Journal of the Plague Year, COVID-19 Version

The fantasies of George Santos – Kevin McCarthy no closer to his goal than before – Evening statistics

Our legislative branch of the government has not always distinguished itself for its usefulness, but lately it is providing an unceasing source of entertainment.

The protagonist of Lettice and Lovage, a play by Peter Shaffer, is a guide who is bored to distraction by the tedious monologue about the old house to which she is assigned that she is forced to recite to yawning, inattentive tourists.  One day, however, she decides to jettison the historic facts altogether, re-invent the past, and supply inquiring visitors with increasingly bizarre and salacious stories about “Fustian House,” which naturally causes them to flock in droves to her tours and listen to her improvisations with mingled fascination and delight.

George Santos, the recently-elected House member from New York, has done precisely the same thing.  Among his claims are: 1) that his maternal grandparents were Ukrainian Jews who fled to Belgium and then to Brazil to escape the Holocaust during World War II (he is Catholic and his family had lived in Brazil for three generations before his parents settled in the U.S.); 2) that his mother was “the first female executive at a major financial institution” and that she worked in the South Tower of the World Trade Center, dying a few years after the September 11 attacks (she was a domestic worker who spoke no English and earned a living by selling food and cleaning houses); 3) that he was born and raised in abject poverty (which is in direct conflict with Claim #2, but – oh, never mind); 4) that he attended the prestigious Horace Mann preparatory school before withdrawing on account of financial hardship, held a bachelor’s degree in finance and economics from Baruch College, and obtained an MBA from New York University (none of the schools has any record of his attendance, and the period that he said he was at Baruch overlaps with the time he is known to have lived in Brazil); 5) that he worked as a journalist at a major news organization but that his name was omitted from the organization’s website (I wonder why); 6) that he and his family owned 13 rental properties in New York (if so, he didn’t list them on his campaign’s financial disclosure forms and there is nothing in the public records to support this assertion – and, also, what the hell happened to that “abject poverty” claim he made earlier?); 7) that he worked for the eminent firms of Citigroup and Goldman Sachs (neither company has any record of him); 8) that while employed at Goldman he attended the SALT private equity conference seven years earlier where, on a panel, he criticized his employer for investing in renewable energy, calling it a taxpayer-subsidized scam (Anthony Scaramucci, who runs the conference, said there is no record of Santos having sat on a single panel or even having attended any SALT conference); 9) that  . . . but why continue?  Suffice it to say that he answers to the description that Mary McCarthy once gave of Lillian Hellman:  every word he says Is a lie, including ‘and’ and ‘the’. He has the distinction of being one of the two gay Representatives for New York, but he may even be lying about his sexual orientation as well.  When running for office he described himself as “openly gay” and hinted that he had been discriminated against on that account.  However, he was once married to a woman named Uadla Santos Vieira in 2012, even though the pair divorced seven years later.  He never mentioned this marriage during his campaign or indeed at any other time; and it did not become publicly known until the Daily Beast disclosed it.  Santos thus presents the unique case of a self-declared homosexual being “outed” as someone who is actually straight, or at the very least bi-sexual.  In 2014 he lived with one Pedro Vilarva, but this relationship also foundered, with Vilarva moving out a few months afterwards, allegedly being fed up with Santos’s constant stream of prevarications.  But just as in the case of Shaffer’s Lettice, Santos’s lies have proved to be more exciting than the actual biographical facts, and New Yorkers have swallowed them as eagerly as the fictional tourists of Fustian House.  I wish them joy of their new Representative.

“About to go to the House floor,” California Representative-elect Ted Lieu tweeted earlier this week, alongside a photo of him holding a bag of popcorn.  The show that he is referring to, of course, is that of the debacle of Kevin McCarthy’s attempt to become House Speaker, which has now failed for the tenth consecutive time.  This increasingly embarrassing spectacle has become the longest speaker contest in 164 years.  The Democrats, needless to say, are watching on with glee.  The party’s leadership has requested them to remain in Washington until someone is elected, for if any of them depart the number of votes that McCarthy is required to obtain for the position will be lowered, and they do not want to do anything that will pave the way to his goal.  “At the end of the day, this is a Republican mess,” said Ro Khanna, another Representative-elect. “This is a failure of them to govern. This is their problem to fix.”

The mild weather lasted through the end of today, but colder and more seasonal temperatures are coming.  I shall miss out on them on a while, however, for I will be spending a few days in New Orleans, where temperatures will be in the 60s – that is to say, comparable to temperatures of April and May here.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 667,039,556; # of deaths worldwide: 6,705,928; # of cases U.S.:  103,043,225; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,120,801.

An unexpectedly quiet New Years Eve – Hikes during the first days of the year – Mental benefits of hiking – Another instance of trop de zèle – Evening statistics

COVID is undeniably still with us.  On New Years Eve I dined with KT at a restaurant in Cleveland Park.  I was expecting a good deal of traffic along the streets and a noisy crowd indoors.  Instead, hardly any cars passed by during the 1-mile walk from the station to the restaurant, and the restaurant itself, though not empty by any means, was not filled to capacity and we were able to eat in quiet.  Few of the houses showed signs of party-going and the Metro had few passengers, even though fares were waived for all Metro travel after 8:00.  It was quite startling to see the city so subdued on what is ordinarily a holiday of elaborate celebration.

Yesterday a group of us hiked together in Riverbend.  Here there was no shortage of people.  The weather was unusually warm for the time of year, and bright and clear in addition; so many were taking advantage of the day to enjoy the views of the Potomac along the Potomac Heritage Trail.  Afterwards we converged at the house of DC and JM; and here, at least, celebratory food and wine flowed in abundance.

And today I went with the Wanderbirds to Difficult Run, where we did a loop through the Great Falls and Riverbend parks.  The falls were a splendid sight, the waters having swelled after the amount of rain received over the past several days. 

It appears that, independently of the physical benefits one obtains from hiking on trails such as these, there are mental benefits as well.  According to some studies, the Japanese practice of Shinrin-yoku, or “forest bathing,” improves one’s outlook on life, enhances attention span and memory retention, and reduces stress levels.  The root cause may, after all, be a straightforward one:  quite simply, exercising out of doors is much more enjoyable than exercising in a gym.

Bernie Sanders, who has pushed the Democratic Party to expand access for health care, claimed in a CNN interview that 85 million Americans are without any kind of health insurance.  His zeal for promoting a higher standard of medical care is understandable, but inflated claims such as these are more likely to undermine his cause rather than promote it.  In actual fact, the number is closer to 27.4 million – not an insignificant amount, certainly, but about 8.7% of the population as opposed to well over 25%.  Then again, when has any American politician been required to adhere to the facts?

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 665,546,183; # of deaths worldwide: 6,699,015; # of cases U.S.:  102,686,752; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,118,478.

This year compared to the last one – First Day hikes – Slight disappointment from the hiking log – The diminishing COVID mortality rate

The old year wanes, and while it might not have been the best of all possible years, it certainly was better than its predecessor.  Flawed though Biden’s administration undeniably has been, it was a welcome change from the perpetual Sturm und Drang that characterized our 45^th president’s relationships with his staff and with his compatriots in general; and while COVID remains a threat and a disruption, it is on a much more limited scale than that of 2021.  It appears, moreover, that Trump’s influence is diminishing at long last, after the greatly anticipated “red wave” proved illusory and various political leaders belatedly realized that his continued association with the Republican Party played a significant role in this result. 

Hiking has seen something of an upsurge during the pandemic.  Plans are being made in every state for making “First Day Hikes” (free, guided hikes on January 1^st) available at various locations.  I myself will be taking part in a hike tomorrow, albeit not a guided one:  merely a visit to Riverbend Park with various friends.  Today also I went with the Wanderbirds to Jug Bay for a gentle, fairly flat hike of 8 miles.  I was the sweep on this occasion and that was perhaps just as well:  one of the hikers in the group had issues with going down a couple of the steeper descents, so I aided her by having her to walk behind me with her hands placed on my shoulders to give her support. 

Alas, I fell just short of 2000 miles this year on the trails.  I probably would have done more had it not been for the two storms in December, when hiking was not practicable during the days of unrelenting rain. Still I did complete 1958 miles for the year, as well as nearly 280,000 feet of cumulative elevation gain, and that at any rate is a respectable amount.

Normally the week between Christmas and New Year’s is fairly quiet, but this time it has been unexpectedly busy for me, with a birthday party for a friend in downtown DC this past Thursday and another party for this evening.  In an effort to encourage those who celebrate the occasions at functions where the bottle is passed around fairly frequently not to use the roads afterwards, Washington DC is offering free Metro rides for people traveling after 8:00 PM.  I will be in position to test how many take advantage of this arrangement, for I myself will be going downtown tonight, and – my sense of self-preservation being tolerably strong – I have no intention of driving the city streets during New Year’s Eve.

More than 100 million people in the U.S. have tested positive for COVID-19 and more than 1 million have died from it.  But at this point nearly 229 million have been vaccinated, and the mortality rate has gone down precipitously in consequence.  The cumulative mortality rate is currently about 1.1% in the U.S.  However, over the past month the ratio of deaths to new cases is about 0.6%.  In other words, the mortality rate is approaching containable levels, possibly to the extent of the state of emergency being rescinded by the CDC sometime after the winter season ends.  COVID’s mortality rate still remains about three times as great as the influenza mortality rate, but that is a great improvement over what we endured in 2021.

And so, as we approach 2023, all is not quite rose color; but hopes are running high.

Today’s statistics as of 3:30 PM – # of cases worldwide:  664,738,010; # of deaths worldwide: 6,696,792; # of cases U.S.:  102,510,478; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,117,956.

The Arlington Loop – COVID in China – Obesity in American children – Yet another Russian defenestration – Evening statistics

I went with the Vigorous Hikers along the Arlington Loop today.  There were only six of us this year, which is a pity, for conditions could not have been better:  bright and clear, just as yesterday was, but considerably warmer.  When we passed along the Potomac the sunny skies and clarity of the water caused the river to act like a mirror and reflect the facades of the Lincoln Memorial, the Washington Monument, and other buildings close to the river bank.

During lunch DG asked me what I thought was causing the great upsurge of COVID cases in China, and I was forced to admit that I was puzzled.  Possibly the rigid lockdown that prevailed for months kept people in isolation to such an extent that they now provide a perfect conductor for the virus now they have been allowed to co-mingle again.  It is also possible that their vaccine is less effective than ours, and it is certain that their vaccination rate is lower.  But no one can advance any explanation with confidence.  Such data that the Chinese medical authorities are permitted to release are simply too unreliable to form a firm basis for any hypotheses.  This issue is not confined to China only.  Now that various restrictions have been lifted, Chinese are resuming travel plans as eagerly as we ourselves did earlier this year.  Several countries, including the U.S., are contemplating enacting a regulation that travelers from China provide proof of a negative COVID test result before they are allowed to enter their destination.

One of the numerous undesirable side effects of the COVID virus is the rise in obesity among children aged 2 to 19.  Many were confined indoors for substantial periods, encouraging a lifestyle that had already become overly sedentary.  One study found that pre-pandemic average screen time was 4 hours per day, but during the pandemic it had increased to 8 hours per day. The obesity rate in this age group has grown from 19.3% in 2019 to 22.4% in 2022.  RK, my friend who teaches in a private school, tells me that the figure of the child teased and bullied by his schoolmates for being overweight, so familiar to those in my generation who attended schools, barely exists now:  so many children in any given class are overweight as to eliminate the possibility of any particular child being singled out for being so.

Yet another Putin critic has died from falling out of a window – in Rayagada, India, of all places.  The main in question was visiting the Odisha district at the time to celebrate his 65^th birthday.  He was Pavel Antov, chair of the committee on agrarian policy, nature management, and ecology of the Legislative Assembly of the Vladimir Region and he seems to have posted a Whatsapp message critical of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – I say “seems,” because fairly quickly after it was posted it was deleted, probably by hands other than his own.  Clearly, Putin’s agents are capable of casting an extremely wide net and anyone who criticizes Putin should confine himself to ground floors only. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  662,525,701; # of deaths worldwide: 6,688,344; # of cases U.S.:  102,303,889; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,116,347.

Clear skies after the storm – Hiking in Rock Creek Park – Long COVID causes tantalizingly elusive – Conflicting dietary advice – Evening statistics

We may not have had a white Christmas this year, but we certainly had a very cold one.  Temperatures moderated today, however, and in addition the sky possessed the striking clarity that here generally follows after a prolonged rainstorm.  I once speculated that our area is probably more fortunate in this respect during winter than much of northern Europe, and this theory gained reinforcement when I ate together with various others at a restaurant after hiking in Rock Creek Park.  One grew up in England, one had lived in France for a number of years, and another had spent a similar amount of time in the Netherlands; and they all attested that the weather during the winters there is uniformly gray and dreary.  Our periods of brilliant winter days must come as a revelation to foreign visitors, at least to those from some regions.

We are fortunate in other respects.  How could an outsider have guessed that a city like Washington DC is able to provide trails for a 12½-mile hike during which one’s feet hardly ever touches pavement?  Directly after one turns from Connecticut Avenue onto the Melvin Hazen Trail one is plunged into a scene of forested hills sloping down precipitously to a winding stream that drains into Rock Creek, and after a short distance no buildings can be seen from the bottom of the gorge.  I say 12½ miles because that is the distance we covered today, but it could have been extended easily enough.  The numerous ascents, though relatively brief, cumulated to a total of 2000 feet.  I had expected that, after the incessant rain on Thursday that went on until well into the following morning, that both roads and trails would be covered with ice; but it was not so.  The combination of untrammeled sunlight and continually blowing wind that immediately followed the storm dispersed most of the puddles and the number of icy patches on the trails was surprisingly small.  We could see the effects of the storm, however; there were numerous fallen trees whose trunks and branches sometimes stretched over the trail, which the hike leader said had not been present when they scouted the hike some days earlier.

Long COVID continues to evade explanation.  Scientists are unable to explain why some people wind up with symptoms that continue for months and why a small portion experience symptoms that are more serious and longer-lasting.   At this point some conclusions can be drawn from the data.  Women tend to be more prone to long COVID than men, possibly because their immune systems are stronger and thus react more violently to the virus.  In some cases inflammation resulting from the COVID virus can activate herpes viruses, such as Epstein-Barr, which in turn may (for this finding is tentative) lead to chronic fatigue.  Obesity is almost certainly a factor.  Most of the people afflicted with long COVID should eventually recover, according to Lawrence Purpura, an infectious disease expert at Columbia University.  But an unfortunate minority will remain afflicted with heart and lung problems more or less indefinitely, and what causes persons infected with COVID to develop such predilections remains unknown.

“Say goodbye to rubbery cheese and watery milk! A review of 65 studies in the Journal of Psychiatry & Neuroscience suggests enjoying one or two servings of full-fat dairy daily (regular or lactose-free) cuts the risk of chronic stress in half. Full-fat dairy’s transpalmitoleic acid prevents anxiety-triggering blood sugar lows.”  So say Brenda Kearns and Alexandria Brooks in an article for Woman’s World, and I would love to know how reliable their information source might be.  Not that I’m decrying their conclusions; I am, as the most casual reader of this journal could discern, a tyrophile.  However, in an earlier entry (from October, 2021, to be exact) I noted a recommendation from the Mayo Clinic for seniors over 65 to avoid soft cheeses such as Brie and Camembert, and it’s a bit of a surprise now to be told the exact opposite.  One is reminded of the amazed comment from one of the nutrition experts in Woody Allen’s “Sleeper,” a farcical account of a man who is revived out of cryostatis 200 years into the future, when she learns that at one period in history people ate alfalfa sprouts to safeguard their health:  “But didn’t they have any deep fat? thick-cut steaks? hot fudge sundaes?”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 662,042,676; # of deaths worldwide: 6,686,858; # of cases U.S.:  102,247,575; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,116,095.  It must be said that the spikes in COVID infections and deaths, though troubling, are considerably lower than those of 2020 and 2021 at the same time of the year.  Perhaps, after all, the CDC will withdraw COVID’s state of emergency status after the end of winter.

Lack of opportunity to hike for the past two weeks – The pre-Christmas storm – Lower life expectancy in the U.S. – COVID in China – Fox News and Dominion Voting Systems – The conclusions of the Jan. 6 investigating committee – The upcoming committee report from Georgia – Evening statistics

I have said little of hiking in the past few entries, due to the uncooperative nature of the weather.   I went with the Vigorous Hikers to Sky Meadows on the 6^th and I led a hike for them along the McLean Loop on the 13^th.  Both of these were enjoyable.  Conditions for the McLean Loop were especially propitious this time:  the preceding period of dry and relatively warm days created low water levels for the numerous streams that this hike route crosses.  On the 10^th I accompanied the Capital Hiking Club down to the American Chestnut Land Trust, where I had the gratification of seeing several hikers pleased and impressed by a first visit on their part to this area.  But during the latter part of the month such walking that I have done has been urban.  Originally I had planned, as part of my visit to New York, to spend a night in New Jersey and hike a portion of the Appalachian Trail.  But it rained incessantly on the 15^th, the day before I was to arrive in New York; and I had no wish to drive several hours in a rainstorm, or to hike afterwards in an unrelenting downpour.  I returned from New York on the 20^th, and on the 22^nd we had yet another day of continual rain, lasting well into the following morning.  This rainfall was followed by a drop in temperature that went down to the single digits during Friday night and got up only to the teens today.  It actually turned out to be a beautiful day in other respects, but the frigid weather discouraged hikers from signing up for either the CHC or the Wanderbirds hikes that weekend.  Both were therefore canceled. 

At that, our region has been lucky; the storm that caused merely a day of rain here resulted in a considerable amount of snow and sub-zero temperatures in many other parts of the country.  More than a million homes and businesses are without power.  Some parts of New York, close to Lake Erie, may receive as much as three additional feet of snow by nightfall.  More than 200 million people, or around 60% of the U.S. population, are currently under some form of weather warning or advisory.  Air travel has been in a state of confusion.  Nearly 6,000 flights within, into, or out of the United States were canceled and an additional 11,500 were delayed yesterday

The life expectancy of Americans has reached a 25-year low.  Life expectancy for those born in 2019 was 78.8 years.  Life expectancy for people born in the U.S. during 2021 was 76.4 years, the lowest on record since 1996: a drop of 2.4 years in all. The main causes, according to the CDC, are COVID and of the amount of deaths due to substance abuse.  Although COVID has become more controllable, it still remains the third leading cause of death (out-ranked only by heart disease and cancer).  But even though the mortality rate of COVID will continue to decline as both vaccines and therapeutic treatment becomes more sophisticated, substance abuse shows no signs of alleviation.  A study by Johns Hopkins indicated that over 20 million Americans over 12 years of age have substance abuse disorders – about 1 in every 13.  It is not the use of illicit drugs that is the primary factor; the usage rate has remained fairly constant over the years.  But prescription drugs are readily available, and the number of people who get addicted on them is steadily increasing.  Nearly 107,000 Americans died of a drug overdose in 2021.  San Francisco alone saw a 45% increase in drug overdose deaths in a mere two years.

The pretense that COVID is responsible for only a handful of deaths in China is beginning to wear a little thin.  Tesla has suspended production in its busiest facility in Shanghai due to the number of workers calling in sick.  Many other factories have followed suit.  Taiwan is contemplating a restriction on bulk buying of pain relief medications because of the number of people who are buying them to send to their relatives on the mainland.  Reporters from independent organizations such as the Associated Press have seen hospital intensive care units overwhelmed by patients and ambulances being turned away.  Sun Yang, a deputy director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, estimated that some 250 million people in the country have caught COVID-19 in the past three weeks.  Even with a 0.1% mortality rate, such a figure would translate into at least 250,000 deaths.  There are some reports that crematoria are burning 20-to-30 bodies daily and that many have a long waiting list in addition.  Sharply increased numbers of absences from work on account of illness, shortages of fever-reducing medicine, hospitals with no available ICUs, and staff working overtime at crematoria all suggest – to use the mildest term – that the deaths from the virus are widespread. 

There are new developments in the case Dominion Voting Systems has filed against Fox News.  Sean Hannity, one of Trump’s staunchest sycophants minions defenders, said under oath that he never believed the lie that Trump was cheated of victory in the 2020 presidential election.  So did Meade Cooper, Fox News’ executive vice president.  Fox News did have a few partisans of common-sense during Fox News’ campaign to prop up the lie about the “stolen” election, including, rather surprisingly, Fox News CEO Suzanne Scott, who warned her colleagues that “we can’t give the crazies an inch.”  But she was overruled, and Hannity along with many others amplified and embraced Trump’s claims, presenting them to millions of viewers, and slandering Dominion Voting Systems, which collected the ballots, in the process.  The lawsuit will drag out for several months to come.  To win in court, Dominion must demonstrate that Fox stars and decision-makers knew these claims of election fraud were lies, but let them be broadcast anyway, or were negligent in disregarding warning signs.  But these admissions from Hannity and Cooper certainly provide a promising beginning.

And the committee for investing the events of January 6, 2021, has declared that their central cause was “one man” and that Trump carried out “a multipart plan to overturn the 2020 presidential election,”  recommending that Congress consider whether to bar Trump and his allies from holding office in the future under the 14th Amendment’s ban on insurrectionists.  But will the Department of Justice take this tolerably broad hint and indict Trump some two years after the insurrection?  There are undoubtedly some practical considerations that hinder such an undertaking.  In the words of Amy Sorkin of The New York Times:  “Presidents have been impeached, but none has ever been asked, after leaving office, to turn himself in for arraignment, with the prospect of arrest if he failed to comply. No judge has had to consider the question of cash bail for a billionaire who once lived in the White House, or asked the former head of state to turn over his passport. The voir dire of potential jurors would be an unprecedented spectacle; so would the mug shot.”  There is a further complication of time constraints.  If Trump were indicted, he would undoubtedly create delays by raising objections and appeals, all of which take time to resolve; and in the meantime the Republican primary is quickly approaching.  And even if he were indicted and convicted before the upcoming Presidential election in 2024, the next President has the option of pardoning him.

There is one hope:  presidential elections and pardons do not affect state trials.  The special grand jury investigation in Georgia has begun to write up its final report.  If it gives a criminal referral to Donald Trump, State Attorney General Fani Willis could formally charge him.  And if the case comes to trial and the verdict goes against Trump, then there is the possibility that he will get time in jail, perhaps as much as twenty years.  This outcome is greatly to be desired, for no other type of penalty will create as much as a dent in that iron-shelled juggernaut that is Donald Trump.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 661,440,225; # of deaths worldwide: 6,685,239; # of cases U.S.:  102,211,153; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,115,933. 

Visit to relatives in New York – Inter-state traveling then and now – Reflections on American education – Incredibly (and I mean that in a literal sense) low COVID rates in China – The investigating committee winds up at last – The enigma of Mike Pence – Oppression of women under the Taliban – Fraudulent pseudo-abortion clinics – Evening statistics

I have just returned from a visit to my aunt in Manhattan; and I was struck, as I could hardly fail to be, by the contrast between arranging this visit and arranging the one two years previously.

Two years ago travel from one state to another was just becoming possible again, following an interdict that lasted for months in order to prevent the COVID virus from spreading.  When I wished to visit my aunt for her 90^th birthday in the summer of 2020, any plans I made to that end had to be flung away and it was not until several months afterwards that I was able to revive them.  Now, of course, there were no obstacles whatever.  National and indeed international travel is completely unrestricted, and the bans placed on traveling from one state to another at this point seem like a bad dream.

Nonetheless COVID still remains with us, and it had a significant impact on the circumstances of my visit.  Originally I had planned to drive all the way to Riverdale to stay with my cousin there.  A car is much less of a liability in the Bronx than in Manhattan, and it would have been easy to park in the neighborhood where he lives.  But this arrangement had to be jettisoned when my cousin’s son came down with COVID and went to his parents’ apartment to recuperate.  So I stayed with my aunt instead and, since she lives in Manhattan, I drove only as far as Princeton Junction and took the train from there to Penn Station.  COVID, to be sure, is less of a threat now than it was two years ago, thanks to the prevalence of the vaccines; the mortality rate is down and detrimental long-term effects are less frequent.  But it remains a plague; even now a patient is more than ten times as likely to succumb to COVID than an influenza patient is to the latter disease.   In the end my young relative left his parents’ residence after staying for a few days, even though he was still testing positive.  But he felt no ill effects at that point and was anxious to return to his own place. 

In general I would say that the residents of New York are more cautious about the disease than the residents of DC.  I used the public transit on a few occasions, and my estimate is that about a quarter of the passengers were wearing facemasks, whereas in DC very few now bother to don one.  In stores, also, a greater number of cashiers and customers were wearing masks – not a majority by any means, but a significantly higher proportion than what I have observed in Washington.

There were several other relatives whom I encountered during this visit.  One of these is the son of my cousin who lives in Chile.  He is staying with my aunt while completing some coursework in New York, but he plans to return eventually to Chile as his permanent homeland.  We were discussing numerous topics last night and among them was the quality of American education.  By his own estimate my young cousin’s mathematical skills are mediocre at best and he openly admits that he has difficulty in balancing a checkbook.  Nonetheless, when taking a remedial mathematics course, he found that the majority of his classmates were woefully ignorant about the subject, unable to do as simple an operation as rounding numbers up or down.  He actually wound up performing the role of an informal assistant to the teacher, to the surprise of both of them.  “The American educational system is failing its students,” was his verdict, and it is difficult to disagree with him.

The mortality rate of COVID appears to be much, much lower in China than it is here.  It seems that only five COVID-related deaths in the entire country occurred today and two yesterday, all of which were in Beijing, meaning that somehow every one of the remaining provinces has miraculously escaped.  We know this must be true, because the Chinese health authorities have said so themselves.  This result is all the more surprising when one takes into account the low vaccination rate of the elderly, with only 42% of those over 80 having received boosters.  For some unexplained reason, though, Chinese funeral homes have been unusually busy lately.  One such service in Beijing’s Shunyi district clandestinely contacted The Washington Post to say that all eight cremators are operating around-the-clock, cadaver freezer boxes are full, and there is a five-to-six-day waiting list.

Yesterday the House January 6 Committee concluded its investigation at last.  It unanimously voted to recommend that Donald Trump be criminally prosecuted, for charges including conspiracy to defraud the United States, obstructing an act of Congress, and, of course, insurrection. 

It’s a step in the right direction, but now it remains for the Department of Justice to take action.  There are certain difficulties in the way.  It could be plausibly argued, for instance, that Trump’s speeches to the rioters never explicitly called for violence and that his instructions for the crowd to “fight” (a word he used about 20-to-25 times) were metaphorical.  If such were the case, prosecution of him would amount to prosecution of freedom of speech. 

But his behavior both before and since provides ample evidence that he was advocating sedition.  One example is his hijacking of thousands of classified documents to his residence at Mar-a-Lago.  As recently as a couple of weeks ago he openly called for defying the Constitution in order to overturn the 2020 election. 

And his support for the rioters went beyond mere words.  When told that magnetometers were keeping members of the crowd away from the stage, Trump ordered them to be removed.  Happily, this order was not obeyed; if it had been, the crowd would have been more heavily armed and physically closer to the members of Congress under siege.  When returning to the White House, Trump ordered that he be driven to the Capitol so he could accompany the crowd, an order that the Secret Service refused to carry out.  For much of the first hour after his return to the White House, Trump kept insisting on being taken to the Capitol. And not only did Trump not intervene for several hours once the violence began, he tweeted, knowing full well that the mob was calling for the hanging of the vice president, that “Mike Pence didn’t have the courage to do what should have been done to protect our Country and our Constitution.”

Speaking of Mike Pence, this gentleman has announced that he does not believe that the Department of Justice should arraign Trump.  The rioters had repeatedly called out for Pence’s blood and Trump apparently was only too ready to betray him to them; and yet this besotted man is still attempting to deflect the much-deferred justice awaiting the megalomaniac who would have connived at his murder.  One cannot write Pence off merely as a coward.  During the time of the riot itself he displayed remarkable courage.  He turned down the offers of the Secret Service personnel to escort him to safety in order to ensure that the process of ratifying the election could be completed.  Indeed, the outcome of the election would have been greatly delayed and possibly would have led to numerous other altercations if it had not been for the firmness and rectitude he showed on that occasion.  Pence’s consistent refusal to call Trump to account for his actions reflects weakness of a different nature than simple cowardice, one whose motivation is well beyond my powers of comprehension.  But it is weakness nonetheless.

Women are now prohibited from seeking college education in Afghanistan.  The Taliban initially promised to institute a more moderate rule respecting rights for women’s and minorities, and they then proceeded to do what all religious zealots do:  they lied through their teeth.  Girls are now banned from middle school and high school, while adult women are restricted from most employment and ordered to wear head-to-toe clothing in public. Women are also banned from parks and gyms.  “Is being a girl a crime? If that’s the case, I wish I wasn’t a girl,” one student said mournfully.

Since our home-grown zealots do not possess quite the level of power assumed by the Taliban – not for lack of trying, it may be added; but this is merely by the way – our holier-than-thou types, I say, in addition to their efforts to ban abortion on a state-by-state basis, have stooped to downright fraud in their effects to discourage women from terminating their pregnancies.  The experience of Estefania (her last name was withheld at her request) is typical.  She was apprehensive that she might be pregnant after a missed period, so she typed “abortion pill near me” into Google and went to the first clinic that came up on the web page.  What she wandered into was not an abortion clinic but a “crisis pregnancy center” (or CPC for short), whose express purpose is to dissuade women from having abortions.  CPCs outnumber abortion clinics by a factor of three-to-one. Some are deliberately placed near abortion clinics, and use names and building signs nearly identical to these clinics to create confusion. Many of them also use multiple names to conceal their religious agenda.  The Keim Centers, which Estefania consulted, is run by a non-profit called the Crisis Pregnancy Center of Tidewater, whose website openly proclaims the organization’s anti-abortion and religious views.  But the Keim Centers itself does not make any religious references, so Estefania had no idea why the nurse she consulted was repeatedly pressuring her to forego the abortion she expressly came to obtain or why the center refused to give her a referral to an abortion provider.  CPCs are not required to be licensed or to answer to any state or federal regulatory bodies.  California tried to get CPCs to disclose whether or not they were medically licensed, but the Supreme Court struck down that law.  Many people who work at CPCs do not have medical degrees or experience, which does not prevent them from dispensing medical advice.  Such was Estefanía’s experience at The Keim Centers, which she said “scared” her. She was given a pamphlet that claimed abortions could cause breast cancer (they do not). Her counselor also told her that if she had a medical abortion, she might see little hands or little feet during the process – another false claim, as Estefanía was only four weeks pregnant at the time.  She eventually managed to end her pregnancy, but she was one of the lucky ones.  Women who are tricked into coming into CPCs for consultation are frequently delayed by being kept at their centers for hours or scheduling follow-up appointments. By the time women manage to make an appointment at a real clinic, the procedure could become more costly or difficult – or, indeed, in several states, past the time limits that abortions are legally permitted.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 658,820,448; # of deaths worldwide: 6,675,451; # of cases U.S.:  101,865,927; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,113,808. 

What we can get used to:  rising COVID rates, overseas oppression, Russo-Ukrainian war, Trumpian sedition – Our senescent Senate – The stoned monks – Elon Musk’s reception on stage – Evening statistics

Nearly two weeks since the last journal entry, and the cause of such a gap is not so much on account of lack of news but as to what we (or at any rate I) have gotten hardened to over recent months.  For example, the number of COVID cases is steadily rising, along with those of other respiratory diseases such as influenza and RSV, and hospitals are already reporting shortages, both of staff and supplies.  But we are used to rises in respiratory diseases and strains on our hospital system during the winter months.  At this point a rise in COVID cases is no longer news, any more than that of a rise of the level of other respiratory diseases that have been on the scene many years longer.

Then again, the populaces of countries taken over a radical fringe movement, such as Afghanistan and Myanmar, continue to languish under their tyrannous administrations, while the Iranian government cold-bloodedly shoots down demonstrators and executes dissidents with cheerful abandon; and that, too, has become a familiar factor on the international scene that no one thinks of questioning.  Considerable indignation was expressed initially during the takeovers of both Myanmar and Afghanistan, but they excite no more comment now than does the passing of autumn into winter; indeed, on the day of the solstice I anticipate that it will provoke considerably less.

And the peace that once prevailed in Europe for several decades has been broken for nearly a year now by the Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.  The other European nations are somewhat less apathetic on this point than on the others already mentioned, realizing that Ukraine’s fate today could be theirs tomorrow.  But the basic situation remains unchanged:  Putin continues to besiege Ukraine with bombings and armed forces, and he is too firmly entrenched in power to be dislodged.  He appears likely to wage war for years to come.

Again, Donald Trump at one point called for termination of the Constitution to overturn the 2020 election and reinstate him to power.  In effect, he has declared his determination to be this country’s dictator.  And that, too, we have gotten accustomed to.  Even the Democrats barely remarked on it.  As to any hope that our judicial system will impose genuinely substantive penalties for his continual sedition, I give it up as lost.  The Trump Organization has lately been found guilty of tax fraud, but the potential fine is at most $1.6 million, a pittance for someone of Trump’s assets; and in any case he was not directly indicted.  If the Trump Organization were to flounder altogether it would not damage his political standing in the least.  Here, for example, is an excerpt from an analysis by CNN reporter Stephen Collinson:

 “The Justice Department’s success in removing Trump’s legal obstacles to its investigations may also be moving the country toward the resolution of one of the most fateful questions haunting any modern political campaign: Will an ex-president who is running for the White House again, and has a history of inciting violence to further his anti-democratic ends, face criminal charges?”

The question should not be “will an ex-president face criminal charges?” but “when will he face charges?”  The answer, it appears, is never.  The so-called investigative committee has spent months assembling evidence – at any rate, it has claimed to do so – and pundit after pundit has spoken of the grave reckoning that is in store for him.  But it simply does not materialize. 

There are other factors in our political system that appear to be fixtures as well:

“They were the most mortifying sight I ever beheld; and the women more horrible than the men. Besides the usual deformities in extreme old age, they acquired an additional ghastliness, in proportion to their number of years, which is not to be described; and among half a dozen, I soon distinguished which was the eldest, although there was not above a century or two between them.”

Jonathan Swift, in Gulliver’s Travels, is here depicting the struldbrugs, who can never die but who age continually.  But, with an uncanny prescience, he could have been describing the American Senate – for instance, Chuck Grassley of Indiana, who is running for re-election even though he is 88 years old.   Come to think of it, the prospective candidates for the upcoming Presidential election are not exactly spring chickens.  It appears that an alternative has been provided for Democrats who might balk at nominating Biden for the 2024 Presidential campaign.  If Biden decides that he will not, after all, run for office 2024, then Bernie Sanders has declared his intention to run in Biden’s stead; and in contrast to Biden’s 80 years Sanders is  . . . 81.

If this is the best that the Democratic Party can do, it is no wonder that some people still see Trump as a viable candidate.  At a mere 76 years of age, he is a callow youth in comparison with the alternatives being offered. 

Religion may be the opium of the people, but some are inclined to have both of them simultaneously.  Four monks, as well as the abbot, at a temple in Phetchabun province’s Bung Sam Phan district, tested positive for methamphetamine last week.  The monks were immediately defrocked and taken to a local dedication and health center to receive rehabilitation therapy.  The temple now remains without monks, although new ones will be sent to the temple eventually.  Thailand’s infamous Golden Triangle – a tri-junction at the Myanmar, Laos, and Thailand borders – is a hub for drug trafficking and inter-border smuggling.  Methamphetamine pills are common street and party drugs in the nation, readily obtainable and quite inexpensive, even by Thai standards.  This is not the first time that Thai monks have displayed signs of drug addiction. On November 16^th, Phra Annipalo, a monk who got high on amphetamine, was arrested in northern Thailand after carjacking two vehicles and leading policemen on a frantic chase.  He expressed profound contrition afterwards.  Rumor has it that he was indeed very distraught for failing to obtain a bargain because he did not verify what the going rate was first and paid without question the exorbitant price the drug dealer asked for.  His abbot, a holy man, assured him that under the circumstances Heaven would pardon the neglect.

“Ladies and gentlemen, make some noise for the richest man in the world,” Dave Chappelle cried out on stage at the Chase Center in San Francisco as he invited Elon Musk out to join him on Sunday night.  

And they did.  A chorus of boos emerged from the audience, becoming louder and louder, and lasting well over five minutes, taking both Musk and Chappelle completely by surprise.  What perhaps is truly surprising is that Musk, from the attitude he presented during his stage entrance, was visibly preening, evidently ready to receive paeans of praise.  Why he imagined he could be popular in a city that perhaps is the one most affected in the entire country by the numerous layoffs after his takeover of Twitter is something of a mystery.  Musk attempted afterwards to assure his followers on Twitter that the noise had been “90% cheers and 10% boos” but the footage tells a different story.  James Wu, a witness of the event, summed it all up: “A good 80% of the stadium boos. 18k people, and he withers. Like absolutely turns into a corncob.”  Incidentally, this account of the matter was posted on the Web via a tweet on Twitter.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 654,057,226; # of deaths worldwide: 6,659,954; # of cases U.S.:  101,368,712; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,109,981. 

Recent hikes – Convictions of Oath Keepers – Declining Christianity in England – Rising influenza rates – Evening statistics

There has been much hiking of late but a dearth of news.  That is to say, I went with RS in a loop of 22 miles around the city, starting from Arlington Cemetery, on Saturday; and I went with the Wanderbirds in the Great Falls area on the Maryland bank Sunday, scrambling over the Billy Goat Trail.  Both of which were extremely enjoyable, although in retrospect it probably was not the best choice to attempt the extremely rocky Billy Goat Trail with rain in the forecast.  The rain in fact did begin to fall some time after I passed the halfway point, making the rocks very slippery.  But I made it to the end without any ill effects.

In the news, however, I saw little beyond reports of various experts proclaiming that something ominous is “going to” happen to Trump as a result of the investigating committee’s findings – as they have been predicting for months on end, and yet somehow this threatened thunderbolt refrains from falling on Trump’s head and he makes his plans for his campaign in 2024 quite unimpeded.  Merrick Garland persists in dragging his feet on the matter, and even the suit in Fulton County, for which I had entertained great hopes in this respect, shows no signs of coming to an issue. 

Today, at any rate, the drop has fallen, if not on Trump himself, at any rate on one of his most prominent supporters.  Elmer Stewart Rhodes, founder of the Oath Keepers, along with Kelly Meggs, who runs this group’s Florida chapter, were both found guilty of seditious conspiracy.  Their colleagues Thomas Caldwell, Jessica Watkins, and Kenneth Harrelson managed to evade conviction on that charge, but were still convicted of obstructing an official proceeding, a charge seen in many of the other trials of those who assaulted the Capitol.  Prosecutors showed stills from security cameras in which defendants could be seen wheeling in large cases of the supplies, which a “QRF,” or quick reaction force, could transport to the Capitol if needed.  Such an arrangement was necessary to further their plans because although DC has very strict gun-control laws, those of our happy state are much more relaxed and Virginian hunters have virtually unrestricted access to weapons that enable them to hunt down deer, bears, elk, turkeys, hikers, bikers, and various other game suitable for the season.  Text messages showed Caldwell debating whether he should have a boat on hand to ferry the weapons across the Potomac River, although Caldwell denied that was ever his plan. He testified that a text-message reference to moving “heavy weapons” was an excerpt out of a screenplay he was writing.  This ingenious defense, apparently, was not taken as seriously as he initially appeared to expect; prosecutors had visible difficulty in keeping a straight face in response.  Sentencing for all five defendants should take place within the next few weeks.

Christianity is no longer the majority religion in England and Wales.  The amount of English and Welsh who classify themselves as Christian is down to 46% of the population, a significant drop from the 59% of a decade ago.  The biggest gainer is the group who declared themselves to be of “no religion,” from 25% a decade ago to 37% now.  Buddhists, Jews, and Sikhs maintained roughly the same ratio as before, while Islam appears to be the only gainer, going up from 5% to 6.5%. 

Two-third of states across the country are reporting either “very high” or “high” levels of influenza-like activity, according to the CDC.  During this time last year, all states were reporting “low” or “moderate” levels of activity, with only New Mexico and Rhode Island reporting “high” levels.  The hospitalization rate, which sits at 11.3 per 100,000, continues to be the highest for this time in the season since the 2010-2011 season.  So far there have been at least 6.2 million illnesses, 53,000 hospitalizations, and 2,900 deaths from influenza.  For those inclined to worry about the rising influenza rates, however, it must be pointed out that COVID still remains the third leading cause of death in the U.S. after heart disease and cancer – which is a comfort, at any rate.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 645,626,817; # of deaths worldwide: 6,635,241; # of cases U.S.:  100,456,053; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,104,743. 

At Cacapon State Park – Travel via public transportation versus travel by car – A quiet Thanksgiving celebration – Consumer spending – Trump causes more difficulties for his supporters – The European Parliament and Russia – COVID steadily accelerates – Evening statistics

The past few days have not been without incident, but I have been arriving back home so late or so tired (or both) that trying to make daily entries was simply too much of an effort.

On Tuesday I went with the Vigorous Hikers to Cacapon State Park in West Virginia.  This hike was not, in the past, a favorite of mine – chiefly because three miles of it is along a gravel road that leads to Cacapon Mountain Overlook, which is a very popular sight among tourists.  We generally have done the hike in the summer, to take advantage of the swimming it offers; and it was not pleasant to walk on the road with cars passing by in both directions and churning dust in the air as they passed.  But, as it happens, the road is closed to automobiles from November to April, and under such circumstances the hike becomes much more satisfying.  The park center is located in the shadow of a folded mountain ridge, and the views of the valley as one ascends are more extensive in this season, when the leaves have fallen.  The route we chose actually ascended the ridgeline twice – both of the ascents are steep and challenging, especially the second one.  The Cacapon Mountain Overlook is the highlight of the hike; it is the highest point in the Eastern panhandle of West Virginia and its vista comprises the mountain range going through four states:  Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, and Virginia.  We had a splendid day, cold at the beginning but steadily becoming warmer, with clear and intensely blue skies throughout.  However, after 16 miles, 3000 feet of elevation gain, and 2 hours of driving in each direction to the trailhead and back, I felt fairly drained by the time I returned home.

From Wednesday to today I was without a car.  The malfunction indicator light went on during the drive home from Cacapon, so I took it to the dealership on Wednesday.  The mechanics needed more than a day to complete the diagnosis, and of course they were closed on Thursday, so I could not obtain the car again until late this afternoon.  In the meantime I had to rely on public transportation.  It is illuminating to see to the extent to which residents of American cities are dependent on cars for traveling.  You can get to where you want in most cases via public transportation, but it takes longer – significantly so at times – and it requires a good deal more planning.  Thus on Thanksgiving, when I visited my friends DC and JC in Franconia, it took several hours to go to their house and back, whereas it normally takes me less than a half-hour to get there by car.  In fairness it must be noted that the day was Thanksgiving, when the buses and trains have a restricted schedule.  Similarly, today I went to an informal reunion among acquaintances from high school days who live in the area.  The meeting took place close to the Glenmont station, at the northernmost station end of the Red Line, and I had to travel from Vienna, the westernmost station of the Orange line – a journey of well over an hour, not counting the bus rides to the Vienna station and back from the Vienna station upon my return.  By car the total transportation time in both directions is well under 90 minutes.

My relatives had a Thanksgiving celebration in New York, but I was unable to attend because I’m in the middle of having work done on the electrical system in my house.  Still, as the above notes indicate, I was not without resources.  I have in fact celebrated the previous two Thanksgiving Days with DC and JC, and we have always enjoyed being together during this time of the year.  It is somewhat less stressful for my own part as well; traveling to New York during the week of Thanksgiving is exhausting, whether by car, train, bus, or airplane. 

I have made a strenuous effort to avoid the stores, as I generally do on Black Friday.  It appears that on this occasion I am not alone.  The number of shoppers who have gone to stores in person is lower this year than usual.  Many prefer to order online instead.   This doesn’t mean that sales are down – quite the contrary.  Many households have saved money over the past two years, due to spending less on travel and entertainment; low unemployment rates and increases in wages have also been important factors.  They now have money to spend, and they are doing so enthusiastically.  Consumers have been shopping earlier this year and retail spending in October was up 1.3% over a year ago.  Online shopping has gone up to a record $5.29 billion this Thanksgiving, a 2.9% increase over the amount spent last year. 

The unfortunate advocates of Donald Trump are frantically working at damage control after he dined at his club with Kanye West, who has recently been under fire for his avowed anti-Semitism, and a somewhat incongruous fellow-guest:  Nick Fuentes, a notorious white supremacist.  Trump later claimed that Fuentes had been invited by West and that he himself was taken by surprise when West unexpectedly brought Fuentes with him to the dinner.  It seems very unlikely, to put it mildly, that either the security staff at Mar-a-Lago or the Secret Service personnel looking after an ex-President were unaware of Fuentes’ identity, or that they would have failed to inform Trump of the fact.  “This is a fucking nightmare,” said one longtime Trump adviser who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of stoking the former president’s ire at “disloyal” people who criticize him. “If people are looking at DeSantis to run against Trump, here’s another reason why.”  They have another problem to contend with as well:  E. Jean Carroll has filed a suit against Trump for sexual assault, under the Adult Survivors Act, a new law in New York that opened a one-year window for adult victims of such attacks to file claims.  As the case gains momentum, at least a few women who supported Trump in the past are bound to be alienated from him.

The European Parliament designated Russia a state sponsor of terrorism.  The move is largely symbolic, since the European Union does not have a legal framework in place to back it up.  Still, as a mere observation, it is so innocent and so honest that it amounts to a very good thing for a parliament to say. Unfortunately, the U.S. State Department has not followed suit.   Cuba, North Korea, Iran, and Syria are designated as terrorist sponsors, but up to this point Russia has not been added to the list.

Where is COVID in the midst of all of this?  The omicron variant is now a year old, but it is driving COVID case counts higher in many places, forming a prelude to a wave that experts expect to soon wash over the U.S.  As of Tuesday, new COVID cases averaged around 39,300 a day, which is far lower than that of last winter.  However, this figure is a significant undercount because of reduced testing and reporting. About 28,000 people with COVID were hospitalized daily and about 340 died.  Dr. Nicholas Vasquez, a physician in Phoenix, said that his hospital admitted a growing number of chronically ill people and nursing home residents with severe COVID this month.  “It’s been quite a while since we needed to have COVID wards,” he added. “It’s making a clear comeback.”

Today’s statistics as of 9:30 PM – # of cases worldwide: 645,626,817; # of deaths worldwide: 6,635,241; # of cases U.S.:  100,456,053; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,104,743.  The number of COVID-related deaths in this country is still disproportionately high – over 16% of the global total, when we account for only 4% of the global population.  The U.S. ranks 58^th in the list of countries of COVID cases-to-population ratio, but ranks 16^th in the list of countries by COVID mortality rate.

On the Catoctin Trail – Rising incidence of respiratory diseases – Elon Musk and Twitter – Evening statistics

Yesterday was another clear, wintry day and I was on another hike to take advantage of it – this time a considerably easier one than the hike of the preceding day, even though it was longer.  It took place along the Catoctin Trail, from Hamburg Rd. to the Cunningham Manor area, a section with gentle ascents totaling no more than 1100 feet.  It is not a spectacular hike, but it was very lovely under these conditions.  The last of the autumn foliage has fallen, leaving the views though the trees clear and unrestricted; the color of the sky was all the more intensely blue that day, as it generally is when the air is dry and free from the haziness of warmer seasons; the light from the slanting rays of the sun illuminated the vegetation strewing the forest floor with dazzling clarity.  We lunched at the Thurmont Rock Overlook, with its bird’s-eye view of the town of Thurmont across the valley.  Most of us reached that point by 12:30 and all of the hikers completed the hike in the early afternoon, so that even after we partied together for a long while in the parking area close to the bus, we left well before 3:00.  

People have become fairly lackadaisical about wearing masks.  It was somewhat better than usual where I went shopping today, at an Oriental food market.  Those of East Asian origin are more accustomed to wearing facemasks in public; when I visited Beijing in 2000, long before COVID was ever heard of, many people wore them while walking in the street.  But in general, when I go to a store, I tend to be in a minority with regard to mask-wearing.  The effects of this relaxation are beginning to be seen – not so much as COVID is concerned, but influenza instead.  The flu season has come early, with at least 4.4 million cases of flu so far this season, as well as 38,000 hospitalizations and 2,100 deaths.  In the past flu rates have not begun to rise until December or January.  But now, just barely after mid-November, 27 U.S. states have high or very high flu levels.  IN addition, RSV cases are up in record numbers.  The fact that RSV cases were barely detectable for the past two years meant that infants of three years and younger have not been exposed to the virus and thus have not had a chance to acquire immunity. 

All of which is not to say that the COVID viruses have been idle; they account for 3,000 additional hospital admissions on a daily basis. 

Under the regime of Elon Musk, Twitter has restored a number of suspended accounts, including that of Donald Trump.  But as Elon Musk has systematically wreaked havoc in Twitter since his takeover, causing employees to flee in droves and awakening doubts among social media pundits about whether Twitter will be able to survive his management, it no longer has the appeal for Trump that it had formerly.  Strange to say, Trump, who  flooded the Internet with thousands of tweets in the past, claims that he sees “no reason” for returning to Twitter now that it is in the hands of one who, as all the world knows, is continually posing not as a living person but as his own statue erected by public subscription, thus giving an example of the old adage that two of a trade never agree.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 643,324,985; # of deaths worldwide: 6,627,374; # of cases U.S.:  100,250,879; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,102,896.

Big Schloss and Tibbet Knob – A child heroine – Completion of the Silver Line – Turgenev and the war in Ukraine – Campaign donors unenthusiastic about Trump (and who isn’t?) – Our senescent Congress – Evening statistics

I went with the Capital Hiking Club to hike along Mill Mountain to Big Schloss and Tibbet Knob, an area I have not seen for nearly a year.  It was cold along the ridgeline of Mill Mountain, but very clear; and happily, the gusts of the weather forecast never materialized.  The views of the Trout Run Valley to the west and of the Shenandoah Valley to the east had no haze or cloud cover to diminish them, while the wintry temperature (it was at least ten degrees colder than the DC metro area) and our relatively early start meant that we had the viewpoint all to ourselves. 

The hike was somewhat shorter for hikers than usual (5½ miles for the moderate hike and 9 miles for the longer one) but I would say that we compensated for that deficiency in the vertical direction; the moderate hikers alone ascended nearly 2000 feet in elevation gain and the long hikers 1000 feet more.  At all events, I heard no complaints about hikers receiving short measure.  There was a risk in scheduling such a hike at this season.  The drive to the trailhead is well over 1½ hours and the hours of daylight are becoming brief.  But everyone came back to the bus well within the appointed time, and we were able to depart by 3:30.  The members of CHC tend to be younger than the other hiking clubs of which I’m a member, and I was unable to keep pace with a couple of them going up the steepest climbs; but that is as it should be.  One cannot expect to be the swiftest of the lot at 68 years of age.

Of late I have been focusing on those headlines that accentuate the negative (in my defense, I must observe that most of them do), but yesterday I came across one that is more heartening.  Viola Fair went into labor unexpectedly three weeks early at her home in Jennings, MS.  Her daughter, who bears the most appropriate name of Miracle, dialed 911 and then relayed the protocols given by the emergency dispatch operator to her mother so that the latter could ensure a safe delivery.  After the baby emerged, Miracle, seeing that her mother was too weak at this point, picked up her newly-born sister, gently wiped her dry, and rubbed her back to enable the infant to make her first cry.  Miracle is ten years old.

Afterwards the paramedics came and brought the mother and baby to a hospital, where both were given a clean bill of health.  It seems very likely that without Miracle’s intervention, either or both of them could have been seriously impaired.  Miracle was afterwards commended by the St. Louis dispatchers in a ceremony that presented her with a certificate citing the bravery and courage she demonstrated in helping her mother – and, they might have added, for her extraordinary presence of mind.  She herself said that the best part of the experience is that it enabled her to be the first person to see her newborn sister, and also she expressed her desire to be a doctor.  It is of course too early to make predictions about anyone’s future career at this stage, but I earnestly hope that she realizes this ambition of hers.  If she does, she will undoubtedly provide miracles for many others.

The Silver Line has been completed at last!  Actually, the Metro stations and the tracks connecting them have been built over two years ago, but the opening has been delayed on account of testing.  Why such a testing phase should last over two years is something of a mystery (it generally takes place over the span of a few months).  But no matter, it is open now, and at this point Dulles Airport is at long last linked to our city’s public transportation system. 

Turgenev is generally recognized as one of the three giants of 19^th-century Russian literature (the other two of course being Tolstoy and Dostoevsky), but he tends to be praised more in Europe and the U.S. than in Russia itself, possibly because his opinion of his fellow-countrymen is not particularly flattering – as in, for instance, the following passage from Virgin Soil:  “it is a well-known fact, though by no means easy to understand, that Russians are the greatest liars on the face of the earth, and yet there is nothing they respect like truth – nothing attracts them as much.”  I cannot say that respect for truth is very apparent in Russia at this juncture, but Turgenev might have added that in the art of suppressing evidence Russians are unsurpassed.  They exceed even the Chinese in this respect – and that is saying a great deal.

Consider, for instance, the withdrawal from Kherson a bare month after Russia occupied it.  The reasons for the retreat were delivered in a stilted television interview on November 9^th by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Gen. Sergei Surovikin, Russia’s chief commander in Ukraine.  But the orchestrator of this campaign was notable for his absence in this scene.  Nor has Vladimir Putin made a single comment on the matter since that date.  He has also refrained from speaking at the Group of 20 summit in Indonesia.  Not only did he decide not to attend, but he didn’t even join it by video conference or send a pre-recorded speech.  He seems to be disassociating himself from the war that he originated.  I can only suppose that he is intending to foist the blame incurred by its disappointing results (from Russia’s point of view) upon some unfortunate scapegoat or other among his administrators.

Donald Trump has declared his intention to run as a Presidential candidate in 2024, but the wealthiest donors – the mega-donors as they are called – are not exactly rallying to his cause.  While Trump’s political machine is starting off with a war chest of more than $110 million, federal law prevents him from using most of that money to advance his White House campaign. In addition, the Trump campaign is also now being held responsible for millions of dollars in legal fees that were being paid by the Republican National Committee.  Many of those who had donated to Trump’s campaign in 2016 have expressed wariness of committing to him again.  The reaction of hedge fund manager Ken Griffin, the second-most prolific donor to Republican campaigns during the midterms, appears to be typical.  “I’d like to think that the Republican Party is ready to move on from somebody who has been for this party a three-time loser,” he said at Bloomberg’s New Economy Forum in Singapore, and has expressed interest in backing DeSantis if the latter declares his intention to run.

Nancy Pelosi has announced her intention to retire at the venerable age of 182.  (On second thoughts, being in a calmer mood than I was when I first drafted the preceding sentence, I voluntarily knock 100 years off of that figure.)  Whatever one may think of her career and its effects, she at any rate deserves credit for not retaining her position until overtaken by death, in contrast to several of our other politicians.  How these worthies cling to their offices of power!  Dianne Feinstein, Charles Grassley, Richard Shelby, James Inhofe, and Patrick Leahy are all well over 80 – and that’s only in our Senate.  I have already mentioned in earlier entries that our Congress is the oldest it has been in history.  And in this context it may be mentioned that Joseph Biden turns 80 tomorrow.  If, as many people say he will, he decides to run again in 2024, he will be 82 at beginning of the campaign – and if, by some miracle, he wins, he will be 86 by the end of his second term, unless of course he is felled by cancer like the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 642,831,036; # of deaths worldwide: 6,625,413; # of cases U.S.:  100,162,437; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,102,457.

Hiking in Gettysburg – Pence’s memoir – Trump’s announcement to run in 2024 – Effects of the pandemic on daily social life – Evening statistics

Yesterday I went with the Vigorous Hikers to Gettysburg.  It was a somewhat overcast day, and the forecast of rain in the afternoon caused us to make the hike slightly shorter than our usual amount (still, it came out to about 13½ miles, which is not bad).  It is undeniably a field of monuments:  practically every regiment that participated in the battle put up a memorial statue there.  I was curious to see whether I could use the hike for either Wanderbirds or Capital Hiking, but I’m afraid it’s not feasible.  Gettysburg, unlike Antietam or Manassas, is geared towards the car driver, and any extensive hike there involves a good deal of road-walking.  On a weekday, especially in the off-season, there is not much traffic to contend with; but on any weekend, even in the dead of winter, the amount of cars to dodge would make hiking there a torment.  There are some trails along the outskirts of the battlefield, notably on Big Roundtop, a peak to the south of the battlefield (but the term “peak” is relative – the ascent to the top is barely 250 feet), but for the most part one must trod pavement to see the area. 

Afterwards a few of us went to the cemetery where Union soldiers who had fallen on the battlefield were hastily interred and we lingered at the site where Lincoln delivered his famed Gettysburg address.  From there we passed through the town of Gettysburg itself.  During my first visit there, many years ago, it had appeared shabby and rundown.  I am happy to say that that is no longer the case; it has a thriving, prosperous air, and the main city square of the historic district is well worth seeing in its own right, featuring as it does many buildings replete with both historic and architectural interest, including the home where Lincoln stayed the night before he delivered his oration.

It was a bit of a letdown, returning from the scene of perhaps the most famous speech of our greatest president, to be regaled with news of one of his decidedly lesser successors.

“Now, my mother never bothered about bringing me up.  She just saw to it that I got whacked at decent intervals and was taught the difference between right and wrong; there is some difference, you know, but I’ve forgotten what it is.”

No, the speaker is not Mike Pence in his recent memoir “So Help Me God”; the quotation comes from a story (“Clovis on Parental Responsibilities”) by Saki.  But it would not be out of place in that first-named publication, for Pence’s disclosures are notably disingenuous.  Many of his anecdotes certainly have the ring of truth – such as the one that relates how, on January 1, 2021, he received a virulent tongue-lashing from Donald Trump excoriating the latter’s refusal to prevent Congress from ratifying Biden’s victory.  But the implication that this episode was Pence’s first intimation of how determined Trump was to subvert the election and that in particular he wanted Pence to be the instrument of his doing so – which cannot possibly be the case.  Trump’s tirade, after all, did not emerge from a vacuum.  His conduct during his entire four years of office has provided a consistent pattern of deceit, rage, abuse, and treachery.  But Pence never condemns Trump in so many words and never denounces Trump’s orchestration of the events of January 6^th for what they are:  an act of brazen, unmitigated sedition. 

Such spinelessness on his part is all the more troubling for Pence being a man of a far different caliber than, for example, Steve Bannion or Michael Flynn.  He is not a scheming opportunist and he is not particularly greedy for wealth.  He sincerely believes in his faith and had rigorously adhered to its statutes in his own private life.  During the storming of the Capitol he behaved with admirable courage and decision, to the extent of defying his Secret Service detail and insisting that the process of ratification be completed even in the face of assault and bloodshed.  Yet, although he himself was threatened with mob violence from Trump’s supporters carrying rope and noose and shouting “Hang Mike Pence!”, he still refuses to condemn Trump explicitly; he is much more severe upon Trump’s critics than upon Trump himself.  Fancy an early Christian devising excuses for the excesses of the Roman Emperor Caligula, and you will get some idea of the effect of Pence’s remarks about Trump. Incidentally, with his harsh stream of invective, continual falsehoods, unbridled lusts, and sadistic nature, Trump bears a marked resemblance to that last-named personage, to an extent as to make one whether Trump is channeling the latter’s spirit.

Last night Trump announced his intention to run for Presidential again in 2024, which should come a s a surprise to no one.  The Republican Party has reacted notably less enthusiastically to his candidacy than it did in 2020.  They know very well that the disappointments they endured in the midterm elections – far from being the “red wave” they anticipated, they wound up with only a narrow majority in the House of Representatives and actually lost a seat in the Senate – are in a large measure due to him.  Several Republican governors – DeSantis, Kemp, and Youngkin in particular – have taken pains to distance themselves from him and have proved that they can do very well without his support.  Youngkin, indeed, has clearly looked upon Trump as a liability from the beginning and took vigorous measures to prevent him from interfering in the Virginia gubernatorial contest.  For that matter, even Trump’s own daughter has disassociated herself from the ongoing campaign, publicly announcing her retirement from political life. 

Various people have, like me, been documenting how their daily habits have changed since the advent of the pandemic.  Some are unsurprising:  more people are staying indoors more, traveling less, avoiding physical contact (such as hand-shaking), spending more time watching movies online, wearing face masks in public places, etc.  But there are disquieting reactions as well:  wearing less makeup, dressing less fashionably (one woman said that she now no longer wears a bra unless she “absolutely has to”), and in general, taking less care about one’s appearance; narrowing down of social circles; increased feelings of claustrophobia when being among crowds.  Regular attendance of religious services declined severely during the early months of the pandemic – understandingly, when large gatherings of people in enclosed areas was explicitly forbidden.  They are now gradually recovering, but most churches average above 50% of their pre-pandemic attendance but below 90%. Just over a quarter of churches (26%) say that their attendance is more than 50% but less than 70%, while 31% report a congregation of 70% to less than 90% what it was prior to the pandemic.  Clearly it will take some time to repair all of the social disruption that the pandemic has caused – may continue to cause, indeed, if we see another upsurge this coming winter.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 641,352,690; # of deaths worldwide: 6,619,287; # of cases U.S.:  100,013,831; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,100, 979.

The hike in Patapsco – Reduction in COVID deaths – Possible increase in penalties for dealers of fentanyl – Trump and DeSantis – A festivity at Mar-a-Lago – Evening statistics

Another pause in the narrative, on account of curious sequence of events that occurred over the past couple of days.

I was supposed to lead a hike for the Wanderbirds today, and in preparation for it I scouted the route with my co-leader yesterday, which was the only day that he was available.  It was a most discouraging exploration.  Everything that could conceivably go wrong, did.  The hike route was in Patapsco State Park, and when we arrived there we discovered that numerous closures had taken place.  The park is a strange one in many ways.  It is divided into several discrete areas, some of which are not even contiguous.  However, two of these areas, the Avalon/Orange Grove area along the south bank of the river and the Hilton area along the north bank, are connected by means of a bridge.  The Hilton area contains a trail called the Grist Mill Trail that runs along the shoreline of the river through the area and acts as the spine, so to speak, of the trails that span it; many trails in the area use a junction with this trail as their terminus, and it is difficult to organize a hike of significant length without using this trail to some extent.  Judge, then, of our dismay when we discovered that the trail had been closed for an indefinite period.  Moreover, the parking area that we have sometimes used there was closed likewise.  There is another parking area about a quarter of mile from it, but it is small and crowded, and in any case it would be impossible for a bus to maneuver into it.

It was clear that the hike in its original form would have to be rerouted.  In previous iterations we would park close to the bridge, walk across to hike in the Hilton area, cross the bridge again, and hike in the Avalon area.  Since it was no longer feasible to access the Hilton area at all, we were forced to restrict our scouting to the Avalon area, which has the most extensive parking.

But even here we ran into difficulties.  The park has several trails are blazed, but it likewise contains trails with no blazes (or even names) at all.  The blazed trails have numerous junctions with the unblazed ones, and at several of these the blazes are not particularly well-placed for the purpose of adhering to the correct, named trail.  On one of trails we explored, called Rockburn Branch, we soon found ourselves diverted onto a trail with no blazes that led to a small stream.  I had no recollection of this detail from previous visits, but it had been several years since I had been to the park and of course I could not rely on my memory at so distant a date – so we pressed on, despite my misgivings.  We found our way back eventually, but it was a time-consuming detour.  There were similar opportunities for going astray at other junctions and the park maps were not especially illuminating – all in all, we must have covered about four miles in detours.  Then, too, we got a late start because we spent part of the morning investigating the state of the parking at the Hilton area, and we completed our wanderings just a few minutes before the park closed for the day.

At this point I was tempted to cancel the hike altogether.  Such a course is somewhat more feasible for the Wanderbirds than it is for Capital Hiking, because the hike fees used to pay for the bus are not collected in advance.  But about thirty people had already signed up for it, and canceling the hike, especially at such short notice, would have been a drastic measure, one that would have done no good for the club’s reputation.

So I spent yesterday night tabulating the information we obtained from the scouting to devise a hike to use for today.  Organizing a two-tier hike, a longer and a shorter one, would be impossible at this stage.  The hike would have to a compromise between the two, sufficiently long to satisfy those expecting to go 10-13 miles and yet not too taxing for those who normally hike 7-9 miles.  Eventually I came up with a route that seemed to meet these conditions. 

I started leading the hike this morning with considerable unease. To begin with, there were many potential wrong turns I could take and thereby mislead others in the process.  At least on this occasion I knew which ones to look out for.  Then again, I had had no time to verify whether the hike, which I projected to be about 9 miles, was too long or too short.  If it was too long, some of the attendees might not be able to complete it, and if it was too short, some of the attendees might resent spending a day being driven to a hike not sufficiently challenging to interest them.

All of these worries turned out to be needless.  The hike was indeed longer than my original estimate (about 10½ miles in all) but everyone completed it well within the appointed time.  We had almost ideal weather:  brisk, certainly (in the mid-40s) but sunny and breezy and perfectly dry.  The hikers all expressed enjoyment – and, in some cases, delight – from this introduction to the river valley, which many of them had never seen before.  I had hoped that the timing of the hike would enable us to arrive at the park’s waterfall, which is its most prominent feature, at the right time for lunch.  This hope was realized; several of us arrived there between 11:30 and 12:00.  The waterfall is not large, but its streaming waters make a vivid contrast with the black rock behind the falls as they spill into a small shallow pellucid pond at its base.  There were numerous large and fairly flat rocks to sit upon, and we saw the play of the sunlight on the pond and we heard the continual soft plashing of the water in the background as we consumed our meal.

 After the hike, as usual, we snacked and drank soft drinks and beer.  Many members had contributed various chips and baked goods, and conversation as we grouped about the bus and waited for all members to filter in became extremely lively and animated.  It was, in fact, the closest approximation I have seen to the sort of aftermath of club hikes that occurred before the pandemic began.  So it might be said (perhaps somewhat hyperbolically) that I have plucked victory from the jaws of defeat.  In any case, I was well-satisfied with the outcome.

During all of this I have not been following the headlines to any great extent; and I’m not sure, from glancing at them this evening, that they are worth much attention.

There is some encouraging news.  COVID deaths have decreased by almost 90% since February, according to the WHO.  Nine months ago, about 75,000 died from COVID on a weekly basis; this week’s death toll was 9,400.  If we can maintain this diminished rate over the winter season, the pandemic be fairly said to be at an end.

The upsurge in fentanyl use, and in fentanyl overdosing in particular, has prompted one city to propose more stringent legislation against its dealers.  Currently the maximum sentence in California law for anyone who sells fentanyl is three years.  Todd Gloria, the mayor of San Diego, announced plans to pursue state legislation to enhance sentences when the dealing of fentanyl results in death.  The proposed change in legislation would charge those who sell fentanyl would be charged with murder when such deals result in death.  It seems an eminently sensible proposal.  The amount of overdoses is growing dramatically. The number of fentanyl overdose deaths in San Diego was 825 between January and June of this year.  The death count was 84 five years ago. 

Among a certain political party, the wolves are beginning to devour each other – or rather, one wolf is snarling and baring its teeth, while the other refuses to play.  Donald Trump has in the past couple of weeks spoken about Ron DeSantis with his usual freedom and candor, calling him “DeSanctimonious,” accusing him of disloyalty (which is, of course, the ultimate crime in Trump’s eyes), and denouncing him for not displaying the usual response of gratitude for unkindness that Trump has come to expect from his followers.  For all of the differences between them, DeSantis is following the same strategy that Biden pursued during the 2020 election:  allowing Trump to condemn himself out of his own mouth, while remaining obstinately unresponsive to Trump’s provocations.  It does indeed appear to be a strategy that is virtually foolproof, and why some of Trump’s other competitors have not used it is something of a mystery.

In the meantime Trump’s younger daughter Tiffany has tied the knot with Michael Boulos, a Lebanese businessman, at the far-famed family residence in Mar-a-Lago.  Originally the wedding was set to be on a lavish scale, with 500 guests invited.  The damage caused to Florida neighborhoods by Hurricane Nicole forced them to scale back and reduce the guest list to a mere 250.  Well, one can’t have everything.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 640,345,263; # of deaths worldwide: 6,615,396; # of cases U.S.:  99,898,467; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,100,127.

Many meetings – A winery hike – The defeat of the “born alive” measure – Grinding down of Afghan women – Increase of vaccinations and boosters – The zero-tolerance policy in China – Evening statistics

“Is it not a pleasure to greet guests from afar?” as Confucius observed in his Analects.  And the distance can be in time as well as space, especially as the events of the pandemic have cut across so many types of social interaction.  Today I went with LM and others on a winery hike, and the members of the group included PF, whom I have not seen for months.  She and her husband have moved to the Front Royal area, and in addition the opportunities for meeting on group hiking events have been limited. And while our group was hiking in Sky Meadows, I ran across SM, who, among other things, was responsible for my joining Wanderbirds in the first place.  We were co-workers on a project many years ago (in 1999, in fact) and when we discovered our mutual interest in hiking she directed my attention to the club, which I had not known about before. It was very gratifying to see her again; I do not believe that we have had an opportunity to meet since the beginning of the pandemic. 

The hike went up the Piedmont Overlook, which we normally do not cover during our standard Wanderbirds and Capital Hiking Club hikes, and it offered somewhat clearer views that those of the Paris overlook, which is becoming overgrown.  Afterwards we went to the Blue Valley winery, where we ate and drank together for nearly two hours.  We sighted a Baltimore oriole, the first that I have seen in many a long year.  They were fairly common in the neighborhood where I grew up until a certain time – some time in the late 1960s – when they suddenly became much rarer.  I am not sure why this should be the case; they are not endangered, as far as I know.

In a victory for women’s rights (not to mention safety), the “born alive” measure proposed in Montana has been formally defeated.  The measure, which was deceptively innocuous in its wording, was in fact a thinly-disguised device for throwing obstacles in the way of medical practitioners to administer abortions.  The voters of Montana were sufficiently astute to see through the intent of this measure, and in effect told the state administrators to mind their own business in such matters.

In a crushing defeat for women’s rights, the government of Afghanistan has banned women from attending gyms and visiting public parks.  At this point Afghan girls are prevented from attending middle school and high school, while all Afghan women are restricted from most fields of employment and are required to wear clothing from head to foot whenever they appear in public.

“Commemorate Kristallnacht – treat yourself to more soft cheese and crispy chicken. Now at KFCheese!”  Such was the message that KFC sent out to amazed Germans yesterday, the 84th anniversary of the Night of Broken Glass in which Nazis led gangs in the torching, vandalizing, and ransacking of Jewish shops, businesses, and synagogues across Germany.  It would appear that the message was computer-generated, automatically attaching itself any time that a significant anniversary is mentioned in the headlines.  Nonetheless, social media experts in Germany said that they were astounded that the company had no checking mechanism to pick up on the blunder.  The majority of Germans look upon the Hitler era as a profound embarrassment and disgrace (or proclaim that they do, at any rate), but perhaps even the most right-wing among them would regard eating Kentucky Fried Chicken with cheese as a very odd way of celebrating the Nazi regime. 

More than 5.6 million COVID vaccine and booster shots were administered in the past week, the highest seven-day total in the U.S. since January.  Most of them were bivalent boosters, designed to combat the most virulent Omicron strains.  COVID cases and hospitalizations have come down over the past several months, which has led the White House to stress not allowing it to dictate daily life, even while still regarding it as a serious threat.  “After 20 months of hard work, the pandemic no longer controls our lives. It’s still a concern, but it no longer controls our lives,” Biden said in a news conference yesterday.

China, by way of contrast, has been more cautious, to put it mildly.  Places in which even only a few cases have materialized are abruptly locked down, sometimes for very long periods.  In the city of Ruili, which is close to the Myanmar border, residents spent a total of 119 days barred from leaving their homes during the period from March, 2021 to April, 2022.  Mandatory testing has been so frequent that infants have been swabbed six dozen times by their first birthdays.  Officials have the authority at any given time to instruct people not to leave specific districts, compounds, or residences. They are empowered to lock compound and building doors, and to construct gates or walls around residences with little or no notice. Officials may also require people to transfer to a quarantine facility.  Travel – even internal travel – has been greatly hampered.  Beijing in particular is difficult to enter, even for those who have negative test results.  Visitors from outside the country are subject to quarantine for ten days.  The U.S. Department of State advises American visitors to carry a two-week supply of water, food, and medication, because whenever an area becomes locked down, groceries, deliveries, and public transportation may be unavailable.  Even so, COVID has been rising slightly in the country. China reported 10,729 new infections on Nov. 10, compared with 9,005 a day earlier.  China counts symptomatic and asymptomatic cases separately; 1,209 cases on Nov. 10 were symptomatic and 9,520 were asymptomatic, while 1,185 cases were symptomatic and 7,820 asymptomatic on Nov. 9. 

Today’s statistics as of 10:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 639,313,342; # of deaths worldwide: 6,611,644; # of cases U.S.: 99,859,908; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,099,856.

Familiarity, even with a pandemic, breeds contempt – Possibility of acceleration of lawsuits against Trump – Abortion and the mid-term elections – The relative sedateness of the midterm elections – Evening statistics

It will be observed that the intervals between journal entries are becoming longer.  Part of the reason is the number of hikes I’ve been leading over the past several months.  It is time-consuming to prepare for them (including the scouting for them that is involved) and on the days of the hikes themselves I often feel too tired to write after the hikes are completed and I have driven back home.  But there is also psychological fatigue to reckon with as well.  When I first began the idea of striving against the ravages of a steadily increasing epidemic was at any rate a source of stimulation.  But when a plague or a war drags on for months and years, without any noticeable change from one day to the next, a reaction of indifference, or at any rate a nullification of the intensity of one’s earlier emotional response, can set in.  In Aldous Huxley’s “After Many a Summer Dies the Swan,” which is set in 1939, as the state of the world was worsening on a daily basis, the reaction of one character to a news headline announcing yet another international misfortune must have been typical of many living through that dismal time:  “’Franco claims gains in Catalonia,’ Jeremy read, and turned away.  The frightfulness of the world had reached a point at which it had become for him merely boring.” In the early stages, when we were devising methods to combat the pandemic both through technological advances and the institution of various social measures, was in an odd way inspiriting; our current state of passively waiting for it to become a pandemic no longer is – not to put too fine a point on it – dull. 

Something similar must be said about the ongoing saga of the momentum of the various cases levied against Donald Trump is supposedly attaining.  The Democrats have performed better than expected during the midterm elections and Trump will not be receiving the protection he hoped to receive from an overwhelmingly Republican Congress, so perhaps prosecutors will feel more emboldened to bring him to court – but what a time they’ve taken about it!  After all, many of the rioters who attacked the Capitol have been charged and are serving time by now.  Several of them have been formally convicted of sedition.  It is high time that the principal person concerned in setting up the riot be brought to book as well. 

Speaking of midterm elections – abortion played a significant role in them.  Five states voted on changes to abortion rules.  Vermont, California, and Michigan all voted in favor of including the right to reproductive freedom in the state constitution.  In Kentucky, the question was the opposite: whether or not to specifically exclude the right to abortion in the state constitution. This measure was rejected by a narrow margin.  In Montana the issue is somewhat more convoluted.  Voters were not asked about abortion directly. Instead they were asked to decide on a so-called “born alive” measure that would guarantee any newborn infant, even those born as a result of abortion, the right to medical care that will preserve life and would criminalize health care providers who do not make every effort to save such an infant’s life – a measure that would obviously discourage providers from attempting abortions.  As of this writing, the measure appears on the verge of being defeated.  The majority of Americans, it is clear, do not wish the government to meddle in such matters; and it is to be hoped that the Republicans will get the message and stop adhering to a policy that is clearly untenable in the long run.

On the whole, midterm elections have gone more smoothly than I would have predicted.  Candidates on both sides have conceded when it became apparent that they failed to obtain a superior number of voters to that of their rivals.  There were no large-scale displays of violence and – so far at least – no one is initiating lawsuits claiming that an election was “stolen” from him.  So perhaps my fears about the damage that Trump has inflicted on our electoral process have been gratifyingly wrong; the electoral contests of 2022 have been, to put it mildly, much more decorous than those of 2020.

Today’s statistics as of 10:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 638,843,596; # of deaths worldwide: 6,609,952; # of cases U.S.: 99,809,767; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,099,494.

This past Halloween – The mountain forests in autumn – Trump signals his intentions of running again – Bolsonaro imitates Trump, his mentor – Evening statistics

We continue to have comfortable weather, but it rained a bit on the evening of Halloween.  The number of children going from house to house for trick-or-treating was probably lower than usual on that account.  I doubt if more than twenty knocked on my door during the course of the evening.  I noticed that virtually all of them were accompanied by adults. Such a precaution would not be thought necessary when I was growing up, but they are now, sadly. 

In the mountains the foliage is getting to be past its “peak,” i.e., the time when the greatest number of leaves have changed color without having yet fallen.  To my mind this current stage is equally lovely, if not more so; as the leaves fall, the sunlight brightens and reinforces the colors of the leaves still remaining with even greater intensity, almost to the point of glowing.  It is delightful, also, to hear the sound of the fallen leaves crunching underfoot; although, it must be admitted, these fallen leaves can be a source of risk:  when they cover up the trail, it is not always easy to find one’s way, and they hide the rocks or tree roots that can cause a walker to trip.  I have had many opportunities to observe the progress of autumn in the forests, for during this week alone I hiked Sunday, Tuesday, and today, and I will be hiking this coming Friday, Saturday, and Sunday as well.  The combination of the temperate weather and the continually changing phases of the foliage is too good to resist.

Recently ex-President Trump delivered a speech to a group of his supporters in Texas in which he gave tolerably broad hints that he intends to run again in 2024.  “In order to make our country successful, safe and glorious again,” he said, “I will probably have to do it again.”  It requires no gift of prophecy to foretell that the word “probably” will soon be omitted for future such pronouncements.  Is it by design or simply coincidence that the name of the place in which he made this speech is Robstown?  For he is undeniably the Prince of Robbers.

Jair Bolsonaro has been imitating Trump in his own amateur fashion.  He was defeated in the recent Brazilian presidential election by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva but has refused to concede formally.  He has wavered since the results were announced, meeting with seven of the country’s Supreme Court judges and indicating that he has indeed lost the election, but never saying so outright.  Shortly after the election results were tallied, several of his supporters began to blockade roads and demand a military uprising, bringing traffic chaos to many cities such Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo.  The inhabitants of Brasilia will do well to place guards around its National Congress Building over the next several weeks, lest it suffer the fate of our own Capitol.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 636,202,875; # of deaths worldwide: 6,596,765; # of cases U.S.: 99,438,740; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,096,153.

Rumblings of Mauna Loa – Attack on Russian troops at Crimea – The ongoing protests in Iran – Summiting El Capitan – Evening statistics

A great explosion is imminent.  No, Donald Trump has not threatened to release all of the classified data that he purloined to Putin – not yet, anyway – but there are ominous rumblings on the Big Island of Hawaii.   Mauna Loa, which makes up over 50% of the island’s landmass, has delivered several low-intensity earthquakes recently, signs that an eruption may be forthcoming.  The volcano last erupted in 1984.  Lave travels relatively quickly, and in one eruption (in 1950) it took less than three hours to flow from its source to the sea, a distance of 15 miles.  Since the 1984 eruption, the population of the Big Island has more than doubled in size, so substantial damage to homes is a definite possibility.  Several homes are sufficiently close to the vents in the volcano to be reached by the lava flow.

The Ukrainians have carried out a “massive” drone attack on the Black Sea Fleet in the Crimean port city of Sevastopol as part of their large-scale effort to retake some of the territory occupied by Russian troops since the invasion on February 24^th.  The Crimean peninsula was actually annexed by Russia in 2014 and is regarded by Putin as being of supreme strategic importance.  He evidently is unaware of that fine old adage, “Crimea doesn’t pay.”

The head of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards has told Iranians to end the weeks-long demonstrations that have gripped the country, warning that Saturday would be their “last day” of protest.  Hossein Salami, the Guard’s Commander-in-Chief, called on Iranian young people specifically to desist from protesting, saying “Today is the last day of the riots. Do not come to the streets again. What do you want from this nation?”

Well, at a guess, I’d say that what Iranians want is a government that does not meddle in matters that do not concern them, such as the sort of headgear people wear or whether or not they bare their arms or legs in the midst of the heat of summer.  Then again perhaps they might feel a distinct preference for leaders who do not act as sanctimonious killjoys, forbidding any form of singing or dancing in public.  Oh, and if one may touch upon so delicate a point, perhaps they also yearn for a government that is a trifle less enthusiastic about inflicting the death penalty; the Iranian government has the reputation of executing the greatest number of people per capita of any nation in the world.  This is merely a guess on my part, you understand, and of course I may be mistaken.  But somehow I do not think that I am.

El Capitan is a vertical rock formation in Yosemite National Park, a granite monolith about 3,000 feet from base to summit along its tallest face.  It is a popular objective for rock climbers.  So it is not surprising that Sam Baker completed the climb over the course of several days, resting in hanging camps at appropriate intervals, except for one trifling circumstance:  he is eight years old.  The climb to El Capitan has claimed over 30 deaths since 1905, or about a quarter of all rock climbing deaths in the history of Yosemite.  But Joe Baker, his father, airily brushed aside any concerns onlookers expressed for his son’s safety, because, after all, he was wearing a harness.  Well, I daresay an eight-year old child warning a harness has a better chance of surviving such a climb than a fully-fledged adult without one. I suppose young Master Baker’s next feat will be clambering along Hanshelleren Cave in Flatanger, Norway, widely considered the most challenging rock climb in the world; but it is to be hoped that he will attempt this feat before his thirteenth birthday, for of course he will at that point be past his prime.

Today’s statistics as of 8:30 PM – # of cases worldwide: 635,253,241; # of deaths worldwide: 6,593,193; # of cases U.S.: 99,341,447; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,095,199  .

Our beautiful October – Increases in COVID – Another rioter sentenced – A would-be Senatorial nonagenarian – Lindsay Graham urges truthfulness for everyone except himself – Draft-dodging in Russia – Evening statistics

We have been having a splendid autumn.  Day after day the weather has been wonderful, air without any trace of the haze one sees in the summer months, so that everything is bathed in sunlight.  Today I was outside mainly for the purpose of running errands, but the foliage was so magnificent that I was stopping continually to gaze on the splendid array of scarlet, crimson, burgundy, orange, coral, gold.  It was rather breezy, but not at all cold, such a contrast to the heavy, stagnant air of this past July and August. 

Alas, there is a downside to this shift in weather.  COVID hospitalizations are on the rise.  There were about 1,100 people hospitalized with COVID-19 in New York City on Oct. 24, up from 750 in mid-September.  Influenza and RSV cases have increased as well.  Over the past two years, when people were wearing facemasks as a matter of course, the case rate for influenza had been significantly lower than usual during the winter season, but as people are becoming less cautious the case rates threaten to be at the usual level this year. 

Albuquerque Head has been sentenced to 7½ years in prison, one of the longest terms handed down to the January 6 rioters, but not one iota less long than it should be.  He is the man who grabbed Officer Michael Fanone and threw him to the mob that beat him to such a degree as to cause Fanone to undergo a heart attack and severe brain injury. 

Iowans are facing a momentous decision in the upcoming election:  namely, whether or not to send Republican Chuck Grassley back for an eighth term in the U.S. Senate.  He has served in the Senate since 1980 – that is to say, for 42 years – and is now 89 years old.  If he were to win, he would be 95 by the end of his next term.  No one seems to consider his age to be an issue.  That his own party would brush it aside as a trifle of no importance is hardly surprising; but, amazingly, the Democratic party is equally reticent on this point.  Hardly anyone in the opposition has touched upon it at all.  The phrase “term limits” is clearly anathema to both parties.

Another senatorial election is also of interest.  Hershel Walker, the Republican candidate in the upcoming Georgia election, is a firm anti-abortionist.  Two women have come forward during the campaign to say that in the past Walker impregnated them some years ago and then pressured them afterwards to abort the child.  He has denied both allegations.  The salient point of this episode is not the allegations themselves – whether or not they have any validity I have no way of knowing, nor do any of the voters in Georgia – but the fact that Lindsay Graham has sprung to his defense by saying, “If you’re a conservative, they don’t give a damn about the truth. They’re trying to destroy his life 13 days before the election.”  Considering that Graham has just induced a Supreme Court Justice to relieve him from the responsibility of complying with a subpoena to testify in grand jury investigation, I would say that concern for truth is not one of his strong points.

Young and not-so-young Russian men are adopting an unusual strategy of avoiding the draft;  they are pretending to be stricken with HIV or, failing that, with hepatitis.  Putin announced on September 21^st that he would draft 300,000 new soldiers, the Internet in Russia has abounded in scams offering potential draftees certificates for either of these ailments for prices in the $600-$900 range.  The falsified HIV and hepatitis diagnoses can be paid via Bitcoin and come alongside forged government documents and currency exchanges.  The buyers are running a considerable risk; if they are discovered to have falsified documents in order to avoid military service, they can be sentenced to up to ten years in prison.

Today’s statistics as of 8:30 PM – # of cases worldwide: 634,509,461; # of deaths worldwide: 6,589,153; # of cases U.S.: 99,278,236; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,094,562        .

The Browntown/Jenkins Gap hike – The worm turns in Iran – Correlation between COVID and coronary disease – Mark Meadows joins the list of those who ignore subpoenas – Evening statistics

Another lovely day and another lovely hike to make the most of it.  I went with the Vigorous Hikers to the little village of Browntown, from where we went up the Browntown Trail to Gravel Springs, then went along the Bluff Trail to the Mt. Marshall Trail, and descended back via the Jenkins Gap Trail:  16 miles in all, and about 2600 feet of elevation gain, most of it fairly gradual.  The day was clear, with the beautiful autumnal light characteristic of this time of year, which for some reason seems fuller and mellower than the sunlight of other seasons.  Towards the Jenkins Gap parking area, the high point of our hike, bands of mist hovered a few feet above and below Skyline Drive, making the color of the sky bordering the clouds all the more vivid in contrast. 

My return home was somewhat less eventful than that of Elnaz Rekabi, the Iranian sports climber who had neglected to don her hijab during the competition in South Korea.  She is now reportedly under house arrest, after having issued a public apology for her grave omission – whether or not under duress is unclear. 

Iranian women generally are growing restive, it seems.  Students are protesting at universities across the nation.  Tensions have been mounting on the eve of planned ceremonies marking 40 days since the death of Mahsa Amini, the young woman who appeared in public with a hijab that did not conform with the imams’ exalted standards of decorum and who was beaten to death for this grave transgression.  (Forty days mark the traditional period of mourning in Iran, and a ceremony is customarily hold upon the 40^th day after a death.)  Security services warned Amini’s family against holding a mourning ceremony and instructed them not to ask people to visit her grave today.  Otherwise, these authorities jovially explained, “they should worry for their son’s life.”  The establishment has responded to the demonstrations at schools and universities with equal mildness, wiping out the lives of at least 141 protestors.  Such is the legacy of Jimmy Carter’s misguided policies that undermined the government of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and paved the way for the theocrat Ruhollah Khomeini to impose a stranglehold on the country that has lasted nearly half a century.

Deaths from heart attacks have risen over the past two years, particularly among young adults in the 25-44 age range.  In the first year of the pandemic, they went up by 14%. B y the second year of the pandemic, the “observed” compared to “predicted” rates of heart attack death had increased by 29.9% for adults ages 25-44, by 19.6% for adults ages 45-64, and by 13.7% for adults age 65 and older.  It is not clear to what extent that these increases are a direct result of COVID itself and to what extent they are the result of the pandemic’s side effects:  increased levels of stress, decreased levels of exercise, and more failures to undergo medical checkups that could have detected problems in their earlier, and more curable, stages.  There seems little doubt, however, the virus has been triggering or accelerating the incidence of coronary heart disease to an alarming degree.

Mark Meadows has joined the ranks of Trump co-conspirators who think themselves above the law.  He is urging a judge in Pickens County, S.C., where he now resides, to reject an effort by Fulton County, Georgia, to subpoena him for testimony in November.  Meadows was on the line for the infamous phone call from Trump to Brad Raffensperger demanding that the latter “find” enough votes to overturn the Georgia ballot in the presidential election.  Meadows also traveled to Georgia in December 2020 to monitor an audit of the state’s election results in a further effort to cheat the Georgian voters of their choice.  Meadows contends that the probe by Fani Willis – being conducted via a “special grand jury – doesn’t qualify as a criminal investigation, which prevents her from compelling him to appear.  If attempting to undermine a national election isn’t criminal, I don’t know what is.  My mind isn’t flexible enough to digest these legal subtleties, I suppose.

Today’s statistics as of 8:30 PM – # of cases worldwide: 633,563,725; # of deaths worldwide: 6,585,200; # of cases U.S.: 99,139,887; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,093,303.

On Bearfence Mountain – Steve Bannon evades the consequences of his subpoena – Lindsay Grahan evades the consequences of his subpoena – Donald Trump evades the consequences of his subpoena – Does anyone see a pattern here? – The small fry are less favored by fortune – The Trump Organization on trial – The effects of at-home schooling during the past two years of the pandemic – The new British Prime Minister – Evening statistics

Another hiatus in the journal and I have, if not an excuse, at any rate an explanation for it.  I had to lead a hike for the Wanderbirds yesterday.  I scouted it with SW, my co-leader, on Friday and then I led it on Sunday.  The hike included the rock scramble on Bearfence Mountain, a delightful exercise that leads to the top of the rocks at the mountain’s summit.  There one has a 360-degree view of the Shenandoah Valley, wreathed at this season in autumnal splendor. 

During the hike itself I had several “young Turks” at my heels, impelling me to go forward swiftly so that they would not become impatient or complain that I was holding them back.  That is as it should be.  It has been gratifying to know that, at 68 years of age, I am one of the fastest hikers in both the Wanderbirds and the Capital Hiking Clubs, but it is also slightly ridiculous; it is high time for the youngsters to take their natural place in the vanguard.  After the hike we gathered close to the bus, as is our custom, to drink and snack while the hikers gradually assembled.  I was seated with a number of the hikers who arrived back more or less at the same time I did, and by sheer accident it happened that, while most of them were seated on the ground in a circle, I was occupying the space in the center.  We were conversing about various trails and inquiring about the rock scrambles that were available on them.  SW joked that the others were listening attentively to their “Uncle Josh”; and although I wasn’t making any conscious effort to monopolize the conversation, it is difficult at my time of life not to sound avuncular on occasion.  At all events, we had a splendid day; the skies remained clear in the early part of the hike, where the rock scramble took place, and everyone returned to the bus well within the appointed time.

Incidentally, a new study in the British Journal of Sports Medicine suggests that regular physical activity of this nature significantly reinforces the preventative effects of COVID vaccines.  The vaccines have reduced the risk of hospital admission by 60% among fully vaccinated adults in the low physical activity category.  But for adults in n the medium and high physical activity groups, the risk has been reduced by 72% and 86% respectively.  “Low physical activity” is defined as less than 60 minutes of activity per week, “medium physical activity” as 60-150 minutes per week, and “high physical activity” as 150 minutes or more per week – and I do as much as 150 minutes of hiking in a single day, as do many of my friends and acquaintances. 

During this time while I have been joyfully been tramping about in Shenandoah National Park, various events have been occurring on the national and international scene – some of them, alas, the reverse of joyful.

Disregarding subpoenas has become something of a fashion statement among Trump and his faction.  For example, Steve Bannon has been sentenced to four months in prison for his refusal to comply with a subpoena from the House committee investigating the January 6 riot at the US Capitol.  But it’s retribution without teeth; as a matter of course, he plans to appeal the ruling and the judge in the case has decreed that he will not serve any part of his sentence while the appeal process is ongoing. 

Again, Senator Lindsay Graham has been subpoenaed by the investigation conducted in Fulton County by Fani Willis.  He requested a lower appeals court to block this command to testify; and, after a unanimous three-judge panel on the 11th Circuit turned this appeal down with insulting speed and decision, moved it to the Supreme Court itself.  And this appeal has not been in vain:  Justice Clarence Thomas has issued a “temporary” block on the subpoena, of his own accord, not even referring the question to the remainder of the judges on the Supreme Court.  So the investigation initiated by Fulton County has received yet another delay and will no doubt receive as many other delays as Justice Thomas and his fellow Trump cronies have in their power to concoct.

Finally, Donald Trump himself has been formally issued a subpoena by the House investigating committee, but almost certainly he will not testify. He has invoked his fifth-amendment right against self-incrimination more than 400 times in a deposition during the fraud lawsuit by the New York Attorney General.  Does the committee really expect he will behave any differently towards them?  Although it is tempting to speculate whether his ever-present desire to exercise his powers of abuse and maledictions (in both of which he excels) will overcome his prudence.  So far no action has been taken against him for his thorough lack of cooperation in the New York lawsuit, and I do not expect any kind of initiative on the committee’s part either. Everyone is so anxious to handle Trump with kid gloves!

In the meantime the small fry continue to get penalized.  Mark Mazza, a Trump supporter who brought two guns to the Capitol on Jan. 6, and dropped one of them on Capitol grounds, was sentenced to 60 months in prison.  Mazza filed a false police report about the gun he dropped, claiming that it had been stolen from him.  Like many of the rioters, he bitterly regrets having allowed himself to be duped.  Before he was sentenced, Mazza told the court he got “caught up in a mob mentality that I never anticipated” and that he was “not quite the monster that the prosecution has described me as.”  Quite possibly – but, if not a monster himself, he participated in a monstrous uprising and deserves every hour of the sentence handed down to him by the judge.  I have no complaints about what was meted out to him; but as far as the main perpetrator is concerned, unfortunately, the goddess Nemesis appears to ignore him.

Still, there is one bright spot on the horizon.  The Trump Organization, if not Trump himself, is on the defensive.  The trial in which it has been accused of criminal tax fraud has begun today and even if it is doubtful that it will result in any direct penalties administered towards Trump, it does have the potential of eroding a major source of his financial power – and this, although grossly insufficient as a punishment for his numerous misdeeds, is at any rate better than nothing.

We are now beginning to see the effects of children being forced to learn remotely rather than in person for two years running as a result of the pandemic.  Preliminary test scores are confirming that the longer students received lessons via Zoom, the less they learned.  In some cases, third-graders are struggling to sound out words, while ninth-graders are giving up on school altogether because they feel so far behind that they can’t catch up.  From March 2020 to June 2021, the average student in Chicago lost 21 weeks of learning in reading and 20 weeks in math, equivalent to missing half a year of school.  Children whose schools met mostly online in the 2020-2021 school year performed 13 percentage points lower in math and 8 percentage points lower in reading compared with schools meeting mostly in person.  Students in eighth grade, a critical point in educational development, suffered setbacks in nearly every state, with three out of four failing to meet standards.  The Northeast, the area in which schools were the most likely to be closed for months, showed the greatest declines.  On the other hand, students at Catholic schools, which overwhelmingly reopened the fastest, saw no drops in average NAEP scores at all (save for in math among eighth graders). 

Liz Truss’s term as Prime Minister has not lasted long.  After a bare a month and a half, she has been ousted.  Her replacement is Rishi Sunak, who is the first man of Indian descent to occupy the position.  He became chancellor in 2020, and his popularity surged during the COVID pandemic when the Treasury dispensed billions to save jobs and support struggling Britons.  However, his popularity has dimmed somewhat in recent weeks, when it was revealed that his wife, Akshata Murty, had limited her tax exposure (she has since voluntarily paid the extra taxes) and that he himself retained a U.S. green card, hich would allow him to live permanently in the United States. He gave it up before making his first visit to the country as chancellor in October 2021. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:30 PM – # of cases worldwide:  633,055,580; # of deaths worldwide: 6,583,675; # of cases U.S.: 99,116,752; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,093,099.  The mortality rate for Americans is now down to 1.1%, quite a decline from the earlier stages of the pandemic. 

So I attended the Recreational Trails Summit conference for Northern Virginia and, apart from a free lunch (which is never to be despised), what did I gain from it?

It actually was very heartening to see so many state and county agencies involved in the effort to achieve an ambitious goal:  that of enabling all residents of the area to be within a 15-minute walk or a 5-minute bicycle ride to a regionally significant trail. We had representative from the Virginia Department of Health (VDH), the Department of Conservation and Recreation (DCR), and Northern Virginia Regional Commission, among others.  There were also a number of what might be called trail users:  those like myself who without holding any state or county position felt an interest in the status of the trail system in the area and its availability to the residents of Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William counties.

The first piece of information I received filled me with an emotion something like dismay:  the VDH representative told us that 70% of all Virginians can be classified as overweight or obese.  It is clear that, in terms of health care cost alone, it is in the state’s best interest to obtain an infrastructure that provides access to open-air exercise for its residents to the greatest extent possible.

It appears, also, that the effort to fill in the gaps of the Potomac Heritage Trail has accelerated in the past several months.  There was a workshop devoted to prioritizing the gaps that needed to be closed up and to identify any gaps that the agencies may not have included in their analysis.  I put in a plea to attend to the crossing on the PHT at Pimmit Run, which has been washed out for years; time will whether this attempt on my part has any effect.

There are numerous other trails that are being developed and extended.  The last time I went along the Occoquan Greenway (which was some years ago), there was not a great deal to see; but it seems to have been improved since that time, and there are plans to extend it to Occoquan Regional Park and eventually to Occoquan itself.  Many new trails are planned for Loudoun County, including a Winery Trail and also a cross-county trail similar to the one in Fairfax. 

Of course all of this effort is not restricted to hikers.  The trails are also designed for bicyclists, especially for the purposes of commuting – the Department of Transportation is, quite naturally, trying to reduce the amount of traffic on the roads.  The use of e-bikes will not only be tolerated but encouraged, even to the extent of setting up charging stations on some of the more widely-used trails. 

Of special interest to me was the workshop on mapping.  There is a need to collect data on features of the trails such as availability of restrooms (many of the trails pass through county or state park with such facilities), benches, picnic tables, etc., and also to identify deficiencies in wayfinding.  I pricked up my ears at this last item, because certain trails, such as the Fairfax Cross-County Trail, are very poorly marked.  So when they talked about the need for volunteers once the methodology of data collection was finalized, I pointed out that there are several local hiking clubs from whom they should be able to find recruits.  I certainly would participate in such an effort willingly.

It was all very far-ranging and elaborate, and at times I wondered whether it was excessively so.  But the conference was not merely formulating a wish-list; quite a lot of money has been allocated by various federal, state, and county agencies, all of whom are anxious to establish a better level of health in the state population than is currently the case.  The reduced health costs alone would justify the funding, and when the reduction of vehicle emissions, increase in tourism, and improvements in the environment are factored in, it is evident that the government agencies are anticipating rich returns for the investment in trail infrastructure. It would be an unexpected development from the pandemic, but not at all an impossible one, if it results in a long-term increase in out-of-door exercise among the American population at large.

Hikes after returning from the trip – An Iranian athlete without a hijab – A possible reversal of declining birth rates – Evening statistics

After returning from the trip, I naturally had to attend to various chores that piled up during the evening after the drive home and the following day:  laundry, going through the accumulated mail, lawn-mowing, etc.  But on Sunday I hiked with the Wanderbirds along a circuit involving the Appalachian Trail in Shenandoah National Park going over North and South Marshall, and returning via the Bluff and Mt. Marshall Trails.  It is strange to look back upon a time in my salad days when I looked upon the ascents of the two Marshalls as being formidable; now they appear to me very easy indeed, involving hardly any effort at all.  Our bus had a much higher attendance than in previous weeks.  To my surprise several hikers from the Capital Hiking Club signed up for this hike; there generally has been little mixing between the two groups, even though some (like myself) belong to both,.  The forecast had initially been for rain, was then modified to being merely cloudy, and in the event we had a sunny day with temperatures in the 60s and low humidity – perfect weather for hiking.  The foliage is less advanced in this area than in the ranges I had hiked in during the previous week, but there was still plenty of color throughout the hike.

On Tuesday I went with the Vigorous Hikers club on the Rose River/Camp Rapidan/Dark Hollow Falls loop.  The group split into two sub-groups, one taking the fire road directly to Big Meadows and eliminating the loop to Camp Rapidan and the Mill Prong Trail that was used by the second sub-group.  This loop adds about 2 miles and 500 feet of elevation gain, for a total of 18 miles and 3000 feet.  I and two others went at a fairly brisk pace, and we were able to meet the other sub-group just at the point where the two routes converged.  From there we went to have lunch at the Big Meadows lodge.  It seemed rather odd to request a table for thirteen people when several of them had not yet arrived, but the wait staff appeared used to such a situation and displayed no surprised as others streamed in at various intervals after the first arrivals (the three of us plus the hike leader) were seated.  The foliage was less vivid than it had been in the area where I had been hiking last week and the temperature was colder than I expected, but eventually the clouds parted and it became a beautiful day during the second part of the hike.

There have been other tasks to attend to, connected with preparing directions for driving and hiking to the various hikes in November for both Capital and Wanderbirds, not to mention the upcoming hike I am lead this coming Sunday (the 23^rd), so I have not been following the news very closely this week. 

There are a few items of interest.  Elnaz Rekabi, a sports climber, competed in South Korea without wearing a headscarf.  She was clearly nervous after the event about what sort of reception she would get from the authorities upon her return to Texas – er, no, I mean Iran (I am always making that mistake).  Rebaki has been at some pains to reassure the public that her omission was quite unintentional.  To be sure, a hijab is not the most useful or convenient garment to wear when scrambling up a rock wall, so that her “forgetting” to don it after putting on her shoes and her gear may been done accidentally on purpose.  Hijabs are mandatory in Iran for women whenever they emerge from their homes.  Recently Mahsa Amini, a 22-year old, was detained by the country’s police merely for wearing her hijab “too loosely” – whatever that means – while venturing out of doors without one and eventually died in a hospital after being beaten repeatedly by them.  This episode sparked several protests, which have been cracked down upon severely; the death toll among the protestors is estimated to be at least 200.  Therefore, it is by no means surprising that Rebaki underwent, in her own words, “a lot of stress and tension” as she traveled back to Austin – there I go again!  I meant Tehran, of course.  It is not at all clear what has happened to her since her arrival in her homeland.  She was greeted by jubilant crowds celebrating her defiance of this repressive law, but after she entered a van and was driven away her whereabouts are currently unknown.

We have recently been having, if not exactly a baby boom, at any rate a “baby bump.”  More women became pregnant during the pandemic, chiefly because the shift from working in offices to working from home made child-rearing easier.  It is the first major reversal in declining U.S. fertility rates since 2007.  Pandemic relief funding may also have played a role.  Birth rates have gone up 6.2% by the end of 2021 for US-born mothers, relative to the pre-pandemic trend.  It will be interesting to see if the trend continues now that relief funding has been cut back.  For the moment, however, the findings are reassuring.

Today’s statistics as of 9:30 PM – # of cases worldwide: 631,411,347; # of deaths worldwide: 6,576,388; # of cases U.S.: 98,987,014; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,092,031.  Increases in cases and deaths still remain gratifyingly low compared with previous months.

Hiking in central Virginia, the individual hikes

10/7, Beagle Gap to Rockfish Gap and back, 11 miles, 1000 feet

I had not completed one last little bit of the Appalachian Trail in Shenandoah National Park.  Since the south entrance involved only a minor detour from the trip to the house we were renting, I decided to complete this segment.  Ironically, AD had the same idea and we actually met on the trail, when she was going north and I was heading south.  AD had merely a one-way hike, since she was being shuttled by RH.  I, on the other hand, was on my own, so my hike was a there-and-back.  The hike itself was not especially interesting.  The sole viewpoint (at the communications tower) was obstructed by clusters of trees.  But it was a lovely day and it was very pleasant to walk amid the foliage as it was just beginning to change color.

10/8, Rte. 621 to Rte. 630, 10.7 miles, 2400 feet

Most of the hikes I started with BM from one end of the route while AD, RH, and others started from the other, so that we could access cars at both ends of the segment and were not obliged to spend time on shuttling.  BM and I generally received the options with the greater amount of elevation gain.  On this hike the two groups met almost at the precise center of the segment, where we lunched together.  The route that BM and I used started with an ascent that lasted for four miles.  It never was very steep but it contained several short rocky patches that sometimes were a bit of a scramble.  Towards the summit we passed the Eastern Continental Divide.  There were many views along rock slabs on the north side of the ridgeline.  One part of the valley below displayed autumn foliage in full color, contrasting with the green-leafed slope above.  The second half of our hike contained several minor ascents, never lasting very long and not at all difficult.  We met two very pleasant women section-hikers, whom we were to see again on several of the subsequent hikes.  There were several curious stone structures close to the trail.  They could not be kilns or ovens, for they had no hollow area, and the rocks were too carefully fitted to one another to be stones discarded by farmers as they were plowing the land.  My guess is that they are some sort of burial mound, but it is only a guess on my part.  The final descent was easier than I anticipated; it contained several stone steps cut in to aid the hikers.  This was the coolest hike of the week, after which the weather became steadily warmer; but even on this day it was never cold and the sunny skies made the air seem warmer.

10/9, Rte. 632 to Rte.630, 8.3 miles, 2400 feet

The first half was a pleasant but average hike.  But the final few miles were more memorable.  We began by ascending about 2½ miles, a shorter ascent that the one we experienced yesterday, but somewhat steeper.  We met the same two section-hikers we had seen yesterday, after which we went along a rather steep descent to a shelter, where we had lunch.  From there we came to Sinking Creek Valley, where we saw lovely, far-ranging views of farmland flanked by mountains.  The overlooks were different from the ones usually seen from “balds” (mountain summits with few or no trees); the views are similarly expansive, but seen only a few feet above the fields instead of hundreds of feet above them. 

10/10, Rte. 632 to Rte. 635, 11.2 miles, 2300 feet

This hike was somewhat less enjoyable than the preceding ones.  BM and I started with two friends of his (they eventually turned back 3.7 miles into the hike) up an ascent that was fairly gradual.  But after it became relatively level there was a two-mile segment that was covered with rocks, almost as bad as some of the worst parts of northern Pennsylvania, especially as they were strewn with wet fallen leaves. Parts of the path were overgrown as well.  Then the trail became less rocky and led to the Wind Rock overlook, which provided 180-degree views of the valley below.  Again we met the two section-hikers, who were completing a period of backpacking and planning to return to their cars in the afternoon,  The final descent was quite steep for the first mile, but afterwards became more gradual. 

10/11, Rte. 635 to Groundhog Trail, 10.7 miles, 2300 feet

With this hike both AD and I completed the portion of the Appalachian Trail that runs through Virginia, nearly one-quarter of the entire trail.  But it was somewhat anti-climactic.  The beginning consisted of rolling ups and downs, followed by a very gradual ascent to the Peters Mountain ridgeline, with numerous switchbacks.  There were no overlooks to speak of.  The only highlight was an encounter with a herd of goats that obviously had belonged to a farm at one point.  They were quite bold in approaching me, and in any case wild goats are not native to the eastern American forests.  When they seemed to be coming too close I banged my hiking poles together to intimidate them with the clacking noise.  It worked; they turned and fled, going along the trail in front of me.  They would run on for a bit, then slow down, and as I started coming towards them along the trail they would run again.  The descend along the Groundhog Trail, which leads from the ridgeline to a parking area, was easier than I expected.

10/12, Groundhog Trail to Pearisburg, 15 miles, 2800 feet

On this hike five of us all went together, using shuttling to have cars at the beginning and end points.  AD, RH, and I had actually done this hike before, but it was several years ago and the trail has been slightly rerouted since that time – so at least we were assured.  It was difficult to see where any rerouting had taken place; possibly in the area at the summit of Peters Mountain, near the powerline.  The ascent along the Groundhog Trail contained nearly half of the total elevation gain for the hike.  Once we reached the ridgeline we went along minor ups and downs for six miles, eventually reaching the Ricefield shelter.  There were several views at Symms Gap Meadows and more in the vicinity of the communication tower, where the contours of the valley were highlighted by the bird’s-eye view of Pearisburg to the south and various unincorporated villages in West Virginia to the north.  After we lunched at the overlook close to the shelter we descended very gently through forest that contained autumn foliage at its peak.  A brief ascent to Hemlock Ridge broke up what could otherwise have been a monotonous continual downhill.  The only drawback was the last mile of the route, which went along a major traffic artery (Rte. 460) and the bridge over the New River—noisy, with an abundance of exhaust fumes from the trucks on the road.  After going over the river the trail returned, thank Heaven, to quiet forest canopy.  The five of us covered the 15 miles in 5¾, and we spent over 15 minutes for our lunch break, which meant that our average moving speed was about 2.75 MPH for the entirety of the hike.

10/13, Hanging Point Observatory, 2 miles, 850 feet

Most of us were inclined to take things easy, partly because the forecast originally called for rain (which never materialized).  AD, CB, and I went to the Hanging Point Observatory in the morning.  The hike is brief, slightly over a mile in each direction to the tower and back, but rich in results; the views from the tower are spending.  At the tower we met “Mischief,” a bilateral foot amputee who has hiked the entire Appalachian Trail and who intends to hike dozens of other trails for a total of over 25,000 miles.  I will not recount his story in detail, since he has several websites of his own that describe his experiences; suffice it to say that his feet became frostbitten after an accident in 2019, forcing him to undergo operations that removed portions of both feet.  Doctors told him that he would never be able to walk again, but he has managed not merely to resume walking on paved ground to hike hundreds of miles on trails, a truly amazing study in sheer determination.

In the afternoon CB and I went to Lost World Caverns, a cave filled with stalactites and stalagmites, and rock walls with intricate natural filigree patterns and many unique formations.  The “Bridal Veil,” a column of sparkling white calcite, is perhaps the most striking of these.  We liked it much better than Luray; it is self-guided, which meant that we were spared the annoyance of a guide flooding us with irrelevancies, and there were no gimmicky artifacts such as the famous (or should I say notorious?) Stalacpipe Organ.  The tour contained various placards alongside the main trail winding through the cavern providing brief explanations of the factors that created the unique formations which visitors could read at their leisure; outside of these aids, the beauties of the rock wonderland were allowed to speak for themselves. 

Hiking in central Virginia – The renewal of COVID as a state of emergency – Nemesis overtakes Alex Jones – Evening statistics

I have just returned from completing a section of the Appalachian Trail in central Virginia.  As with all such trips organized by AD and RH, we stayed in a house in a rural location convenient for driving to parking areas for the AT.  As always, we relied on ourselves for meals rather than going to restaurants and we dined very well indeed.  The description of the individual hikes will have to be deferred to a later entry (it will take a while to write), but there are a few general characteristics that can be noted.  We had splendid weather throughout the week, most of the days clear and sunny, and all of them moderate in temperature.  The sole day that had rain in the forecast eventually turned out to be merely cloudy at times.  The section of the trail that we covered – from Rte. 621to Pearisburg – is not an especially striking portion of the AT, but our hikes coincided with the beginning of the peak autumn foliage.  The colors are more vivid in that area than they will probably turn out here, since the valleys and peaks we went through have had the optimum combination of warm (but not hot) days and cool nights.  The house in which we stayed was by far the best-equipped of any in our experience, including a particularly well-stocked kitchen.  There were only two bathrooms, but each bedroom contained a washstand as well.  It was located in the Greenbrier Valley, and every morning and evening we had beautiful views of the range containing Peter’s Mountain.  The drives to the parking areas frequently involved roads that had to accommodate the contours of the ridges they passed over, and they could be narrow and winding as a result.  But the roads are well-maintained and the majority of them are paved.  The group as a whole covered about 55 miles in all.  For AD and myself, the hikes that we took during the trip completed hiking the entirety of the Appalachian Trail that runs through Virginia – and it should be borne in mind that Virginia contains nearly 550 miles of the AT, about one-quarter of the AT total mileage.

A significant COVID-related event occurred yesterday.  The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) renewed the declaration of COVID as a state of emergency.  The next time of re-evaluation of COVID’s status will occur in January.  This seems a prudent measure to take, in view of the fact that winter is approaching, and COVID-related deaths have spiked dramatically during the preceding two winters.  In all probability any spike that occurs this coming winter will be considerably less damaging, but it is just as well to wait until the most dangerous season has passed and to assess its effects before declaring that the pandemic is over.  Even as it is, nearly all of the states have ended the state of emergency status individually.  After October 31^st, only California, Kansas, and West Virginia will maintain the state of emergency that has been renewed by HHS. 

It will be seen that defining the end of the COVID pandemic is a matter of some difficulty.  Daniel Defoe’s Journal of the Plague Year, which inspired the title for this record, described the Great Plague of London.  Bubonic plague had been endemic in European cities, but it still broke out into massive epidemics from time to time.  This particular one caused over 100,000 deaths in London, about a quarter of the city’s population.  However, when it ended, it proved to be the last major outbreak of plague that England was to experience – hence the note of finality towards the end of Defoe’s journal:

“However, it pleased God, by the continuing of the winter weather, so to restore the health of the city that by February following we reckoned the distemper quite ceased, and then we were not so easily frighted again.”

We already know that COVID is not in the least likely to become “quite ceased” and that in all probability we (not merely Americans but the global population at large) will have to be resigned to a certain amount of debilitating disease and loss of life on an annual basis, just as we do now with several diseases such as malaria and the flu.  So when does a disease transition from a state of emergency to a merely endemic one?  Perhaps we will learn the answer this coming winter.

Alex Jones, after having been found liable for suppressing evidence of his defaming the victims of the Sandy Hook massacre, has just undergone a trial assessing the damages to be awarded to the families of the murdered school-children whom he traduced.  The jury handed down 15 individual awards that ranged from $28.8 million to $120 million, totaling $965 million in compensatory damages.  And this amount does not include the punitive damages, which have as yet to be determined.  Some post-trial motions undoubtedly will be held, and a court has the option of reducing the amount to what it considers to be reasonable damages, but the likelihood is that even in such a scenario Jones will still be liable for hundreds of millions of dollars.  His assets total to less than a third of the amount he has been ordered to pay, so he may very well be reduced to a subsistence lifestyle for many years to come – a fitting climax to a story of a fortune acquired by a career of years of lying and chicanery with the deliberate intention of tormenting relatives mourning the victims of murder.  And so the whirligig of time brings in his revenges!

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 629,276,649; # of deaths worldwide: 6,569,648; # of cases U.S.: 98,811,369; # of deaths; U.S.: 1,090,287.  For the current season, at any rate, COVID now appears containable.  The mortality rate is well under 1%, both nationally and globally.