5.2%, which is better than average but still quite high.  On a local level, Virginia’s incidence count is nearly 7,500 and has had 231 deaths. 

Those who maintain that the reports of the virus are “fake news” – and I personally know a couple of these – argue that the number of deaths is over-reported and that many are due to other causes, along the lines of Bill O’Reilly’s argument quoted earlier.  As it happens, in my career I had had to generate numerous statistical reports and I know something about the difficulties of ensuring the accuracy of data collection.  My relative who died last month is a case in point.  He was over 70 years old and he had an underlying heart condition.  He fell ill, was diagnosed with the virus, was put on a ventilator when his breathing difficulties made it impossible for him to breathe on his own, was eventually removed from the ventilator as this symptom moderated, and had a fatal heart attack shortly afterwards.  Should his death be attributed to the virus or be listed as a heart attack?  One can make an argument either way, and the decision ultimately resides with the doctor who signed the death certificate.  The argument cuts both ways, however; an epidemiologist might argue that many deaths officially attributed to heart failure or asthma should in fact be listed as deaths caused by the virus. 

Whether the numbers of cases and of deaths from the coronavirus are over-reported or under-reported, however, is of secondary importance to a hospital administrator or the director of a funeral home.  One statistic, at least, is beyond dispute – the increase in the number of people requiring treatment in urgent care, which is straining our hospitals to the breaking point, and the larger number of deceased people requiring burial or cremation, which is overwhelming the funeral homes.  New York City alone has had over 13,000 deaths above the median.  Whether they were a direct result of the virus or whether the virus was merely a proximate cause makes little difference to the workers interring or cremating the bodies. 

It has been noted that seven of the nations that have taken the virus seriously and adopted strenuous measures from the beginning – Finland, Norway, Denmark, Germany, Iceland, New Zealand, and Taiwan – have women leaders and this circumstance has been used to hint that women are better qualified as heads of state.  I don’t wish to disparage these leaders, whose policies during this pandemic have displayed a contrast to the ones deployed by our own leader that is rather humiliating for our country; but I should note that several other countries with male leaders – Vietnam and Malaysia come to mind – have also responded fairly effectively.  And if we look back a little in time, we find many women leaders who could be just as irresponsible and power-hungry as their male counterparts.  Empress Cixi, anyone?

April 17, 2020

Morning statistics – Possibility of under-reporting in Iran – Potential damage inflicted upon African nations – Absentee ballot – Soundness of electoral system on a local level – Florida beaches – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 2,205,976; # of deaths worldwide: 148,634; # of cases U.S.: 678,210; # of deaths U.S.: 34,641.  China’s number of active cases is now listed at 116, but that seems too good to be true.  One reason appears to be that China has revised its death count by over 1,000 and total number of cases by 325.  But it does appear strange that so few new cases have occurred.  It has reported 26 new cases and no deaths in the past 24 hours.  Spain’s case incidence rate is now very close to 0.4%.  At this point the nations with the highest incidence rates (excluding the microstates) are, in decreasing order, Spain, Switzerland, Belgium, Italy, Ireland, France, U.S., Portugal, the Netherlands, and Germany.  The ones with the highest mortality rates are Belgium, Spain, Italy, France, U.K., the Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden, U.S., and Ireland.  Belgium’s high mortality rate may be due to the fact that testing there has been less rigorous than in Germany or South Korea.  South Korea is generally regarded as having contained the virus within its borders.  Its statistics are a great deal more reliable than China’s.  Iran is not among the top ten on either list, so it just possibly may be doing a better job of containing the virus than the news reports would lead one to expect.  On the other hand, it may be fudging its data.  The latter alternative is the more likely explanation.  One video has emerged showing a morgue crammed with bodies, some of which have been waiting 5-6 days for burial – which is startling if true, because Sharia law requires corpses to be buried soon after expiration.  Also, there are some photographs of trenches being dug to accommodate the victims – a practice that is almost unheard of in that country.  The official death count is close to 5,000 but the actual count may be at least three times as much. 

There is some concern about the effect that the virus will have on African nations if it expands there the way it has in Europe.  About one-third of the people on the continent are living at the poverty level.  Preventative measures, such as shutting down businesses, that have resulted in mere economic hardship in Europe and the U.S. could lead to starvation for many of them. 

I applied for an absentee ballot and received the appropriate forms some days ago.  This morning I went over the websites for the various candidates so that I could make an informed choice.  Government on a local level, as opposed to the national one, appears to be working smoothly.  All of them looked good to me.  Instead of agonizing over which candidate was the lesser evil (which has been my experience in just about every national election that I can remember), I was actually pondering which of the men and women running for the position stood out among their competitors.  Not that there was a great deal of competition to ponder:  two candidates for mayor, seven candidates for the six positions of the City Council, and six candidates for the five positions of the School Board.  But it was heartening to get an impression of honest people striving to do their best for the city.  The positions that they are running for are not in the least lucrative and in consequence the candidates have all have had careers that are not exclusively political – unlike our mandarins in Congress.  However, I will defer submitting my ballot for a few days.  Governor Northam has requested that the election be delayed until November and if this request is approved, all submitted absentee ballots will have to be discarded.  The question will be resolved on April 22nd, so I will wait until then.

Florida has opened its beaches in Jacksonville and many have been flocking there.  Only exercise such as walking and swimming are permitted, while sunbathing, sitting in chairs, or resting on towels are not – theoretically.  I don’t see how that is going to be enforceable. 

Today’s statistics as of 11:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 2,250,757; # of deaths worldwide: 154,262; # of cases U.S.: 710,021; # of deaths U.S.: 37,158. 

April 16, 2020

Afternoon statistics – Status of Germany – Grocery shopping during the “window” for seniors – Yeast unavailable – A sourdough starter – Hiking on the Pimmit Run Trail – Personal disqualifications for Orthodox Judaism – The Baal Shem Tov contrasted with his followers – Justin Trudeau – Losses among health care workers – Work on the Metro – The works of Thomas Mann and prevalence of illness in his fiction – Unhealthiness of American lifestyles – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 12:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 2,118,741; # of deaths worldwide: 141,913; # of cases U.S.: 652,996; # of deaths U.S.: 33,387.  The incidence of occurrence in the U.S. is now 0.2% but in Spain it is almost twice as much. In Belgium the incidence rate is over 0.3% — and, surprisingly, in Switzerland as well. 

Germany is planning to reopen gradually.  Some small businesses will be allowed to operate after April 20th; schools will open on May 4th.  But large gatherings are prohibited until the end of August, including religious gatherings.  Angela Merkel voluntarily went into quarantine after coming in contact with a physician who tested positive for the virus, but she ultimately tested negative and returned to her office earlier this month.

Today I went to Safeway during the “window” of time allotted to seniors.  The window is 7:00 – 9:00 AM, Tuesdays and Thursdays.  It evidently is done by the honor system:  no one was checking customers’ ages as people entered the store.  However, it seems to be working; apart from the cashiers, there were no young people to be seen.  I was able to find most of the items on my list, which means that I can avoid the stores for the next three days or so.  One of the items I could not find was yeast, which has virtually vanished off of the shelves of the stores all over the area.  I am now trying to make a sourdough starter on my own.

I went out on the Potomac Heritage Trail near Turkey Run, but had to give it up eventually.  I should have known better; that part of the PHT is best attempted in summer or winter, when the river’s water levels are lower.  In the spring and autumn portions of the trail, especially in that area, tend to get submerged.  After a couple of miles I returned to my car and went to the Pimmit Run Trail, starting at the Marie Leven Preserve and doing a there-and-back to the junction with the PHT.  To my surprise I encountered only one other person on the trail.  It was a chilly day, to be sure, and the section of the Pimmit Run Trail that I covered can be quite a scramble in places – but still, I was surprised to see such a paucity of hikers when so many of the other trails are swarming with them.  Wildlife is becoming bolder.  I saw a fox walking along the bank of the river opposite to mine.  It did not appear overly concerned by my presence, whereas normally foxes run away whenever they spot a human.  This one merely walked by without quickening its pace. The parking area at the Marie Leven Preserve was closed, of course, but there are no restrictions on the residual streets nearby.  Driving back and forth to the trailheads has become very pleasant now that traffic has lightened so much. 

It may be noticed that I mention hiking a good deal in the course of these notes, and it is true that I like to be on the trails as often as possible.  I would not have had much success as an Orthodox Jew.  I take great offence in particular at the following pronouncement: “One who, while walking by the way of reviewing his studies, interrupts his study and says ‘How beautiful is that tree, how beautiful is that field,’ it is as if he is deserving of death” – the silliest statement in the entire Talmud, strong though the competition is.  However, I might have gotten along fairly well with the Baal Shem Tov.  He, at least, enjoyed being out of doors.  As a child he was continually roaming in the woods and the fields, despite the attempts of his elders to restrain him; he savored the magnificent scenery of the Carpathian Mountains during the seven years that he lived in that region (which he later referred to as the happiest period of his life); and one of his parables talks of a naïve boy who experiences religious fervor in a forest rather than in a synagogue.  I suppose all religious movements diverge from the precepts of their founders to some extent, but I believe that he in particular would be rather dismayed at the sight of his professed followers studying Talmudic commentaries to the exclusion of every single other activity and squandering their intellectual energy in debates about minor points of religious etiquette.  However, everyone must choose for himself in such matters.

Since I’ve been so critical of Donald Trump these past several days, it is only fair to note the idiosyncrasies of other national leaders – of the one for our neighbor to the North, for example.  Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, after ordering Canadians to avoid visiting vacation cottages and family reunions as part of the nation’s stay-at-home order (with people being stopped by the police and fined for crossing provincial borders), blithely took a jaunt with his family to Harrington Lake for the Easter weekend.  He seems willing to evade laws that he has laid down for everyone else.  Perhaps he and Donald Trump should meet to exchange pointers with each other on how best to achieve this goal.

We’ve had losses of health care professionals whom we can ill afford to spare.  Ronald Verrier, initially from Haiti, was a surgeon in the Bronx who worked day after day with an overwhelming number of patients as the virus ravaged New York City.  He developed symptoms in early April and had to take to his bed, but he continued to call in to meetings with his colleagues from his home during the last week of his life until April 7th, the day before he died.  Vianna Thompson was a nurse in Reno, NV, who treated a colleague who had contracted the virus, came down with it herself, and died four days later.  Daisy Doronilla, a nurse for the Hudson County jail in New Jersey, developed a cough in mid-March, was hospitalized on March 21st, put on a ventilator on March 22nd, and died on April 5th.  Jeff Baumbach, a nurse at a hospital in Stockton, CA, had worked for 28 years with patients suffering from infectious diseases without catching as much as a cold, but in March he developed symptoms, was put on a ventilator on March 26th, and died on March 31st.  Technically speaking his death was listed as pneumonia, but the virus undoubtedly precipitated matters, since his health up to time of his final illness had been impeccable.  Alvin Simmons, a cleaner for a hospital in Rochester, NY, displayed symptoms on March 11th, was hospitalized on March 13th, and died on March 17th.  This death is especially worrisome, because it was the first recorded case at the hospital; up to this point, there had been no reason to suspect that any part of the facility was harboring the virus.  Debbie Accad, a nursing coordinator at a hospital in Detroit, complained of feeling ill on March 16th, was hospitalized on March 20th, and died on March 30th.  In all of these cases the speed with which the illness progressed is the most alarming factor.  Verrier, for instance, was reported as being confident and “in good spirits” on April 7th, but died on the following day. 

Because the ridership of the Metro had decreased so substantially, construction on the Silver Line can be moved ahead of schedule.  It is much easier to shut down lines temporarily.  Initially a complete shutdown was proposed for 15-16 weeks, but it appears that this may be reduced to as little as three weeks.

It is a little curious going over some of the works of Thomas Mann under these circumstances.  Illness is continually recurring.  The Magic Mountain, of course, takes place in a sanatorium, and the protagonist of Death in Venice dies in the middle of cholera epidemic, so it is not surprising that none of the characters in these two works are prime specimens.  But still – it is a bit strange.  In The Magic Mountain, it’s assumed as a matter of course that all visitors, even if they are not in the least tubercular, will need an adjustment period to acclimatize to the altitude of Davos – which is less than that of Denver.  Hans Castorp is orphaned at the age of seven and James Tienappel, one of his few living relatives, is not particularly robust.  In Buddenbrooks hardly anyone is healthy.  Johann gets rheumatic in his early forties.  Thomas has a hemorrhage in his twenties and dies of a stroke at the age of forty-eight.  Klara dies of tuberculosis before she is thirty.  Christian dwells on his cramps and fevers and internal pains at wearisome length, but they are genuine ailments, not the fancies of a hypochondriac (although he certainly is one).  Antonie has digestive issues.  Her second child dies at birth.  Johann the younger succumbs to typhoid when he is in his teens.  Johannes Friedemann (“Little Herr Friedemann”) is another early orphan, his father dying in Johannes’ infancy and his mother following before he turns twenty-one.  Tonio Kröger also loses his father at an early age although his mother, most unaccountably, appears to be still living when he reaches adulthood.  Frau Cornelius (“Disorder and Early Sorrow”) is worn down and chronically fatigued, and she ought to be staying at a spa for a “cure,” except that the family’s precarious financial situation as a result of the runaway inflation makes this course of action impossible – this detail has no bearing on the plot and is merely thrown in casually.  Adrian Leverkühn, in Doctor Faustus, certainly self-destructs by contracting syphilis as a result of his dissipations; but his librettist Rüdiger Schildknapp, despite his imposing physical presence, is actually rather frail, with a tendency to be tubercular, and Adrian’s nephew Nepomuk dies in childhood from meningitis.  There simply is no getting away from disease in his writings.  Since Mann is considered to be one of the great German realistic writers, it leads me to wonder . . .

. . .  can it be?  .  . .

. . . is it possible? . . .

. . . that the Germans of that time, far from being a Herrenvolk, were actually a rather sickly and suffering people?

Today, of course, the boot is on the other foot.  The lifestyle of the average American is much less healthy than that of the average German.  We eat too much and our habits are too sedentary.  The number of obese people among our population, and of morbidly obese in particular, is a matter of wonder to foreign visitors, and our life expectancy is less than that of several European nations, partly on account of the high incidence of heart disease.  When I visited Garmisch-Partenkirchen some years ago, I encountered several people in their seventies and beyond who took to the Alpine trails as a matter of course.  No doubt they were moving more slowly than at the rate they had possessed in their youth, but it never would have occurred to them to remain inactive.  Americans in general disdain to walk, and they pay for this preference in their old age, with bent spines, inflexible knees, and fragile hips.  I see plenty of examples at the assisted-living facility where my mother lives, in some cases among people whose age is not much greater than my own.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 2,182,058; # of deaths worldwide: 145,516; # of cases U.S.: 677,570; # of deaths U.S.: 34,617.  Our case incidence rate now exceeds 0.2%. 

April 15, 2020

Morning statistics – Trump vs. the WHO – Africans in China – Another visit to my mother’s facility – More trail closures – Protestors at Lansing, MI – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 2,014,554; # of deaths worldwide: 127,598; # of cases U.S.: 614,246; # of deaths U.S.: 26,064.  Outside of various microstates whose populations are so small that even a low number of cases can skew statistics (Iceland, Luxembourg, Andorra) the country with the greatest amount of cases with respect to the population is Spain.  At this point nearly 0.4% have come down with the disease.  For the U.S. the incidence rate is 0.186%, but it is rising steadily. 

Trump has cut off American funding to the World Health Organization (WHO), stating that it placed political correctness over lifesaving measures.   There is some truth to this.  Initially China downplayed the outbreak of the virus in Wuhan, saying that everything was under control and that there was no evidence that it could be communicated from person to person.  It even detained Dr. Li Wenliang, who warned his colleagues about the outbreak in December, 2019, and “admonished” him, a process that could have had far-ranging adverse effects both for him and his family, had he not evaded their clutches by contracting the virus from a patient and dying in February.  The WHO simply repeated China’s false reassurances without question, even though senior WHO officials suspected at the onset that the virus was more serious than initial reports would have led laymen to believe.  WHO also protested against Trump’s initial move to impose travel restrictions of Americans to China – one of the few preventative measures he deigned to implement.  One WHO official even publicly cut off an interview with a reporter when she implied that Taiwan was independent of China.  There is no question that the WHO fell down badly in this matter, and that it is much too subservient to China and to Third World nations in general.

Still – what else have we got?  Imperfect as the WHO may be, there is no alternative organization.  Cutting off funds in the midst of a global pandemic will simply make a bad situation even worse.

Speaking of China, a MacDonald’s in that nation recently achieved an unwelcome spotlight.  In Guangzhou, a large industrial city, its MacDonald’s instituted a policy of banning blacks from entering.  One wouldn’t have thought that there were a sufficient number of blacks to bother enforcing such a policy, no matter how racially biased the Chinese may be; but in fact there are over 300,000 Africans residing in the city.  There have been many tensions between these newcomers and the locals, and naturally the threat of the virus has exacerbated them.

I went to see my mother again today, but only for a few minutes, mainly to pick up mail that’s accumulated since my last visit.  I did not stay long; there is general agreement that under the circumstances brief visits are the best.  If the virus gets loose in an assisted living facility such of the one my mother occupies, it would do as much damage as a spark of fire cast upon a field of parched wheat.

There were more trail closures today.  Regional parks such as Burke Lake and Occoquan Regional had their entrances closed; there is a small parking lot on Rte. 123 from which it is possible to enter the park on foot, but that was closed off too.  I settled for going to Occoquan itself; it’s a pretty little town and I haven’t seen it for a while.  There were excellent views from the footbridge over the Occoquan River.  Gulls and loons were flying and swimming in great numbers.  But at this point it seems doubtful that anyone will pay much attention to the Appalachian Trail Conservancy’s pleas to stay off of the AT; the alternatives are drying up.

Along these lines, the Vigorous Hikers will no longer be sending out Email announcements to group members about the hikes; we will have to look them up on the website and then contact the hike leader if we want to join. 

Protestors stormed Lansing today calling for easing up on the stay-at-home order in Michigan.  Many people in Michigan go south for the winter and this year they have had some difficulty in attempting to return to their homes during the spring.  And of course small businesses have been feeling the pinch for weeks.  The governor is trying to cope with the situation as diplomatically as possible; she realizes that it’s impossible to arrest all of the protestors – there simply are too many of them (at least 3,000 in Lansing alone).  In her place I would be pointing out that the more relaxed attitude of Sweden hasn’t done much good; its mortality rate is significantly worse than that of the remainder of the Scandinavian countries.

Today’s statistics as of 10:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 2,083,304; # of deaths worldwide: 134,615; # of cases U.S.: 644,089; # of deaths U.S.: 28,529.  New cases are still occurring in China, but the number of active cases is now barely over 1,100.  Spain, Italy, France, and Belgium have the highest mortality rates, with the U.K. and the Netherlands trailing not far behind. 

April 14, 2020

Morning statistics – Hiking among the wildflowers – Decreasing number of trails available – Grocery shopping – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 6:30 AM — # of cases worldwide: 1,929,922; # of deaths worldwide: 120,449; # of cases U.S.: 582,594; # of deaths U.S.: 23,649.  The number of active cases in China has gone down to 1,170.  Italy has had over 161,000 cases, more than 2.5 in every 1000 of its population.  And in Spain the count is nearly 3.7 in every 1000 of its population.  The virus is expanding in the Mideast; both Iran and Turkey have case counts approaching those of China.  In Sweden the number of cases has exceeded that of South Korea, although the virus has been infecting South Korea over a considerably longer period of time.  Its death toll is higher than those of its neighbors, which have comparable population sizes.  Many scientists in Sweden are denouncing the country’s rather relaxed policy towards gatherings of several people.  Similarly, both Chile and Peru have case counts that have exceeded Japan’s. 

I was on the AT again with the Vigorous Hikers, a there-and-back from Rte. 55 to Rte. 522.  The total was 16 miles, with 2800 feet of elevation gain.  We all started at different times and went at different paces, so our social contact was minimal.  Also, we were on a relatively little-used portion of the trail, or so we thought.  For most of the time we encountered nobody except an elderly couple coming from Rte. 522.  On the way back, though, I ran across a dozen people (not all in one group, but in several smaller ones) coming from Rte. 55 – but only within the last two miles.  The remainder of the trail had been deserted.  We started very early, which may have something to do with it.  The day was almost ideal:  temperatures mainly in the 50s and fairly sunny, with little wind.  I thought that the trail would be muddy on account of the rain from the day before, but there were only a few wet patches.  Many wildflowers were in full bloom:  bloodroot, blue violets, yellow violets, spring beauties, starry chickweed, wild geranium. Butterflies have become less frequent in recent years, so I was heartened to see a few tiger swallowtails on this outing.  Birds were caroling everywhere.  I completed the hike in a little under 4 hours and 40 minutes, or close to 3.5 MPH – not too bad for someone in his mid-sixties.

It’s getting to be a challenge to find trails that are open.  All of Shenandoah National Park is closed.  Even the Dickey Ridge Trail, whose trailhead is outside of the park gates, is off-limits.  All of the park visitor centers are of course closed, although some parks, such as Rock Creek, are still available for use. 

Because we started so early and the hike was a relatively short distance away from my home (about a 45-minute drive), I had time to do some grocery shopping after I returned.  I brought my mask, and also I was handed a pair of plastic gloves before I entered the store.  It makes sense – with all of the fresh produce, quite a number of people handle it for inspection before choosing the fruit or vegetable that they want to purchase.  When I select an apple, for instance, I automatically hold it up and inspect it all over to verify whether or not it has any bruises or soft spots, and I assume that other shoppers do the same. 

Today’s statistics as of 11:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 1,981,239; # of deaths worldwide: 126,557; # of cases U.S.: 608,679; # of deaths U.S.: 25,992.  Today was a setback; the number of new deaths is higher than that of yesterday.

April 13, 2020

Morning statistics – Potential meat shortages – Trump puzzled at failure of anti-biotics to counter-effect a virus – Gerald Glenn – Trump vs. Fauci – A dangerous precedent – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 1,859,011; # of deaths worldwide: 114,979; # of cases U.S.: 557,590; # of deaths U.S.: 22,023.

One of the largest pork processing plants in the country has been shut down because more than two hundred of its employees have fallen ill.  This episode will have a significant impact on our meat supply.  Even though I don’t eat much pork myself, it will affect me and others like me; if the supply of pork goes down, people will be turning to other meats and the surge in demand will cause shortages of these as well.  Fortunately I have several vegetarian dishes in my repertoire.

Trump’s displays of ineptitude continue to amaze me and, in all probability, the world at large.  Recently he made a speech describing COVID-19 as a “brilliant enemy” – as if it were a hostile nation with whom we are at war – and lamented that it is impervious to anti-biotics.  Of course, since it is a virus, anti-biotics will not be of much use in treating it, but he doesn’t appear to be aware of that.  And people made fun of Gerald Ford and George W. Bush for their malapropisms!  They are geniuses in comparison with this man.

Bishop Gerald Glenn conducted church services in defiance of the restriction of gatherings of more than ten people, saying that “people are healed” at his church and that he provided an essential service because “I am a preacher – I talk to God!”  He held his last service on March 22nd, contracted the virus shortly afterwards, and died a week after it was diagnosed.  Had he torn himself away from his Biblical studies to have a glimpse at the classics, he would have realized that hubris is inevitably followed by nemesis.

The blunders of Trump are reaping what they have sown.  A member of the crew of the USS Theodore Roosevelt ship has died of the virus.  Trump has publicly quarreled with Dr. Fauci and is now trying to back-pedal and to pretend that he has no wish to deprive Fauci of his post.  I suppose that even he realizes the amount of outrage that would result if he engineered firing Fauci (he cannot do so directly, but he could request the Health and Human Services director to do so – just as he technically is not directly responsible for the firing of Captain Brett Crozier but made use of Thomas Modly as his catspaw). 

I’ve had speculations about life in future even after the virus recedes.  These stay-at-home orders are necessary, and yet – it is a little frightening to realize the degree our government can meddle with our daily lives.  Is it possible that an enterprising demagogue will take advantage of a future crisis of similar magnitude to control our movements and nudge the direction of our country into a police state?  Something similar, it may be remembered, happened in Germany less than a century ago.

Today’s statistics as of 10:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 1,918,855; # of deaths worldwide: 119,588; # of cases U.S.: 581,679; # of deaths U.S.: 23,604.  It does appear that the number of new cases and of deaths is decelerating, but we are a long way from reaching negative deceleration as yet.

April 12, 2020

Morning statistics – State of emergency for fifty states – Easter’s ambiguous reputation – Why social distancing guidelines are in effect – Lou Dobbs – Decreased pollution – Death of an ER doctor – A lively party in California – Fauci and Birx working under difficulties – Donald Trump’s personal insecurities – How these make him a failed leader – Contrast between Trump and Queen Elizabeth II – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 1,789,985; # of deaths worldwide: 109,691; # of cases U.S.: 530,006; # of deaths U.S.: 20,608.  Many new cases, but on the bright side the increase in the number of deaths since last night is lower than before.

There is now a state of emergency declared for all fifty states at once.  It is the first time in history that this has happened. 

Today is Easter Sunday.  I’m in two minds about this holiday.  Theoretically the liturgies recited at the services should be admonishing the congregations not to allow themselves to have their passions whipped up by unscrupulous demagogues to the point of their participating in lynching and judicial murder.  But in practice it has not worked out that way.  On the contrary, the services have often been used to kindle the most vicious of hatreds and to foment the same kind of mob violence that played such a prominent role in the execution of Christ.  And it is still going on today, albeit to a lesser degree than in earlier epochs and repudiated by a handful of churches here and there.  So it is not surprising that Jews in general tend to regard this holiday with a degree of suspicion.  In fact,

We withstood Christ then? be mindful how 
At least we withstand Barabbas now!        

(Robert Browning, “Holy Cross Day”)

On the other hand, Easter is the source of many parades and gatherings and feasts and numerous other events in which people are made easily and carelessly merry and that are a source of delight to children in particular.  People don their new spring outfits and families get together; in this country the gambolings of the Easter bunny are eagerly looked forward to by thousands of children, and there is generally a lot of festivity and food and laughter.   Sadly, all of these must be foregone for now.  Believers among Christians have been harder hit than believers among Jews this year.  While there are certainly some special services at the synagogue for Passover, the focal point of the holiday is the seder, which is celebrated at home.  To be sure, the big family gatherings that are the usual feature at this time of year had to be given up, but at any rate individual households could celebrate the ceremony.  Easter, however, is emphatically a more communal affair. 

LF, daughter of a hiker friend and with whom I have hiked myself on occasion, is a prominent surgeon.  She has posted a Facebook entry urging that the social distancing regulations in effect are not merely for self-protection but for the protection of others.  I have not entirely lost sight of that.  It is a hardship to avoid people, especially the people I know well, but I have no wish to endanger them by any carelessness on my part.  I am not unduly worried about contracting the virus myself, although naturally I would prefer for it to pass me by.  I am quite healthy and have none of the underlying conditions that can make the disease so deadly.  Even so, no one seems to know with certainty what the after-effects will be.  Still, the main issue in my case is not to infect others; it is, as I know, perfectly possible to have the disease without being aware of it for two weeks or more.  Many have infected others while they were still asymptomatic.  This isolation has been difficult in many ways, but it must be endured if the epidemic is to be contained at all.

Lou Dobbs, a Fox News presenter who has steadily maintained that the virus is a hoax overblown by the media, has tested positive for the virus and has been in self-quarantine for three weeks.

The inhabitants of heavily polluted cities such as Beijing, Sao Paolo, Mumbai, etc., are seeing clean air for the first time in decades.  I remember visiting Beijing in 2000, where for the first time in my life I saw a brown sky.  Commentators are reporting that the air is now quite clear and the sky has returned to its natural color.  The implication is that a trifling pandemic or so does wonders for a city’s appearance.  I can foresee the time when dedicated environmentalists will be sighing for the good old days when the virus was at its height.

New York City has over 6,000 deaths, and it is unclear why its mortality rate is so much higher than that of the rest of the country.  Population density has something to do with it, but the virus has ravaged Queens more thoroughly than Manhattan, even though Manhattan is the more densely populated borough of the two.  New York City has provided us with the first casualty among American ER doctors:  Frank Gabrin, who on account of the general shortage in masks was forced to use the same mask for several shifts until it provided virtually no protection.  This episode, as we know from a message texted to a friend expressing concern about the lack of medical supplies, occurred on March 19th.  He displayed symptoms of the disease on March 26th, was confined to his bed on March 29th, and died on March 30th.  His last moments were especially traumatic; he woke up in the morning gasping for air; his anxious spouse immediately called 911 and a close friend for help; by the time they arrived he had already passed away in his spouse’s arms.  Arnold Vargas, the spouse, also contracted the disease but eventually recovered.  They had been married for only seven months.

A very large party of about 400 people was held in California in violation of the stay-at-home order, and sure enough it came to grief, although not in the way that one might have expected.  The party was as “lively” as the one provided by Judge Brack in Ibsen’s Hedda Gabler and it ended in the same way – with gunfire.  Six people were shot, none of them with life-threatening injuries.  No arrests have been made as yet, but no one is cooperating with the authorities, not even the victims. 

Dr. Fauci says that the virus appears to be slowing down and that the country could open again to some extent next month.  Fauci also confirmed that Trump initially pushed back when recommendations came earlier in the year to shut down all but the essential businesses.  So this report about a potential return to normalcy in May could very well be a sop flung to Trump to keep him quiet.

I feel sorry for Dr. Fauci and also for Deborah Birx, Coronavirus Response Coordinator for the Trump Administration’s White House Coronavirus Task Force.  They are obviously doing all that they can to help the nation through this crisis, but the need to stoke Trump’s ego continually must be a great distraction.

I have said much about the President, but I should clarify my position a little.  I am not trying to demonize him.  He is not a monster in the style of Hitler or Stalin or Mao Zedong.  He would not consign hundreds of thousands of people to the gulag or round them up to be assassinated in concentration camps.  He does have some redeeming qualities.  While it is true that he treated his first two wives abominably, he appears to have a genuine attachment to Melania.  He has donated his salary as President to the treasury.  Supporters of Trump – and there are still many of these – say that people in the country should rally behind him in order to fight the inroads of the pandemic effectively; and they are right to an extent.  If Trump were to show any degree of true leadership, most people would be glad to march under his banner.

But that is what he consistently refuses to do.  At every turn, his insatiable craving for praise and approval obtrudes, perpetually hampering the efforts of everyone who is trying to do something useful.  One has only to compare his behavior to that of Queen Elizabeth II.  Queen Elizabeth, at the age of 93, provided an impressive speech to bolster the spirits of the nation.  In the course of that speech she referred to the first speech she made in 1940, not for the purposes of self-aggrandizement, but to remind the Britons of a time when a crisis of similar import threatened the well-being of the country and of the sturdy fortitude they displayed in responding to it.  The emphasis was on her countrymen at large, not on herself.  And I have no doubt that a majority of Britons will be inspirited by this example and that her efforts will play a role in inspiring others to imitate the courage shown by their parents or grandparents eighty years earlier.

Who can doubt that if Trump were to give such an address that the emphasis would be on what he alone has done and that no mention would be made of the labors of anyone else? or that he shuts his ears to anything that he does not wish to hear and penalizes anyone whose views do not echo his own?  If I had the misfortune to be working in a capacity that involved coming into physical contact with him, I would strive to attract as little notice as possible, as in Griboyedov’s Woe from Wit:  “God spare us from the worst of woes, the master’s wrath, the master’s love.”  I have no doubt that such an attitude has infiltrated many Government departments as a result of his influence; it is clear that they are wilting after more than three years of capricious and arbitrary rule.

Today’s statistics as of 10:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 1,846,963; # of deaths worldwide: 114,101; # of cases U.S.: 555,398; # of deaths U.S.: 22,023.

April 11, 2020

Morning statistics – Anak Krakatau, child of Krakatoa – Fortuitous discovery of a dust mask – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 1,709,014; # of deaths worldwide: 103,536; # of cases U.S.: 501,613; # of deaths U.S.: 18,277.  Nearly 100,000 new cases in 24 hours, and about 35,000 of these in the U.S.

Krakatoa has been erupting.  Not, thankfully, on the scale with which it erupted in 1883, causing the “year without a summer,” but erupting nonetheless.  Actually, the original volcano was literally blown away in the 1883 eruption and the name of the peak that is now active is “Anak Krakatau,” and was formed from lava from subsequent eruptions – “anak” means “child” in Indonesian, the lingua franca of the archipelago.  The fumes and ash have gone 1,640 feet into the air, but unlike a similar eruption two years ago, it does not appear forceful enough to create a deadly tsunami.  (The one in 2018 killed over 400 people.) 

Today I found a dust mask used and left behind by some workers who had done some repairs in the laundry room several years ago.  I washed it and then wore it when I went out, and I am bound to say it works better than my home-made mask.  It’s much less cumbersome and covers my nostrils and mouth more effectively.  I will use this mask primarily, and use the home-made masks as backups.

Today’s statistics as of 11:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 1,777,517; # of deaths worldwide: 108,862; # of cases U.S.: 529,887; # of deaths U.S.: 20,604.  Our death toll has now surpassed that of Italy, which up to this point has been the nation with the greatest number of deaths.  Its death toll is 19,468.  However, its mortality rate is still considerably higher.  The number of deaths from the virus in this country is now about 35% of the annual number of deaths from influenza.   But of course the mortality rate is much greater, so as the number of cases continues to expand the number of deaths will also.  I mention this because until recently it was still possible to see articles downgrading the severity of the epidemic by pointing out how many people we lose to other diseases every year and to influenza in particular.  The ostrich instinct is very strong among certain political partisans, but I believe matters have come at this point to be so obvious that even the most obstinate can no longer ignore the severity of the disease.

April 10, 2020

Morning statistics – High mortality rate of the U.K. – Deterioration of standard of public debate – Groups of people at higher risk – Potter’s Field – Boris Johnson – Ralph Northam – More developments on the case of the USS Roosevelt – Good Friday – Trump cries “Encore” for the crucifixion – A drug for reducing the impact of a disabling childhood disease approved by the FDA – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:30 AM — # of cases worldwide: 1,611,981; # of deaths worldwide: 96,783; # of cases U.S.: 466,299; # of deaths U.S.: 16,686.  More than 16,000 new cases and more than 1,000 deaths in the space of less than 12 hours.  There are bright spots here and there.  The rate of the death toll in Spain is going down.  In New York the increase of newly hospitalized patients in New York is now 1%, considerably lower than before.  Nearly a quarter of the people who contracted the virus have since recovered.

Why is the mortality rate in the United Kingdom so high?  It is over 12% — worse than that of Spain and comparable with that of Italy. I can’t believe that its medical system is worse than either of those two countries, or that our own is so much better than theirs.  (Our own rate is currently about 3.5%.) It may be that their testing is more extensive and that they have diagnosed the number of people afflicted by the disease more effectively.  We know that many people are going about who have the disease but who have not been diagnosed.  That’s one reason the virus is spreading so quickly.  The total actual number of cases in any country is simply not known.  Also, many of the people who have contracted the virus are not yet recovered or dead, so that the mortality rate may go up for any single country within any projected time.  I’m certain that it will go up in the U.S.  Still, all of these factors do not quite explain why the figures in the U.K. are not closer to those of Switzerland or Germany.

Bill O’Reilly has said that those who died of the virus “were on their last legs anyway,” adding that “I don’t want to sound callous about that.” 

This is a good example of how much the quality of public debate has deteriorated in our nation.  Party politics were every bit as partisan and emotionally charged when I was growing up as they are now, but the tone of public discourse was notably more civil and – to use an old-fashioned word – even gentlemanly, at least at times.  During the course of the Vietnam War people from both parties became much more prone to unbridled abuse of one another and any code of manners that existed became completely unraveled.  At this point casual brutalities such as O’Reilly’s comments have become commonplace.  As to the gist of his argument – it certainly is true that many of the deaths occurred among people who had other issues, such as obesity, diabetes, etc., but it is also true that many others were quite healthy before fatally contracting the virus.  In every epidemic those who are less healthy to begin with are at greater risk than those who are more robust, but that does not make the epidemic any the less injurious. 

Potter’s Field on Hart Island, traditionally used for burials of people who have no known next of kin or whose relatives are unable to arrange a funeral, is now receiving so many bodies that a special labor force has been hired to bury them.  There is a distinct possibility that its buildings will be used for storage of other bodies as New York City’s morgues reach full capacity.  Work has begun on large trenches in which to bury the bodies en masse.

Boris Johnson is out of intensive care and appears to be recovering, but he will require several days of rest before resuming his political responsibilities. 

Governor Northam, the only governor in the country who has had experience as a professional doctor, has banned neckties for physicians and orderlies working in hospitals, on the grounds that these can be vectors for the disease.  In general, his demeanor has inspired much more confidence than Trump’s, to say the least.  He can speak with greater authority, having personally treated soldiers in a hospital in Germany during the first Gulf War, and (as might be expected from a professional physician) he has a good bedside manner when speaking about the pandemic, calm and dispassionate, greatly contrasting with Trump’s displays of temper and petulant remarks whenever the tiniest breath of criticism reaches his ears.  Basically he is setting his own guidelines for the state and ignoring Trump’s proposed national ones.  Thus the stay-at-home order for Virginia remains in effect for June 10th, long after Trump’s projected return to normal activity at the end of April. 

Yet another development for the USS Theodore Roosevelt fiasco:  one of the sailors diagnosed with the virus is now in intensive care.  Despite this not unexpected result, there seems to be little chance of Brett Crozier getting restitution for being unjustly penalized for seeking medical attention for his men as expeditiously as possible.  He seems to have been forgotten within the course of a few days, even by the Democrats who lauded him chiefly in order to display their hostility to Trump.

Today is Good Friday.  Most Christians are sadly resigned to the fact that their church services will have to be virtual.  Indeed, it is impossible not to be sorry for those who truly believe and who naturally wish to be together on such an important ritual as this one.  Under the circumstances, “let this cup pass from me” is peculiarly appropriate for this year.

Trump, incidentally, has issued a tweet wishing everyone “HAPPY GOOD FRIDAY” – which is akin to wishing Jews a merry Yom Kippur.  He does not seem to be aware that Good Friday commemorates the crucifixion and that, far from being happy, is the most somber day of the year for believing Christians.  Even an outsider like me knows that much.  One would have expected some adverse comments or at least an expression of surprise about this display of ignorance from his fundamentalist Christian supporters but they all appear to be stricken with silence on the matter.

Some good news amidst all of this ferment:  selumetinib, a drug proved to be effective for plexiform neurofibromatosis Type 1 (pediatric elephant’s disease) has been approved by the FDA.  My good friend Austin Doyle* played a prominent, indeed a central role in its development, and his efforts were critical in persuading the company that manufactures it not to abandon the necessary research.  He retired last year, but he was recognized by the National Cancer Institute for his untiring efforts on the project, which lasted from 2008 to the day of his retirement.

Today’s statistics as of 8:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 1,691,719; # of deaths worldwide: 102,525; # of cases U.S.: 496,535; # of deaths U.S.: 18,586. 

*I have deviated here from my convention of referring to personal acquaintances by initials only because his name came up in a public context.

April 9, 2020

Morning statistics – The state of New York – Shopping at Wegmans – Latin-American drug cartels – More illness in the family – The virus affecting how people tend ill or dying relatives – The blithe unconcern of Tony Spell – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 1,496,055; # of deaths worldwide: 89,435; # of cases U.S.: 432,438; # of deaths U.S.: 14,808.  Presumably duplicate records were identified.  There must have been some over-reporting last night, because the numbers of cases worldwide and of U.S. deaths are lower than they were thirteen hours ago, which doesn’t make sense otherwise.  In Spain the mortality rate now is almost exactly 10%.  In Italy and France it is even higher, perhaps one death for every eight cases.  Even in the U.K. the mortality rate is over 11%.  Belgium and the Netherlands have similarly high mortality rates.  The rates for Portugal and Austria, curiously, are much lower.  Austria is perhaps understandable; its neighbors are Germany and Switzerland, where the mortality rate are also low, and Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, and Slovenia, which so far have had relatively low numbers of cases.  But it also borders Northern Italy, which has had high numbers both of cases and deaths.  Portugal is even more puzzling; its sole neighbor is Spain, where the mortality rate is high, but its mortality rate is less than 3%. 

New York State now has more cases than Spain or Italy, although its population is much lower than that of either country.

I went to Wegmans today, and that experience seems likely to be a portent of what is to come in future weeks.  It was crowded; I arrived just as the doors were opening and there was a line of people waiting to get in.  I entered without difficulty or delay, but when I finished and emerged back out I saw several people waiting outside; like many other stores, Wegmans is limiting the number of customers who can be in the store at once.  Several shelves were empty.  The selection of fruits and vegetables in particular was limited.  But the store had bread, which was a good thing; flour and yeast are now scarce items.  And they had wipes – only one container per customer, which is quite reasonable, considering how much they are demand; but one container holds 75 wipes, which should be sufficient for some time.  I wore my mask, and it worked well. I felt more comfortable with it on.  People behaved very well on the whole, but there were times when it was impossible to be more than six feet from at least one of them. Shopping for groceries will become more difficult over the next few weeks.  One is reminded of the line in Brecht’s Galileo about the need for cautious doubt rather than blind faith:  “By credulity the Roman housewife’s daily battle for milk is lost.”

The Latin American drug cartels, I am delighted to hear, have been affected by the pandemic.  Their supply chain of ingredients has been disrupted, especially as many of them come from China.  Also, the lower amount of traffic on the streets makes smugglers more conspicuous and easier to track down.  Ditto for air traffic; the number of airplanes in the skies has been dramatically reduced, so that drug planes are easier for the authorities to spot.  All of this comes at a time when demand is higher than ever in the U.S., due to anxiety over the virus and the stay-at-home orders. 

I checked in with my aunt today and she gave me an interesting piece of news:  her son (my cousin), his wife, and his son all contracted the virus and were laid up for a couple of days.  They have since recovered.  I called my cousin afterwards.  He told me that he wanted to keep quiet about the matter until it was over, not wanting to be distracted by useless exclamations from relatives – quite sensibly.  I would have done the same thing in his place.  They are all on the mend now, but he tells me that it pulls you down tremendously when it hits you and it takes a considerable time to get back to normal.

CC, a member of the Vigorous Hiking group, has not been able to join us for some time because she is looking after her husband, who has had cancer that has now spread to both lungs.  The restrictions imposed by the virus make matters all the more difficult for her, both physically and emotionally.  It seems likely that her husband’s passing will come very soon.  She is not even allowed to enter the hospital where he is being treated; and painful as this restriction is, it is a necessary one:  hospitals are excellent places in which to contract illnesses. 

It appears that even the Hasids restrained themselves and did not congregate in large numbers for the first night of Passover.  By way of contrast, Tony Spell refuses to abide by Louisiana’s ban on large gatherings and holds in-person church services, saying that “True Christians do not mind dying.”  He faces six misdemeanor charges, each of which has a maximum penalty of six months of jail and a $500 fine.  That means that if he is convicted of every single charge he will be out of pocket by a grand total of – $3000?  Of course, in such a case he will be liable to some time in prison.  We shall see if Governor Bel Edwards has the strength of purpose to punish him as he deserves, but I doubt very much that Spell will end up doing any time in jail. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 1,595,350; # of deaths worldwide: 95,455; # of cases U.S.: 461,437; # of deaths U.S.: 16,478.  Sweden may have to rethink its laissez-faire attitude towards the virus; it is soaring well ahead of its neighbors in Scandinavia.  Our own mortality rate is relatively low (about 3.5%, which is better than the majority of European nations) and the number of deaths with respect to the population at large is also still relatively low (about 1 in 20,000).  But these numbers are expected to go up dramatically within the next seven to ten days.

April 8, 2020

Morning statistics – Comic interlude – Streetfight in Detroit – A much-needed haircut – Cash going out of style – Illness looked upon as crime, à la Erewhon – Mask working at last – Eye trouble – Bernie Sanders – A conservative driven to the Democratic Party – Failures of liberalism – Worse failures of Republican Party – Passover – Charlotte Figi – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 6:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 1,441,128; # of deaths worldwide: 82,992; # of cases U.S.: 399,929; # of deaths U.S.: 12,991.  The U.S. now accounts for nearly 28% of the cases in the world and over 15% of the deaths.  These figures will undoubtedly increase.  The virus is levelling off to some extent in the European countries, but not here.  It is said, however, that the curve in New York is flattening at last.  It certainly is high time; New York City accounts for 4,000 of the deaths.

Some of the stories that emerge are unexpectedly comic.  Brant Walker, mayor of Alton, IL, announced the he directed the police department of the town to issue citations and arrests for those who failed to comply with Illinois’ stay-at-home order.  Two days later the police broke up a gathering at a bar in downtown and issued citations of reckless conduct to everyone who participated.  Walker’s wife was among them.  Walker, at least, has openly admitted his embarrassment.  He has assured citizens that his wife will be penalized as heavily as the others and has referred to her “stunning lack of judgment.” 

And then there are other tales that are downright sordid.  In the eastern part of Detroit two young women met on the streets for the express purpose of “fighting it out” – to use their own words – and many people gathered together to watch this thrilling spectacle.  Some of the more responsible residents called the police and begged them to interfere, but the police declined, citing their stretched resources.  Detroit’s sorry living conditions have been common knowledge for years, but there can be no doubt that this city has completely rotted.

Lori Lightfoot, the mayor of Chicago, had her hair cut and styled by a professional, although barbershops and salons are closed.  Lightfoot brushed aside criticisms of her behavior, stating that she is in the public eye and therefore needs to look her best.  In Her Honor’s own words, “I felt like I needed a haircut.”  Well, I guess that clears that up.

From Margaret Atwood’s The Handmaid’s Tale, set at some unknown time in the future, when the unnamed protagonist is reminiscing about an earlier age:  “You had to take those pieces of paper with you when you went shopping, though by the time I was nine or ten most people used plastic cards.  Not for the groceries, though, that came later.  It seems so primitive, totemistic even, like cowry shells.”  We are undeniably heading in that direction, approaching the time when credit will displace cash entirely, and the restrictions imposed by the virus will accelerate this trend.  Paying with cash is discouraged at the moment, because notes and coins passing through various hands are potential sources of contagion.  I like paying with cash myself:  a habit retained from my days as a graduate student, when I was living on a very restricted budget and wanted to know the state of my bank balance at all times.  When you pay with credit, it’s easier to lose track of your expenditures and then be unpleasantly surprised by the monthly statement from the credit card company.  It’s going to be even more difficult to practice the habit of thrift in the future than it is now, but then again it’s a habit that most of my compatriots have never thought of acquiring.

Speaking of future projections, we may be coming to a time when social conditions will be rather like those described in Erewhon, in which bad health of any kind is regarded as disreputable and even criminal.  Persons whose health is less robust than the average may be forced to subterfuges such as those used by Mahaina, the sickly young woman who conceals her illnesses by pretending to be a drunk.  As an invalid she would have been shunned by society; but as it is, her lady friends are very sympathetic towards her and inquire solicitously after her “poor dipsomania.”

Today I tried out a home-made mask again, and this one was reasonably successful:  I could walk about with my nostrils and mouth completely covered, and yet my breathing was not affected.  I don’t know whether it is entirely satisfactory – that is, I am uncertain as to how effective it might be in shielding me from any droplets from others.  Also, it was an unusually warm day for the time of day (about 80 degrees) and it was not altogether comfortable under such conditions.  Still, it was usable and I should be able to go out with it on in future.  I have a second mask as well, so that I can wash one out on the same day that I’m wearing another.

I had a bit of a scare this morning.  When typing at the workstation an area in the left eye became blurry.  I had had a detached retina in the right eye some years ago, and I wondered if the left one was going to follow suit.  So I left the workstation and went outside to perform an errand that I needed to do anyway, that of depositing a check from long-term care insurance into my mother’s account.  The bank is about a mile and a half away, and I deliberately returned on a rather circuitous route, walking about four miles in all.  By that time the blurriness had disappeared.  It was probably just eyestrain, but I will be monitoring the condition.  I do not want to see an eye doctor just now; appointments for any kind of medical treatment can be difficult to obtain at present.  My annual eye exam is due for June, so I hope I can wait until then.  By that time, one hopes, the worst of the virus’s effects will be over.  But if the condition recurs I will be forced to consult someone earlier.

Bernie Sanders has resigned from the race in the primaries, paving the way for Joe Biden to be nominated.  Sanders has not the least chance of winning an election, being completely devoid of economic sense or of sense of any other description for that matter.  Biden is certainly no Solomon, as the English would say, but he is honest, decent, and cultivated, and in all of these characteristics provides a most refreshing contrast to the man who currently holds office.

I never thought that I would live to see the day that I would become an ardent Democrat.  But the Republicans have brought this upon themselves; I suspect many with relatively conservative views feel as I do.  The Democrats, it is true, have mortgaged themselves to the Far Left.  I disagree heartily with many of their policies, such as opening up our doors to aliens entering illegally or striving to abolish the electoral college or making airplane travel so prohibitively expensive that none but the wealthiest will be able to afford it.  Their so-called liberalism has fallen into disrepute because it is littered with broken promises.  It is not a release from the forces of orthodoxy and dogmatism but their intensification; it has come to represent a compulsory yoke to the Marxist philosophy that has repeatedly paved the way to tyranny and oppression; and its adherents have already effected a merciless grinding down of the wage-earning classes that they have not known for decades – perhaps have never known.  

But the Republicans have done even worse.  They have tamely submitted to a thorough egomaniac who is concerned only with staying in power and is indifferent to every other consideration.  His folly and incompetence in dealing with the pandemic (or indeed with any other problem) are apparent even to the dullest comprehension, and its results will be little short of catastrophic in a matter of weeks:  thousands of people dead, many thousands of businesses ruined, and a health care system left in a shambles as a result of the strain it will undergo.  Like well-bred spaniels, they flatter him without stint whenever he falls into a paroxysm of rage – a fairly frequent occasion – express gratitude for the unkindness with which they are treated, and grovel at his feet whenever he addresses them.  They have almost all become Trump’s menials, and their association with him appears to have drained every vestige of sense or manhood from them.

Such is the current state of the two parties that hold the fate of the nation in their hands.  I wish that there were an alternative to them, but there is none.

I am forced, therefore, to fling in my lot with the Democrats and to hope that Biden, if and when he comes to power, will be able to impose a measure of restraint on the more extreme members of his party – and hope, also, that in four years’ time the Republicans will have learned something from their ignominious association with a man who would have assumed the powers of a satrap if he could, and bring forth a candidate for the 2024 election somewhat more suited to the leadership of a free country.  This last hope, however, remains precisely that – a hope, little supported by conviction or confidence.  The Republicans have become so used to crawling on their bellies during the past four years that it will be no easy matter for them to learn how to stand upright again.

Tonight will begin the first seder of Passover.  This ceremony tends to be the occasion for family get-togethers, but these will have to be abandoned this year.

Charlotte Figi is dead at the age of 13, one of the youngest victims of the virus.  She suffered from epilepsy, and the only treatment that gave her relief was the application of oil obtained from cannabis; her situation was a major catalyst that led to the legalization of marijuana in medical treatments.  And in fact, it has proven effective in cases of epilepsy when the more usual array of pharmaceuticals has failed.  The treatment enabled her to get relief from seizures and eventually to wean her from the feeding tube that her condition originally necessitated.  And now, having successfully overcome that hurdle and having thus obtained a childhood somewhat less free from perpetual invalidism, she was attacked by the virus and succumbed just as life was opening up to her.  Poor child, poor child!

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 1,511,104; # of deaths worldwide: 88,338; # of cases U.S.: 429,052; # of deaths U.S.: 14,695.  In about half a day the number of cases here has increased by 30,000 and the number of deaths by nearly 2,000.

April 7, 2020

Evening statistics – Driving early in moonlight – The “Redbud” hike – Boris Johnson – Removal of a parasite – Yaakov Litzman – Rand Paul – Reluctance of black men to wear masks – John Prine

Today’s statistics as of 6:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 1,415,415; # of deaths worldwide: 81,200; # of cases U.S.: 386,617; # of deaths U.S.: 12,285.  The number of active cases in China has fallen to below 2,000.  But in Spain and Italy they continue to increase, albeit somewhat less rapidly than before.  The totals in France and Germany have also spiraled.

I had to get up early to drive to a hike today.  It was still dark and the moon was visible.  It was a full moon, somewhat yellow in color, almost golden but with overtones of pink.    

The hike I completed was the “Redbud” hike with the Vigorous Hikers.  It has a somewhat interesting history.  For many years the PATC sponsored a 32-mile hike in the Massanuttens called the “Dogwood.”  In those days I did not feel confident enough to hike such a distance, but one year I decided that, although I could not participate that year because of schedule conflicts, I would enter myself for the event on the following year.  But there was no event for the following year; one of the hikers died from a fall in the event and although she, along with every other participant, had signed a waiver, her widower threatened to sue the PATC if they sponsored another such event.  So it was dropped.

The Vigorous Hikers club thereupon decided to take it up, albeit in a modified form.  For many years it set up a long hike called the “Redbud”, which generally consisted of starting from one end of the Catoctin Trail and ending at the other:  26 miles in all.  However, that route was not feasible this year, since it would have required a shuttle.  Instead, we did a route in the Great North Mountain area, starting and ending at the Bucktail parking area:  about 8½ miles on the Long Mountain Trail to Rte. 591, about 2 miles on Rte. 591 to the Tibbett Knob Trail, about 2 miles on the Tibbett Knob Trail to Wolf Gap, about 6 miles on the Mill Mountain Trail to the Tuscarora Trail, about 1½ miles on the Tuscarora Trail to the Halfmoon Trail, about 2 miles on the Halfmoon Trail to the Bucktail Cutoff Trail, and about 3 miles on the Bucktail Cutoff Trail back to the parking lot – about 25 miles total, with about 5000 feet elevation gain.  For those who (as I did) added the scramble up to Big Schloss, an additional half-mile of distance and nearly 200 feet of elevation gain should be factored in.  As with the hike in Pennsylvania five days earlier, I had an uneasy feeling that we were adhering to the letter of the law rather than the spirit.  We are allowed to go out for exercise and recreation, and there are no limits set on the distance we may drive to obtain it or the amount of time we spend outside for the purpose.  But I think that if Ralph Northam were aware that I and the others drove 1½ -2½ hours to a trailhead and then proceeded to hike 8 to 11 hours on end, he would not approve.  And yet we certainly were practicing social distancing; there were only eight of us and we rapidly dispersed, since we go at different paces; and we were hiking on trails that were not heavily used; in all of that distance I saw only six other hikers who were not part of our group.  But in California going outside for recreational activity has now fallen under the ban; it is not out of the question that the Mid-Atlantic states will follow suit.

Boris Johnson continues to be in critical condition.  His symptoms are serious but he is considered stable.

Thomas Muddle – er, Modly – has been ousted for the very thing he accused Brett Crozier of doing:  publicly leaking an audio of his profanity-laced address to the USS Theodore Roosevelt crew, in which he called Crozier “stupid” for elevating the issue of the effects of the virus on the crew to the media.  The difference, of course, is that Crozier was motivated by concern for the health of the men for whom he felt responsible, whereas Modly’s motives consisted mainly of desiring to earn brownie points from President Trump, who evidently is his tutor in manners.  I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that sheer personal spite was a factor as well.  The outraged reaction from the crew, the media, and the Congressional representatives was so intense as to make it clear even to him that he was no longer wanted by anyone, in any capacity.  This news is well enough as far as it goes – it certainly is good to know that this destructive barnacle has been scraped off of the deck once and for all – but who is to compensate Crozier for the loss of his command, the blighting of his career, and the public humiliation he has received from the President of the United States?

Yaakov Litzman, the Israeli health minister, claimed that the coronavirus is a divine punishment for the sin of homosexuality.  He has since been diagnosed with the virus.  I can only infer that his love life is more varied than is generally supposed.

Rand Paul has become the first senator to test positive for the coronavirus.  He has since recovered and is doing volunteer work at the hospital where he was treated; he was a doctor before he became a politician.  His father, who is also a doctor, claimed that the coronavirus is a hoax.  The virus has since infected nearly 400,000 people in this country alone.  I wish some of my hoaxes were as effective.

Several black men are reluctant to wear masks, because when they do people assume that they contemplating a hold-up or some other crime.  We have not as a nation made much progress in racial relations.

John Prine died today from the virus.  I noted his contracting of the virus a little over a week ago; it can wreak its destruction with horrifying speed.

April 6, 2020

Morning statistics – Tony Spell again – Boris Johnson – Margaret Cirko – A friend with the virus – Reminders of life in graduate school – The mask still needs work – Brett Crozier and Thomas Modly – Wildlife growing bolder – Virginia – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 1,280,046; # of deaths worldwide: 70,356; # of cases U.S.: 337,993; # of deaths U.S.: 9,653.  In China the number of active cases is just over 2,000; this number at least is steadily diminishing – if only their statistics could be trusted!  The incidence of the virus has greatly expanded in Germany, with over 100,000 cases and 1,500 deaths.  In some European nations the curve appears to be flattening, but this trend is sporadic.  In Denmark, for example, they are thinking of easing the stay-at-home policies on account of the diminishing number of new cases; whereas the U.K. has had a large increase of both cases and deaths.  It is a puzzle to me why the mortality rate is so high there:  over 10%.  Their health care system is not in the state of disarray that prevails in Spain and their population does not have quite as much preponderance of the elderly.

Tony Spell continues to defy the stay-at-home order issued by Bel Edwards, governor of Louisiana, and to hold church services despite the ban against gatherings of ten people or more, and Governor Edwards continues to fail to take action against him.

Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister of the U.K., is hospitalized, ten days after being diagnosed with the virus.  He is now in intensive care.  His fiancée, Carrie Symonds, also has symptoms of the virus but has not required hospitalization. 

Margaret Cirko, a woman in Luzerne County, PA, has charged with felony counts of terrorist threats, threats to use a “biological agent,” and criminal mischief.  She intentionally coughed and spat on the produce of a grocery store, forcing it to throw away $35000 worth of produce.  The charges sound extreme; but Ms. Cirko seems to be as low a creature as ever walked on two legs, so I am not inclined to quarrel with the authorities for slamming the book at her.

PF, president of the Capital Hiking Club, was affected by the virus this past weekend.  He says, however, that it was a mild case and that he has recovered.  The club’s hikes are to be postponed indefinitely.  The visit to California to hike in Kings Canyon, initially set to June 6-14, will probably be canceled.  In all probability the visit to my friends in New Jersey next month will be canceled as well.  At this point only the trip to September to Colorado has not been affected, and even the plans for that remain uncertain.

The pattern of my life now reminds me to an extent of my life in Philadelphia when I was a graduate at the University of Pennsylvania.  It was not a happy time in many ways, and yet there is a strange satisfaction in looking back on it.  For several years I was dependent on my teaching stipend, which was $4000 per year, later raised to $5000.  Of course these figures were for the late 1970s and early 1980s, so they were less scandalously low than they may appear.  Still, it made for living on a very narrow margin.  Excursions for grocery shopping had to be planned in advance and it was necessary to adhere to a very strict budget.  Also, I rarely ate out, a practice which restricted social activities with my fellow-students.  In order to save time, I would cook food in bulk and refrigerate or freeze it.  I was not living in poverty in the strictest sense of the word; I would spend the summers in my parents’ house and I always had the knowledge that if I ever got hopelessly mired in debt, they would bail me out.  Nonetheless an experience such as mine has this advantage if it is successfully sustained:  the prospect of living again on a reduced scale does not hold any terrors for me.  I like to think that I looked after myself rather well.  I even managed to put by a little nest egg during this time.  My mother was actually a bit disappointed that I never brought back any laundry of mine for her to wash whenever I visited home; she would have done it gladly, but I did not wish to be waited upon in that way in my early twenties, like a child at nurse. 

I tried using a homemade mask today when I went out, but I still have to work on it; it practically stifled me when I put it on.  And in this context it may be mentioned that President Trump refuses to wear a mask at all, despite the recommendations of the CDC.  That is rather surprising, since his sense of self-preservation is in general tolerably keen.  Is it simply that personal vanity prevents him from covering up his face in public?  Surely he does not suppose that people’s gazes linger upon his features in contemplation of their beauty; that would be too much self-delusion, even for him.

Brett Crozier must be ruing the day that he ever joined the Navy.  Not only has he been abused by the Navy Secretary and showered with contempt from the President on account of his pleas to preserve the lives of the men on the USS Theodore Roosevelt under his command, but he has now contracted the coronavirus as a result of serving on that ill-fated vessel.  Elaine Luria, a member of the House of Representatives, is calling for the ouster of Thomas Modly, Trump’s sordid apparatchik who shunted Crozier off so unceremoniously.  I am happy to say that she represents a district from Virginia.  I hope she has the strength of purpose to pursue this objective and get other Congressional members to rally behind her. 

The wildlife is growing bolder as a result of the reduction of human activity.  While walking in suburban Fairfax today, I saw a fox cross a street and dash through the back yard of one of the houses.

Virginia has a relatively low number of cases.  It is the 12th most populous state in the country, but 23rd on the list of number of positive cases.  But there is a shortage of testing supplies in the state and in all probability only a fraction of people who are actually infected in Virginia have been tested. 

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 1,345,048; # of deaths worldwide: 74,679; # of cases U.S.: 367,507; # of deaths U.S.: 10,908.  In 14 hours the U.S. incidence of cases has increased by about 30,000 and the number of deaths by 1,000.

April 5, 2020

Morning statistics – Palm Sunday – The evangelicals as a loose cannon – Another attempt at making a face mask – Brett Crozier pays the penalty for his imprudence – Donald Trump, Monarch of Pointland – Fatal accident in the Chesapeake Bay – The address of Queen Elizabeth II – New Orleans – Loss of holiday celebrations – Evening statistics – Spring continues apace

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 1,213,927; # of deaths worldwide: 65,652; # of cases U.S.: 312,245; # of deaths U.S.: 8,503.  Both Spain and Italy now have a death rate of over 0.025% of their population – that is to say, over one in four thousand have died.  New York City had 562 deaths yesterday, an average of one death every 2½ minutes.

Today is Palm Sunday, and we shall see how much restraint the churches will show in the services ordinarily held for that occasion.  Still, the Catholics are behaving quite sensibly.  Pope Francis is conducting the liturgies via livestream.  Public masses have been suspended in Italy since March 8th, and the Vatican has followed suit.  And in this country the Catholic churches all appear to have moved their services online.  The Episcopalians and the Lutherans have shown a similar degree of restraint.   

The problem, of course, lies with the evangelicals.  “Satan is trying to keep us apart!” is their banner-cry.  The pastors continue their ostrich-like behavior towards the impending hazard and pretend that it doesn’t exist, or that at any rate it will refrain from harming the holiness of them and their congregations.  The governors of most states have issued stay-at-home orders, but when it comes to these pastors they simply will not touch them, for fear of offending an important bloc of voters.  Satan, if he exists, must be chuckling and rubbing his hands with glee at this outcome.

I tried using a homemade mask today and while it was not perfect it certainly was better than my last attempt in this direction.  I will have to acquire elastic bands, however, like those that women use to bind up their ponytails; rubber bands are too fragile. 

The number of coronavirus cases on the USS Theodore Roosevelt is now 155, an increase of 15% in a day.  Thomas Modly, the Navy Secretary, has said that the firing of its captain was done on his own violation and that he received no prompting from Trump.  But as the normal procedure for relieving an officer of his command involves a preliminary military investigation (which almost certainly would have exonerated Brett Crozier and might even have ended up commending him) that Modly completely short-circuited, this claim is, to put it mildly, suspect.  Trump has followed up venting abuse upon the commander, with that happy combination of insolence and boorishness for which he is so celebrated.  Whether Modly acted on Trump’s orders or acted on his own initiative out of purely disinterested sycophancy remains uncertain, but there can be no doubt that Crozier has become yet another of the myriads sacrificed on the altar of Trump’s ego.

In Edwin Abbott’s classic Flatland, which describes a two-dimensional world in order to satirize the hierarchical nature of Victorian England, one of the last chapters provides a glimpse of yet another world, Pointland, in which an infinitesimal point is its sole inhabitant and monarch.  Since he is unable to see any other object and since the only voice he ever hears is his own, he naturally regards himself as the center of the universe and perceives any variety of communication as a thought originating in his own mind.  And that is a perfect description of Donald Trump:  he is the Man of No Dimensions.

Another tragedy in the midst of this crisis, though unrelated to the disease:  Maeve Kennedy McKean, granddaughter of Robert Kennedy, and her 8-year old son Gideon went on a canoe along the Chesapeake three days ago and have been missing ever since.  Apparently they went on the canoe simply to retrieve a ball that they were using for a game, but the wind or tide or both propelled the canoe from a shielded cove into the bay and at one point afterwards the canoe capsized.  They are now presumed dead.  The Chesapeake can get squally very quickly and quite unexpectedly.  It has proven deadly even to experienced boaters, and the winds were very strong this past Thursday.  David McKean, Maeve’s widower, is now left with two remaining children to bring up on his own. 

Royalty certainly has its uses.  Queen Elizabeth II has addressed the nation, trying to bolster the spirits of the British just as her parents did in World War II.  Indeed, she made reference to the first broadcast she did with her sister in 1940, as a reminder that Britons managed to overcome a great national and international crisis then and that they will be able to do so again.  She is still able, at the age of 93, to send out a message of encouragement and hope and strength of will.  Our own so-called leaders look pitiable in comparison with her.

New Orleans is now a major “hot spot.”  Its death rate is nearly 38 per 100,000 people, or twice that of New York City.  It is an unhealthy area to begin with; the residents have a higher-than-average incidence of obesity, diabetes, kidney problems, and heart disease. 

It’s hard on such a great number of people to miss out on the usual Palm Sunday traditions.  There are many merry and festive traditions that have had to be foregone this year.  It’s especially hard on the children who were looking forward to them.  Adults can say, “Well, at any rate there’s always next year,” but to a child a year seems like an obscenely long amount of time.  I am bound to say that the overwhelming majority of church leaders and congregations have been completely serious and responsible; difficult as it undoubtedly was for them to refrain from gathering together for one of the most important religious holidays of the year, they confined themselves to online services and masses.  Passover will be arriving in three days; will the fundamentalist Jews be just as foolish and self-centered as the evangelicals or will they behave more sensibly?  I have no worries about the others, incidentally, at any rate those residing in my own country.  They will not need much persuasion to shy away from synagogue services; the difficulty during normal times is to convince them to attend.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 1,272,115; # of deaths worldwide: 69,374; # of cases U.S.: 337,072; # of deaths U.S.: 9,619.  At this point the number of people affected by the virus is about one out of every thousand in the U.S.  The medical experts have warned the nation that the week to come will be a “week of woe,” with a greater increase of cases than we have seen to this point, though there are some hopes that after ten days or so the rate of increase will recede.

And in the meantime spring continues to advance with an appearance of cheerful indifference.  The grass is becoming greener and taller, the leaves of the trees are beginning to bud and unfurl; the bluebell is in flower.

April 4, 2020

Morning statistics – Personal under-estimates of speed and magnitude of virus – Spain – More states with stay-at-home orders – Fairfax County – Hospital care for people with issues other than COVID-19 – Evening statistics

Today’s statistics as of 10:30 AM — # of cases worldwide: 1,139,207; # of deaths worldwide: 60,874; # of cases U.S.: 278,537; # of deaths U.S.: 7,193.  In the course of 24 hours the number of cases has increased by more than 100,000 and the number of deaths by more than 5,000.  More than 1,000 of these additional deaths are in the U.S. alone.

I suppose during every epidemic there are people who at first can’t believe what is happening and attempt to downplay its effects.  I plead guilty to that myself.  I didn’t write the matter off as a hoax, as certain somewhat more highly placed persons were known to do – our own President among them – but I certainly did not anticipate the scale it would acquire, nor the speed with which it would increase.  When LE persuaded the Capital Hiking Club to suspend the club hikes and the board agreed, I privately thought her apprehensions a bit overblown.  That was on March 14th – less than three weeks ago.  Now I see that, if anything, she was showing a great deal of restraint in her predictions.  Influenza carries off, in very rough figures, about 55,000 people in the course of a year in this country.  The death count from the coronavirus has now surpassed 7,000, and this is only the beginning. 

It is said that Spain is approaching its peak.  Today there were 809 deaths – which sounds like an enormous number to me, but apparently it is the lowest Spain has had for a week. 

Alabama, Missouri, and Oklahoma have stay-at-home orders in effect.  The only states without them now are South Carolina, Utah, Wyoming, Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota.  It is true that these states currently have a low incidence of cases and fatalities.  But that may change.

Some encouraging news, on a local level at least:  the number of cases in Fairfax County has risen by only 15, the lowest increase for the week. 

RK is feeling better, but her experience throws an interesting light on our hospital situation.  She has to undergo treatment for follow-up of the removal of certain cancer cells and the hospital has warned her that patients may have to wait in their cars until their names are called; they do not want to risk having several people sitting together in a waiting room.  Treatments for illnesses outside of the virus have been greatly complicated by the epidemic.

Today’s statistics as of 9:45 PM — # of cases worldwide: 1,201,591; # of deaths worldwide: 64,703; # of cases U.S.: 311,301; # of deaths U.S.: 8,476.  In a little over a week the number of cases in the U.S. has trebled.

April 3, 2020

Evening statistics – Increasing percentage of cases in U.S. – The advantages of travel on foot – The advisability of stay-at-home orders – The resolution of Governor Hogan – Restrictions on funerals – Lack of bread at stores

Today’s statistics as of 10:30 PM — # of cases worldwide: 1,039,166; # of deaths worldwide: 55,092; # of cases U.S.: 245,646; # of deaths U.S.: 6,068.  The number of active cases in China is now under 2,500, according to their statistics, which of course cannot be taken for gospel.  Spain has surpassed Italy in the number of cases.  And the mortality rate there is now quite high – over 9%.  Like Italy, it has a large elderly population and an overstrained health care system.  It has, in addition, high population densities in cities like Madrid, a pattern of social behavior that strongly encourages physical contact (kissing upon greeting is quite common), and numerous communal buildings; also, the health care system is very fragmented and decentralized, being run by several autonomous regions. 

The U.S. now accounts for a quarter of the cases worldwide.  The New York City area is the most greatly affected; the death toll there is over 1,500 (nearly 3,000 in the state at large).  Its morgues are full.

I had several errands to run today and I contemplated using the car, especially since I had hiked so much the day before.  But my fate was already decided for me:  there is construction on my street this week and the workers had blocked my driveway for the third day running.  I didn’t need to go anywhere on Wednesday, and yesterday I drove out before the construction workers arrived; but today I was forced to be active whether I desired it or not.  This is not necessarily a bad thing.

I hate to admit it, but people who are accustomed to doing the majority of their errands on foot have a definite advantage in times like these.  This morning I had to go to the Oriental market to pick up fresh fruits and vegetables and other items, to the bank to deposit a check from the IRS in my mother’s account, and to the pharmacy to pick up a prescription.  It was between 6 and 7 miles according to my cell phone app, which consistently underestimates distances and elevation gains – not a bad haul.  It was such a fine day, too, that it would have been a shame to waste it sitting indoors all the time.  Sunny, fresh, clear, brisk, and breezy – what could be better?

Dr. Fauci has said that at this point all states should have stay-at-home orders.  Currently 11 states do not:  Alabama, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Utah, Wyoming, Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota.  Of these, the first six contain individual regions that have such orders but also several regions that do not.  The latter five have no restrictions at all.

Larry Hogan, the governor of Maryland, has proven himself to be a man of some force of character.  Unlike other Republicans, he has not hesitated to criticize Trump for ignoring the crisis at the beginning and he is aggressively attempting to acquire test kits for the state from South Korea.  His wife, who is South Korean, negotiated directly with the South Korean authorities to obtain them.  Nor is he afraid to enforce his directives.  Already two people have been arrested for ignoring his orders restricting gatherings greater than ten persons. 

Funerals are now doubly tragic for families who have undergone a loss; now only ten people may be allowed to attend services and in any case it is impossible for most relatives to travel to participate in them. 

We are starting to feel the pinch here at several of the stores still open.  Today no bread was available at Panera’s; I will have to make my own.

April 2, 2020

Afternoon statistics – Hiking in Pennsylvania – Factors that increase risk – Brett Crozier commits the unforgivable offense of placing the safety of his men over Trump’s reputation – Medical supplies from Russia

Today’s statistics as of 4:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 1,011,490; # of deaths worldwide: 52,863; # of cases U.S.: 242,182; # of deaths U.S.: 5,850.  At this point we have broken several milestones, which most of us would have preferred to have remained intact:  the number of cases exceeds one million; the number of deaths exceeds fifty thousand; the number of cases in the U.S. exceeds two hundred thousand.

Virginia has 1,706 cases and 41 deaths; of these, Fairfax County has 328 cases and 5 deaths.  So it is coming close to home.

I went hiking on the Appalachian Trail in Pennsylvania today:  18 ½ miles, with about 3000 feet elevation gain.  (For those who wish to follow the route, I parked at the Rte. 225 parking area and did a there-and-back to the west end of the Clarke’s Ferry bridge over the Susquehanna.  This is about 15½ miles round trip, but on the way back I took the Susquehanna Trail to ascend the ridge and rejoin the AT, which cut off a mile.  When I reached the parking lot I went 2 miles in the other direction to the Table Rock overlook and then returned.)  Strictly speaking, I was in compliance with the stay-at-home order, which does allow people to get outside for exercise, but undoubtedly I was obeying the letter of the law rather than the spirit; I doubt if the Virginia governor would approve of my driving 2 ½ hours for this purpose.  I also was not obeying the recommendations of the Appalachian Trail Conservancy, but I rationalized that I was on a rather obscure part of the trail, not much used by other hikers.  And indeed I encountered very few on this segment, although, interestingly, some cars were pulling into the parking area just as I was leaving.  There is no question, however, that hiking up a steep ascent is an excellent way of maintaining one’s health.  I had started from Rte. 225 and as I went towards the bridge I was feeling a bit headachy and flagging in energy, but once I reversed direction and went up via the Susquehanna Trail I immediately felt much better. 

On the radio I heard a piece of news that was, from a purely selfish point of view, quite encouraging.  Over three-fourths of the fatalities occurred among people with underlying conditions such as diabetes, asthma, heart trouble, etc.  I don’t have any of these, so I am relatively low-risk, despite my age.  On the other hand, 20% of the people who contracted the virus are under 40, so I must not get over-confident.

Donald Trump has been tested a second time for coronavirus but it did not turn out happily.  He tested negative.

Captain Brett Crozier has been relieved of his command of the USS Theodore Roosevelt.  And what was his offense?  He made an appeal for the removal of the (roughly) forty-eight hundred crew members on the carrier because several tested positive for the virus and pleaded for them to receive medical attention.  That was bad publicity, you see, and of course we mustn’t have that.  Silly man – doesn’t he know that our President values his image far more than several thousand lives?

Russia has delivered several medical supplies to the U.S. and to New York in particular, where the medical facilities are very glad to get them.  There seems to be little chance of their getting adequate resources from the current administration.

April 1, 2020

Afternoon statistics – Inept national leaders – North Korea – Decline in acceleration – The selflessness of Giuseppe Berardelli – Potential loss of college football season – What goes into the making of a headline? – Tony Spell and Bel Edwards – Contrast of attitudes between Sweden on one hand and Malaysia and Vietnam on the other – Outbreak in a nursing home – The Hajj at risk

Today’s statistics as of 4:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 873,767; # of deaths worldwide: 43,288; # of cases U.S.: 189,633; # of deaths U.S.: 4,081.  Our President appears to be facing realities at last, although I must say that it’s bit late in the day.  He has warned the nation to expect between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths by the time the virus has finished its course.

I wonder what future historians will make of the abundance of national leaders in our time who are manifestly unqualified for their jobs.  There are the thoroughly vicious ones, such as Kim Jong-un, who not only trouble the outside world with their sable-rattling but who bear down on their own serfs – and there is no other word for them – with a rod of iron; there are the “practical” ones, such as Xi Jinping, who sacrifice thousands of citizens and pollute the environment with perfect obliviousness in their pursuit of wealth; there are the buffoons, such as Alexander Lukashenko, who without being actively malevolent manage to do a great deal of harm by a combination of over-weaning self-confidence, complete ignorance of the most basic tenets of science or economics, a constant need for attention as great as that of a spoiled nine-year old child, and unlimited power.  Trump definitely falls into this third category. 

North Korea claims to have no cases of the virus.  That is doubtful, to put it mildly.  It is probable, indeed, that the virus at present is far less prevalent than in China or South Korea.  North Korea has practiced self-isolation – quarantine, in fact – from most other nations for decades.  Still, such photographs and reports that emerge from that nation indicate that the virus is making the rounds; and with the country’s shattered medical care system and the number of North Koreans suffering from malnutrition, it seems probable that there will be considerable devastation in the weeks to come.

Some good news:  recently there has been a trend of deceleration in the number of new cases on a day-by-day basis.  From March 22nd to March 30th the increase in the number of new cases from the number of new cases of the preceding day has been:  3/23 – 789; 3/24 – 886; 3/25 – 2280; 3/26 – 3869; 3/27 – 1467; 3/28 – 761; 3/29 – 461; 3/30 – 384.  We may get to negative acceleration by the end of the month.

Since it sounds like I’ve been bashing religion in these notes I will mention an example of nobility inspired by religious faith.  Giuseppe Berardelli, an Italian priest serving in a small village near Milan, was greatly beloved by his congregation and when he contracted the virus they bought him a respirator.  He insisted, however, on giving the respirator away to a patient who was younger (he was 72) and struggling for breath on the grounds that this other person, whom he did not know at all, had a greater need than he did.  He did this knowing very well that such a deed might result in his death; and so it did.  Even though it was impossible under the current circumstances to hold a funeral for him, all of the inhabitants of the village mourned his passing.

If I contract the disease, I must bear in mind that I am 65 and have lived a full life, and that I must not take away resources from others who are afflicted and who have not yet had the opportunities to sample what life has to offer.  I sincerely hope that such fine-sounding resolutions never need be put to the test; but if the worst comes, may I have the strength of purpose to adhere to them.

Ironically these who are not felled by the disease are becoming healthier in general, on account of the absence of fast food and the greater reliance on biking and walking to perform errands.

The author of one article speculates that the coronavirus scare could cancel the American university football season.  What a boon that would be if so!  The college sports programs are not the only factor that is weakening our educational system, but they comprise a major one.  A university should be a place for study, not for playing games – at least, not for playing games as a major focal point.  Football as a leisure activity is fine.  Football as an alternative for concentrated intellectual effort is bad.  So it is with baseball, basketball, lacrosse, and so on.  These young men and women striving to be professional athletes at their colleges’ expense have badly diluted the quality of the average student on American campuses.  I can remember the days that I taught Freshman English at the University of Pennsylvania and was forced to attempt to instill the rudimentary principles of grammar to one player on the university basketball team.  He was not arrogant by any means; on the contrary he was very gentle, very anxious to please – but he simply did not belong on a college campus.  I took more pains with him than I would have done had he been conceited or assumed that he was entitled to special privileges on account of his position in a sports team; as it was, I spent hours trying to get him to understand such basic principles as parts of speech, tenses, gender.  It was a wasted effort.  Such concepts were beyond his powers of comprehension.  It was the same story in his other classes; he spent most of his classroom time in a state of fuddled bewilderment and was comfortable only on the playing field.  I sometimes wonder what became of him.  I can only hope that he connected with a capable, strong-minded woman who was able to look after the interests of this man-child.

Journalists sometimes have very peculiar ideas of what constitutes newsworthy items.  I’ve seen a number of articles devoted to the topic of John Cusack calling for Trump’s impeachment.  And who, a historian a century or so in the future may ask, is John Cusack?  A prominent Senator?  A state governor?  A Cabinet member?  None of these things – he is a movie actor!  Quite a good actor, for all I know, but nonetheless a man with no legal qualifications whatever.  I dislike Trump myself, as I’ve noted repeatedly, and I would gladly see him impeached and removed from office; but I would not expect these opinions of mine to be reported in the national news.

Tony Spell, a pastor in central Louisiana, persists in holding crowded church services, despite the order from Bel Edwards, the state governor, banning gatherings.  Edwards says that he has been “extremely patient” with the pastor and has made an appeal for “one more time:  please stop what you’re doing.”  In the same way, parents of spoiled brats persist in making idle threats of punishment that they are too faint-hearted to carry out and which, of course, the children completely ignore.  Why are priests and pastors handled with kid gloves?  If I were a governor and had issued an order banning gatherings, I’d go after anyone who defied it so brazenly, be he cleric or laic.  There seems to be hardly one governor in power who could make such a claim.

Here is a list of the current death rates in the top ten countries in terms of their overall population:  Italy, 0.0207%; Spain, 0.0193%; France, 0.0053%; UK, 0.0027%; Sweden, 0.0024%; Denmark, 0.0017%; USA, 0.0012%; Germany, 0.0010%; Norway, 0.0009%; Finland, 0.0003%.  Sweden, as can be seen, is fifth on this list.  Yet the Swedes continue to adopt a “business as normal” attitude.  There are prohibitions against gatherings of more than 50 and restaurants must seat people at tables rather than allowing them to sit at bars; but other than that, they are acting as if there is no threat at all.  I suppose that their government is doing an excellent job of reassuring them from fear; whether such a policy is conducive to overall national health (and international as well – after all, the virus does not recognize borders) remains to be seen. 

Incidentally, both in Malaysia and Vietnam the fear of contracting the virus runs very high indeed, and both countries have taken rigorous measures to contain it.  Malaysia has had 45 deaths so far (out of a population of 31 million people) and Vietnam has had none, so their reaction appears to have been a better approach than Sweden’s.  Malaysia has banned all sports, religious, social, and cultural activities, and everyone in the country appears to be in compliance.  This must be a fairly unusual example of fundamentalist Muslims showing much more restraint than fundamentalist Christians.

Another sad story:  Richard Bliss, 38, fell into despair as a result of the spread of the virus causing him to lose his job.  He shot his girlfriend four times, then turned the gun on himself.  He died, but happily the girlfriend managed to escape with a wound to the back and she is expected to survive.  The loss of my job at that age, with no immediate prospect of finding a new one, certainly would have depressed me; but I don’t believe I would have committed suicide.  But it’s so easy to pass judgment on someone else under such circumstances.  I am now financially secure, with the house paid off long ago and investment payments and pensions from corporations, with the prospect of getting Social Security as well in seven months.  I am well-aware that concern about money can lead people to do strange things.  I certainly feel less judgmental towards him than I do towards Tony Spell.

There has been an outbreak in a Maryland nursing home, brought in by an asymptomatic worker.  But how was he to know?  The home tested people by taking their temperatures whenever they entered the building.  Since he was asymptomatic, his temperature was normal.  Once he came into the building and made his rounds, the virus spread with astonishing speed and thoroughness.  Of the 95 residents, 77 tested positive for the disease.  Such situations are bound to become more common.  It could occur in the assisted living facility where my mother lives.  And the carrier might conceivably be me.

There is the possibility that the Hajj may be canceled.  Saudi Arabia has warned pilgrims to hold off on booking reservations, although it has not canceled the event just yet.  It takes place in July and August, and it is possible matters will be somewhat more settled then – though whether it will be prudent to set up an event involving 2 million people is still far from certain.  In general, the Muslim religious authorities seem to be showing a much greater sense of responsibility than the Christian ones, at any rate the evangelical Christian authorities. The Umra, a shorter holy expedition to Mecca that may be performed at any time in the year, has already been banned for the time being.

March 31, 2020

Afternoon statistics – Difficulties of data collection – Non-solitary hiking – Rodney Howard Browne’s punishment – Another unexpected recovery – Fortuitous finds in the stores – Speculations about potential increase in suicides – The goats of Llandudno – The homeless in Los Angeles and Seattle

Today’s statistics as of 4:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 846,156; # of deaths worldwide: 41,494; # of cases U.S.: 181,099; # of deaths U.S.: 3,606.   Italy today saw the lowest rate of increase that it has experienced in the past two weeks.  In China the number of cases still active continues to decline – assuming, of course, one can believe their data.  If they are lying they are at any rate doing so very consistently; the data they give presents a situation in which some new cases occur every day and some deaths as well, but in which generally the rate of increase is shrinking and the aggregate number still afflicted with the disease is declining.  By their own showing, they still have quite a way to go.  Life in Wuhan is getting back to normal; shops are re-opening and food is being transported with greater ease than before.  Nonetheless it is possible that the death count is far higher than claimed; in Wuhan alone some estimates are for 42,000.  Experts say that the count may be further skewed because asymptomatic people may not be included.  That seems probable enough; if they are asymptomatic, how is it possible to know whether they have the virus or not?  For that matter, I myself might have contracted the virus without being aware of it, since it can take up to two weeks following incubation before the symptoms appear; without testing, there is no way to tell, and it simply isn’t practical to test everyone. 

I hiked with the Vigorous Hikers in the area around Bolivar Heights and Loudoun Heights.  I was in two minds about participating:  I wasn’t sure whether I was violating the stay-at-home order (it permits going outside for exercise but it’s unclear regarding the extent one can be out and also the extent one can drive to a trailhead or park), but it was very pleasant to be able to hike with friends after being on the trails in solitude for a week.  The stay-at-home order for Virginia has shut down beaches, and no in-person classes may be held at colleges and universities.  But there are no restrictions for travel for the purposes of recreation, provided one observes social distancing with anyone else he or she may encounter.  Maryland’s stay-at-home order is more stringent; it prohibits people from driving out of state.  But I don’t see how that can enforced without putting up some sort of guard on every road that crosses a state border – and there are dozens of them.  Other than that, it does allow travel for the purposes of exercise.

MC was among the group and we ruefully recalled our conversation of four weeks ago, when France had 204 cases, and how we both felt inclined to believe that the concerns of the experts were over-inflated.  In four short weeks the number of France’s affected population is approaching one in a thousand.  The mortality rate there is over 6½%.  The mortality rate in the U.S. is under 2% — so far, that is.  But since a mere 3% of the people who contracted the virus have recovered and the remainder are still fighting the disease, that figure may alter.

Rodney Howard-Browne was arrested for his gross disregard of the safety of his congregation and his fellow countrymen at large; but since he was released a bare 40 minutes later after putting up a $500 bond, it does not appear that he underwent any great privations for his misconduct. 

Yet another elderly Italian survivor:  Italica Grondona, who tested positive for the virus but whose symptoms were mild, has completely recovered.  She is 102.  And there is a veteran in Oregon, Bill Kelly, who has also recovered, in spite of being 95.

Some useful finds at the stores today.  No wipes; I suppose that’s too much to expect.  But I picked up a package of paper towels and also some rubbing alcohol, which means I can make disinfecting wipes of my own.  The bottle of rubbing alcohol that I bought was the last one on the shelf; it will probably be a while before it gets restocked.

Query:  will the suicide rate go up as a result of so much enforced solitude?  It seems possible, indeed likely.  Ditto for domestic homicides, with so many families forced to live at close quarters and never able to get away from one another.

A truly bizarre episode:  the coastal town of Llandudno has been overrun by a herd of wild goats as a result of the lockdown.  With hardly anyone in the town able to venture onto the streets on account of the lockdown, the goats have descended from the nearby mountains to snack on the hedges that border the gardens, as well as the grass and the flower beds in the gardens themselves. 

The homeless of Los Angeles and Seattle are being infected by the virus.  It has been only a matter of time.  Officials fear that it will sweep like wildfire among them; they are particularly vulnerable, since in general they are subject to many conditions (diabetes, heart disease, lung disease) that can weaken their resistance.

March 30, 2020

Morning statistics – Canadian website about COVID-19 – Rodney Howard Browne – Trump’s belated prudence – Spring break and aftermath – Laissez-faire attitude of Sweden and Belarus – An unexpected recovery – Liberty University – Field hospital in Manhattan – Evening statistics – Travel plans unravel

Today’s statistics as of 7:00 AM — # of cases worldwide: 732,153; # of deaths worldwide: 34,686; # of cases U.S.: 143,055; # of deaths U.S.: 2,513.  Almost half of the American cases are in New York (both city and state).  In China the number of cases still active is actually under 3000 now, so that is one bright spot.  South Korea, similarly, has flattered its curve, to use a phrase that had been making the rounds for the past several weeks.  There are hopes that both Italy and Spain have now reached the peak, but that is far from certain.

Canada has a website about the virus that is a model of clarity and even-handedness.  Essentially its message is:  not all Canadians will contract the disease; of those who do, a relatively small number will die; but it is essential to contain the epidemic as much as possible to minimize the strain on the national health care system, hence the guidelines on social distancing. 

Rodney Howard-Browne has conducted a service in a Tampa church yesterday, with 2000 people packed inside like sardines.  Why he hasn’t been arrested is something of a mystery.  Other states have not hesitated to indict people who violated their injunctions on this matter for organizing gatherings on a much less extensive scale than this one.

In fairness the majority of the church priests and pastors are behaving more sensibly, many of them relying on virtual services rather than telling their congregations to be physically present.

Trump is showing a measure of prudence at last; instead of expecting everything to be back to normal by Easter he is extending social distance guidelines to April 30th.  This, though slight and late and ungracious, is better than nothing.  He expects, however, everything to be normal by June.

One father has actually banned his son from entering the family home.  Against his advice the son spent the spring break in San Padre Island, a popular partying place, and sent the family photos of him sitting with friends on the porch and listening to music.  His return was somewhat less festive; his flight was repeatedly rerouted, lasting about twice as long as he had anticipated, and when he got to the house he found his car full of groceries and a note explaining that he was not welcome until the risk of contagion had passed.  He took refuge in his off-campus apartment close to his college (which has closed); but as his lease expires in June, it is uncertain where he will be able to reside afterwards. 

Sweden is adopting a more laissez-faire approach than other countries.  Restaurants remain open, public transportation is running normally, schools remain open.  It has been criticized by experts in other countries, but the government maintains that there is no need for extreme measures now.  To be sure, it is doing relatively well – 3,700 cases and 110 deaths – and the Swedes are being fairly conscientious about keeping clean.  Still, they are meeting in large groups from time to time, and it remains to be seen whether more stringent measures will be needed.  In Belarus caution has been flung to the winds; soccer games are going on as usual, and their president has urged everyone to drink vodka and take saunas to stay in good health.   The World Health Organization begs to disagree with this recommendation.

Several other entertainers have come with the virus, including Placido Domingo, one of the greatest of tenors.  He is 79, so his chances of recovery are not good.  However, age alone does not necessarily mean a fatality.  In Italy a man who was born and spent his first years during the Spanish flu epidemic has proven his mettle again by contracting the virus and recovering.  He is 101 years old.

Other than that, the news in Italy is still grim; the number of cases passed 100,000 today and the mortality rate is well over 10%.

Liberty University, in Lynchburg, VA, re-opened last week and is already paying the price for ignoring the clearest of warnings.  At least a dozen students have fallen ill with symptoms consistent with the virus and several hundred have already fled the campus while they were still able to leave.  Its president, Jerry Falwell, has suddenly changed his tune and has professed to feel anxious about the ones who still remain.  State and local officials were furious that Falwell so brazenly defied their injunctions to keep his university closed; what I don’t understand is why the parents are not resentful as well, or why they allowed their sons and daughters to return after spring break in the first place.  They must be absolute sheep!

In New York Central Park has been turned into a field hospital in order to alleviate the shortage of beds in the regular hospitals.  New York and its environs remain the greatest sufferers so far, accounting  for at least 40% of the cases and of the deaths. My aunt says that the city is almost silent and has been so for days.

Today’s statistics as of 6:00 PM — # of cases worldwide: 775,306; # of deaths worldwide: 37,073; # of cases U.S.: 159,184; # of deaths U.S.: 2,945.   In China the number of cases still active continues to decline, albeit slowly.  South Korea, once one of the forerunners in the total number of cases, is now 13th on the list, but there are still some increases. 

My April visit to the Midwest has been canceled; under the circumstances, it’s too risky.  In any case, my friends tell me that everything in Chicago is pretty much shut down, making it not very worthwhile for a casual tourist.  Besides, it appears that road trips are not feasible at this point.  Virginia, Maryland, and DC have all issued a stay-at-home order.  In the case of Virginia this order extends to June 10th.  It is somewhat less restrictive than Maryland’s order, in that it doesn’t prohibit people from crossing state borders.

March 29, 2020

Afternoon statistics – A fool-proof method for ensuring social distancing – Restrictions in Moscow – Reductions in airline travel – Our failed judicial system – Ratings for President Trump’s briefings – Joe Diffie – Countries with low incidence of COVID-19

As of 4:00 PM the statistics are — # of cases worldwide:  710,918; # of deaths worldwide: 33,551; # of cases U.S.: 135,499; # of deaths U.S.: 2,381.   Dr. Fauci estimates that by the time the virus has run its course there will be between 1 and 2 million cases, and between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths here.  The number of active cases in China is now a little over 3200 but there have been some new cases; the virus is subsiding there, but it is premature to declare victory just yet.  In the U.S. and Europe it continues to skyrocket.  There is some slight relief in Italy; the number of deaths per day has begun to decline. 

JB, a fellow-member of Wanderbirds, has passed on an excellent tip for persuading people to maintain their distance:  use a hiking pole.  Today I was on the Bull Run/Occoquan Trail and I encountered several little groups that were sprawled out on the full width of the trail, but when I approached them I lifted my pole in a bold, swinging arc every time it left the ground and that maneuver caught their immediate attention; in most cases, they hastened to form a single file on one side of the trail.  I didn’t have say a word to persuade them. 

In Moscow no one is permitted to go outside for exercise except pet owners, and even they can go no further than 100 meters from their homes.  How on earth can they enforce anything like that!  They can’t very well have a patrol car on every street 24 hours of the day.  However, the Russians are probably more docile than we are.

TSA screenings for airplane travel are down to under 200,000 for the second day in a row; normally the count per day is between 2 and 2½  million. 

Shawn Marshall Myers, a registered sex offender, has been arrested for holding a bonfire with 60 people in attendance, in defiance of the Governor’s order against gatherings of 10 people.  All very well, but this scoundrel is not only a sex offender; he murdered a 23-year old man in 2004 during a robbery and was indicted for first-degree murder in 2011 – a delay of seven years after the event!   He made a plea bargain and received a 15-year suspended sentence – in other words, he was not penalized at all for his brutal crime.  Truly, our judicial system is broken.

Mario Rubio has slammed the media for what he calls “grotesque” coverage of the coronavirus and has accused them of displaying “glee and delight in reporting that the U. S. has more coronavirus than China.”  His reasoning – if it may be dignified by such a name – is that journalists are too trusting of China’s self-reported data.  It may be that the number of deaths in China is greater than they claim, but they have lifted the restrictions on Wuhan, the original epicenter of the virus, and they would hardly have done so without cause.  Needless to say, the journalists have reacted swiftly, hotly denying that anyone could feel “glee and delight” at the prospect of a pandemic that threatens to affect millions of people in the country.  Certainly they feel outrage towards our President in his manner of handling it – as well they might.  Today he boasted about the attention his briefings are getting.  “And wretches hang that jurymen may dine” – and similarly, patients die that Trump’s ratings can spike.

Joe Diffie, a country music star, contracted the illness a week ago on Sunday, made an announcement of his illness on Friday, and died today – sometimes the virus can do its damage with extraordinary rapidity.  He was 61, four years younger than me. John Prine, another country star, has been diagnosed with the virus; since he is over 70 and has previously had lung cancer, the prognosis is not good.  His wife Flora contracted the disease earlier and immediately put herself into self-quarantine; even so, it is possible that she passed the disease on to her husband. 

The chief factors in mortality appear to be age and underlying conditions.  While it is true that the majority of deaths occurred among seniors, about 2% of the deaths occurred among cases with no underlying ailments.  Asthma or prior bouts of pneumonia also can increase the risk.  So can smoking.

Taiwan, Vietnam, Burma, and Laos – all four much closer to the original epicenter than the U. S. or any European country – have had low incidence of the disease.  Vietnam reacted early, even to the extent of being over-cautious, but its prudence has paid off.  With a population of 96 million – far more than Italy or France or Spain – it has only 194 cases to date and no deaths.  Although Germany has a large number of cases, its mortality rate is low, probably on account of the strength of its health care system; there are 13 nurses for every 1000 people. 

March 28, 2020

Morning statistics – Exponential increases – Mexico guarding its borders – Evening statistics

As of 9:00 AM the statistics are — # of cases worldwide:  615,519; # of deaths worldwide: 28,717; # of cases U.S.: 104,860; # of deaths U.S.: 1,711.  In the course of a day and a half the number of cases and the number of deaths has gone up by a third.  In the U.S. the increase for the number of cases is over a half and the increase of deaths is nearly two-thirds.

On March 3rd the number of cases in France was 204.  I remember that figure because that was the day that MC’s plans for travel to France were first discussed and indeed the first time I learned that the virus might prove to be a serious threat.  I looked at a website that had been set up to track the number of cases for each country.  Since France has a population of nearly 67 million, I was inclined to think lightly of the matter and to believe that the gloomy predictions of some of the experts were a bit overblown.

That was a bare 3½ weeks ago.  Since that time, the number of cases in France has increased to 33,437 and has caused nearly 2,000 deaths.  The percentage of the affected population is 0.05% — not a huge fraction at present, but certainly significant.  Even now, with the incidence spike in our country, the percentage is 0.03%.  Switzerland, of all places, has the highest incidence, standing at 0.15%.  (The mortality rate, to be sure, is significantly lower.) 

One of the many ironies that has come about as a result of the pandemic:  Mexico is now guarding its border to prevent Americans crossing over.  It has only 717 cases so far and doesn’t want to see the number increase as a result of infected persons coming in.  Warmer countries have generally been doing somewhat better than colder ones; but still, this particular instance is a bit puzzling.  Texas, whose climate is not greatly different, has more than 2000 cases and Louisiana threatens to be one of the areas of greatest risk. 

As of 9:30 PM the statistics are — # of cases worldwide:  662,073; # of deaths worldwide: 30,780; # of cases U.S.: 122,666; # of deaths U.S.: 2,147.   Very high increases – however, the number of active cases in China is 3600 and is continually decreasing, so it looks like the virus has finished raging there.  There is some leveling off in South Korea as well.  The death rates in Italy, Spain, Iran, and to a lesser extent in France are very high; over 10% in Italy.  Even in the U.K. it is over 5%.  The rate is 1.7% in the U.S. – is this because our health care is better or just that we’re in the early stages and that the number of fatalities will increase proportionately when several who still have the disease ultimately succumb?  Time will tell.