Journal of the Plague Year, COVID-19 Version

In the Great North Mountain region – Under-reporting of the virus – Latest developments in Ukraine – Evening statistics

Today’s hike with the Vigorous Hikers was beautiful and one which took me upon trails I had never seen before, although I’ve hiked in the region for years.  We went along the Cedar Creek Trail and the Bread Road up the ridge of Great North Mountain to the Little Sluice Mountain Trail, and then down via the Bread Road to the Little Stony Creek Trail, all of which were entirely out of my knowledge.  I have indeed gone over the Little Sluice Mountain Trail many times and have passed by the intersection with the Bread Road (which was, as the name indicates, originally a road used for transporting food when the area was inhabited by loggers), but the Bread Road itself I have never been on before.  The portion that descends from the Little Sluice Mountain Trail to the Little Stony Creek Trail is not even an official trail on the maps, but it is quite reasonably well-maintained nonetheless.  Afterwards the hike fell into more familiar lines, continuing up along the Little Stony Creek Trail and eventually returning via the Tuscacora Trail, with a side excursion to the White Rocks Overlook, which peers down into the western portion of the Shenandoah Valley.  The weather was cool in the morning but not cold and eventually it went up to the high 40s in the higher elevations and to the 50s as we descended.  Like many late-winter hikes it was rather miry in spots but not unduly so, especially considering the amount of rain we received last hike.  It covered about 3600 feet of ascent but the gradients were gradual and it did not feel unduly strenuous. 

Officially the number of Americans who have been infected by the coronavirus is something over 80 million, about 24% of the nation’s population.  But the actual figure may be closer to 140 million, or 43% of the population.  The omicron variant caused about 500,000 cases of the virus per day at the beginning of the year, according to data from 72,000 blood samples in January.   In a sense the news is reassuring:  the virus has been asymptomatic in a larger percentage of cases than has been previously supposed.  It does mean, however, that the disease is even more widespread than the official figures would indicate.

In this connection I may mention a story I heard from MG on the hike today.  Her brother and his wife are currently housing their two grandsons, young men in their twenties.  One of them fell ill with COVID and the grandparents rapidly came down with the virus in turn.  The grandparents had been vaccinated and boosted but the two grandchildren, it seems, have not.  It is unclear whether the grandparents were aware of this when they offered their grandsons a home.  The grandsons profess to be extremely religious but they seem to be unaware of the injunction of loving one’s neighbor as oneself.  I daresay they would be quite surprised if they were to hear themselves accused of being guilty of heartlessness by exposing those who offered them shelter to infection on their own account.  The fact that the two elder residents of the house were vaccinated prevented them from being ill to the point of requiring treatment in an ICU; but the case of the grandmother, at any rate, was severe, and the road to her recovery was slow and painful.

At today’s meeting of the UN Human Rights Council, diplomats staged a walkout from a speech by Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s Foreign Minister.  This diplomatic snub presented a dramatic contrast to the standing ovation in reaction to a speech by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Russia, indeed, is showing a strange hesitation in its attacks.  Its deployment of its air force has been far more restrained than military experts had predicted.  The Russian air force appears uncoordinated with ground troop formations.  Multiple Russian columns of troops have been sent forward beyond the reach of their own air defense cover, leaving them vulnerable to attack from Ukrainian forces, including those newly equipped with Turkish drones and U.S. and British anti-tank missiles.  The military convoy north of Kyiv now extends nearly 40 miles.  But it is less formidable than it appears.  Some Russian forces are surrendering to Ukrainian forces without any resistance, being demoralized by lack of fuel and supplies.  It appears, also, that many of the soldiers were hastily conscripted youths who were never even told to expect to be in combat before the war was declared and who have had little or no training. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 438,395,601; # of deaths worldwide: 5,983,116; # of cases U.S.: 80,697,287; # of deaths; U.S.: 977,386.

The war in Ukraine – Transitioning from pandemic to endemic phase – Evening statistics

There is little news today of importance—or much, depending one’s point of view, for the war in Ukraine is being waged as fiercely as ever and its ramifications are likely to upset the nations of Europe for several months to come.  The Russians are already feeling the effects of the sanctions; the ruble has gone down by a quarter of its value and interest rates have been set to 20% to keep it stable.  At least half of Russia’s estimated $640 billion hard currency stockpile is now frozen.  The Russian public has made a rush to withdraw their savings and all flights to European nations, Canada, and the U.S. have been canceled, since Aeroflot has been banned from these nations’ airways.   Even Switzerland, which prides itself upon its neutrality and its willingness to accept capital of the dirtiest description imaginable, has joined in the European sanctions, including those against the personal accounts of Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and of Putin himself.  A sensible man under such conditions would have cut his losses and retreated from his belligerency, which has brought him nothing but opprobrium and already has cost the lives of many Russian soldiers.  But Putin is not a sensible man; he is fixated on his dream of restoring the Russian empire, and the re-absorption of the Ukraine is the first step in the process.  The fact that a mere 44 million Ukrainians violently oppose such a measure is, of course, a trifle beneath his consideration.  It is possible, moreover, that he has been overdosing on steroids and that his mental health has been affected accordingly.  A certain recent puffiness of face and his insistence on extreme isolation (steroids can make one more susceptible to infectious diseases, including COVID) makes such a supposition probable. 

But as the war abroad intensifies, COVID is beating a retreat.  The number of new infections today in the U.S. was barely over 32,000 and the death toll was little over 700 – a startlingly low figure after what we have been seeing just a few weeks ago, when we were losing over 2000 per day. 

The Biden administration has shown a reluctance to declare victory over the pandemic at this point, quite an understandable reluctance in view of the upsurge of the delta variant shortly after Biden announced “independence” of the virus on July 4^th of last year.  But health experts seem to be in agreement that we are transitioning towards the endemic phase.  The American public is visibly less worried about the disease than it has been for many months.  Nearly a month ago Biden offered 500 million free testkits to be available for Americans, at the rate of 4 per household.  As of this date, more than half of them have not been claimed. 

This means that, when we are definitely in the endemic stage once and for all, the journal will wind down, possibly in a matter of weeks.  As is the case of many journals of this nature, it will leave several questions unanswered.  Will Donald Trump’s elaborate web of chicanery and treachery unravel at last?  Will the narrator’s goal of completing the Virginia and New Jersey portions of the Appalachian Trail this year be realized?  Will our political parties resolve during the upcoming elections to inject some new blood into their organizations and revitalize those two geriatric clubs that currently constitute the two house chambers?  Will Rudy Giuliani obtain a bottle of hair dye that is truly colorfast? 

All of these pressing issues, I fear, will have to be left to reporters in the future once the journal comes to an end.  I began logging my impressions on March 20, 2020, when the virus was just beginning to emerge and it seems possible that the pandemic will be a pandemic no longer by as early as the second anniversary of that date.  The pandemic will undoubtedly leave its mark and certain aspects of national life will be impacted for many years to come.  But it appears that we are slowly and painfully returning to normalcy at last. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:436,871,790; # of deaths worldwide: 5,967,624; # of cases U.S.: 80,647,343; # of deaths; U.S.: 975,150.

Jury trial for a rioter – Sanctions against Russia – Mardi Gras in New Orleans – Hikes for the weekend – Reactions to diminishing mask mandates – Evening statistics

Guy Wesley Reffitt, one of the rioters who attacked the Capitol on January 6^th of last year, has been charged with several offences that could possibly subject him to years in prison: obstructing Congress, interfering with law enforcement, entering the Capitol complex with a weapon, and obstruction of justice.  Over 750 rioters have been arrested and many of these have been sentenced, but Reffitt’s case is the first that will be tried by a jury.  The case will undoubtedly be a tumultuous one.  Prosecutors intend to call as witnesses, among others, two of Reffitt’s children, who have alleged that he threatened to shoot them if they cooperated with the federal investigation. 

“Picking a jury could be a very difficult process in a case that literally unfolded in the jurors’ backyard,” said Jill Huntley Taylor, a Philadelphia-based jury consultant and trial strategist. “The judge and the attorneys will be looking for people who already have made up their minds. They will likely want to know their political views, whether they posted anything about the event on social media.”

The concerns of the legal representatives are undoubtedly justified.  I myself, for instance, would certainly be disqualified if I were to be considered for jury duty in this case.  I have long ago made up my mind that the participants of the riot on January 6^th are guilty of treason and I have posted numerous entries of this journal that have elaborated such a point of view.  But in all fairness even offenders such as Reffitt should have the opportunity to be tried by a jury that has not determined his guilt in advance.  The riot has undoubtedly polarized the country; everyone is either passionate about the participants’ condemnation or passionate about their justification.  It will be a difficult task for both prosecutors and defense attorneys to obtain jurors who will be quite objective about the matter. 

Sanctions against Russia continue to intensify.  The EU has banned Russian airlines from its airspace.  It will also purchase and deliver weapons to the Ukraine, and has banned various pro-Kremlin media outlets.  Turkish officials termed Russia’s invasion as “war,” a categorization that could lead Ankara to close down the Turkish straits to Russian warships, as Ukraine had requested earlier this week.  Russians are bracing for an economic downfall tomorrow when the stock market opens, as the ruble has already begun to fall precipitously in value.

And in the meantime more and more Americans are reveling in the gradual return to pre-pandemic conditions.  Preparations for Mardi Gras, which had to be canceled in New Orleans last year, are underway.  Daily parades have been ongoing since February 23^rd.  The parades have been shorter than usual due to shortages in the New Orleans police department, but they have not diminished in number.  Crowds have been gathering on Bourbon Street, and restaurants and bars are doing a thriving trade.  New Orleans, incidentally, still requires people to wear masks indoors and the city has been handing out COVID testkits to residents as the celebrations ramp up, but the celebrations themselves have been unimpeded, in contrast to the absence of activity the previous year.

And on a more modest scale, this is true on a personal level as well.  I have mentioned that I led a hike yesterday through the Hazel River area of Shenandoah National Park, this one for the Capital Hiking Club.  We encountered many others on the trails, which are by no means the most widely used, even though the day was rather chilly and overcast, at any rate in the morning.  I was supposed to lead a hike in this area two weeks ago for the Vigorous Hikers, but the stream crossings proved to be so icy and hazardous that two hikers got wet after slipping on the rocks and I was forced to cut the hike short.  I could not in all conscience lead them for over a dozen miles in sub-freezing temperatures after that occurred.  But the crossings yesterday, though not without challenges, were quite manageable.  The hike is not remarkable for its panoramic views, but glimpses booth of Buck Hollow and the Hazel River valley could be seen throughout, particularly on the White Rocks Trail.

Today I went with RS and two others in Brambleton Regional Park, a delightful circuit around a reservoir, the largest body of water in Northern Virginia.  The day was clear and considerably warmer than yesterday, the water was of a deep marine blue, and numerous waterfowl, including gulls and various raptors, flew overhead perpetually.  Towards the end we came across a feeder on which a bluebird was perched, as well as a series of beehives in an apiary close to the trailhead.  Here too we encountered numerous hikers on the trail, and bikers as well – not surprisingly, for it was a beautiful day and the trail is within easy access to those who may not care to drive the distances required to reach the Blue Ridge Mountains or the Massanuttens.

During this hike we spoke about the easing of the mask mandates, all of us agreeing that it was prudent to continue to wear masks in stores and other indoor encounters even though such mandates are no longer recommended for the counties in which we live (the hikers in the group included members of Loudoun, Fairfax, and Montgomery Counties, as well as DC, all of which are currently rated as low-risk).  “I intend to wear a mask in stores from now on,” one of the hikers said, “no matter how low the COVID levels are.”  As I have noted, many in various East Asian cities have worn masks in stores and even out of doors in cities such as Beijing, where the amount of pollution and the fierce dust storms impose an additional strain on the lungs, years before the pandemic started.  So my fellow-hiker’s resolution is by no means as paranoid as it might sound. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:435,652,184; # of deaths worldwide: 5,967,370; # of cases U.S.: 80,566,788; # of deaths; U.S.: 973,052.

Visit from relatives – Example of side effects of the pandemic – The CDC’s new mask mandate guidelines – The ongoing invasion of Ukraine and international reactions – Backlash among Republicans against Trump’s support for Putin – Evening statistics

My cousins took a brief vacation in Charleston, and on their return to New York they stayed overnight with me.  We spent a good deal of time “catching up” with each other, as the phrase goes.  But also during our conversation they made some observations that reflect various changes that the pandemic has made in our lives.  For instance, they had been obliged to purchase a new car because the one they had previously owned had reached the end of its usefulness.  I remarked that I had been thinking of replacing my car, which has well over 150,000 miles on it and is showing its age, but had hesitated to do so because the current conditions did not seem favorable to me for making new purchases of that kind.  They told me that my instinct was quite correct; they had been forced to acquire a new car by circumstance, but the price they paid was higher than it would have been under normal conditions, when the supply chain of auto parts is running more smoothly. 

We talked also of mask mandates.  In Northern Virginia and in much of New York City they are still observed voluntarily and fairly rigorously.  But in South Carolina, they said, no one wore masks – in the stores, in the restaurants, and certainly nowhere out of doors.  For that matter, the CDC has revised its mask policy fairly dramatically.  Over 62% of the U.S. counties have been reclassified as low-risk or medium-risk, which means that mask mandates are no longer necessary in these locations.  The reclassified counties contain nearly three-quarters of the American population.  Masks are still required for public transportation and for air travel.  All of the counties surrounding DC are rated as low-risk, as is DC itself.  Nonetheless I am not jettisoning my facemasks just yet. 

I led a hike today in the Hazel Mountain area of Shenandoah National Park.  One of the hikers was a woman from the Czech Republic who is staying with her family in the U.S. for a few years.  She mentioned that various friends and relatives in the Czech Republic have driven to the Ukrainian border to take in refugees and transport them to safe havens.  The Ukrainians themselves are putting up a determined resistance.  At this point 198 civilians have been killed, including three children, and another 1,115 civilians have been injured, including 33 children.  One unnamed Pentagon official has reported that the Russian advance has slowed down because of the strength of the resistance and that the Russian troops are “increasingly frustrated by their lack of momentum.” 

The European nations seem to be rallying to some extent against Russia’s shattering of the long peace that the continent has enjoyed since the end of World War II.  France has impounded a Russian ship found in the English Channel that is suspected of carrying cargo falling under the new sanctions against Russia.  Germany, the Netherlands, the UK, and the U.S. are sending arms to the Ukraine. The U. S., EU, and UK agreed to put in place crippling sanctions on the Russian financial sector, including a block on its access to the global financial system and, for the first time, restrictions on its central bank.  Key Russian banks have been blocked out of the SWIFT financial messaging system, which daily moves countless billions of dollars around more than 11,000 banks and other financial institutions around the world.  This move has been designed, as one official put it, to cause the ruble to undergo “free fall” and to promote soaring inflation into the Russian economy.  Previously announced sanctions have already had an impact on Russia, bringing its currency to its lowest level against the dollar in history and giving its stock market the worst week on record.

Many Russians themselves have been protesting against the invasion, including Ksenia Sobchak, a socialite who is rumored to be Putin’s goddaughter.  Another prominent protestor is Lisa Peskova, daughter of Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, who posted to Instagram in Russian, “No to war.” Over 3000 people so far have been detained for marching in the streets to denounce the war. 

Finally, Americans and Canadians have made an unprecedented sacrifice:  liquor stores in both countries have discarded all supplies of Russian vodka. 

The Ukrainian invasion may produce one unexpected benefit.  Trump’s unwavering support of Putin – who is, after all, his kindred spirit, indeed almost his soulmate – and the willingness of his groupies to reinforce such a show of solidarity has alienated even other Republicans.  It may prod them to unshackle themselves at last from this renegade, this crony of the rejuvenator of the “Evil Empire” that Reagan had worked so tirelessly to destroy.  One example is a self-described “huge Tucker Carlson fan,” Maryland pastor Jim Boothby.  He spent this past Thursday taking calls from a fellow pastor in Ukraine, where many of his own congregants have roots.  “We got a phone call yesterday from the bishop of the church there who said: ‘we’re trying to buy weapons to protect our wives and children,’” he recalled.  “He said after they couldn’t buy weapons, they went to the stores to try to buy baseball bats, and they were sold out. So screw Tucker Carlson, I don’t give a shit. This is 2022 – these people don’t want to be owned, dominated, and directed by Russia.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  434,656,281; # of deaths worldwide: 5,962,992; # of cases U.S.: 80,558,248; # of deaths; U.S.: 972,835.

Russia invades the Ukraine – Diminishing mask mandates – Incredible moderation of an American senator – Evening statistics

Russia has begun its invasion of the Ukraine.  It has been building up for weeks, with Putin sable-rattling in increasingly belligerent terms over the past several days, but even though some attempt at pre-emptive action was taken by the U.S. and the European Union, it is difficult to prevent a country with Russia’s resources to wage war when it has a mind to do so.  Already 137 Ukrainians have been killed and 316 wounded, including all border guards on the Zmiinyi Island in the Odessa region, which was taken over by Russians.  Putin has denied plans to occupy the Ukraine, but he has made it clear that he sees no reason for it to exist as an independent country.  The European nations have issued condemnations of the invasion, but it is unclear what they can do to retaliate.  The EU is the world’s largest importer of natural gas, which accounts for about 25% of its energy.  Its North Sea reserves have dried up and it cannot rely totally on solar and wind power, which are intermittent.  This means that it is reliant on Russia, which provides 41% of its natural gas power.  NATO has already declared that it will not lend support to the Ukraine, which is not a member of the alliance. 

Indoor mask mandates are steadily disappearing.  Soon the only state that will have one is Hawaii.  Puerto Rico is also taking a more cautious approach, with no immediate plans to lift theirs.  But the mandates are either gone or scheduled to be rescinded soon in Alaska and all of the contiguous 48 states.  The in-flight and airport mask requirements of the Transportation Security Administration are now slated to lapse on March 18^th, although it is possible that it may be extended.  The CDC has indicated that their guidelines for masks will be changing.  Currently the CDC recommends wearing a mask in public indoor settings in any county that has “high” or “substantial” risk of COVID spread.  The U.S. contains approximately 3200 counties, and only 13 of these are rated as having “low” or “moderate” risk.  But the infection rates continue to fall, and the number of counties that are no longer rated as high-risk may increase substantially as early as next week.

In a truly amazing development, Senator Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma is expected to announce his intention of stepping down from office, even though he was elected to a six-year term in 2020.  But this sprightly youth (of eighty-seven) has recently missed more votes than usual and he has indicated to reporters in December his desire to terminate his political career, on the grounds that his wife is ill.  Naturally the party leaders (Republican in this instance, but Democrats would behave in precisely the same way in such a case) will attempt to dissuade Inhofe from such a resolution, since he has not yet completed his first century and, melancholy to relate, is not even a nonagenarian.  Clearly the American public must not be fobbed off by a replacement four or five decades his junior, nor should the Senate be polluted by the presence of a substitute toddler of sixty years or so – at any rate, not until members of both parties come to realize that it is possible to be a Senator without necessarily being senescent.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  431,654,620; # of deaths worldwide: 5,946,845; # of cases U.S.: 80,446,512; # of deaths; U.S.: 969,602. 

Archaeological finds – The truck convoy on the move – Abortion bill in Oklahoma – Evening statistics

A shrine has been discovered in Jordan.  It is approximately 9000 years old.  The ritual complex was found in a Neolithic campsite near large structures known as “desert kites,” or mass traps that are believed to have been used to corral wild gazelles for slaughter.  There are many such traps scattered across the deserts of the Middle East.  For most of these only the two long stone walls converging toward an enclosure are discernable, whereas nearly everything in this particular complex of buildings is intact:  two carved standing stones bearing anthropomorphic figures, one of them accompanied by a representation of the desert kite, as well as an altar, hearth, marine shells, and a miniature model of the gazelle trap.  It is an exciting find but also a sobering one in some ways.  It is a reminder that religions, like all other human artifacts, come and go.  The religion whose rites were performed in this shrine predates every religion currently practiced on the globe by several millennia and no doubt was looked upon by its adherents as eternal, but it has vanished long since and now we have only a few tantalizing hints as to how its rites were conducted. 

Another major find occurred in Great Britain, where an elaborate Roman mosaic nearly 2000 years old adorned with flowers and geometric patterns was found in at a building site near the Shard in Southwark.  It is the largest mosaic found in the London area in over half a century and a prime example of the heyday of art in Roman Britain.  It appears to have covered the floor of a dining room.  The rest of the building is still being excavated, but several rooms and corridors surrounding a central courtyard may eventually be restored.

Bob Bolus, who owns a truck parts and towing business in Scranton, is one of the organizers for the convoy currently headed towards Washington.  He said that his goal is to organize a “giant boa constrictor” around the DC Metro area with his separate convoy that will paralyze traffic.  No one seems to have informed him that his goal is already being accomplished every single weekday by that baneful group known as “rush-hour commuters.”  In any case, he does not appear to have the following he has boasted about.  He claimed that 25 trucks were joining him from New Jersey, but the video of his fleet shows a single 18-wheeler – his own – followed by four or five SUVs and pickup trucks.  Authorities here are not taking any chances, however; about 700 National Guard personnel will be deployed to help control traffic at designated traffic posts and points leading to the Capitol.

Greg Treat, the Oklahoma Senate President Pro Tempore, has sponsored a bill that would ban abortions throughout the state 30 days after pregnancy.  Most women do not receive confirmation of pregnancy until 5½  weeks into term.  In addition, Oklahoma has a grand total of four abortion clinics, which have been overwhelmed by women from neighboring Texas after abortions have become virtually unobtainable in that state.  However, Oklahoman women coping with this dilemma will undoubtedly be continually provided with sage advice and counsel by Senator Treat speaking from his long history of carrying to term myriads of . . . er, surely four or five at the very least . . . maybe only one or two after all  . . . well, no children, actually, since he is a man and therefore unable to ovulate at all. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  429,781,998; # of deaths worldwide: 5,935,581; # of cases U.S.: 80,366,697; # of deaths; U.S.: 966,393. 

The pandemic appears to be entering its final phase – Stern measures in Uganda – The upcoming People’s Convoy – Evening statistics

The number of new coronavirus cases around the world fell 21% in the last week.  It is the third consecutive week of declining COVID cases.  The number of new COVID deaths fell 8% to about 67,000 worldwide, the first time that weekly deaths have fallen since early January.   The WHO’s Europe chief Dr. Hans Kluge said the region is now entering a “plausible endgame” for the virus and said there is now a “singular opportunity” for authorities to end the acute phase of the pandemic.   There are still areas in which the virus is increasing.  Cases have risen in Africa, Hong Kong, and the island nations of the Western Pacific. 

A proposed bill would subject anti-vaxxers in Uganda to a fine of 4 million Ugandan shillings (about $1137, approximately what an average wage-earner receives in a 3-month period) or six months in prison.  Uganda contains about 45 million people and up to this point has received 16 million vaccinations.  It has endured severe lockdowns over the past two years, although restrictions have been lifted during the past month.  About 15 million Ugandan students were shut out of schools during this period, the longest educational lockdown endured by any nation on account of the pandemic. 

Trudeau has taken action at last and the protestors who have been harassing residents of Ottawa for weeks on end have been dispersed by police in riot gear.  Tamara Lich, a key organizer of the protest, is now in prison and has been denied bail.  A similar protest convoy is now en route to DC, where it is to be hoped that our federal government will show more backbone than Canada’s.   The organizers of this so-called People’s Convoy claim that they do not intend to disrupt roads or bridges as the protestors did in Canada.   But officials are worried about the possibility of a replay of the events last year on January 6^th and they are making preparations accordingly.  The D.C. Metropolitan Police has added 500 officers to its deployment for every day in early March, while the U.S. Capitol Police and the municipal government has requested the Department of Defense to call in the National Guard for assistance as well.  

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  427,953,228; # of deaths worldwide: 5,923,983; # of cases U.S.: 80,263,693; # of deaths; U.S.: 963,303. 

A brief vacation – Hikes in southern Shenandoah National Park and the Trout Pond Valley – Continued decline in COVID infections and deaths – Evening statistics

AD and RH rented a house in rural Virginia for themselves and ten others.  The house location is about a 90-minute drive from Fairfax, but the area becomes quite rural as one gets further west from DC.  The twelve of us stayed in a large house with numerous bedrooms and a comfortably large sitting room.  The house was in the vicinity of a local museum that focuses on the floats used in American parades.  It was closed for the season, as was a huge yellow barn across the road that is rented out for events with a large number of people, such as weddings and family reunions.  The house probably would be less comfortably during the height of the season, but as it was, the place was quiet and serene, and we were not troubled by contending with other cars for space in the museum’s parking area, which is used by the house visitors as well.

We arrived on Friday evening, hiked on Saturday and Sunday, and dined and breakfasted from Friday evening to Monday morning.  As is generally the case in such excursions, we ate quite elaborately.  We always attempt to accommodate the vegetarians in our group, but if the phrase “vegetarian dinner” conjures up a picture of lean and skeletal persons gnawing on a couple of raw carrots with the drinks supplied by a water jug – you can dismiss that image.  On Friday, for instance, we had eggplant lasagna, a rather complicated dish of tofu and cauliflower seasoned with cumin and various other spices, salad with celery, carrots, sunflower seeds, and avocado in addition to the romaine lettuce, crusty bread, lots of fresh oranges and grapefruit, gourmet cheeses, and plenty of desserts, all washed down with vintage wines provided chiefly by CB, the “sommelier” among our group.  We dined heartily, drank deeply, and spent over two hours together at the dining table, eating and drinking and conversing; and that pretty much set the pattern for the evenings that followed.  Breakfasts were also elaborate, with various casseroles, breads, fruits, etc.

These are the hikes in which I participated over the long weekend:

2/18, Appalachian Trail, Ivy Creek Overlook to Simmons Gap and back, 7½ miles, 2100 feet.  This hike was a sort of “warm-up” hike that I did on my own.  It was a brisk winter day, in the mid-thirties and quite windy, but reasonably sheltered once I got off of Skyline Drive.  As I drove to Shenandoah National Park there were some clouds in the sky, but on the higher elevations it was quite clear.  The hike has no set views, but at this season one sees glimpses of the Big Run valley below through the clinks between the boles and branches of the trees. 

2/19, AT/Patterson Ridge Trail/Brown Mountain Trail/Rocky Mountain Trail, 10 miles, 3000 feet.  I have led a similar hike for the vigorous hikers, except that on that occasion we went in a counter-clockwise direction and used the Big Run Trail and Big Run Portal Trails instead of the Patterson Ridge, which makes for a somewhat longer hike.  But this variant provides most of the longer hike’s features, descending into the lovely Ivy Creek gorge and meandering through the Big Run valley, which contains the largest run withn the park itself.  As with the preceding day, it was quite windy, and even down in the valley we were less shielded from the wind than I had expected.  But it never was bitingly cold and the skies were sunny and clear, so that as temperatures rose in the middle of the day it was necessary to take off a layer of clothing.

2/20, Wolf Gap there-and-back to Tibbet Knob and to Big Schloss

Wolf Gap is a popular recreation area, and even in winter it can get quite crowded.  We arrived there relatively early and parked without difficulty.  When we completed our first there-and-back, the one to Tibbet Knob, the parking area was quite full.  The trail to Tibbet Knob is slightly over 3 miles round trip.  It begins with a gradual ascent to a viewpoint that overlooks Mill Mountain, then it descends slightly, flatters out for a short distance, and then steadily ascends to the knob itself.  To get to the top of the knob one must navigate two rock scrambles, no more than 30 yards long.  In this case they were complicated by ice encrustations on some of the rocks, but these were easily overcome with a little patience.  From the summit of the knob one looks directly into the vast sweep of the Trout Pond Valley, with views of Big Schloss to the east and the ridgeline of Long Mountain to the west. 

After returning to Wolf Gap we went along the Mill Mountain Trail to Big Schloss, where we had lunch.  Big Schloss I have already mentioned in previous entries; it is a very popular hike and we were not surprised to encounter several others on top of the rock outcropping at its summit.  Some of these turned out to be friends of MB from the Mountain Club of Maryland (the same club that organizes the Hike Across Maryland, which covers the 41 miles of the Appalachian Trail that run through Maryland in a single day).  MB herself had never been there before, and she was all but overwhelmed with the spectacular views from the apex. 

Afterwards some of us went further.  A few went to the junction with the Cutoff Trail before turning back (about one mile from Big Schloss) but I went further to the Perry Overlook, which is two additional miles each way.  The there-and-back hike to Big Schloss is about 4½ miles, so with the additional 2 miles in each direction and the Tibbet Knob hike I covered 11½ miles in all.  The elevation gain, however, was less than that of yesterday, perhaps about 2500 feet in all.  The weather was two or three degrees lower than the temperatures of the preceding day, but much less windy.

2/21, AT, Smith Roach Gap to Simmons Gap and back, 9½ miles, 1600 feet.  I have completed most of the Appalachian Trail that runs through Virginia.  The portion that goes through Shenandoah National Park I have covered mainly through hikes with the Wanderbirds and various other clubs, including two 14-mile hikes along the southernmost portion of the trail in the park.  But I can’t quite remember whether I’ve ever covered the area between Swift Run Gap and the Ivy Creek Overlook, so I am going over it this year to be on the safe side.  The segment I did today was not familiar to me at all, so it may well have been the first time I’ve been on it.  It contained a few ascents, not unusually steep but quite long.  As with the hike I did on Friday, one catches glimpses of the valleys on either side of the ridge through the trees; in addition, there is a viewpoint down to Bacon Hollow.  A small mountain community lies in the hollow, which gives an idea of the scale of the distance from which one is gazing above.

As often happens during such excursions I paid little attention to the news and I have not even been collecting daily statistics.  It is clear, however, from the statistics I obtained this evening, that the rate of infection is steadily declining.  The daily average of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. fell below 2,000 for the first time in nearly a month over the weekend.  The daily average of COVID-19 cases has fallen to 103,000 per day, the lowest average since early December.  Since the country’s peak in early January, the average of new infections in the U.S. has dropped by 87%.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  426,240,243; # of deaths worldwide: 5,908,945; # of cases U.S.: 80,145,282; # of deaths; U.S.: 960,157. 

February weather – Increasing COVID immunity – The path to normalcy – Evening statistics

Spring is entering its long flirtation with the mid-Atlantic region, coquettishly dangling its charms and then withdrawing them.  Crocuses and hellebore (sometimes called “Lenten roses”) are showing their first blooms.  It was in the 60s today, but we may be getting another snowstorm next week.  Even during days with high temperatures the nights are still cold, with temperatures expected to dip below 20 degrees on Saturday evening.  In short, we are having typical late-winter weather.  Over the past few years we have had warmer weather than normal, so many people have been complaining about the unusually cold winter this year – but the fact is, what we are experiencing for this year is far more typical of the winters in this area than, say, the winter of 2021.

A study from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimated that 73% of Americans have immunity from the omicron variant, either via previous infection or from vaccination, and that that number could rise to 80% by mid-March.  This means, however, that about 80 million Americans are still vulnerable.  In addition, more than seven million immuno-compromised adults in the U.S. may never have strong immunity and tens of million more with at least one medical condition puts them at greater risk of serious COVID infections. 

Despite these risks, Dr. Fauci has announced that the time has come for the nation to start “inching” back to normality, i.e., conditions as they were before the pandemic began.  “There is no perfect solution to this,” he added.  More than a quarter of the population is still vulnerable, but at this stage the disease is starting to appear containable.  The current seven-day daily average of COVID-19 cases shows a decrease of about 40% from the previous week and hospital admissions fell about 28%. 

Today’s statistics as of 10:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  420,165,628; # of deaths worldwide: 5,881,128; # of cases U.S.: 79,915,734; # of deaths; U.S.: 955,497. 

The CDC remains wary about international travel – More COVID restrictions lifted – Vaccines and exercise – The Canadian authorities emerge from their torpor – A potential COVID casualty averted by an unlikely intervention – Evening statistics

One must be cautious about becoming over-confident of international travel.  The CDC currently ranks only seven destinations at Level 1, or low risk for COVID:  Benin, China, Falkland Islands, Hong Kong, Sierra Leone, Taiwan, and East Timor.  Only four nations are ranked at Level 2, or moderate risk:  Cameroon, Madeira Islands, New Zealand, and Pakistan.  All of the rest are Level 3 (high risk) or Level 4 (very high risk).  The CDC recommends that unvaccinated people should avoid unessential travel to those in the Level 3 category and that all travelers, even if vaccinated, should avoid unessential travel to those in the Level 4 category.  Nearly all countries in Europe are currently in the Level 4 category.  I hope that evaluation will change in the spring, when I am scheduled for a couple of international trips to Ireland and Iceland.

COVID-related restrictions are continuing to be lifted.  Starting on March 1^st, Washington DC will no longer make facemasks mandatory in many indoor settings, such as restaurants, bars, gyms, and houses of worship.  Masks will still be required in schools, libraries, nursing homes, public transit, and healthcare facilities.  In Maryland, the requirement for masks and face coverings in state buildings will end on Feb. 22^nd.  In Virginia, Governor Youngkin has made amendments that would end school mask mandates on March 1^st.  The amendments will have to be ratified by the General Assembly, and it probably will be, since several Democratic members as well as Republicans have contended that the mask mandates are no longer needed. 

A new study at Iowa State University suggests that taking exercise shortly after taking the COVID vaccines will increase their efficacy.  Such a course is more easily said than done.  In my own case it was not an issue.  I had little reaction to any of the doses I have received and was able to hike on the same day that I received each of them.  But I know some whose reactions were more severe and who were in no condition to do anything of the sort until the after-effects passed away. 

Justin Trudeau has finally taken action to recover Canada’s capital.  Ottawa Police Chief Peter Sloly has tendered in his resignation, and it has been accepted with a speed and decision that borders on being insulting; but not more so than he deserves for his inertia in the face of the protestors who have been harassing the citizens for weeks.  A command center was set up so that the Royal Canadian Mounted Police and the Ontario Provincial Police could assume command over the situation.  The Ottawa police are thus reduced to a secondary role but after their continued sloth while the residents of Ottawa have been in a state of siege, they deserve no better.

An odd little story with a happy ending:  Naoki Teraoka’s miniature-railroad-themed restaurant in Osaka was doing well until the pandemic struck, but when it did his clientele dwindled and he was contemplating closing up shop as revenues decreased.  During this time a couple of stray cats (a kitten and its mother) began to wander in and out, and the restaurant owners, with few customers and plenty of surplus food, began to feed them.  Eventually the mother cat showed up with three more kittens, which the owners fed likewise.   The cats began making themselves at home amidst the restaurant’s furniture, as cats tend to do, including the scaled model train dioramas. Though diminutive in real life, the cats towered over the miniature landscapes, reminiscent of movies that feature invasions from oversize creatures from outer space.  Amused by such a tableau, Teraoka began taking photos and posting them.  They went viral, as the term goes, and this reaction gave Teraoka the inspiration to transform his restaurant into a cat sanctuary where patrons could interact with stray cats as they dined, and to adopt them if they wished.  The strategy proved to be successful:  customers have been patronizing the newly-themed restaurant in droves.  Not only has Teraoka’s business fallen on its feet (to use a phrase that, under these circumstances, seems peculiarly appropriate) but he has found homes for more than 60 stray cats and rescued dozens more from the streets. 

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  415,774,855; # of deaths worldwide: 5,855,632; # of cases U.S.: 79,625,776; # of deaths; U.S.: 949,174. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  417,917,892; # of deaths worldwide: 5,867,379; # of cases U.S.: 79,768,256; # of deaths; U.S.: 951,953. 

Signs of the pandemic winding down – Evening statistics

Republicans in Congress have asked President Biden to end the designation of COVID-19 as a public health emergency (PHE).  For that matter even Democratic-governed states are lifting restrictions in rapid succession.  Connecticut  ended its statewide mask mandate on Feb. 28^th, after which date it will be up to local leaders to make decisions on mask requirements.  New Jersey will lift its mask mandate in schools (for students and employees) starting March 7^th, although districts can still require masking to control spikes in infections.  Delaware’s universal indoor mask mandate will expire on March 31^st, as well as its indoor mask mandate for public and private K-12 schools and child care facilities.  Oregon will lift its indoor mask requirements for schools and public places on March 31^st.   California will end indoor masking requirements for vaccinated people on February 15^th, although unvaccinated people will still be required to wear masks indoors throughout the state, and individual businesses can still require masks if they wish.  In addition, counties and municipalities in California are allowed to have stricter rules than the state does, a source of considerable confusion for those who live in one county and work in another. 

It still seems a bit premature to declare the pandemic at an end, since the death toll until recently was over 2000 per day.  But numbers are declining rapidly.  Today’s count of new COVID cases, for instance, was under 65,000 (less than the amount for the single state of New York a month ago) and the death toll was less than 700.  The CDC is in the process of rewriting everything from masking guidance to testing requirements as part of a plan to be rolled out in the next month or two. 

Restrictions are dropping internationally as well.  Visitors to France, provided that they are vaccinated, are no longer required to take a test to enter the country under new rules that came into effect on February 12^th.  Ireland and the U.K., similarly, removed testing requirements for vaccinated foreign visitors on January 24^th and February 11^th respectively.  Greece announced that fully vaccinated visitors from the European Union do not need to present arrival tests as of February 7^th, which is expected to apply to vaccinated Americans as well.

We’re not out of the woods yet, but the outlook is a good deal more hopeful than it was two months ago.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 412,076,898; # of deaths worldwide: 5,833,903; # of cases U.S.: 79,325,576; # of deaths; U.S.: 943,411. 

Rudy Giuliani’s harmonies – An election of octogenarians – Our younger generations being squeezed out – COVID continues to decline – A determined city mayor – Evening statistics

Some days ago Rudy Giuliani was unmasked as an exiting costumed contestant in a taping of the first Season 7 episode of Fox’s popular primetime series “The Masked Singer.”  This event aroused considerable criticism, to the extent of causing a couple of the contest judges to walk out in protest.  It may, however, have been an act of foreshadowing.  In the slang of the gulag, according to Aleksandr Solzhenistyn, a “singer” is someone who, when questioned by authorities, has no hesitation in providing incriminating testimony against others in order to save his own skin.  Giuliani is currently in discussions with the House panel investigating the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol. Time will tell to what extent he is willing to “sing” on this occasion.

If there is any doubt that both of our main political parties are moribund, that doubt must be dispelled by the current prognostics for the 2024 Presidential election.  Both Trump and Biden are the forerunners for the Republican and Democratic candidates respectively, although Trump will be 77 years old in 2024 and Biden will be 81.  It seems incredible that one party, let alone both of them, is willing to put up a candidate well past his prime and, in the cases of Trump and Biden alike, arguably in his dotage.  The word “senate” is derived from the Roman word “senex,” meaning “elder” or “old man”; but I believe that even the ancient Romans would be astounded by this monopoly of national government by geriatrics.  Our Senate is truly a collection of seniors:  over half of them are 65 or older.  When Ronald Reagan ran for re-election in 1984, his age at the time was the source of numerous jokes and it was considered to be a severe disqualification by many.  At the age of 73, he would have been considered a callow youth by today’s standards.  We are currently in the situation that prevailed in 19^th century France at the tail-end of the Bourbon Restoration.  In 1827, the sociologist Baron Charles Dupin calculated that about one-ninth of Frenchmen were over the age of 57, but that they constituted about half of the “political nation.”  Balzac’s verdict in “Les Filles des Yeux d’Or,” of life being reduced to a battle between “a wan and colorless youth and a senility bedizened in the attempt to look young,” is every bit as true of the U.S. today as it was of France two hundred years ago.

It was not always so.  Kennedy was 43 when he took office, Lyndon Johnson was 54, Bill Clinton was 48, even Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford were in their early 60s.  At what point did our two main parties decide that the hands of governments must be hands afflicted with palsied senility?

The United States reported a daily average of less than 180,000 new COVID-19 cases, down 67% over 14 days.  At this point every state and territory has seen a decrease in cases.  COVID hospitalizations also continue to fall.  Various states are lifting restrictions.  New York has already lifted the state’s “mask-or-vaccine” requirement for indoor businesses.  On Feb. 28^th Illinois will lift its indoor mask mandate and Massachusetts will lift a mask requirement for schools.  The decline is worldwide as well as national, with a 1% decrease in deaths and a 19% decrease in hospitalizations over the past week.

James Butts, the mayor of Inglewood, CA, a city in the Los Angeles complex, is determined that it will not undergo the fate of Ottawa, and has said so in the bluntest possible terms.  In response to threats of a trucker convoy protest, the city of Inglewood and security forces have been put on high alert.  The truckers, Butts added, “‘wouldn’t be able to do it because the trucks would be towed away immediately. Let me be very clear . . . their vehicles would be towed immediately and it would cost them a lot of money.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  412,076,898; # of deaths worldwide: 5,833,903; # of cases U.S.: 79,325,576; # of deaths; U.S.: 943,411.

Trail work – Ottawa remains paralyzed, while Paris does not submit tamely – Renewed interest in the Solomon Islands – Some remedies for long COVID – Another COVID tragedy – Evening statistics

I went with other members of the Potomac Heritage Trail Association to do some work on the trail along Broad Run.  I have somewhat neglected the responsibility of trail work – for, considering the use I make of the trails in the area, it is a responsibility to participate in their maintenance.  I have indeed contributed funds to the organizations that maintain them, but one really ought to do more if one can.  The section of the PHT on which we worked is rather a troublesome one.  It skirts around Broad Run just as it approaches the Criminal Justice Training Academy in Ashburn.  Broad Run is, at the name indicates, much too wide to place reliance on boulders or pylons to cross it; it requires a bridge.  In order to access a bridge one must pass under Rte. 7 and then use the bridge along Russell Branch Parkway.  We worked along the area between the underpass and Bles Park.  It was quite inspiring to see how this section, initially densely overgrown with vines and brambles and fallen branches, gradually cleared into a path on which one could walk without difficulty.  In one case we came upon a huge oak that had fallen directly onto the trail.  Our expert with the chainsaw made two incisions and then a couple of us pushed against the segment of the trunk that had been cut apart from the rest until we could roll it away, and thus a passage along the trail was cleared. 

After a week-long blockage of the Ambassador Bridge in Windsor, the Canadian police, prodded by a judge who has given protestors orders to leave, are at last taking action and dispersing the demonstrators.  But Ottawa remains under siege and there is little sign of police activity.  “This is Jan. 6 in slow motion,” said Catherine McKenney, an Ottawa city councilor. “But on Jan. 7, 2021, Washington emptied out.  Here, they stayed.”  And they will continue to stay, unless the Canadian government decides to oppose the protestors more aggressively – which so far has not been forthcoming and shows little sign of doing so in the near future.

The government of France is displaying a great deal more backbone.  Police set up roadblocks to vehicles of protestors entering Paris.  Some carloads of protestors managed to evade these, but when they blocked the Champs Ėlysée the police fired tear gas and detained several of them.  As a result, Parisians are able to walk the streets of their own city unmolested, which is a good deal more than can be said about the citizens of Canada’s capital.

The Solomon Islands is an archipelago of six major islands and about 900 smaller islands, stretching over a distance of nearly 1,000 miles, with a total land area of about 11,000 square miles and a population of well under a million.  Unlike many Pacific island nations, tourism is not a major source of income.  Due to its lack of infrastructure and its remoteness, it is in fact one of the least-visited countries in the world.  Now, however, it has become a focal point of interest between the U.S. and China.  The U.S. plans to open an embassy there, to increase its influence in the South Pacific before China becomes “strongly embedded.”  The U.S. previously operated an embassy in the Solomons for five years before closing it in 1993. Since then, U.S. diplomats from neighboring Papua New Guinea have been accredited to the Solomons, which currently has a U.S. consular agency.  Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum. Attorney-General of Fiji, welcomes this move, saying that Pacific island nations have long felt overlooked by larger nations as “flyover” countries.

There is some encouraging news for sufferers from long COVID.  Over-the-counter antihistamines may provide relief for them.  At this point there is no cure for long COVID.  The only method of treating it is symptom management.  Some of the symptoms of long COVID are brain fog, joint pain, exercise intolerance, and fatigue.  In some documented cases antihistamines have moderated these symptoms, and a few patients have reported recovering over 90% of their pre-COVID functioning. 

There are so many affecting stories related to the pandemic that one hesitates to record any more, and yet this one cannot be passed over in silence.  It is at once sad and inspiriting.  Thomas Fortenberry, 69, and his wife, Diane Fortenberry, 68, were admitted to the ICU of the WakeMed Health & Hospitals in North Carolina.  They had been married for more than 50 years, having met each one another attending high school in Mississippi and gotten married as teenagers in 1970.  Their daughters were forced to make the difficult decision to withdraw care for them after it became clear that neither would be able to recover from the COVID virus.  The two held hands together on the last day of their lives, dying within four minutes of one another.  “Our staff watched from inside and outside of the room while they drifted to the next life together,” one staff member wrote afterwards. “Calm, peaceful, and pain-free.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 410,674,556; # of deaths worldwide: 5,828,531; # of cases U.S.: 79,293,924; # of deaths; U.S.: 942,944. 

A Supreme Court Justice candidate – Dr. Fauci indicates that the end of the pandemic phase is approaching – The situation in Ottawa – Evening statistics

A new candidate for the vacancy in the Supreme Court has offered her services for the position, one Maddi Morgan, who it must be admitted has certain qualifications:  she lives just a few blocks from the court building, so that commuting would not impose any difficulty, she is black, and she is female, which last two criteria Biden has announced to be all-important in his selection of a candidate.  There is a slight impediment, however:  she has no legal experience whatsoever, being only 11 years old.  When asked if she thought a child could handle the position, she responded without hesitation: “Children don’t have a voice in this country.  Give them a small one.”  However, ambitious though she might be, she has had the foresight to make backup plans in case this proposed arrangement falls through.  “I would definitely understand that President Biden does not want a child on the Supreme Court,” she said. “But I have always wanted to be an astrophysicist.”

Dr. Fauci is already working on the strategy for the time when we reach the post-pandemic stage.  At one point experts indicated that people would be getting an annual COVID shot, just as currently many of us get an annual flu shot.  Dr. Fauci, however, has indicated that such boosters may be given at intervals of 4-5 years instead of annually.  He has said, moreover, that all COVID-related restrictions will be lifted soon, although he was not specific about dates.  But he says that we are certainly heading out of the pandemic phase at this point.  As of February 9, 2022, the current 7-day moving average of daily new cases decreased 42.8% compared with the previous 7-day moving average.  New hospitalizations have decreased by more than 25% within this period.  Deaths, also, are beginning to decline, having fallen 5.9% within the same period.  Virtually all of the currently active cases are of the omicron variant, whose hospitalization and mortality rates are considerably lower than those of previous variants.  About 75.8% of the population has received at least one dose of a COVID vaccine and 64.3% of the population is fully vaccinated. 

The anti-vaxxers in Ottawa were repulsed by 40 cannons firing into their massed forces, a “whiff of grapeshot” that effectively dealt a death blow to that movement – no, wait, I’m getting that confused with the 13^th Vendémiaire, the events of which propelled the young general Napoleon Bonaparte into prominence.  What has happened in reality is that Justin Trudeau, who bears no resemblance whatever to Napoleon, continues to do nothing, and the Canadian police follow his example by sitting on their hands while the citizens of Ottawa are robbed of their sleep by the continual noise-making of the protestors and numerous businesses lose revenue or are forced to close altogether because pedestrians are harassed on the streets to such an extent that they are unable to access the stores’ buildings. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 408,646,137; # of deaths worldwide: 5,819,357; # of cases U.S.: 79,196,377; # of deaths; U.S.: 941,658. 

Results of COVID testing – The perils of living alone – Marjorie Taylor-Greene’s confusion between culinary and constabulary matters – France’s pre-emptive measures against a freedom convoy – A homicide in Italy – The extent of COVID vaccination – Dr. Fauci is optimistic – Evening statistics

After I wrote the preceding entry it occurred to me that I was indulging in a bit of hubris by expressing so much confidence in the results of my COVID test.  If so, Nemesis has not overtaken me on this occasion.  I received the results today, somewhat earlier than I expected (it was a 24-hour turnaround time, in fact), and the result is negative.  And even though I was not especially worried, I will admit that it is a relief to obtain confirmation that I have thus far escaped from the virus.

The following story is not COVID-related, but it has relevance to people in my situation.  Marinella Beretta, of Como in Italy, was discovered by police in her home.  She had been dead for well over two years and her remains had become mummified.  Nearly 40% of men and women over 75 years old in Italy live alone.  Berretta’s neighbors, who had not seen her since September 2019, assumed she had moved away at the start of the coronavirus pandemic.  Of course many elderly people, including myself, live alone in this country as well.  I have some interaction with my neighbors and my relatives and my friends, particularly with those who join me on hikes, but still – I go away on trips from time to time, I don’t always respond rapidly to Emails or messages left on my cell phone.   And, of course, I have been living a somewhat more isolated life for the past two years on account of the restrictions imposed by the pandemic. It’s conceivable that once I pass on it will take some time for others to notice.  I suppose that I should set up some sort of mechanism to alert people if there’s no sign of life in the house after a while, but I have no idea of how to go about it.  It’s something that I need to research.

Marjorie Taylor-Greene has accused Nancy Pelosi having “gazpacho police.”  Who knew that Pelosi’s devious plans included an attempt to force Americans to consume cold soup made from bread crumbs, tomatoes, cucumbers, bell peppers, garlic, olive oil, and wine vinegar?  Needless to say, the Internet has taken up this faux pas with its usual charitableness.  Alexandra Petri, for instance, tweeted that “the use of gazpacho tactics by Nancy Pelosi is chilling” while Alyssa Farah Griffin, a former White House communications director under the Trump administration, added, “Thank goodness my wedding caterers knew the difference between gazpacho and the gestapo.  Coulda gotten weird.”

So-called “freedom convoys” of motorists have set off from half a dozen French cities to Paris in order to protest against the country’s coronavirus restrictions.  But the French government is showing a great deal more resolution than the Canadian one, which has allowed its capital to languish for days on end.  The protests are unilaterally banned for February 11-14, and violators of the ban will incur penalties such as two years in prison, a fine of €4,500, and a three-year driving ban if they block public roads.

Carabinieri Vice Brigadier Mario Cerciello Rega, who had just returned from his honeymoon, was stabbed 11 times in the street while on a plainclothes mission in July 2019, near a hotel where two American visitors were staying.  Finnegan Lee Elder, now 22, and Gabriel Natale-Hjorth, now 20, were convicted in May 2021 of slaying the 35-year-old officer, as well as of attempted extortion, resisting a public official, and carrying an attack-style knife without just cause.  They are currently appealing their sentence of life imprisonment.  In light of the events of January 6, 2021, the Italian police should not be surprised at the lethal propensities of American “tourists.”

Nearly 54% of the world’s population has been fully vaccinated for COVID just one year after the vaccines were rolled out.  This effort represents a logistical feat without precedent in human history.  There is, however, a great disparity among richer and poorer nations.  Less than 11% of people in low-income countries have received at least one dose, while the numbers are about 55% of populations in lower-middle-income countries and nearly 80% of populations in upper-middle-income and high-income nations.  The WHO last month said that nearly 90 countries have not reached the public health agency’s national vaccination target for late 2021 and were not on track to reach its target for mid-2022. Many of those countries are in Africa, where 85% of people have not received any dose of a coronavirus vaccine.

Dr. Fauci says that the U.S. is almost past the “full-blown” pandemic phase of the coronavirus and hopes that all virus-related restrictions could wind down in a few months.  The number of COVID-related hospitalizations has decreased by more than 28% over the past three weeks.  We continue to fall lower on the list of nations ranked by incidence of the COVID virus, and are currently in the 40^th place.  Last year at this time the U.S. was among the top ten.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:406,064,155; # of deaths worldwide: 5,807,352; # of cases U.S.: 78,983,392; # of deaths; U.S.: 939,298. 

Nicholson Hollow and Old Rag – The difficulty of making travel plans – Encouraging statistics from the WHO – A precautionary test – “Constitution? What constitution?” – Evening statistics

Great news!  I called Shenandoah National Park to ask about the Nicholson Hollow Trail, which is accessed from the same parking lot as Old Rag.  I was told that one will need permits only for the three trails that go over Old Rag, not for the parking area itself.  Hikes that use Nicholson Hollow as a starting point will not be affected – and there are a great number of these, since the Nicholson Hollow Trail intersects several other trails within the park and one can create literally dozens of circuit hikes with the trail as its basis.  SNP told me that they had sent an answer to my Email on the subject some weeks ago, but it must have been shunted to my spam folder. 

The precaution about Old Rag is well-advised, for by now it is greatly overused.  I never go there on weekends, when it can get nearly as congested as Disneyland.  And going to Old Rag is not something that I do on the spur of the moment.  It takes me about 1½ hours to get to the parking area, so I would have to plan in advance to hike there in any case.  Getting a permit in advance merely adds another step to the planning process. 

I had a rather melancholy conversation with HC this evening.  She was in great perplexity about plans to travel internationally during the spring and asked me for advice on the matter.  It seems that some of my acquaintance are regarding me as an authority on the subject, although I certainly have no such pretension.  I do, as the journal exemplifies, try to keep abreast with statistics concerning the COVID virus.  My view of the situation is rather like that of Sherlock Holmes:  “Data! data! data!” he cried impatiently. “I can’t make bricks without clay.”  Alas, in the current instance I fear I was not of much use.  I said that I myself was planning to travel during May and June to other countries and was reasonably optimistic about these trips, since the virus appears to be declining at this stage.  But I added that there was the possibility of a new variant emerging and expanding to the point of prolonging the pandemic still further, and that I had to show flexibility and be prepared to lose some or all of the money I had paid in advance if these plans should be disrupted.  It was a very indecisive variety of advice, but what else could I say?

Speaking of data:  COVID case counts have fallen by 17% worldwide over the last week, including a 50% decline in the United States.  However, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, head of the World Health Organization, has said that “COVID isn’t finished with us.”  The WHO reported more than 19 million new COVID-19 cases and just under 68,000 new deaths from Jan. 31 to Feb. 6.  It will be seen that the mortality rate is much lower than it has been with previous variants.  Nonetheless, in the eastern Mediterranean region (including countries such as Afghanistan, Iran and Jordan) cases rose by 36%.  And poorer countries have not been able to access vaccines to the extent that richer ones have done.  In the continent of Africa, only 8% of the population has been vaccinated.  South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said that rich countries have administered 14 times more doses of life-saving vaccines and carried out 80 times more tests than have low-income countries.

One of the friends with whom I was sitting together in a winery last week has tested positive for COVID, experiencing only mild symptoms but going into quarantine nonetheless.  Those who sat with her, including myself, have gotten tested.  In my case I got tested today and I will get the results in 2-3 days.  To tell the truth, I am not particularly concerned on my own behalf.  Indoor contact with others after this episode has been minimal – various excursions to stores, in which I always wear a facemask.  It has already been nine days since the encounter; and only yesterday I went on a hike that was 17 miles long, with 4000 feet of elevation gain, a fairly challenging bushwhack, and an arduous ascent along one trail (the Indian Run Trail) covered with old snow in which one’s foot sank with every step.  It seemed to me that I was not tackling the hike with less energy than usual.  It is true that the period of potential incubation has not yet run to the end of its course, but surely if I had contracted it I would feel some loss of energy by now?   However, as I say, I am far from being an expert on such matters.

Huntington High School, of Huntington, WV, has included a curious addition to its curriculum.  Between calculus and European history classes, the students were led to the auditorium for a Christian evangelical revival assembly.  There they were instructed to close their eyes and raise their arms in prayer. After that they were told to give their lives over to Jesus to find purpose and salvation. Those who did not follow the Bible would go to hell when they died.  Afterwards Cameron Mays, one of the students coerced in this fashion, sent a text to his father, asking “Is this legal?”

The answer, of course, is no.  This ceremony took place in direct opposition to the provisions of the U.S. constitution.  Jedd Flowers, the Cabell County Schools spokesmen, said afterwards that the event was voluntary and that there was supposed to be a sign-up sheet for the students interested in attending it, but that two of the teachers misunderstood and directed their entire class to attend, regardless of their inclinations.  I doubt very much that the organizers won any converts by such high-handed methods.  More than 100 of the students staged a walkout today from their homerooms in protest.  

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 403,436,956; # of deaths worldwide: 5,794,633; # of cases U.S.: 78,815,753; # of deaths; U.S.: 935,748. 

Ottawa remains paralyzed – At Shenandoah National Park – Old Rag permits – A rioter’s previous encounters with the law – Evening statistics

Not many new developments on COVID recently, unless the ongoing siege – er, um, I mean protest – in Ottawa can be considered one.  Trudeau has given a speech in which he said, “This must stop!” – but he does nothing to stop it.  The Canadian police remain inert. 

I went today with the Vigorous Hikers up the Nicholson Hollow and Hannah Run Trails to Skyline Drive, from which we bushwhacked for about ¼ mile or so to the Appalachian Trail, returning via the Corbin Cabin Cutoff, Indian Run, and Corbin Mountain Trails.  I had no wish for the temperature to remain below freezing, as I usually do on winter hikes.  There was a sharp wind blowing through much of Shenandoah National Park, especially at the ridgeline that the AT traverses.  Even though the temperature was warmer than some of my recent hikes it felt considerably colder.  Then, too, the hike involved numerous stream crossings, and it was a matter of some concern that that boulders used for crossing them should not be coated with ice.  The Hughes River, which is rather a temperamental little stream, was full as a result of recent rains and of snowmelt from previous storms, and was running high enough to make the tops of many of these rocks wet.  Initially, in fact, the route was planned out to go in the opposite direction, ascending via Corbin Mountain and descending via Hannah Run, but we reversed our direction in the hope that the ice at the crossing to the Corbin Mountain Trail would be gone in the afternoon – as indeed proved to be the case.  We had many fine views of the valleys both to the east and the west of the Blue Ridge Mountains, especially at Jewell Hollow.  Hardly anyone was driving on Skyline Drive and we saw no one else on the trails, even at the popular Pinnacles picnic area. 

We did indeed see other people in the parking area, but they all went to hike Old Rag; the trailheads for Old Rag and for the Nicholson Hollow Trail are accessed by the same parking lot.  This has become a matter of some concern – for me at least, as one who has plotted out many hikes in that area.  Starting from next month, as part of an attempt to control the crowds who hike Old Rag, people will need to obtain permits to do so, and the permits must be obtained in advance.  Will this regulation affect those who are using the parking area to go to the Nicholson Hollow Trail?  The trail has junctions with about half-a-dozen others, and is therefore the basis of many circuit hikes.  I have contacted the Park Service about this matter but so far have received noreply; possibly they themselves are uncertain on this point.

Matthew Jason Beddingfield, one of the rioters of the January 6^th insurrection, faces felony charges of assaulting officers, impeding officers during a civil disorder and carrying a deadly or dangerous weapon on restricted Capitol grounds, as well as several misdemeanors.  What is notable about this case is not the charges – similar ones have been leveled against numerous other participants – but the fact that on January 6, 2021, he was out on bail for a first-degree attempted murder charge in connection with the December 2019 shooting of a 17-year-old in a Walmart parking lot.  Beddingfield himself was 19 at the time. He was initially held on $1 million bail, but he secured pretrial release when bail was lowered to $100,000.  Young Beddingfield is evidently moving up in the world.  Three years ago he began with an attempt at murder, two years later he participated in an attempt to overturn a national election, and in the near future we may hear of his attaining even greater claims to fame, such as bombing a crowded nightclub or setting fire to an entire district.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 398,005,400; # of deaths worldwide: 5,768,461; # of cases U.S.: 78,370,413; # of deaths; U.S.: 928,883. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 400,297,492; # of deaths worldwide: 5,781,227; # of cases U.S.: 78,540,922; # of deaths; U.S.: 932,369. 

The Holly Hill Trail in the ACLT – Jan Psaki on Ted Cruz – Evening statistics and inferences from them

A new trail has been open in the American Chestnut Land Trust for just two months, and a group of us tested it out today.  It is called the Holly Hill Trail and it is well-named, being bordered with numerous holly bushes along its sides.  The trail runs past the site of an old barn dating back to the 18^th century.  The barn itself is long gone, but it has been painstakingly reconstructed.  The day was fine, cloudless, clear, and with barely any wind.  It was also a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, which meant, unfortunately, that the ice crystals in the soil that provided such firm footing in the morning nearly all melted away by noon, so that one had to step carefully to avoid sliding.  Some of us used the raft to cross the creek and go there and back on the North/South Trail, which added a bit of distance and elevation gain to the hike.

Ted Cruz denounced Biden’s declared intention of nominating a black woman as the next Supreme Court Justice.  There is some validity to this statement:  the race or gender of any candidate for such an office should not be a primary factor in his or her selection.  However, Cruz is not in the best of positions to make such an assertion in his own person.  When Donald Trump vowed to replace Ruth Baden Ginsburg with a woman after her death in 2020 (which promise, for a wonder, was one of the few he kept, by appointing Amy Coney Barrett in her place), Cruz at that time did not offer the slightest objection.  Upon asked to explain this apparent contradiction, the best reaction came from Jan Psaki:  “I am blissfully not a spokesperson for Senator Cruz, so he can best answer that question.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:                 395,860,389; # of deaths worldwide: 5,758,442; # of cases U.S.: 78,017,402; # of deaths; U.S.: 926,029.  Rates in the U.S. are certainly falling.  We are now 38^th highest on the list of nations ranked by incidence of COVID cases, the lowest position we have occupied almost from the beginning of the pandemic.  However, we are still 18^th when ranked by number of deaths per million of population.  The current mortality rate, i.e., deaths among people who have contracted the virus, is about 1.2%; again, this is considerably lower than it was during the earlier stages of the pandemic.  The average mortality rate worldwide is 1.5%, so we are doing relatively well, despite the death toll in recent days.  As noted earlier, there is a lag time between the period when patients become infected and when they succumb.  As the number of new cases continues to recede, the death rate should decelerate during the next several weeks.

At Signal Knob and Meneka Peak – Perspectives on the latest winter snowstorm – The attempt of a rioter to shift the blame onto more notable parties – COVID abroad – The ubiquitous element – Evening statistics

It rained steadily over the past two days, but the rain moved out at last.  It was in the 50s earlier, while today it never rose above freezing.  But a dry sunny day is much more comfortable than a perpetually wet one, even if the latter is twenty degrees warmer.  The forecast included sharp blasts of wind of 20 MPH and more, and it may have been so in other areas; but Signal Knob and Meneka Peak, where we hiked today, was fairly sheltered.  We had occasional cold breezes along the ridgeline but nothing more, and next to no wind at all in the lower elevations.  Surprisingly, there was little ice on the trail after the long rain and virtually no significant blowdowns.  We used the counter-clockwise route, which is preferable to the clockwise one in my opinion:  the slope of the descent is gentler and less rocky than that of the main ascent at the beginning.  Even this main ascent is not especially steep, climbing up slightly over 800 feet in 1½ miles. The route passes overlooks of historic as well as scenic interest.  The Fort Valley Overlook provides a view of some of the land George Washington traversed in his early career as a surveyor, while Signal Knob was a significant Civil War outpost, used (as its name implies) for the purpose of sending semaphores to various other outposts along the Shenandoah Valley, of which a wide swath several miles long can be viewed from the summit of the knob. 

The long rainfall here came at the tail end of a devastating snowstorm further north.  As much as 17 inches of snow was dumped in upstate New York and much of New England.  However, tastes differ in weather as in everything else.  I have already mentioned how, during winter hikes, I prefer it when the temperature never rises above the high 20s, thereby ensuring that the muddy patches on the trails remain frozen.  Even today was a bit warm by my standards; the temperature was just over 30 degrees, which was sufficient to melt some of the remnants of snow and ice from previous storms and to make portions of the trails a bit soggy.  Similarly, in Vermont, where most residents were deploring the ice-coated roads, fallen tree limbs, downed power lines, and canceled airplane flights, skiers and snowboarders gleefully described the current conditions as being the best of the entire season.   “We’re just having a blast,” one winter sportsman said.  “The sauce is flowing.”

Dustin Thompson has been charged with multiple counts related to the riot of January 6, 2021, including entering restricted grounds, theft of government property, and disorderly conduct. He has pleaded not guilty.  His attorney, Samuel Shamansky, has asked the judge to subpoena Trump and some of his allies, including Giuliani and Steve Bannon.  “It is anticipated that, when called as a witness, Donald J. Trump will testify that he and others orchestrated a carefully crafted plot to call into question the integrity of the 2020 presidential election and the validity of President Biden’s victory,” Shamansky wrote.  “Moreover, it will be established at trial that Mr. Trump and his conspirators engaged in a concerted effort to deceive the public, including Defendant, into believing that American democracy was at stake if Congress was permitted to certify the election results.”  I have no doubt that Shamansky might have as well spared himself the effort.  But it is worth noting that he represents an increasing trend among the defendants charged with crimes related to the insurrection to direct the blame towards the ex-President.  Whether such a trend will have any tangible result, of course, remains uncertain.

Various developments with respect to COVID from abroad:

In the U.K., the number of COVID patients admitted to ICUs is now 20 per day, as opposed to 400 per day at the peak of the second wave in January last year.  Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of Turkey, and his wife Emine Erdogan have tested positive for COVID, the latest of the heads of state and/or their spouses to contract the disease.  Both are reporting only mild symptoms.  About 50 members of Iran’s 290-seated Parliament have also ontracted COVID.  Parliament was suspended in Iran for two days last year in April, when several lawmakers died from the virus.  At this point it is uncertain whether similar measures will be required this month, since the effects of the omicron variant are milder than the ones that emerged last year.  Hospitalizations and admissions to ICUs have each fallen in Italy by about 2% since yesterday.  Starting tomorrow, Russia will ease some of its COVID-related restrictions.  Residents will no longer need to self-isolate after contacting those infected with the virus. In Moscow, schools and nurseries may end isolation requirements for pupils beginning next week.

Ah, those dried salted plums (also known as saladitos)!  So flavorful, so healthful, so low in calories, so effective in relieving constipation, so replete with anti-oxidants, so full of useful nutritional substances such as fiber, potassium, magnesium, and . . .  lead? 

It appears that lead can get into food fairly readily during drying, storing, and grinding ingredients if the process is done improperly.  Even the soil on which our produce is grown contains a significant quantity, due in a large measure to lead additives in gasoline that was used on a regular basis in the past for decades.  The amount in this particular case is not trivial:  a serving of 1¼ ounces may contain anywhere from 8 to 12 milligrams of lead, clearly well in excess of the 1 part per billion (ppb) maximum lead level recommended by the FDA.  Three brands have already been recalled from the shelves of American food stores, and there probably will be more of these recalls in the near future.  Such adulteration is not confined to this foodstuff alone.  Many use lead additives deliberately, especially those from Asia.  Turmeric from Bangladesh, for example, may have lead added to reinforce its bright yellow coloring.   One needs to be especially wary of products that are touted as “health foods.” 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 393,554,762; # of deaths worldwide: 5,751,829; # of cases U.S.: 77,623,624; # of deaths; U.S.: 925,655.

A slight disagreement – COVID continues to decline – Complaints of a grammar Nazi – Evening statistics

The worm has turned! – maybe.  Trump recently made a speech in which he asserted, with regard to Mike Pence, “Unfortunately, he didn’t exercise that power, he could have overturned the Election!”  Some time later, that is to say, four or five days later, Pence has ventured to disagree, saying that “Under the Constitution, I had no right to change the outcome of our election.  And Kamala Harris will have no right to overturn the election when we beat them in 2024.”  This statement is the closest that Pence has come within the past year towards any sign of straightforward resentment towards the man who advocated his murder by the mob that besieged the Capitol in January, 2021; but it will have to suffice for the present. 

The number of COVID hospitalizations has decreased by 15% since mid-January.  It now stands about 124,000, which is still high, but a good deal better than it was a month ago.  Deaths are still running high at more than 2,400 per day on average, reflecting the lag between when victims become infected and when they succumb.  At this point COVID remains the third-highest cause of death in the country, lagging behind only heart disease and cancer. 

An article in Health Digest is entitled “The First Thing You Should Do When You Feel Nauseous.”  The first step I would recommend for anyone in such a state is – go and check your dictionary.  There is a certain class of words whose meanings are being obliterated thanks to their continual misuse, which our language can ill afford to spare:  “reticent” (reserved, taciturn) for “reluctant,” “disinterested” (unbiased, impartial) for “uninterested,” “infer” (deduce or conclude) for “imply” (suggest or say indirectly) and, yes, “nauseous” (causing nausea, offensive to the taste or smell) for “nauseated” (being afflicted with nausea). 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:391,258,624; # of deaths worldwide: 5,743,005; # of cases U.S.: 77,490,947; # of deaths; U.S.: 924,465.

Enforced down time – In Fort Belvoir – Another guilty plea by an insurrectionist – Falling COVID rates – Rising opioid overdose rates – Suicides over the past two decades – Defeat of Governor Noem’s anti-abortion bill –Evening statistics

FIOS was down in my neighborhood yesterday for several hours.  I’ve often wondered that writers for movies and TV shows do not take advantage of our increasing dependency on technology to turn out episodes along the lines of “Twilight Zone”:  how our ability to communicate to others and how even our identities can depend on the mechanisms that contain personal data remaining in working order, and how much confusion can arise if they don’t.  Such an episode could be called “I Hope the Electricity Works.”  That would be rather a catchy title, don’t you think?

The weather yesterday was raw and chill and foggy during the morning, not the most inviting for hiking; but the mists gradually cleared and it became much warmer and drier during the afternoon.  I went with RS along the trails of Fort Belvoir.  A visitor pass to this military installation is surprisingly easy to obtain.  I had only to show my driver’s license for identification; the staff at the Visitor Center checked it against a database and once they verified that I had no past criminal record they gave me the pass in the course of a very few minutes.  The trails provide extensive views of the Accotink Bay of the Potomac.  We saw numerous waterfowl flying above the water and roosting on the surface of the bay:  terns (a great number of these), ducks, geese, and gulls.  Just a few feet from the shore the land is chiefly wooded forest and it also was teaming with avian species:  pileated woodpeckers, cardinals, and chickadees, among others.  We covered about 13 miles in all.  The trails are broad and for the most part well-maintained.  But parts of it were slow going on account of various blowdowns caused by the recent winter storms.  At one point we encountered a ranger who was inspecting the trails to determine the location of the various fallen trees and to prioritize which ones were to be cleared out first.

Aaron Mostofsky, a 35-year old from Brooklyn, was one of the rioters who stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6^th while clad in fur as a kind of ersatz caveman costume, wearing a stolen police vest and carrying a police shield.  Yesterday he pleaded guilty to one felony count of civil disorder, one count of theft of government property, and one count of entering and remaining in a restricted building.  What is notable about this case is not that he entered a guilty plea to get a lesser sentence or even that he was attired for participating in the insurrection as if attending a costume party, but that he is the son of a judge in the Kings County Supreme Court of New York.  The rioters, for all of their representations of themselves as spokesmen of the common man, were for the most part members of the privileged classes.

COVID cases are declining in numbers.  The omicron variant gave rise to 90 million cases worldwide in the first 10 weeks of the year, a greater number than the number of cases in all of 2020.  But it is receding in several countries, not excluding our own.  Infections in the U.S. have decreased from an average of over 800,000 a day 2½ weeks ago to 430,000 this week.  The World Health Organization has said that some countries can now consider carefully relaxing their rules if they have high immunity rates, their health care systems are strong, and the epidemiological trends are going in the right direction.  England, France, Ireland, the Netherlands, and several Nordic countries have taken steps to loosen their restrictions or end them altogether.  In Denmark all domestic COVID-related restrictions have been lifted entirely.  The restrictions remain in effect in countries such as Austria, Germany, Italy, and Greece, where the infection rates have been declining more slowly, if at all.  Even in Austria, however, the government is planning to loosen COVID-19 restrictions this month and take such steps as allowing restaurants to stay open later.

Another health issue may not be resolved so readily.  The Stanford-Lancet Commission on the North American Opioid Crisis concluded that 1.2 million will die from opioid overdoses in the U.S. and Canada by 2029 and that opioid addiction will expand to other nations unless the pharmaceutical companies are somehow reined in.  There were 6,306 fatal opioid overdoses in Canada and 70,168 in the United States in 2020, respectively up 72% and 37% from the year before.  Part of this increase is undoubtedly a side effect of the COVID pandemic, but aggressive marketing is also a factor, possibly the chief one.  It is not unprecedented for our government to step in and regulate such practices more extensively.  Not long ago a similar strategy was used for tobacco companies, and the amount of smoking decreased substantially after the regulations went into effect:  the rate of cigarette smoking among adults, which was 42.6% in 1965, went down to 13.7% in 2018.

Many of the opioid overdose deaths are accidental, but deliberate overdoses are on the rise within certain segments of the population.  The U.S. National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) conducted a study of overdose deaths from 1999 to 2019.  In that 20-year period the suicide rate as a whole has declined, but suicide by overdose increased among respectively at the following rates for males aged 15-to-24, females aged 15-to-24, males aged 75-to-84, females aged 75-to-84, and African-American women of all ages:  from 0.6 deaths per 100,000 in 2015 to 0.8 in 2019, from 0.6 deaths per 100,000 in 2014 to 1.0 in 2019, from 0.7 deaths per 100,000 in 2001 to 1.6 in 2019, from 0.8 deaths per 100,000 in 2001 to 1.7 in 2019, and from 0.4 deaths per 100,000 in 2013 to 0.7 in 2017.  Clearly women have been subjected to greater stress than men during the past two decades.  The figure for African-American women is particularly surprising:  this group has in the past been regarded as low-risk, as it tends to have strong family ties and strong religious affiliations, both of which factors generally inhibit suicide attempts.  The period under which the data has been collected ends just before the beginning of the pandemic.  Suicide rates during pandemics have historically been low, but the period after pandemics recede have generally shown a sharp increase, and there is every reason to suppose that the months following the decline of the COVID pandemic will conform to this pattern.

Governor Kristi Noem’s proposed abortion bill, which would have mimicked the restrictive abortion law in Texas, has failed to pass.  It must be impartially recorded that the Republican Party in the South Dakota Legislature was primarily responsible for its defeat.  Even the pro-lifers within the Party were antagonized by the wording of the bill, which they said would jeopardize their legal battle with Planned Parenthood.  But however little credit the Party members’ motives may have been for preventing the bill to pass, they certainly succeeded in doing it, and for the moment, at least, the women of South Dakota are somewhat better situated than their counterparts to the South.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 381,785,205; # of deaths worldwide: 5,704,098; # of cases U.S.: 76,514,428; # of deaths; U.S.: 913,905.

On the Reston Loop – Impressions from fellow-hikers of the pandemic and its effects – Evening statistics

I went with the Vigorous Hikers today on the Reston Loop, another route that benefits from being done in winter, since it traverses portions of the Cross-County Trail that tend to get muddy and even submerged in warmer seasons but were frozen firm today.  The trail system in the Reston area has been greatly extended over the years.   Even though we took a shortcut that reduced the original route by a mile, we completed well over 17 miles and it would have been easy to extend the route still further.  In addition to being a lovely day, the temperature climbed steadily until it was well over 40 degrees in the afternoon, which seemed almost balmy in comparison with the chillier temperatures we have seen over the past two weeks.  There were occasional ice patches, but nothing so severe as to warrant the use of spikes.

During the hike I spoke with BF, the hike leader, who is a surgeon.  I was curious to hear what he, as a medical professional, thought about vaccine mandates.  Although he is a proponent of the vaccines he is not an advocate of mandates.  He pointed out certain factors that I had not reflected upon.  For example, one reason for increased resistance to the vaccines is that people have not had much first-hand experience of its ill effects.  When the polio vaccine was first distributed, people in general received it very readily because a large number of them had had the experience of visiting a friend or relative in a hospital who had received an iron lung.  When COVID patients were placed on ventilators, they usually were isolated from everyone else and consequently people have not seen them with anything like the frequency of what was seen during polio epidemics.  Then, too, the COVID vaccines are somewhat different from others.  They are not especially effective at preventing people from infecting others and, although hospitalizations are overwhelmingly among the unvaccinated, so-called breakthrough cases have occurred more frequently than anticipated.  The vaccines are excellent at mitigating the severity of the disease once it has been caught, but the immunity they confer diminishes over time.  Finally, the vaccines have been bundled up with other measures that have proved to be decidedly unpopular, such as lockdowns.  For young males, the vaccines appear to increase the risk of myocarditis – slightly, but not altogether negligibly.  All of these factors have helped to fuel the passions of the anti-vaxxers.

BF added that on a purely personal level, the workload for hospitals in which he has worked has not increased substantially.  He admitted that this circumstance is probably due to the area in which he is working.  This region is one of the more highly vaccinated places in the country and in addition people are more ready to take prudential measures, such as mask-wearing indoors, more readily than, say, residents of Wyoming or Arkansas. 

MC, another one of the hikers, has recently recovered from the virus and he shared his experiences with me.  He was relatively fortunate, in that the period that he felt ill was relatively brief, about ten days in all.  But it was severe while it lasted, draining him of energy to the extent of making the simplest exertions seem like a crippling struggle for at least two days and inhibiting activity such as going to the gym or hiking out of doors impossible for yet a week more.  He was afflicted by a series of migraine headaches as well.  It ended as suddenly as it came:  in the course of one night he felt a renewed burst of energy and by the following morning recovery was nearly complete.  He had previously been an advocate of “natural immunity” but he told me today that no one would wish to undergo the disease, no matter how many antibodies it conferred upon recovery. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 381,785,205; # of deaths worldwide: 5,704,098; # of cases U.S.: 76,514,428; # of deaths; U.S.: 913,905.

Little Bennett Regional Park – Ongoing protest in Ottawa – Full approval of the Moderna COVID vaccine – Austria’s mandate – Evening statistics

I went down with LM and others to Little Bennett Regional Park, where we meandered about 7 miles over the trail network.  It was a lovely day, not cloudless but sufficiently sunny for the snow to reflect some of the light and brighten up the scene.  Little Bennett is at a lower elevation than the other areas I’ve recently visited, and the snow cover was only about ¼ inch thick.  I did not use microspikes, although most of the others in the group did.  Outside of one trail that was paved instead of dirt there were not many icy patches and I experienced little difficulty in making my way.  The temperature rose above freezing, but happily not enough to cause the snow to melt and make the trails muddy.  Afterwards we went to the winery at Sugarloaf, which I have often passed by on the way to the mountain but which I have never before visited on its own.  It is rather small and sparsely furnished, but pleasant and fairly comfortable.  The hot mulled wine that was one of the options was very cheering after a hike on a wintry day.  Here we sipped wine and lunched on various snacks (mainly provided by LH) and conversed comfortably together.  It was the first shared meal indoors that I have experienced since New Year’s Day. 

The anti-vaxxer protest in Ottawa is continuing, but the reaction of the government is rather puzzling.  No one appears to be taking action against these invaders.  The only action that Ottawa mayor Jim Watson has taken is to plead with the demonstrators to move away:  “Quite frankly, [residents] feel they’re prisoners in their own home. And so my hope is that at some point, the police reach the conclusion that it’s time to have a serious discussion about moving these people on.  You have the right to protest, you’ve had your protest, please move on. Our city has to get back in normal stead.”  But police, it seems, have not advanced beyond the stage of discussion.  They have made no arrests; they have even refrained from issuing tickets and towing vehicles to avoid confrontation with the protestors.  With such spinelessness in response to their misbehavior, the protestors are naturally much too wise to quit the field. 

The Moderna COVID vaccine has now received official approval from the FDA.  Up to this point it was contingent on emergency use authorization (EUA), but it is now the second vaccine to approval without any qualifications.  The FDA has expressed a hope that such an endorsement will overcome some people’s reluctance to take the vaccines.  As of today, 74.1% of all American adults are fully vaccinated and 44.7% have received boosters. 

In Austria, at least, the government has issued a sterner mandate than that of any other country.  Everyone is required to get vaccinated, with the exception of two groups:  pregnant women and those who cannot receive the vaccine for medical reasons.  Anyone who refuses to comply will receive periodic fines ranging from €600 (equivalent to about $670) to €3,600.  The mandate goes into effect tomorrow, but officials will not be verifying people’s vaccination status until mid-March.  It is unclear how strictly it will be enforced.  Many Austrians are hoping that the pandemic will recede by the end of winter; if so, the mandate will no longer be necessary.  It is set to expire in January, 2024 in any case.  Many other European nations are monitoring the progress of the mandate in Austria closely, for obvious reasons.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 377,611,034; # of deaths worldwide: 5,690,813; # of cases U.S.: 76,122,940; # of deaths; U.S.: 909,731.

In Sky Meadows – The burgeoning opioid crisis – Attitudes towards COVID in Bhutan and the U.S. – Demonstration in Ottawa – Evening statistics

All of those who signed up for the Sherman Gap/Shawl Gap hike that I was to lead today were unwilling to risk driving on the roads in the Front Royal area – all except CB, so he and I joined AD and RH to hike with them in Sky Meadows instead.  The snowfall in this area was somewhat heavier than it has been further east and the trails were covered with perhaps an inch or so of snow.  This circumstance had certain advantages –all of the rocks and mud patches were covered up – but it certainly slowed our gaits a bit.  It is no hardship, however, to linger in such surroundings.  Today was not clear and sunny like yesterday but was full of cloud cover and, although not at all gloomy, had a strange muted, twilight-like quality about it.  The views from the overlooks displayed fields shrouded in snow sloping up gently to blue- and violet-tinted mountains of the range in the background.

The following episode shows how the use of opioids is an ongoing problem.  An unnamed 13-year old boy in Hartford, CT was found dead of an overdose of fentanyl on January 15^th, two days after collapsing at Hartford’s Sport and Medical Sciences Academy.  Police searched the school after the student overdosed and found nearly 40 bags of fentanyl in different locations, as well as 100 bags of fentanyl at the student’s home.  Where did he get such a supply of the drug and how was he able to pay for them without his parents noticing?  The answers to these questions are unknown, but it is evident that a massive amount of the drug must be in circulation if a single student, well under age, could lay his heads on so large a cache.

Bhutan has experienced another death as a result of COVID – its fourth during the entire pandemic.  Lotay Tshering, Bhutan’s prime minister – a physician who still conducts surgeries on the weekend as a “de-stresser” from the pressures of office – said this week’s death was “a bitter reminder that we need to do more” and in reacting to the news said that “it felt like a bullet.”  Bhutan has an infection rate of about 0.5% and a death toll equivalent to about 5 per million, one of the lowest worldwide; but its government displays more anxiety about the matter than that of nearly any country.  I wonder what Dr. Tshering thinks of the U.S., with its infection rate of over 22½% and its death toll of over 2700 per million, or of state governors such as Governor Tate Reeves of Mississippi, who justifies his thoroughly irresponsible policies with respect to the disease by referring his constituents’ welfare to Heaven and looking upon that tactic as an excuse for completely disregarding their earthly well-being:  “When you believe in eternal life, when you believe that living on this Earth is but a blip on the screen, then you don’t have to be so scared of things.”

Canadian anti-vaxxers have staged a protest in Ottawa, but their methods are not calculated to win the hearts of their compatriots to their point of view.   They waved swastika flags, urinated on the National War Memorial, danced on the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, and desecrated a statue of Canadian hero Terry Fox.  To round off the demonstration they harassed police and city workers, stealing some of the food that the latter were taking out to feed the homeless at various shelters.  Police are investigating possible criminal charges against the protestors, although at this point none have materialized. But their antics have caused widespread indignation throughout the country, and they probably have injured their cause more thoroughly than the most passionate advocate of vaccine mandates could have done.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 375,099,572; # of deaths worldwide: 5,681,386; # of cases U.S.: 75,578,076; # of deaths; U.S.: 907,190.

Another snowfall – Musings on Thomas Hardy – Another anti-vaxxer succumbs – Potential progress in treatment of long COVID – Ominous signs for the upcoming elections – Evening statistics

We had another snowstorm today, the third one of the season.  It was severe further to the north, but it was light here, with well under an inch of snow.  The snowfall was over before dawn and the roads were already clear when I arose in the morning.  It was not necessary to plow them; the pre-treatment that the roads received earlier this week was sufficient to melt all of the snowfall upon contact. 

The hike that I was supposed to lead today was canceled because everyone dropped out, fearing that driving on the roads would be too uncertain.  It was too fine a day to stay indoors all the time, however, so I went to hike the circuit around Lake Accotink.  What is merely a pleasant walk in other seasons was enchanting today, the reflection of the sunlight from thin cover of white snow on the bushes and vines imparting a bright pearly radiance to the air. 

During some of the remainder of my enforced leisure I finished re-reading Thomas Hardy’s The Woodlanders, a novel that is infinitely superior to the much-vaunted Jude the Obscure in every respect, not least because we are not asked to sympathize with characters so utterly repellent as Sue Bridehead.

It is difficult to make up one’s mind about Hardy.  His writing contains excellences that are uniquely his own and one would be sorry to forego them.  His method of making landscapes as memorable as other novelists’ characterizations has never been surpassed.  It is a commonplace that Egdon Heath in The Return of the Native is practically a character in its own right, but the descriptions of the forest country in which The Woodlanders is set are equally remarkable.  To take a sentence almost at random:

“A lingering wind brought to her ear the creaking sound of two over-crowded branches in the neighboring wood which were rubbing each other into wounds, and other vocalized sorrows of the trees, together with the screech of owls, and the fluttering tumble of some awkward wood-pigeon ill-balanced on its roosting-bough.”

Is there any other writer who can talk so authoritatively about trees having sorrows?  In most novels that use wooded settings at all, the trees are merely part of a backdrop; in Hardy’s novels we are continually reminded that they are as alive as we are.

Then, too, Hardy can be very funny.  True, he doesn’t often choose to be, but when he does he can craft dialog that would not be out of place in a vaudeville act.

“’And I knowed a woman, and the husband o’ her went away for four-and-twenty year,’ said the bark-ripper. ‘And one night he came home when she was sitting by the fire, and thereupon he sat down himself on the other side of the chimney-corner. “Well,” says she, “have ye got any news?” “Don’t know as I have,” says he; “have you?” “No,” says she, “except that my daughter by my second husband was married last month, which was a year after I was made a widow by him.” “Oh! Anything else?” he says. “No”’ says she. And there they sat, one on each side of that chimney-corner, and were found by their neighbors sound asleep in their chairs, not having known what to talk about at all.’”

One is very often brought up, however, by a sense of being manipulated either to approve of certain characters or to condemn others when readers’ estimates of them clearly differ from these characters’ author.

We get a hint of this in The Mayor of Casterbridge, in the passage describing the aftermath of Lucetta’s death from a premature miscarriage:

“Time, ‘in his own grey style,’ taught Farfrae how to estimate his experience of Lucetta – all that it was, and all that it was not. There are men whose hearts insist upon a dogged fidelity to some image or cause thrown by chance into their keeping, long after their judgment has pronounced it no rarity – even the reverse, indeed, and without them the band of the worthy is incomplete. But Farfrae was not of those. It was inevitable that the insight, briskness, and rapidity of his nature should take him out of the dead blank which his loss threw about him. He could not but perceive that by the death of Lucetta he had exchanged a looming misery for a simple sorrow. After that revelation of her history, which must have come sooner or later in any circumstances, it was hard to believe that life with her would have been productive of further happiness.”

What dreadful crime has Mrs. Donald Farfrae committed to make her widower believe that by losing her only a few months after his marriage he has “exchanged a looming misery for a simple sorrow”?  Murder? Arson?  Destroying a village’s water supply?  No – none of these.  Lucetta’s offence is that she once conducted an illicit affair before her marriage.  The affair ended well before she first met Farfrae.  She has been devoted to Farfrae from the day of her marriage onwards and indeed has idolized him completely.  There is not a hint that she was tempted to commit adultery with her former lover or even that she was remotely so inclined.  But it makes no difference.  She was not a virgin when she married Farfrae; and that, according to Farfrae and apparently according to Hardy as well, puts her beyond the pale.

Of course Angel Clare from Tess of the d’Urbervilles is the most famous offender of this type.  After pursuing Tess with a passionate courtship that lasts for months, he virtually bundles her out of the house within a week after their marriage as a result of her confession that she had had intercourse with another man – some four years before her marriage to Clare took place, and as a rape victim to boot.  Hardy seems uneasily aware that such an attitude would seem overly severe even to late Victorians:

“Some might risk the odd paradox that with more animalism he would have been the nobler man. We do not say it. Yet Clare’s love was doubtless ethereal to a fault, imaginative to impracticability. With these natures, corporal presence is something less appealing than corporal absence; the latter creating an ideal presence that conveniently drops the defects of the real.”

Paradoxical or not, I for one have no hesitation in saying that Clare’s conduct is as ignoble as can possibly be conceived.  And it is not a question of “animalism”:  common humanity would dictate that a victim of rape receive support and consolation from all of her associates, let alone from the man who has recently become her husband. 

However, Angel Clare at least comes to realize that he has been in the wrong and eventually returns to Tess to ask forgiveness from her:  too late of course to be of any use.  Still, he deserves credit for trying.  Far worse is Sue Bridehead, who mistreats her husband from beginning to end.  What a mauling Richard Phillotson gets from his wife and Jude between them! 

Discussing the sin of Pride in Mere Christianity, C. S. Lewis remarks:  “power is what Pride really enjoys:  there is nothing makes a man feel so superior to others as being able to move them about like toy soldiers. What makes a pretty girl spread misery wherever she goes by collecting admirers?  Certainly not her sexual instinct: that kind of girl is quite often sexually frigid. It is Pride.”

And that describes Sue Bridehead to perfection.  She is sexually frigid – Hardy is quite explicit on that point – but she openly enjoys men’s attention and goes out of her way to procure it.  She strings along both Jude and Phillotson, but when she makes the discovery that Jude has been previously married she immediately becomes engaged to Phillotson without having the smallest amount of affection for him.  Eventually she finds his embraces so distasteful that she persuades him to divorce her and goes to live with Jude instead.  She claims that she intends to marry Jude sooner or later but continually puts off the ceremony for no viable reason, even after bearing two of his children – rather an extreme level of reluctance to commitment.  Later still, when she encounters tragedy and loses her children, she succumbs to religious mania and under its influence persuades Phillotson to take her back as his wife again.  Regrettably, Phillotson does not respond to this arrangement as I was yearning for him to do – something along the lines of “Sorry, no can do, I’ve moved on to other things.  So long, farewell, parting is such sweet sorrow, but not from you.”  Alas, Phillotson takes her on again, even though she specifies that there is to be no sex between them and even though she persists in meeting with Jude in secret after her remarriage.  Later still, she does yet another volte face and decides that it is her duty to allow Phillotson into the marriage bed, but she does so in a manner that displays such unmistakable aversion to his physical touch that it is unlikely that any bouts of licit intercourse between this pair in future will provide much satisfaction to either of them. 

I am simply astounded when critics describe this neurotic, pretentious, manipulative, egocentric, vacillating, emotionally unstable woman as an example of the so-called “New Woman” of the late decades of the 19^th century who was making energetic and successful efforts to obtain better education and a greater variety of employment opportunities.  She certainly is nothing like Mary Barfoot and Rhoda Nunn in George Gissing’s The Odd Women:  strong, capable, intelligent, vigorous women who have definite objectives in life and who mold their own destinies without looking for support from anyone else. 

To be fair, Sue Bridehead is a character in a Thomas Hardy novel; and in Hardy’s universe, no one, man or woman, is capable of molding his or her own destiny.  Sooner or later circumstances will intervene to thwart his or her goals; Hardy always sees to that.  It is very strange that the heroines of the novels of Jane Austen, whose circumstances are considerably more restricted than those of any of Hardy’s heroines, give the impression of being much more in control of their lives. 

And so it is that when reading Thomas Hardy one must always be prepared for a jarring note of this sort to interfere with appreciating so much that is admirable in his work.  He writes much that is insightful, much that is perceptive, much that is moving, much that is vivid, much that is of historical interest; but sooner or later one comes across praise for conduct or attitudes that are far from commendable, severe censure for what are minor peccadillos at the worst, and twists of fate that are obviously contrived to ensure that the characters will be as unhappy as possible.  For those who are not yet acquainted with Hardy and who wish to sample his work, one might do worse than to begin with The Woodlanders, in which these characteristic flaws are less prominent than in other works and in which one can luxuriate in the descriptions of the forest and of the activities associated with the orchard and timber industries in such a region.

From these literary excursuses I move on to current developments:

Robert LaMay, a state trooper in the state of Washington, was fired in October for failing to comply with Governor Jay Inslee’s mandate for all state employees to get vaccinated.  He left a departing message In the form of a youtube video that went viral, in which he said:  “After 22 years of serving the citizens of the state of Washington, I’m being asked to leave because I am dirty.  This is the last time you’ll hear me in a state patrol car.  And Jay Inslee can kiss my ass.”  For some unknown reason, Governor Inslee failed to avail himself of this unique opportunity and now it is unobtainable; three months afterwards, LaMay contracted the virus and died from it. 

Some progress has been made in isolating factors that determine who is susceptible to long COVID.  Four factors have been identified:  1) autoantibodies, antibodies that mistakenly attack healthy parts of the body. Autoantibodies are associated with autoimmune diseases, such as lupus, but they may be present in persons who are not afflicted with such diseases as well; 2) the reactivation of a different virus called Epstein-Barr Virus (EBV), which is extremely common, infecting up to 90% of people at some point, and often causing only mild symptoms.  If reactivated as a result of contracting COVID, it may increase the possibility of lingering COVID symptoms as well; 3) the degree to which the COVID virus is present in the blood, a factor that is known as the “viral load”; 4) the presence of Type 2 diabetes.  The findings are tentative, but they may eventually point the way for more effective measures of treating persistent COVID symptoms. 

Poor old Biden keeps blundering along and is steadily alienating the mainstream voters in the process.  Isaiah Carter, a blue-collar worker who has consistently voted Democratic, is a case in point.  He recently gave an interview with Fox News in which he registered disgust with the manner in which Biden has made concessions to the extreme so-called Progressive wing of the party.  In particular, he cites the manner in which the party promotes critical race theory.  He himself is African-American, but, in his words, “I don’t like the idea of kids – Black kids, White kids, whatever – separated by race and then made to feel like one group is oppressed and the other group is not.”  He also criticized the withdrawal from Afghanistan – not the withdrawal in itself but the inept way in which it was handled – and the promotion of the progressives’ gender identify agenda, which he claims has injured women’s rights and has negatively affected young children who are being subjected to gender ideology discussions in schools across the country.  With all of these positions I myself concur, and so I suspect do the majority of American voters.  Carter went on to say:

“Democrats, I need you to listen to me carefully.  The fact that I, a blue-collar Democratic worker, am speaking to Fox News, should scare you.  The fact that they’re willing to talk to me and MSNBC and CNN are not, that is a problem.  That should tell you all how far we’ve fallen away from the common man.”

It does scare me.  At this rate the Democrats will almost certainly lose the upcoming elections this year.  And if the Republicans regain control of the Senate and the House, that looming baneful influence of Donald Trump will return – not that it has ever gone away completely, but it will be in a position of power again.  It all goes back to what my friend JN – also a blue-collar lifetime Democrat – has remarked to me some months ago:  there is no centrist party left. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 373,006,035; # of deaths worldwide: 5,676,020; # of cases U.S.: 75,481,122; # of deaths; U.S.: 906,861.