Journal of the Plague Year, COVID-19 Version

The Arlington Triangle Loop hike – Factors in determining the refusal to take vaccines –Denial is not just a river in Egypt – New Year’s celebrations – Evening statistics

The Vigorous Hikers went on the Arlington Triangle Loop hike today, as we do every year on the occasion of the last Tuesday before New Year’s.  There were surprisingly few participants this time:  only seven in all, including TK (the hike leader), and usually we get about twice that number.  The small size of the group meant that we could go faster than we ordinarily do.  The hike is over 18 miles; we started a little after 8:30 and ended at 2:00, with a break of about 30 minutes for lunch; thus we took about 5 hours for the entire hike and therefore must have averaged above 3.5 MPH.  One jogger along the way, seeing our steady determined pace, asked with curiosity whether we were training for an event.  It was cool and rather overcast, but not cold, with occasional patches of sun, and all in all was quite invigorating.  It is a hike best done in the company of others, for it consists mainly of walking on pavement and parts of it, such as the section of the trail that bypasses a waste treatment plant, are not especially scenic.  But it provides expansive views of the Potomac and of the little valleys of Arlington concealed in the folds of the numerous county trails.

During one part of the hike TK and I conversed about those who refuse to accept the vaccines.  He is somewhat to the right of me politically, but he had no hesitation in getting vaccinated and the same is true for many of his friends whose political stance is similar to his.  He believes that the chief factor that influences people about their choice in this matter is less a matter of politics than whether they are living in urban or rural areas, since the unvaccinated tend to be residents of less densely populated regions.  There is something in this – as my friends and I noted when we were visiting Idaho, it was easy to understand why people there felt less urgency to observe COVID-related mandates when they lived in small, sparsely populated towns with miles of open country between and thus did not have many encounters with potentially infected strangers.  There seems little doubt, however, that the majority of governors who have declined to enforce vaccine mandates are overwhelming Republican. 

Frederic Sinistra, a worldwide kickboxing champion whose nickname in sporting circles was “The Undertaker,” was among those who didn’t believe that the virus is dangerous and that vaccination is unnecessary.  He stated that anyone who contracts the virus can beat it easily.  In November, Sinistra contracted COVID and his condition worsened in a matter of days.   He refused to be hospitalized but the united efforts of his wife, coach, and close friends forced him to check in anyway.  He was in intensive care for several days, using breathing tubes, but at one point he insisted upon leaving, saying that he decided to treat the “little virus” by himself at home.  He announced that he was recovering and on December 13^th claimed that he felt well and that his struggle with the virus had made him stronger than ever.  Two days later, his wife announced that Sinistra died as a result of the disease. 

Dr. Fauci has recommended against participating in New Year’s festivities on account of the burgeoning omicron variant.  I doubt if many will follow that advice.  I myself plan to attend a gathering on January 1^st, although I will say in my defense that the event is relatively small (between 20 and 30 people) and that all of the participants are vaccinated.  Our hosts have requested, in addition, that guests get tested before the party as well.  In general the populace of the DC metro area is willing to do what is necessary to contain the virus.  Two-thirds of the entire population (including those under 18) are fully vaccinated and masks are worn indoors everywhere.  But that does not mean that we are prepared to allow our entire social life to grind to a halt.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 283,153,861; # of deaths worldwide: 5,430,287; # of cases U.S.: 54,141,366; # of deaths; U.S.: 841,977.

A monument hike – More scouting – An unexpected instance of the pandemic becoming useful – Alex Jones disowns his former idol – Evening statistics

Another urban hike yesterday, this one associated with going to various monuments.  Washington of course has several famous monuments (the Lincoln Memorial, the Jefferson Memorial, etc.) , but this hike gave us a glimpse of several whose existence I had not known about before, such as the one for Eisenhower (erected a bare 15 months ago) and the one for Native-American war veterans.  In particular, the monument to Ulysses Grant (in the proximity of the Capitol) is an astonishing work.  Not only does it contain the largest equestrian statue in the country, but the Artillery Group and the Cavalry Group that accompany it provide a wonderful example of sculpture being employed to convey motion – in this case, the frantic motion of war maneuvers.  It was a lovely day as well, slightly cooler than the preceding day, but with air like crystal and warm blue skies.  Afterwards we went to the apartment of EF and MJ, who led the hike, and enjoyed their hospitality, snacking on crudités and cheeses and crackers and chocolates and English biscuits, accompanied by wine or beer, as we sat on their rooftop terrace and gazed upon the vista of the Potomac and the metro area along the riverbanks below. 

Today the weather was took a turn for the worse, becoming rather chilly and damp.  Nonetheless I went out to verify alternatives to the crossings of Scott’s Run and Pimmit Run on the route of the McLean Loop hike.  It was rather frustrating; some areas of the trails on these alternatives are greatly overgrown, and I will probably have to go again armed with a pair of shears to clear away some of the vines and brambles before I can lead the hike on the 11^th. 

An unnamed woman is contemplating turning the pandemic’s propensity to disrupt family gatherings to her advantage.  Both her own relatives and her husband’s have invited themselves to her home for Christmas, with seven dogs between them.  “The last thing on Earth I want to do tomorrow is cook for 16 (fussy and uninvited) people,” she complained in a Christmas Eve post on the British parenting forum Mumsnet. “And they all wonder why I don’t like Christmas. It’s the same every year. Can’t tell them to leave us alone for the day or come for an hour or something as would create so much drama.”  So instead she is wondering whether she tell them that she tested positive for the COVID virus in order to discourage their visits.  She received 120 replies, the overwhelming majority of which enthusiastically endorsed this plan.  I suppose it is one way of coping with the situation, although it does raise the question of how she will be able to avoid similarly unwelcome visits next year.

Alex Jones is the creator of the Infowars network, which, among its other claims to fame, was instrumental in stirring up the rioters on January 6^th to participate in Trump’s attempted government takeover.  He himself spoke at Lafayette Square Park that day to encourage them in their ransacking. Trump’s recent endorsement of the vaccines, however, seems to have dampened his enthusiasm for his hero somewhat: 

“You are either completely ignorant about the so-called vaccine gene therapy you helped ram through with Operation Warp Speed, or you are the most evil man who has ever lived to push this toxic poison on the public and to attack your constituents when they simply try to save their lives and the lives of others.” 

This anti-vaxxer sentiment is to be expected from Jones, a self-described “paleo-conservative” – by which he means, I think, that his political platform would not be out of place among the Neanderthal communities of the early Stone Age.  The fact that a man notorious for his promotion of conspiracy theories and for his dismissal of any journalism not in accordance with his politics as “fake news” has turned upon Donald Trump is an illustration of the old adage that two of a trade never agree. 

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 280,315,202; # of deaths worldwide: 5,416,273; # of cases U.S.: 53,222,424; # of deaths; U.S.: 837,854.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 281,636,673; # of deaths worldwide: 5,422,116; # of cases U.S.: 53,625,098; # of deaths; U.S.: 839,155.

Christmas in the DC metro area – Guarded hopefulness concerning the omicron variant – Empty traffic arteries and city streets – Decreased White House social activities – Evening statistics

It has been a merry Christmas in a tranquil sort of way.  In the morning I went with various other Wanderbirds on an urban hike that looped from Dupont Circle through the Kalorama area and along the Kringle and Tregaron trails.  Washington is not an especially large city by American standards, either in area or in population, but it has so much variety that one can embark upon hike after hike within its boundaries and encounter something new each time.  At one point, for instance, we passed by a carefully preserved example of an overthrust fault, a type of fault occurs when the upper side of the fault is pushed up through constant compression.  It was the first time I knew that such an example existed in the city, although as it happens there are several overthrust faults have occurred in the area.  As we went through the Kalorama area, we saw several diplomatic residences, a few embassies, and several historic homes, and we also walked along the Taft Bridge, which carries Connecticut Avenue over Rock Creek Park, readily distinguishable by its concrete lions.  Towards the end of the hike we descended along the Spanish Steps, which were created because the escarpment between R and S Streets was too steep to make construction of a roadway practicable without destroying adjoining buildings.  The steps were built to provide a pedestrian walkway and were modeled after the Spanish Steps in Rome, although they of course are on a considerably smaller scale.

In the evening I attended a family dinner with CC, not a noisy jollification in the Dickensian style, but simply a quiet, sociable meal with that aimed at nothing more than providing delicious food and interesting conversation.  These, however, were supplied in abundance. 

CC and I indulged in the hope that the omicron variant will prove to be less dangerous than the other, earlier variants; and this expectation may not be entirely without cause.  At this point the variant is sufficiently common to provide a fair amount of data for analysis, and preliminary studies indicate that the omicron variant is less efficient than others in invading the lungs, despite being more readily infectious.  The increased number of infections will still place a great burden on hospitals during the weeks to come, but if omicron becomes the dominant variant there is a good chance that the death rate from COVID will decline significantly.

But even though the atmosphere was much less tense today than it was at the same time last year, the effects of the pandemic were felt.  Hardly anyone was on the roads today.  One would expect lighter traffic than usual on Christmas Day; but still during most years there is a good deal of visiting relatives and friends and neighbors, traveling back and forth among the various neighborhoods.  Today the Beltway was so lightly used that I was able to drive on it using cruise control and I drove into downtown with as little difficulty as I would experience in a much smaller town. Again, during the hike we encountered very few people on the streets.  Several stores were closed for the day, to be sure, but ordinarily Dupont Circle is bustling during the holidays; whereas today it was eerily quiet. 

The White House has been affected as well:  in place of the usual parties with overflowing buffet tables that have characterized it during previous Christmases, Joe and Jill Biden have observed Christmas with a limited number of food-free open houses for invited guests to gaze at the Christmas trees and other decorations.  Various other major social events for the coming year have been canceled, including the White House ball for the nation’s governors and the Easter Egg Roll. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:  279,829,699; # of deaths worldwide: 5,413,118; # of cases U.S.: 53,026,765; # of deaths; U.S.: 837,779.

On the McLean Loop – Trump vs. his base – A mistaken delivery – The one unmistakable symptom of omicron – Evening statistics

I scouted the McLean Loop hike today, partly because I am scheduled to lead it for the Vigorous Hikers in 2½ weeks and partly, I must confess, because scouting it before the New Year, along with the hikes I’m scheduled to do tomorrow, Sunday, and Tuesday, will push my mileage total to just over 2000 for the year.  But, frivolous though this last reason might be, it turned out to be a good thing that I investigated the route, because the trails have altered over the past few months.  The path the led to the underpass at Old Dominion Road has been closed off, and it has become necessary to devise an alternate route from the starting point at Balls Hill Road to Scotts Run Nature Preserve.  Then, too, I just barely managed to cross Pimmit Run.  Despite the dry weather we’ve been undergoing lately, it was a challenge to find a series of rocks to use without getting my feet wet.  If even a very moderate rain occurs a day or so before the actual hike date, that crossing will also have to be bypassed.  After the hike I went over the local maps to work out these alternate routes, and I will have to verify them on foot before the day of the hike with the group.

It is possible that instead lawsuits becoming Trump’s downfall, his own followers will accomplish this feat.  After his announcement that he has received the vaccine and a booster as well, many of the extreme right groups who have idolized him up to this point are now fuming at him.  A typical reaction is that of the recently subpoenaed “Stop the Steal” organizer Ali Alexander:  “Trump, stop. Just stop. Have your position (backed by Fauci) and allow us to have ours (which is backed by science). This losing is getting boomer level annoying.”  The events that led the supremely incompetent Trump to occupy a position of power at a time when the nation was at its most urgent need for genuine leadership might in some lights be considered a tragedy, but everything he touches eventually turns into farce.

Farce, however, is not limited to the anti-vaxxers of our own nation.  In Great Britain they reacted against a statement from Alan Shearer, a football pundit who formerly was a well-known Newcastle and Blackburn Rovers striker.  Shearer simply urged everyone who is eligible to get the vaccine and the booster as well.  Some anti-vaxxer protestors placed what they called “legal papers” (which indeed use the template of various legal documents but which have no validity whatsoever) into his external letterbox – or at least what they believed to be his letterbox.  A person who lives in the area, after seeing the footage of them inserting the letters into the letterbox, exclaimed, “That’s an old address they have for him.”  The anti-vaxxers’ research capabilities as to the location of their targets appears to be on a par with their scientific capabilities generally, as well as their legal expertise.

The symptoms of the omicron variant are elusive.  The shortness of breath and the loss of the senses of taste and smell are common to most variants, but they are present much less often for omicron.  Instead the symptoms greatly resemble those of the flu and the common cold:  nasal congestion, coughing, and so on.  But there is one symptom that is always prominent:  fatigue. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 279,324,374; # of deaths worldwide: 5,408,741; # of cases U.S.: 52,986,307; # of deaths; U.S.: 837,671.

Loss of nearly two years of life expectancy – Another rioter sentenced – Evening statistics

The average life expectancy in the U.S. was 78.8 years in 2019.  It is now 77.0 years.  This difference represents the largest drop in the nation has had since WWII.  The deaths from the pandemic are one factor, of course, but the pandemic has contributed indirectly as well; overdose deaths, as previously noted, have skyrocketed over the past year, and deaths from long-standing ailments such as diabetes have risen, in part because overburdened hospitals have been giving them less attention.  There were more than 3.38 million deaths in the U.S. last year, about 530,000 more than there were in 2019.  Of that 3.38 million, more than 350,000 deaths were attributed to COVID-19.  The pandemic thus is responsible for about 10.4% of all deaths in the U.S. in 2020.  One wonders what the figures for 2021 will reveal once they are tallied.  The cumulative death toll from COVID is already over 830,000, which means that over 480,000 deaths from COVID occurred this past year. 

Another mobster – oh, sorry, I meant of course to say “tourist” – has been convicted and sentenced today for his participation in the January 6^th riot.  Devlyn Thompson, aged 28, has received three years and 10 months in prison followed by three years of supervised release for assaulting a police officer with a metal baton during the confrontation between police and the rioters in a tunnel that lasted for more than two hours.  His defense attorney pleaded for a lesser sentence on the grounds that Thompson is autistic.  This argument was coldly received, it being pointed out that many others are autistic and have nonetheless refrained from committing assault and battery.  Thompson, it may be noted, was earning about $90,000 annually:  yet another example of one of the many members of a privileged class who masqueraded as a member of the proletariat on that occasion.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 278,460,404; # of deaths worldwide: 5,399,906; # of cases U.S.: 52,768,927; # of deaths; U.S.: 834,190.

A home COVID test – The vigilance of QAnon – Encouraging developments in South Africa – Our declining population – Evening statistics

I took a home test for COVID this evening.  It was surprisingly easy to follow, consisting of a nasal swab followed by swirling the absorbent tip of the swab in an extraction buffer tube to collect the specimen, and then squeezing a few drops of the resultant solution into a kit with a well for collecting the sample and a window displaying the test results once the sample is analyzed.  It takes about 15 minutes to obtain the results.  The window has two markers, “C” for “control” and “T” for “test.”  When a line appears beside the “C” marker, it means that an adequate amount of the specimen has been collected.  A line appearing beside the “T” marker signifies a positive test result.  The desired result, obviously, is to see a line beside the “C” marker and none beside the “T” marker, which I am happy to say was the outcome in this case.  I have wanted to obtain a home test kit for some time, because I had spent so many days away from home in the early part of December – and the last days of the trip were spent in Vernon, NJ, where the attitude towards COVID-related restrictions was a bit too nonchalant for my taste.  But home test kits are difficult to obtain in this area; they sell out within hours after the pharmacies receive a shipment of them.  I obtained the one I used this evening from CC, who had recently visited West Virginia.  In many parts of that state people’s attitudes are as phlegmatic as they are in Vernon and test kits remain on the shelves for days as a result.  So she was able to purchase several without any difficulty. 

David Trent, a QAnon personality who has 20,000 followers on his Bitchute channel, has frequently accused Democrats, and Biden in particular, of being pedophiles working as part of a global child sex trafficking ring.  He has accused them of being as culpable as one David Todeschini, a sexual predator who was convicted in 1999 of raping an 8-year-old boy, and who then spent almost five years in prison as a result of his sentencing – hey, wait a minute!  David Trent and David Todeschini are one and the same person.  “Todeschini” is his real surname, while “David Trent” is simply an alias.  He was listed on New York’s sex offender registry as a “sexually violent offender,” meaning he is at “high risk of repeat offense and a threat to public safety.”  When he moved to North Carolina 18 months ago, he was promptly listed on that state’s sex offender registry as well.  However, he has concealed these notable achievements from his followers, doubtless out of modesty. 

Encouraging news is emerging from South Africa.  The omicron variant appears to be past its peak already.  The country reported a record-high 27,000 new COVID-19 cases last Thursday, almost all of them of the omicron strain.  That number, however, dropped to 15,424 on Tuesday.  There are some caveats.  Daily virus counts can be unreliable, as they may be affected by uneven testing, reporting delays, and other fluctuation.  In addition, the average age of the population in South Africa is 27, considerably younger than that of the U.S. or most European countries.  Still, it is possible that the dominance of the omicron variant will be brief in other nations as well.

We are seeing the long-term results of our long struggle with the COVID virus by now.  The United States population grew by only 0.1% within the past year, with an additional 392,665 added to the U.S. population from July 2020 to July 2021.  This amount represents the lowest rate of population increase since the nation was founded.  As the pandemic recedes, the death toll will certainly decrease, but population growth will in all likelihood remain low on account of fewer births.  Our population is aging, the number of women of child-bearing age is proportionately lower to the total population than it has been in the past, and many young families are deferring having children or even foregoing parenthood altogether.  Almost half of New York City mothers who had been trying to become pregnant before the pandemic began in the U.S. in March 2020 stopped in the first few months of the outbreak.  In more than two dozen states, deaths have outnumbered births.  Florida in particular has been hard-hit:  deaths exceeded births in Florida by more than 45,000 people. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 277,478,586; # of deaths worldwide: 5,392,723; # of cases U.S.: 52,506,200; # of deaths; U.S.: 832,939.

The winter solstice – The omicron variant begins to expand in the U.S. – A new cure from QAnon – A family determined to stay together – Evening statistics

It is the winter solstice today.  I am reminded of a matter that has puzzled me for some time:  unlike so many other cultures and religions, Judaism has nothing to commemorate it.  (“But what about Hanukkah?” I can hear some readers saying.  Hanukkah, I’m afraid, is quite a minor holiday, created in response to an event that is recorded in the Apocrypha, not in the Torah or even in any of the other books incorporated into the Scriptures; and it was thrust into prominence only in recent times, when American Jews felt impelled to set up some sort of celebration to counterbalance the national Christmas festivities.  The present-day Hanukkah is not quite as artificial a construct as Kwanzaa, but it comes close to being so.)  It is rather strange.  Judaism, of course, uses a lunar calendar that is ill-adapted to observances of solar phenomena.  But Pesach, Shavuot, and Succoth correspond roughly to the vernal equinox, summer solstice, and autumnal equinox respectively and probably these holidays to some extent originated were connected with them.  Succoth in particular certainly began as a harvest festival.  Why the winter solstice is omitted from such commemorations I do not know.  Perhaps the priestly authorities wished to dissociate themselves from the wildness that some of the celebrations from other cultures on this occasion tended to produce.  It seems a pity.  I always feel a sense of lightening as we enter the time of “Sunreturn” (to use Ursula K. Leguin’s wonderful term for the winter solstice observances in her “Earthsea” series) and it seems to me that the beginning of the lengthening of daylight hours is as good an occasion as any for rendering up prayers of gratitude.  But such matters are not for me to decide.

It seems likely that the next several weeks will be difficult ones.  The COVID virus, among its other characteristics, is seasonal and it spreads more quickly during winter. The omicron variant is gaining headway in this country and while it now appears to be less severe than other variants it is far from benign.  Already it has accounted for about 73% of the new infections over the past week.  The first reported death in the U.S. from the omicron variant has been reported today.  The person concerned, a man from Texas in his 50s, had underlying medical conditions and he was unvaccinated as well. 

An unnamed woman abandoned her husband and children in Delaware to follow QAnon leader Michael Brian Protzman to Dallas.  Her behavior afterwards suggests that her relatives have undergone no great loss as a result of her departure.  She has been proudly serving a mixture in the communal punch bowl to which she has added chlorine dioxide before distributing it among the group she has joined. Chlorine dioxide is mainly used as bleach and (using carefully limited amounts) for water purification. It is totally worthless as a treatment for the disease (although it has been illicitly sold as a cure for many others besides COVID, including autism, cancer, HIV/AIDS, hepatitis, and flu) but it does possess an abundance of harmful side effects, such as respiratory failure, abnormal heart rhythms, life-threatening low blood pressure, acute liver failure, and the rapid destruction of red blood cells.  She and the others in her group, being of course determined anti-vaxxers, gulp down her festive wassail with pleasure, in the conviction that they have found the perfect preventative; and it may be said with some assurance that if the disease does not carry them off, this remedy will.

Here is a story that is both sad and inspiriting.  Cindy Dawkins, an immigrant from the Bahamas on the verge of receiving American citizenship, died of COVID at age 50 in August.  She was a single parent and she left behind four children, varying in ages from 12 to 24.  The two elder siblings wished to live with their younger sisters and look after them, and a judge in the Palm Beach County Family Court recently approved the request of Jenny Dawkins, the eldest of the four, to be the legal guardian of Zoe and Sierra, the younger sisters, while Tre (aged 20) is also living with them and contributing to support of the household.  It is easy to forget, in concentrating merely on those who have been afflicted with the disease and have died from it or become permanently disabled, the numerous bereaved who are left behind, and of the number of orphans in particular.  It has been estimated that COVID has caused 167,000 American children to lose a parent or in-home caretaker.  Moreover, various racial and ethnic groups have been disproportionately affected. For every one white American child orphaned as a result of COVID, there are 2.5 Black and Hispanic American children suffering the loss of a caretaker. These children are primarily young, with 70% aged 13 or younger.  In this particular case, Jenny and Tre are coping with the situation with a resolution that most people of mature years might envy.  They have entry-level jobs – Jenny is a dental assistant, Tre is in telemarketing – and it is a struggle for them to pay their bills; but nonetheless they were elated by the court decision that enabled them to stay together.  “Knowing we aren’t going to be separated — it’s a huge weight off my shoulders,” said Jenny. “Mom used to say she didn’t care if we lived in one bedroom, as long as we were together.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 276,566,933; # of deaths worldwide: 5,384,619; # of cases U.S.: 52,253,848; # of deaths; U.S.: 830,990.

Banshee Reeks Nature Preserve – Holiday cards – The surge of COVID in Europe – Marjorie Taylor Greene and other anti-vaxxers – The anti-vaxxers part company with their idol – Evening statistics

I went out with the Wanderbirds on a new hike yesterday, in the Banshee Reeks Nature Preserve.  It is a fairly recently formed park area, having been established as a nature preserve in 1999.  Previously, it was a working farm that goes back to the 19^th century.  The land was purchased for farm use in 1841 and remained operative until 1979.  The nature preserve contains the remains of several buildings used as barns, silos, storage areas, etc., and it skirts along the bank of Goose Creek.  The creek is somewhat narrower here than it is at its merging with the Potomac River further to the east and is clear, shallow, and meandering.  The trails go through a varied mixture of meadows, forest, and riverine scenery; and they are very well-tended, having been cleared of leaf cover and any type of overgrowth.  Most of the attendees covered about 7½ miles in two loops, but six of us added a third loop for a total of 10 miles in all.  This was an “official” Wanderbirds hike, as opposed to the somewhat informal meetups in which I participated throughout most of this year.  The club is actively organizing hikes now, even though it will not be able to use a bus for some time to come.

There was a visit to a winery after the hike, but I reluctantly passed it up.  After the hike I came home directly and spent the rest of the afternoon and the evening addressing holiday cards. These are personalized cards designed by my brother, who is an animator.  He has been working very hard at various projects over the past several months, and as a result the cards were completed a bit later than usual.  It is not of course necessary that they all be mailed out before Christmas, for my brother always uses the theme of the old year being displaced by the new one to signify the holiday period that generally occurs between Christmas and New Year’s.  But I prefer not to drag out the process of addressing them if possible.  There were nearly 200 of them to send out this year, and I spent much of Saturday afternoon, Sunday afternoon, and the better part of today completing them.  I now use a newsletter to insert into the cards in order to standardize the process a bit, but it still can be fairly time-consuming.

It is a useful practice, however.  In the U.S. it is particularly applicable.  We live in a huge country, with contacts spread out over hundreds of miles.  After retirement, especially, people tend to move away from the area where they have worked and settle in all corners of the country.  Without this mechanism of ensuring that we hear from one another at least once a year, many of the relationships enjoyed with former colleagues would die of inanition.

RB told me some distressing news at the end of the hike.  She originally came from Denmark and she gave me a disturbing report of the results of the new surge in COVID there.  For quite a while Denmark had appeared to be in excellent condition with respect to the virus.  In September it had had well under 1,000 new cases per day and only a handful of deaths.  I have, as I admit, paid little attention to what has been going on in other countries in recent months; the problems confronting our own occupying most of my notice.  But of course they are all inter-related.  We cannot hope to overcome the pandemic until it becomes less active in all countries, not merely in our own.  I knew, in a vague sort of way, that European nations in generally have been undergoing a great surge of new cases but the issue was brought home to me in much more vivid hues when I heard about some of the figures.  Denmark, with a population of less than 6 million, at one point was experiencing as many as 12000 new cases per day. 

Some of RB’s relatives came down with the virus even though they were vaccinated, although they have since recovered.  This scenario appears to be typical.  The vaccines have, by and large, been showing their efficacy:  despite the number of so-called breakthrough infections, the seriously ill are generally to be found among the unvaccinated.  Still, the situation is far from optimal.  Anyone who contracts the disease, vaccinated or not, must spend at least a few days in a state of wearing suspense as to whether its effects will prove to be long-lasting or even mortal. 

Upon learning that Cory Booker has had a breakthrough case of COVID, which was attended by very mild symptoms, Marjorie Taylor Greene tweeted “How many breakthrough cases of polio are there?”  This remark, of course, ignores the fact that the polio vaccine won almost universal acceptance when it was introduced to the public and that polio subsided in a remarkably short time after it was disseminated, as well as the fact the breakthrough infections have for the most part have been fairly mild and that the overwhelming majority of the hospitalized are unvaccinated.  Which leads up to the question that has been begging to be asked for months . . .

What the hell is the matter with these people?

How have these fanatics imbibed the lunatic notion that a vaccine with proven effectiveness is more dangerous than the disease itself? – a disease, it may be added, that is responsible for at least 5 million deaths worldwide, at least officially (the figure is almost certainly a gross under-estimate).   It would tempting to declare that this is yet another one of the many falsehoods Trump has administered to his gullible supporters, but that simply is not the case.  Trump in fact earnestly wishes to take the credit for introducing vaccines into the U.S.; and he appears to realize, in addition, that the deaths of the unvaccinated in this country have been occurring chiefly among his supporters.  In an attempt to promote the vaccines, he publicly revealed at a rally in Dallas that he received a booster shot.  The announcement was greeted with boos from the crowd.  So on this issue Trump’s own base are at odds with the man who they claim is infallible. 

In the meantime the unvaccinated continue to drop like flies.  Nuria Daniela Gomes of Liverpool, England, is a typical example.  She was 38 years old, fit and healthy, and on that account she thought that she was safe in declining the vaccine, being concerned about its long-term effects.  She tested positive for the virus on December 2^nd and developed symptoms (fatigue and a persistent cough) a day later, but insisted that she felt fine.  A few days afterwards, her daughters noticed that she was struggling to breathe when they turned in to sleep; they shared the same bedroom.  They turned on the light to investigate and saw that, in one of the daughters’ words, “her hands were purple, her lips were purple, and her eyes looked huge.”  They immediately called the hospital but Gomes never made it there; she died before the paramedics could arrive.  The date of her death was December 9^th, just a week after she received her test results.  As a man sows, so shall he reap; such is the poisonous fruit of the anti-vaxxers’ rotten seed.

At this point about 40% of the world’s population is unvaccinated, sometimes out of necessity (many of the Third World nations have difficulty procuring the vaccines) and sometimes out of sheer obstinacy, like those whom Greene is attempting to encourage.  So the COVID virus has plenty of material to work with, an ample laboratory to use for developing new mutations.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 274,995,307; # of deaths worldwide: 5,370,105; # of cases U.S.: 51,765,714; # of deaths; U.S.: 827,323.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 275,735,365; # of deaths worldwide: 5,376,105; # of cases U.S.: 52,022,781; # of deaths; U.S.: 828,543.

It was rather a grayish day, but I went out nonetheless to scout the hike scheduled for the Capital Hiking Club along Riverbend and Great Falls Parks.  Even on days with dun-colored skies the falls in Mather’s Gorge never fail to cause an instinctive thrill.  As usual, the scene was enlivened by the sight of kayakers in their colorful vessels and life-vests navigating the narrow straits and pools of foaming water among the falls.  I’m happy to say that the exercises prescribed by the physical therapist have already caused the knee pain to disappear completely and that I no longer have the slight hobble in my gait that has been troubling me for the past couple of weeks.  It was a worthwhile excursion:  I have not been therefore for several months, and I had forgotten the details about accessing the Bootlegger Trail, which runs between the two parks.  The hiking directions have been revised accordingly.

Data about the omicron variant are starting to emerge and the results to date confirm the initial impressions:  the more variant is more transmissible and can overcome vaccine protection more readily than other variants, but it is also a good deal less virulent, particularly among the vaccinated.  The current surge in hospitalizations is primarily due to the delta variant, whose case numbers are still increasing. Hospital admissions in South Africa for the omicron variant have a rate of 58 per 1,000 infections, the lowest of the four COVID waves, and one-third of what was experienced during the delta surge.  The cases of those who did end up in the hospital were significantly less severe.  Fewer of the coronavirus patients required oxygen and ventilation, and the proportion that required intensive care or ended up in the ICU dropped from 30% to about 13%.  Moreover, people seemed to recover more quickly from omicron compared to delta, whether they were in the hospital or not. Outside the hospitals, many recovered in quite a short period, 3-4 days on the average.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 273,958,134; # of deaths worldwide: 5,360,416; # of cases U.S.: 51,609,170; # of deaths; U.S.: 826,675.

The “boring” pandemic – A rioter receives his sentence – Investigations about various events of the 2020 election – Rejection of the motion to dismiss Dominion Voting Systems’ lawsuit – Evening statistics

Tucker Carlson has recently called upon his viewers and upon Americans in general to stop chattering about COVID because it is “boring.”  I don’t see that a disease that has caused about 50 million infections and well over 800,000 deaths in this country alone is unworthy of interest; but never let it be said that I shut my ears to sage counsel.  So here are some other topics for consideration:

Robert Scott Palmer, one of the January 6^th rioters, has been sentenced to 63 months in prison for assaulting a police officer with a fire extinguisher, a wooden plank, and a pole, the longest prison term to date handed down to any of the participants of the insurrection.  His sentence is still unduly lenient for someone guilty of treason; but at any rate he has been charged with a felony instead of trifling misdemeanors, so that is so much gained.  Palmer, incidentally, has sent a letter to the judge expressing remorse for his actions and denouncing Trump for lying about the election results.  “They kept spitting out the false narrative about a stolen election and how it was ‘our duty’ to stand up to tyranny,” Palmer wrote. “Little did I realize that they were the tyrannical ones desperate to hold onto power at any cost even by creating the chaos they knew would happen with such rhetoric.”

It appears, also, that the investigation by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis into Donald Trump’s extensive attempts to overturn the 2020 election results, having lain dormant for months, is becoming active again.  Various reports say that she is likely to empanel a special grand jury to review potential election interference, including the infamous call with Trump asking Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to “find 11,780 votes.“

And Trump’s diehard ally Sidney Powell is undergoing troubles of her own with our court system.  A federal investigation is examining the finances of Defending the Republic, an organization founded by Powell to fund her “Kraken” lawsuits to overturn the 2020 election. A grand jury has been empaneled, and subpoenas and documents requests have gone out to multiple individuals as recently as September.  Overstock.com founder Patrick Byrne, who briefly served as Defending the Republic’s CEO, says he had his own concerns about the group’s finances.  In a telephone call with QAnon enthusiast Lin Wood that Wood surreptitiously recorded, Byrne claimed that Byrne, Michael Flynn, and Flynn’s brother Joseph Flynn quit the group in April after Powell refused to allow an audit of Defending the Republic’s accounts.  “I gave her a laundry list of things she had to clean up and told her she had to get an auditor,” Byrne told Wood on the call.  The record of this call has been turned over to the investigative committee, which will doubtless show it the attention it deserves.

There is additional judicial pushback from the events of the past election in the form of the rejection of a motion from Fox News to dismiss Dominion Voting Systems’ suit against the network for its defamation of the company.  Fox News, it may be remembered, avidly supported Sidney Powell’s claim that the Dominion had changed votes in the 2020 election through algorithms in its voting machines that had been created to rig elections for Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, a claim that does not have a shred of evidence to support it and which was rejected by William Barr himself, Trump’s own Attorney General.  As a result of this decision, Dominion Voting Systems’ lawsuit is able to continue unimpeded, with the potential result of Fox News paying several million in damages.

Such are the items of today’s journal entry.  I trust Tucker Carlson will be gratified to learn how diligently I have followed his advice. Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 273,958,134; # of deaths worldwide: 5,360,416; # of cases U.S.: 51,609,170; # of deaths; U.S.: 826,675.

Resorting to physical therapy – Elon Musk – A faked vaccination certificate – Some positive developments about omicron – Evening statistics

I am not an especial hypochondriac, but I tend to get apprehensive about unexplained aches in the knees and hips.  I have known several friends and relatives who have neglected seemingly slight pains in these joints until they become so serious as to be the first step in the descent to lameness.  For the past several days I have had a persistent dull ache in both the left hip and the right knee, and today I went to an orthopedist to have it investigated.  Both the knee and the hip were X-rayed, and the news is good:  no cartilage damage, no signs of arthritis.  The orthopedist wrote out a prescription for physical therapy, which I was able to obtain this same afternoon.  I have had recourse to physical therapy in the past for other issues, and I am always impressed by the therapists’ professionalism and range of knowledge.  In this case the exercises that the therapist recommended have already provided considerable relief. 

Time Magazine has designated Elon Musk as “Man of the Year,” and if by that they mean someone most representative of the age at large I concede that they have made a thoroughly appropriate choice.  Senator Elizabeth Warren noted that he had paid no taxes in 2018, and called upon him to correct this oversight.  Whereupon he publicly excoriated Warren in the most shrill and venomous terms, outraged by the suggestion that his special privileges are called in question and that he is expected to pay taxes like everyone else.  I am bound to say that I am mystified by the praise so many have bestowed upon him.  He appears to have the same sort of bloated ego that afflicts many of our most prominent celebrities.  Happily he has not, up to this point, demonstrated any political ambitions; otherwise he could easily become a second Donald Trump – and merely one of these, surely, is as much of a penance that any nation can reasonably be expected to endure.

An unidentified woman was admitted to the Raymond-Poincaré de Garches hospital in Hauts-de-Seine for COVID-19 at the start of December. When she arrived at the hospital, she presented its medical staff with a certificate that said she had been vaccinated against the virus.   The staff accepted it at face value, although as matters turned out, the certificate was faked.  The virus was less readily hoodwinked than the physicians:  the woman’s health deteriorated rapidly and the tests she underwent revealed that she had no antibodies.   By the time doctors found out about her fake vaccination, it was too late to change her treatment.  The disease had progressed to a degree that its effects were irreversible and she died shortly afterwards.

Several fully vaccinated, boosted staffers who work at Kaiser Permanente’s Oakland Medical Center recently contracted the omicron variant of the virus after attending a wedding.  The outbreak actually gives us reason to be hopeful.  None of the staffers fell seriously ill and they don’t appear to have passed the virus on to anyone else.  So far, despite its transmissibility, the symptoms of the omicron variant appear to be relatively mild.  Cases of the virus as a whole are increasing, but hospitalizations remain relatively low in counties whose population has a 70% or higher vaccination rate.  At any rate, it’s beginning to appear that those who are fully vaccinated do not have to worry about the omicron variant.  It’s still a bit early, of course, to make a definite pronouncement on this matter; but the results so far are certainly encouraging.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 273,197,272; # of deaths worldwide: 5,352,184; # of cases U.S.: 51,435,652; # of deaths; U.S.: 824,520. 

Working on a club hiking schedule – The Bull Run Occoquan Trail – Lawsuit against the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers – A possibility of the pandemic ending in 2022 – Evening statistics

I have been negligent about journal entries this week because I am in the middle of devising the hike schedule for the Capital Hiking Club for the first quarter of 2022.  The lack of availability of a bus is quite a handicap.  It means that I cannot schedule hikes whose starting point differs from its endpoint.  Such a proviso confines me to loops and there-and-backs (sometimes also referred to as “roundabouts”).  Most of the hikes in the CHC’s repository involve hikes with different start and end points, so these are not very helpful.  Sometimes they can be modified to become a loop or a there-and-back, but not often.  It may be asked why, in an area that contains numerous long trails such as the Catoctin Trail (26 miles), the Dickey Ridge Trail (18 miles), the Tuscacora Trail (252 miles), and so on, to say nothing of the Appalachian Trail itself, I do not simply set up there-and-back hikes on these.  The answer is that the hikes must conform to certain criteria, such as offering a longer option in the range of 9-13 miles and a shorter on in the range of 6-9 miles, and the trails do not have many areas where such a setup is feasible.  In there-and-back hikes, the differential between the longer and the shorter option is halved, and the trails do not always have convenient landmarks at sufficiently close intervals to use for turnaround points.  I don’t mean to say that the issue is insurmountable, but it does mean that it takes a much greater amount of time to work out the details.  In such little insidious ways the virus makes its effect; had it not been for the new surge of the pandemic, we would have been using buses again by now.

Yesterday I went with the Vigorous Hikers along the Bull Run Occoquan Trail.  I generally use this trail during the spring season, when it is particularly rich in wildflowers (the masses of bluebells in April are famous) but it has its attractions in mid-December as well.  The views of Bull Run through the trees are more numerous with the absence of foliage.  It was a splendid day, beautifully clear and with warmer temperatures than usual, quite spring-like.  We started at the parking area at Rte. 28 and went to a log bridge beyond the marina and then returned, using a slight detour up to Hemlock Overlook.  The hike leader said in his notification email that it was 21 miles round trip but our measurements after the hike was completed indicated that the distance is at least a mile more.  Even though I have been on the trail this past April, it has changed since my previous visit.  The trail no longer skirts around the playing fields of Kincheloe Soccer Park but adheres to a gravel road that passes through them and the path past the soccer park, where it goes through an area that is extremely miry all year round, is now protected by a boardwalk.  For a while the hikers were spread apart on the hike, but eventually we settled into a main group and a smaller group of three in the vanguard, of which I was one.  The three of us did start to flag towards the end but on the whole we kept up quite a reasonable pace:  we began the hike a few minutes past 8:00 and returned between 2:30 and 2:45 – 6½ to 6¾ hours in all, including a stop for a leisurely lunch, to cover 22 miles and an aggregate elevation gain of 3000 feet.  The trail seemed all but effortless after my recent experiences of the Appalachian Trail in New Jersey; the rocks on the trail are minimal and the ups and downs, though steep in a few places, are quite brief. 

Karl Racine, the Attorney General of Washington DC, has sued the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers for their role in the riot of January 6^th.  “Our intent is to hold these violent mobsters and violent hate groups accountable and to get every penny of damage we can,” Racine said. “If it so happens that we bankrupt them, then that’s a good day.”  It would indeed be an occasion for rejoicing if these felons receive any kind of penalty proportionate for their offenses.  Up to this point the federal charges levied against the rioters have for the most part been misdemeanors.   Prison time would of course be the best solution, but I have no objection to heavy monetary compensation from them; the damage to the Capitol has been estimated as costing well over $30 million. 

It appears that COVID might lose its pandemic status at last in the coming year.  Vaccination rates have risen.  The amount of fully vaccinated are as follows:  95% of all seniors 65 years and older, 72.2% of all adults 18 years and older, 65% of Americans 5 years and older.  In addition, therapeutic measures are being developed.  Two new anti-viral pills, one developed by Pfizer and one by Merck, have been tested upon high-risk individuals and the initial results are encouraging:  in both cases the rate of hospitalization went down substantially within the group given the actual pill as opposed to the group given a placebo.  This means that, if the pills live up to their expectations and receive approval for general dissemination, COVID could become a relatively easy disease to treat.  This does not mean that vaccines can be dispensed with altogether.  It will still be imperative to ensure that as few people contract the disease as possible, so that the virus does not keep continually mutating.  Nor do we know what the long-term risks of the pills might be.  Still, it undoubtedly would be an improvement if coming down with COVID would eventually be on a par with, for example, coming down with pneumonia:  something to be taken quite seriously, to be sure, but far from being a death sentence for a substantial number of the persons it afflicts. 

Opposed to such promising developments is the fact that we have already lost well over 800,000 people to the pandemic (nearly 1 in every 400) and that we are likely to see many more casualties during the winter months, when people as a whole tend to go out of doors less frequently and indoor gatherings are more common, particularly during Christmas and the New Year.  The omicron variant continues to transmit much more rapidly than previous variants and its overall level of severity is still unknown.  At the rate people are currently dying on a daily basis, I do not see how we will emerge with less than 1,000,000 fatalities in all by the time the spring season begins.  I earnestly hope that I am mistaken.

Statistics for 12/14 as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 271,708,666; # of deaths worldwide: 5,336,408; # of cases U.S.: 51,136,442; # of deaths; U.S.: 821,335. 

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 272,447,652; # of deaths worldwide: 5,345,057; # of cases U.S.: 51,286,915; # of deaths; U.S.: 823,360. 

The first live performance attended since the beginning of the pandemic – Face masks for singers – A shortage of nurses, but an over-supply of nurse practitioners – Cyril Ramaphosa – Another anti-vaxxer succumbs – The case of the missing enzyme – Evening statistics

On March 6, 2020, I attended a concert of the King’s Singers at George Mason University.  Even then, the effects of the pandemic were beginning to be felt.  Ordinarily a concert from such a well-known group would have been sold out; on this occasion there quite a number of empty seats.  And from that day I have not felt able to attend a single live performance until this afternoon.  Today, some twenty-one months later, I attended a performance of Handel’s Messiah at the Old Presbyterian Meeting House in Alexandria.  I was invited by CC, who is a member of the choir.  It was not a performance of the complete Messiah, which is well over 2½ hours, but it covered the first part plus the Hallelujah Chorus.  The procedure for entering the church was rather like that which I experienced in the New York restaurants; that is, each person provided proof of vaccination before being admitted and everyone wore a face mask. 

This precaution extended to the choir members as well; they used face masks specially constructed for singers, which allow sufficient space around the mouth to sing comfortably while still managing to contain droplets.  It still requires considerable effort to use them, of course.  CC, whom I saw before the concert began, explained that the singers had to practice using exaggerated emphasis of consonants to ensure that the words could be heard properly.  Even so, the soloists did not use them while they were singing their parts.  The chorus had evidently practiced to some purpose.  At first they sounded slightly muffled, but they quickly got into stride and for the remainder of the concert their volume and enunciation was at normal levels. The performance was played on period instruments and with an orchestra on a much smaller scale than is ordinarily heard in modern performances, thereby providing an experience closer to what the original audience must have heard than the majority of contemporary performances do.

It was admirably done.  Choir singers, soloists, and instrumentalists all performed with a verve that is sometimes lacking in larger-scale performances.  I have attended other performances of the Messiah, usually with a full-scale orchestra, but this performance had an intimacy I have not experienced with this work before – without, however, any sacrifice of precision or tonality.  It was, to use Jane Austen’s phrase, “perfect, in being much too short.”  And it was a strange sensation, almost like relief, to be assured that the practice of live singing and music-playing has not entirely died out.  That sounds like an exaggeration, but one considers that it has been nearly two years since I have heard anything of the sort, it will not be wondered that I began to doubt whether I would ever have an opportunity of seeing or hearing a live performance again.

Afterwards we gathered at CC’s lovely new house for a dinner party.  There were ten of us in all.  Gatherings of this kind are becoming less worrisome now, at any rate when one is vaccinated and can be reasonably well-assured that the others are vaccinated as well.  At least, that is the situation to date.  We may have to revert to self-imposed isolation again, depending upon the rate of increase of the number of COVID cases during the upcoming winter season.

Since some of the guests were or have been medical professionals, the conversation at one point turned on how the profession is faring now.  I was surprised to learn that, although there is a shortage of nurses, there is something of a glut of nurse practitioners.  Being an ICU nurse at this point is not an attractive prospect, with hospitals being filled to overflowing and with numerous patients becoming abusive upon learning that their own obstinacy has led to the downfall of their health.  So several nurses, naturally, are trying to switch over to private practice, which has the advantages of less stress and better pay. 

Another national leader has been affected by the virus.  Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa, has tested positive for COVID.  He is fully vaccinated and his symptoms are mild, but he is undergoing self-isolation nonetheless.  His case fits in with the pattern of the omicron variant overcoming the protection provided by the vaccines, but happily the variant still appears to be less severe than other strains of the disease.

Another case has had a less happy outcome.  John Eyers of Southport, Merseyside, aged 42, was a rock-climber and body-builder –  the fittest, healthiest person I know,” according to his sister – and also, alas, a determined anti-vaxxer who thought that if he happened to contract the disease it would be a mild case on account of his excellent physical condition.  Indeed, he had been wild camping and climbing mountains just a few days before he was diagnosed with COVID.  His assumption was not entirely false.  The COVID mortality rate of all people in their 40s in the UK has been about 1 in 1500, but for those with no underlying physical conditions the rate has been less than 1 in 28,000.  But in this case Eyers paid a heavy price for his refusal to accept a measure that would have reduced his chances of succumbing to COVID by a factor of 32.  He was diagnosed with COVID on June 29^th, hospitalized on July 3^rd, placed on a ventilator on July 11^th, and died on July 27^th.   Just a day or so before he died he was saying, “Why didn’t I get vaccinated? Why didn’t I do it? Why didn’t I listen?”

It is not clear why someone with such a high level of health and strength succumbed so swiftly when others in much worse physical condition have escaped with few or no symptoms.  Researchers have isolated a certain enzyme, OAS1, that triggers the immune system in responding to infections.  The majority of the COVID patients who have developed severe or fatal reactions do not have this enzyme.  But why some people are born with the enzyme and some are born without it is still a mystery.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 270,426,226; # of deaths worldwide: 5,321,864; # of cases U.S.: 50,801,455; # of deaths; U.S.: 817,956. 

Hiking along the Appalachian Trail in New Jersey – The resort town of Vernon – A rant concerning pharmaceutical advertising – Trump loses in court but keeps delaying – Evening statistics

After I departed from my aunt’s, I extended my absence with a project I’ve been meaning to do for many months:  that is, hiking more of the Appalachian Trail.  Specifically, I wished to cover the portion that goes through New Jersey, resuming my trek where I left off after my visit to Delaware Water Gap nearly two years ago.  I had intended to begin this attempt in February, when the daylight hours are getting longer.  But this past February the rise in virus cases made traveling of any kind inadvisable, and afterwards I was scheduled for the trips to Sequoia, Idaho, and Burkes Garden.  At this point virus cases, of course, are on the rise again, but since I’ve been fully vaccinated and have received the booster as well I felt emboldened to make the effort. 

The place in which I stayed was Vernon, NJ, at a hotel in the Mountain Creek ski resort.  The hotel contains condos that are privately rented out as well as regular hotel rooms, and I stayed at one of these.  Such an arrangement is a good deal less expensive than booking a hotel room directly; and the room, in addition to being spacious and comfortable, contained a kitchenette in which I could prepare breakfast.  This condition is critical for the purposes of hiking, because it is otherwise difficult to obtain breakfast at a time sufficiently early to make the most of the daylight hours.  In checking into the hotel I discovered that the caution that the New Yorkers have been displaying over the pandemic has not extended to the city’s neighbors – Vernon is a mere 55 miles away from Manhattan – and that not a single one of the guests whom I encountered in the lobby and corridors, nor the hotel clerks themselves, wore a facemask. 

Incidentally, the hotel clerks seem remarkably ignorant about the hotel’s own rules.  During the last day, when I was taking out the garbage, I found a notice next to the chute asking that no glass be included.  But there seemed to be no place to leave glass bottles to be collected.  When I went down to the hotel desk to ask how glass should be disposed of, their response was “Can’t you just put it in the trash bag?”  I pointed out that the notice specifically said that glass in the trash bag could adversely impact the trash compacter.  In the end they agreed to take the bottle off of my hands, but I was somewhat surprised by my position of being more concerned about conforming to the hotel’s regulations than its own employees.

Vernon proved to be something of a letdown.  Admittedly I was visiting it just as the ski season was beginning and the guests at the hotel were not numerous.  But the town itself is without charm or distinction and Rte. 94, the street that connects the various resorts to the town’s main street, is not agreeable to walk upon, being without sidewalks and with shoulders that in some areas become narrow as a thread.  For a resort town, it does not offer much in the way of shops or restaurants.  The cuisine of the Far East is, somewhat improbably, well-represented at Vernon, for no fewer than three of the restaurants provide Japanese, Chinese, and fusion menus.   (The remainder of the restaurants tend to be pizza places.)  I went to the Japanese restaurant the first night, where the dinner was only fair, and I did not venture on any of the elaborately described sushi rolls when I found that none of the sushi chefs were wearing facemasks.  After that experience I relied on food from the supermarket for my evening meals.

For two of the hikes themselves I was able to arrange a shuttle service, which I had never done before.  I was extremely fortunate in my driver.  Not only was he an efficient driver well-acquainted with the local roads, but he also was quite knowledgeable about the AT itself and on both hikes he gave me a brief précis about what to expect on the section I was to cover.  He also was solicitous about my welfare, requesting me to notify him by text when I had safely completed my hike or to contact him if I was having difficulties.

To take the hikes in order –

12/7 – Wawayanda State Park to Rte. 94 and back, 10½ miles, 1600’ elevation gain

This was a fairly nondescript hike, until the end.  The hike is only 5 miles each way (plus an additional ¼ mile along a spur trail from the park’s visitor center to the AT) and the elevation profile did not appear especially daunting, at least on paper.  But the last part of the hike descended Wawayanda Mountain along a series of enormous rock slabs over the length of ¾ mile before reaching the road, and then of course I had to backtrack as well.  I later discovered that this section is known as the “stairway to Heaven” and is a popular local hike on account of the challenges that clambering over the rock formation provides, rather like the hike on Old Rag is in this area.  Had I known about this in advance I would have approached the segment in a different spirit; as it was, I was extremely frustrated about the slow pace I was making, being anxious to return to the car and navigate my way to the hotel before twilight descended. 

12/8 – Wawayanda State Park to the State Line Trail and back, 8½ miles, 2300’ elevation gain

Again, this hike was fairly nondescript, but it was redeemed at the end by a rock scramble up to a ridge line, followed by a walk along various relatively flat rocks on the ridge to the intersection with the State Line Trail, where the AT leaves New Jersey and passes into New York. 

It was quite early when I completed this hike and I had intended to do an additional there-and-back from the parking area along Rte. 94.  But I was feeling under the weather that day:  I was dragging my feet at the end of the morning hike, where the terrain is not at all difficult, and I think I may have had a touch of fever, for I was unable to feel warm even after I returned to my room at the hotel and it took an effort of will to eat, even though I was hungry after my exertions.  It took an effort of will, also, to stay up until 8:00 before turning in to sleep; I did not want to go to bed too early, because if I got up in the middle of the night I would be in poor condition to start a long hike hours later, after sunrise.

12/9 – High Point State Park to Culvers Gap, 14½ miles, 1900’ elevation gain

Everything went well on this hike.  The fatigue that had overtaken me the preceding day had completely disappeared.  Moreover, the weather had undergone a distinct change for the better.  It had been rather gray and overcast the first two days, but a gentle snowfall had visited the area during the night, leaving about ½ inch of snow on the ground.  The sky was still clouded, but the cloud cover was thinner than it had been on the preceding days, allowing gleams of sunlight to break through.   I had the best part of the day, as it happened, because the sky became overcast again by about 3:00. 

This hike had a great deal of variety, with numerous overlooks.  Several provided views of the lovely Delaware River Valley, which I had first seen during my excursions in the visit to Delaware Water Gap nearly two years earlier.  It was inexpressibly cheering to see it again during the final descent.  And it was such a relief to know that once I completed the descent, I would not be forced to go up it again.  Indeed, the advantages of using a shuttle were felt throughout the hike.  Since I was assured of sufficient daylight for 8 hours, I was not in the least pressured for time.  As a result, I could take some of the trickier parts as cautiously as I liked, without making a frantic effort to get over them as quickly as possible.  These “trickier parts” were somewhat numerous.  The AT in New Jersey tends to be rocky – not to the degree that it is in northern Pennsylvania, where the encounter of one boulder field after another at length begins to inspire an emotion something akin to inveterate hatred; but sufficiently uneven to require care in places, particularly in descending.  As I noted earlier, the elevation profile of the trail on paper appears moderate, but several of the ascents and descents are, though short, quite steep, and the descents in particular should not be undertaken too hastily. 

The AT in New Jersey is much better marked than it is in northern Pennsylvania.  Blazes in most areas occur with great frequency.  It sometimes happened that the amount of leaves on the ground obscured the path, as is usual during this season; but whenever I felt a doubt about my direction, I only had to look around and I would invariably find a blaze to orient me.  I would not go so far as to say that it is impossible to get lost on the AT in New Jersey – but one would really have to work at it.

12/10 – Mohican Visitor Center to Culvers Gap, 18 miles, 2700’ elevation gain

“You simply flew yesterday!” was my shuttle driver’s comment when I was riding with him to the beginning of this day’s hike.  I would not be at all surprised to learn that my speed was unaffected, or perhaps even faster, as a result of the more deliberate pace I took in areas that seemed to call for it.  It may well be that the attempts to dart over the more challenging portions of the trail are self-defeating in the long run.

I did not enjoy this hike to quite the same degree as the one I did yesterday, but that was on account of external factors.  For the hike from High Point I had three advantages:  1) a coating of snow that to some extent smoothed out the irregularities of the rock surfaces; 2) sub-freezing temperatures that transformed muddy patches into firmness; 3) sunbeams continually breaking through the cloudy sky.  All of these were gone on this day:  the snow had melted, exposing the rocks in all of their leaf-covered glory; the muddy patches had relapsed into mire; and the day remained overcast despite the warmer temperatures.  On the other hand, the hike itself was quite impressive, with many overlooks.  At the beginning, in particular, I was pausing at locations just yards apart from one another, looking down into the valleys below.  And at the end, just before the final descent, there was a particularly magnificent view of Culver Lake and of Branchville beyond.  The hike included a couple of rock scrambles, invigorating without being unduly arduous.  I was certainly tired by the end of the hike, which was by far the most strenuous of the four I had done.  But, I was, so to speak, agreeably tired, pleasantly conscious of having succeeded in the goal I had set for myself for that day and conscious as well of being enlivened by the exertions that seemed to intensify my senses of sight and sound and smell and taste, even to the extent of savoring the fresh quality of the air I was breathing. 

Afterwards I drove home, crossing the Delaware River at one of the roads that leads to the Poconos resort area and thereby avoiding the horrors of the New Jersey Turnpike.  Traffic in the Harrisburg area was certainly a bit congested, but not to extent of enforcing that infuriating stop-and-go driving that is so common in driving along I-95 in the Philadelphia, Wilmington, and Baltimore areas. 

Because I was unable to arrange shuttle pickup for each day, I did not cover quite as much of the trail as I had hoped.  But I did complete over 40 miles (some of them, of course, repeated twice during the there-and-back hikes), and barely over 20 miles of the AT in New Jersey remain to be explored.  Perhaps I will be luckier this coming winter than I was during the last one and get the opportunity to complete this section.

During all of this time I did not have access to a workstation, and so I obtained news from television, chiefly from CNN and Fox News.  I prefer to use the Internet as a news source:  it is much easier to switch from one report to another to compare the two and at least make an attempt to reconstruct the events that actually occurred.  All of our major news channels at this point have abandoned making even a pretense of impartiality.  One feature, independently of the discrepancies in the reports between news channels, struck me very forcibly.  The news channels rely a great deal on advertising for their funding, and among these advertisements is a proliferation of those for medical products.

And when I say “advertisements,” I mean full-length narratives.  Not one of them is under a minute, which is a long time for a commercial.  Almost invariably they show people in a background of various outdoor activities:  camping, fishing, sailing, swimming, etc. – presumably to establish some sort of connection between their products and Mother Nature.  Strange as it is to relate, I have never encountered substances such as dexamethasone, rilpivirine, lexapro, methamphetamine, and so on, in the course of my wanderings out of doors.  Perhaps I’ve been looking in the wrong places.

And what medications they advertise!  I would not give a single one of them to my neighbor’s dog.  The list of side effects for each of them rivals that of the Ten Plagues both in severity and diversity.  There is said to be some degree of monitoring for pharmaceuticals in process, but it is certainly not evident from the fact these products, which have so many risks associated with their use, are bought and sold as casually as aspirin.  The peoples of other nations look on with wonder and disbelief at how blithely American pharmaceutical manufacturers are allowed to hawk their own products, a sentiment with which I heartily concur.

All of the advertising distracted me a bit from the news, I admit.  There was not much of importance in any case.  Trump has had some legal reverses in his attempts to hinder the committee investigating the events of January 6^th.  These do not appear to have had any material effect on him.  He continues to levy lawsuit after lawsuit to delay matters to the greatest extent possible.  So do his disciples.  Perhaps this is a good thing in its way.  He has graphically demonstrated how easy it is to thwart our judicial system by clogging it with baseless lawsuits, and such a demonstration may arouse a reaction that at long last will initiate some much-needed tort reform.

I did not get the statistics for each of the days I was in Vernon – not having access to a workstation makes it more of an effort – but I did get them for a couple of the days.

Statistics for 12/7 as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide:267,344,403; # of deaths worldwide: 5,285,841; # of cases U.S.: 50,252,315; # of deaths; U.S.: 812,013. 

Statistics for 12/9 as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 269,701,841; # of deaths worldwide: 5,302,088; # of cases U.S.: 50,533,153; # of deaths; U.S.: 815,237. 

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 269,982,622; # of deaths worldwide: 5,317,616; # of cases U.S.: 50,762,671; # of deaths; U.S.: 817,789. 

A day in the city — Rising vaccination rates — “Overhyped” diseases — New restrictions in Italy — Detainment of Suu Kyi — Evening statistics

It was unseasonably warm in New York today, and I spent much of the morning and early afternoon wandering about the city, leaving my aunt’s apartment in the Upper East Side to walk to Grand Central Station, then to the Flatiron building, and then to Washington Square, returning back via the East Side along the river.  After lunch I met with my brother to visit the Museum of Modern Art, whose collection has grown more impressive, if anything, over the years, and contains some of the most iconic artworks of the 20th century.  Afterwards we went to have a quiet drink at a local bar, greatly enjoying the opportunity to converse with one another after months of enforced isolation.  Following that I returned to my aunt.  Neither of us were in the mood to go out to dinner — we have been dining somewhat over-heartily for several days — so my aunt prepared an excellent home-cooked dinner and that meal also was enlivened by quiet family conversation.  An extremely enjoyable day, and also a fairly energetic one; the walks back and forth to Washington Square and then to the MOMA and the bar afterwards, plus the return to my aunt’s place totalled about 17 miles in all.  

Vaccination rates are rising at last, thanks to concerns over the omicron variant.  Pharmacies and hospitals are actually having difficulties in supplying the sudden demand; but that is much better, on any count, than having a significant amount of the populace not accepting the vaccines at all.  At this point over 75% of everyone five years and older has had at least one dose and nearly 64% are fully vaccinated, a significant advance on figures as recent as those of last week.

Ron Johnson has accused Dr. Fauci of “overhyping” AIDS.  Fauci is understandably puzzled by such a charge, since the AIDS epidemic killed over three-quarters of a million people in this country alone and 36 million worldwide.  It is difficult to see how the harmfulness of a disease with such disastrous effects could be exaggerated.  But then again Johnson and his ilk are convinced that another disease has been “overhyped,” namely, the COVID virus responsible for a pandemic that’s already lasted nearly two years.  What is required to convince them that an infectious disease can have serious social consequences, goodness only knows.  An entire continent would have to be depopulated, I suppose, to persuade them.

Italy is among the European nations that have imposed severe restrictions on the unvaccinated portion of the populace.  People who can not show proof of vaccination will be prohibited from leisure activities such as theatres, cinemas, concerts, indoor restaurants, public events and sports venues.  They will be able to use public transit, but only if they are able to show proof of a negative COVID test within 48 hours.  Not all vaccine holdouts are content to forego public spaces in exchange for not getting the shots.  One Italian man is facing charges of fraud after trying to obtain a health pass by attempting to dupe a health worker into injecting the vaccine into a fake arm. The prosthetic didn’t match the man’s skin tone and was noticed by the health worker.  

Suu Kyi has been sentenced to a four-year sentence.  It was reduced afterwards to two years, but the charges that the military government leveled at her are only a small portion of the ones that the new government has assembled against her. If found guilty of all the charges she faces, Suu Kyi could be sentenced to more than 100 years in prison.  I think we can take it for granted that the new government intends to imprison her for life, not only to prevent her from running in the next election but to forestall the use of her as a rallying point for the pro-democracy movement in Myanmar.  She is being held by the military at an unknown location, where she will serve her sentence.  The l Min Aung Hlaing government, while falling short of actually executing her, is effectively transforming her into a “non-person.”

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 266,663,497; # of deaths worldwide: 5,277,219; # of cases U.S.: 50,132,720; # of deaths; U.S.: 810,124.  It was only a matter of time, but we have surpassed another sad milestone today; our case count is now over 50 million, just over 15% of the national population.

A family gathering — Riverdale — Mysterious deaths of hikers explained — Mount Semeru — Possible optimism about the omicron virus — Definite pessimism about the IQ of our national representatives — Evening statistics

My aunt, brother, and I spent the afternoon with my cousin and his family in Riverdale.  Ostensibly it was an afternoon of football watching, for which my cousin ordinarily prepares chicken wings and chili, but on account the fact that we had missed having Thanksgiving together and also because it was Hanukkah, my cousin provided somewhat more elaboration fare, which included braised beef, roasted chicken, and potato latkes.  He had been a professional chef previously and still teaches cooking classes, so it is not surprising that the food was of top quality.  At one point my aunt, my cousin-in-law, and I took a stroll to take in the beautiful weather and to exercise the dog.  Riverdale has a very different character from Manhattan, almost suburban in comparison, and it is a good pleasanter to walk in:  groups of two or three people do not sprawl over the entire width of the sidewalk and dog owners do not block the way for other pedestrians.  At one point we passed the site of a new store that is planned to open in January and we chatted briefly with the owners, who happened to be on the premises at the way and were busily making preparations for the new business.  It is part of the economic rebound that has been occurring generally:  at this point the unemployment rate is lower than that of February, 2020, just before the pandemic began.

The mystery of the hikers who died in the Sierra National Forest in Mariposa County has been solved.  At one point it was thought that they had succumbed to a variety of toxic algae in the water, but that would not explain why all of them died at approximately the same time.  It now appears that it was an ordinary case of hyperthermia and dehydration.  The family (a married couple with a young child, plus one dog) began their 8-mile hike on a day in August when the temperatures were in the low 70s.  But in mountainous regions, temperatures can change with astonishing speed.  In this case the temperatures soared to well over 100 degrees (nearly 40 degrees Celsius) and the family began to get dehydrated before completing three-quarters of the hike.  Apparently the couple went to search — vainly — for water and for medical help when their child began show disturbing symptoms.  In such temperatures even the ground can be painfully hot to sit upon, and in that area there are not many trees to provide shade.  The couple had brought only 85 ounces for a hike that, when undertaken in the summer, carries a recommendation from the Forest Service of 160 ounces for each adult, with additional water supplies for any infant and pet included in the group. 

Nature showed her deadlier aspect on the other side of the globe as well, when Mount Semeru in Lumajang district of the East Java province erupted, killing at least 13 people and covering dozens of villages with thick layers of ash. A thunderstorm followed by days of rain eroded and finally collapsed the lava dome atop the mountain, evetually triggering the eruption.  In addition to the fatalities, 57 people have been hospitalized, including 16 in critical condition with burn injuries. Rescuers were still searching for seven residents and sand miners along a river in Curah Kobokan village who were reported missing. Entire houses in the village were damaged by volcanic debris and more than 900 people fled to temporary government shelters.  

Dr. Fauci has sounded an encouraging note about the omicron virus, saying that at this point it does not appear to carry a high degree of severity.  It is still too early to make a definite judgment to this effect, but Fauci has said that the travel restrictions recently imposed against several countries may be lifted.  At this point the delta variant remains the dominant one, accounting for more than 99% of cases and driving a surge of hospitalizations in the north. National Guard teams have been sent to help overwhelmed hospitals in western New York, while Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker has issued an emergency order requiring any hospitals facing limited patient capacity to reduce scheduled procedures that are not urgent.

We shall never know, I suppose, why the far right continues to urge a policy that kills off its own base.  Representative Matt Goetz has gone on record as saying “The best vaccine is Mother Nature’s vaccine.  It’s contracting the virus.”  I must admire his dedication in taking the time from his busy schedule — he is currently under investigation for his alleged ties to a sex trafficking ring, which must be admitted to be something of a distraction — to make this claim, particularly in light the fact that the COVID virus has already infected 50 million in the country and has killed over 800,000.  However, there is no disputing about tastes; if he and his followers wish to contract the virus, one can only wish them success in their quest.  His medical knowledge appears to be on a par with that of his colleague Marjorie Taylor Greene, who recently argued that 600,000 Americans succumb to cancer annually without triggering any lockdowns — seemingly unaware that cancer, unlike the COVID virus, is not contagious.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 266,123,730; # of deaths worldwide: 5,270,662; # of cases U.S.: 49,969,856; # of deaths; U.S.:  808,763.

More activities in New York — The mollycoddles of the West — Prevarications of Alec Baldwin — Evening statistics

I visited the Metropolitan Museum of Art with my aunt and my brother, and afterwards we dined together at an excellent Chinese restaurant.  It was very reassuring to know that everyone in the room was vaccinated and was wearing a facemask.  Truly, New York City is the first place I’ve been to where people are behaving as if we are undergoing a pandemic.  No one has become a recluse, the city’s economic activity is ongoing; but everyone takes simple precautions as a matter of course, without making any fuss about it.  Those “rugged individualists” of the Western states, by way of contrast, transform a trifling inconvenience such as wearing a facemask into a crushing burden. 

I have not said anything to date about the accident shooting on the filmset of “Rust,” which resulted in the death of cinematographer Halyna Hutchins and injury of director Joel Souza, but the recent statements of Alec Baldwin, who fired the shot, have stirred me from my apathy.  Baldwin fired the short after being handed the gun for a scene after it had presumably been checked by the armorer, only to find after the fact that it actually contained live ammunition.  I have no doubt that Baldwin underwent a horrifying experience.  But his recent statements are simply irresponsible.  He claims, first, that the gun fired immediately after he had pulled the hammer of the gun and then released it, without his pulling the trigger — which is not physically possible — and, second, that it is “highly unlikely” that he will be formally charged with the shooting.  Santa Fe County District Attorney Mary Carmack-Altwies responded by saying that no one involved with handling the gun has been cleared of culpability.  In the words of Sheriff Adan Mendoza, “Guns don’t just go off.  So whatever needs to happen to manipulate the firearm, he did that, and it was in his hands.”  The episode has highlighted concerns generally within the Hollywood industry after the effectiveness of safety procedures regarding firearms used on sets.  Several have suggested relying to a greater degree on digital effects to simulate gunshots.  Perhaps an even better solution is for film-makers to place less reliance on scripts that center on gunshots for dramatic effect, but that is not likely to happen

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 265,684,258; # of deaths worldwide: 5,263,719; # of cases U.S.: 49,933,750; # of deaths; U.S.:  808,608.

Visit to New York – Furries – Sightseeing – Awaiting developments on the omicron variant – Evening statistics

I’m in New York City now, visiting my relatives.  I arrived yesterday afternoon.  This trip presents quite a contrast to the previous one that I made.  This time I was not obliged to drive all the way and I was able to leave my car at a train station in New Jersey and from there take the New Jersey transit system to the city.  It is considerably easier to leave the car outside of the city and I felt no apprehension in using public transit.  Everyone wore masks and people were sitting at a reasonable distance from one another.  In New York restaurants one must not only use face masks to enter the dining area but must present proof of vaccination, which they validate by comparing the vaccination card or images thereof (I uploaded mine onto my cell phone) with official identification such as a driver’s license.  Some New Yorkers go so far as to wear face masks outdoors as well as indoors.  Masks are required to enter any store or public area such as the front desk area of an apartment building.  I met my cousin-in-law, who had been traveling through the Midwest on business, at my aunt’s, and he told me that these practices were not being followed in any of the other cities he visited. 

TK, my cousin-in-law, is a Chilean and now resides in Santiago, but although he has lived in the U.S. for some years there are some practices in this happy land of ours that are still able to take him by surprise.  When he was in Chicago the hotel at which he was staying happened to be hosting a furry convention.  This phenomenon is unknown in Chile, which perhaps should be a source of envy on our part.  He found the experience of being surrounded by people dressed in anthropomorphic animal costumes unsettling, for which I can hardly blame him.   The majority of furries, it is true, feel fully human and have no desire to become a non-human animal; they simply enjoy media that features animals who walk, talk, and do otherwise human things.  But a significant number of them really appear to believe that they are not entirely human.  It is not altogether a coincidence that a “furry” is seven times more likely to lay claim to transexuality than a non-furry, for transexuals are another group who wish to deny the limitations of their biological makeup.  The furry fandom is much less objectionable of the two groups, to my mind; at least they do not impose on others the way transexuals do, invading the restrooms of people whose gender (biologically at least) differs from theirs and disrupting activities such as sports competitions with fallacious claims of being female while in fact possessing the additional muscle mass one would expect a man to have. 

Today I visited Little Island, an artificial island park of about 2 1/2 acres supported by pot-shaped structures above the water.  It contains three lawns, each rising to a different height to provide overlooks at the northwest, southwest, and southeast corners of the park.  These provide views of the palisades and buildings along the western side of the Hudson River.  Each lawn contains landscaping, which must possess considerable beauty during the spring and summer, and even at this time (autumn merging into winter) was not without interest.  During the warmer months I have no doubt it will become very crowded, but at this season the number of visitors, though fairly large, was not cumbersome to the degree of restricting one’s movements. 

Afterwards I returned by way of the High Line in Chelsea, a linear park about 1 1/2 miles in length, built on a disused southern viaduct section of the New York Central Railroad’s West Side Line.  It is bordered by beds of various plants and has extensive views of the city buildings and of Hudson River beyond.  It has the advantage, moreover, of enabling one to progress above the city blocks without waiting at the intersections for the lights to change. 

It was after this walk that I met with my aunt and my cousin-in-law for lunch, at an excellent deli that has a curious history.  Originally it was located in the East Village on Second Avenue (hence its name, Second Avenue Deli) and was something of prime gathering place for many stars of the Yiddish theatre.  It closed briefly after its owner was murdered in 1996 during the course of a gun robbery, a crime that has never been solved. In 2006 the new owner moved the restaurant to its current location, not far from my aunt’s residence on the Upper East Side.  The split pea soup was very refreshing after walking about for several hours on a brisk day in late autumn.

The omicorn variant has already affected international travel, both for Americans and for visitors to the U.S.  As of December 6th, all travelers, whether vaccinated or not, must take a COVID test within one day of entering the U.S. (up to this point vaccinated travelers were given a timefrance of 72 hours).  In addition, e federal mask mandate requiring travelers to wear masks in airports, on planes and on other modes of public transportation such as trains and buses has been extended through March 18th. 

The variant is spreading rapidly, with cases now confirmed in California, Utah, Colorado, Minnesota, Nebraska, Missouri, New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Hawaii.  At this point the symptoms among the persons diagnosed with the omicron variant continue to be considerably milder than those who contracted the delta variant.  So if the omicron variant crowds out the delta variant, it may actually prove to be a stepping stone towards reaching the end of the pandemic.

Today’s statistics as of 7:30 PM – # of cases worldwide: 265,131,303; # of deaths worldwide: 5,257,310; # of cases U.S.: 49,866,672; # of deaths; U.S.: 807,991.

News of the omicron variant, both good and bad — The Super-Agers — Evening statistics

he omicron variant is spreading rapidly. The U.S. has several confirmed cases, California, Minnesota, and Colorado have one apiece and New York already has five. Cases have been confirmed in Brazil, Spain, Switzerland, Singapore, India, Greece, and France. The numbers in these countries are small, but in Norway a group of over 50 have come down with the variant on account of an office Christmas party. In Spain the cases are especially troubling, because none of the people involved have any link to Southern Africa, where the variant supposedly originated.

However, the cases recorded to late have been mild. Angelique Coetzee, a doctor with a private practice in Pretoria and chair of the South African Medical Association (SAMA), has been called in to treat several cases and she says that at this point they have been quite manageable, with none of them exhibiting the loss of smell and taste that other COVID patients have experienced and all of them recovering in a few days. This assessment must be qualified by the fact that the patients she treated will mostly healthy young people, who are more likely to recover from the COVID virus in any case. Coertzee admitted that the variant may prove to be a more serious matter for older, unvaccinated people, of whom we have a plentiful supply in this country. The majority of cases of the new variant have been among the unvaccinated. In addition, the omicron variant, unlike delta, appears to be able to infect persons who have previously come down with the virus and have since recovered.

There is encouraging news about so-called “Super-Agers,” or people who retain their cognitive abilities past the age of 65. The factors that aid in retaining mental abilities are: a body mass index of less than 30, continual mental stimulation (even a medium as lowly as crossword puzzles), and an occasional glass of alcoholic beverage. If these criteria are indeed valid, I amply qualify: my BMI is 21.5, I drink wine (in moderation) daily, and if writing a journal is not mental stimulation, I don’t know what is. So perhaps I may be able to evade the mental decline that I have seen overtake so many of my older relatives.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 264,400,142; # of deaths worldwide: 5,249,007; # of cases U.S.: 49,695,834; # of deaths; U.S.: 806,329.

The omicron variant remains an unknown factor – DeFazio steps down – Another prominent anti-vaxxer succumbs to COVID – Evening statistics

Developments concerning the omicron variant are still to be determined. It apparently is outcompeting delta in speed, but whether it will force out delta and become dominant is remains to be seen. The large number of this variant’s mutations (over 50 in all) suggests that it might become more resistant both to vaccines and treatments such as monoclonal antibodies. Studies are underway to determine to examine whether the antibodies produced by the vaccines will have an effect against the new variant, but it will take about two weeks to arrive at a definite conclusion on this point. At this point, also, we still have no idea whether the omicron variant is more virulent or less than other strains.

Congressman Peter DeFazio, the longest serving representative in Oregon’s history and chair of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, announced that he would not seek reelection this coming year. Since he has been in the House for 35 years and is now 74 years old, this move is to be applauded: he is not waiting, like Dianne Feinstein and Don Young, for nothing short of death to relinquish office. However, he is the 19th Democrat to retire or to run for a different office, which means that the Democrats will have a difficult struggle in order to retain their majority in either of the chambers.

Marcus Lamb, founder of the large Christian network Daystar, died Tuesday after contracting the coronavirus. Lamb and his network consistently promoted anti-vaccine conspiracies, hosting daily interviews with skeptics who talked about dangerous, hidden forces pushing vaccines and stealing Christians’ freedoms. William Blake once claimed that John Milton, in writing “Paradise Lost,” was “of the Devil’s party without knowing it.” The same might be said about Lamb, albeit for widely different reasons.

Today’s statistics as of 9:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 263,716,044; # of deaths worldwide: 5,241,569; # of cases U.S.: 49,572,995; # of deaths; U.S.: 805,004.

No bus yet for CHC – South Run, the Cross County Trail, Lake Mercer, and Burke Lake – Independence of Barbados – A case of lowered expectations – Evening statistics

The Capital Hiking Club held a Zoom meeting yesterday, during which the issue of resuming the bus hikes was discussed. As might be expected, the emergence of the omicron variant, which occurred some days after this issue was placed on the agenda, induced the Board to defer use of the bus until April at the earliest. I am tasked with making out the hike schedule up to that point. The schedule has already been completed up to and including January 1st, so there are twelve additional hikes to plan for. They will have to conform to certain criteria: not too far from the DC Metro area, no hikes that begin at one parking area and end in another, and so on.

Today I went with CC and TK on a hike that goes along the South Run Trail to Lake Mercer and the Cross-County Trail, takes the CCT up to the road leading to the Fairfax County Parkway, loops back to Lake Mercer, and then completes the circuit around Burke Lake. Like the Lake Fairfax hike, which I led last week, it is not spectacular, but it traverses quiet woodlands that provide a welcome relief to suburban sprawl. When we lunched at Lake Mercer, we saw numerous waterfowl, chiefly gulls and loons, skimming the lake surface, and at one point we saw a bald eagle as well. A few members of the group elected to omit the circuit around Burke Lake, but the greater number persevered to complete a hike of 20 miles in length and with about 1000 feet of elevation gain. We went at an appreciably strenuous pace, as is suitable for the Vigorous Hikers, averaging close to 4 miles per hour and arriving back at the parking area at about 2:30. We were aided by the fact that the weather has been rather dry for the past several days and that, consequently, none of the pylons of the fairweather stream crossings were submerged. The hike was enlivened by the occasional snow flurry and a brief hailstorm in the morning, but these quickly passed, removing the dampness from the air and giving way to sunlit skies and temperatures well into the 50s.

Barbados is now a republic. It actually became independent of the United Kingdom in 1966, but remained a constitutional monarchy and continued to pledge allegiance to Queen Elizabeth, who was represented on the island by a local Governor-General. But now it is formally a separate nation, though it remains a member of the British Commonwealth. The motives of its population for preferring independence from a nation across the width of the Atlantic is understandable, but how will be they be able to thrive on their own? The island area is well under 200 square miles and its population is less than 300,000. Only a little over one-third of the land is arable. The Barbadians use up approximately five times the amount of natural resources that the island is capable of producing, which means that they are heavily dependent upon imports. The island’s government currently has a fairly prosperous economy fueled by three factors: tourism, the international business sector (it is home to several prominent world banks), and foreign direct-investment. It has a huge national debt, however, and whether it can continue to maintain its standard of living without being propped up by the UK remains to be seen.

A curious comment from Bradley Cooper, an actor of “A Star is Born,” when describing an incident in which he was accosted by a stranger during a subway ride approaching him while brandishing a switch-blade knife. Cooper managed to jump a turnstile and run to the station entrance, thereby foiling any intended attack. And here is his summing up of the episode: “My guard was down. I realized I had gotten way, way too comfortable in this city.” I daresay I am more captious than most people, but it seems to me that one should be able to enter subways and buses and other public transportation without being subjected to assault and attempted homicide.T

oday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 263,013,313; # of deaths worldwide: 5,232,577; # of cases U.S.: 49,422,000; # of deaths; U.S.: 802,972. At this point the virus has infected nearly 15% of the national population and has killed nearly one in every 400.

Hike to Split Rock – Mileage and elevation gain totals for 2020 vs. 2021 – The omicron variant – Evening statistics

Today I went with AD, RH, and others on a hike starting from Keys Gap to the Loudoun Heights Trail down to Split Rock and back. It is the same hike that we did in mid-July; and yet it is not the same, for the Appalachian Trail has been re-routed from the point that it enters Harpers Ferry National Park. The new segment is much less rocky than the one it replaced. The view of Harpers Ferry from Split Rock was quite different at this season. In the summer we saw rafts afloat on the confluence of the Shenandoah and Potomac Rivers, as well as numerous people along the pedestrian bridge spanning the Potomac and on the C&O Canal Towpath, as well as various hikers at the top of Maryland Heights. Now, of course, there were no rafts, and we saw hardly any people on the bridge, on the towpath, or atop the overlook. The town was thrown into even greater relief by the absence of tourists.

At this point I have hiked less than 1900 miles for the year and it is uncertain whether I will be able to complete a full 2000 miles, as I did last year. However, I will be getting in more elevation gain. Last year I ascended a total of 292500 feet, and this year I have already done over 298000 feet; I probably will end up with a total greater than 300000 feet for the year.

There is some slightly optimistic news concerning the omicron variant: South Africa, where the variant was first identified, has seen no significant increase in hospitalizations. It is too early to be certain, but it is possible that this new variant, while it is highly contagious, may be less virulent than the delta variant. Obviously, it is best to take the standard precautions as all wait to see how this new complication unfolds: wear facemasks indoors, wash hands frequently, shield sneezes and coughs.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 261,740,249; # of deaths worldwide: 5,216,866; # of cases U.S.: 49,093,775; # of deaths; U.S.: 799,391.

Meandering in Rock Creek Park – Hiking and mental health – Going along the Dickey Ridge Trail, including the Dickey Hill overlook – The emerging omicron variant – Obstacles to our entering the endemic stage – Evening statistics

I went yesterday with JK to Rock Creek Park, starting from Peirce Mill to take an 11-mile circuit via the Valley Trail to the Boundary Bridge and returning by the Western Ridge Trail. I had not done this hike for nearly a year, but I remembered the directions and turnings very well; it has been a standard hiking route for numerous hiking clubs, particularly during the Christmas season. I have already remarked on one of the numerous advantages of living in the DC Metro area is being in close proximity to a park of this description: throughout much of the hike one goes along the stream with hardly any dwellings or stores in sight. The footpaths are extensive: this particular hike takes in only about one-third of the total mileage of the park’s hiking trails. Nor do the park hikes skimp on elevation gain; the trails meander over numerous hills and although the ascents are not very long they accumulate over distance. The total elevation gain for today’s hike was about 1700 feet. When we started from the parking area the sky was gray and overcast, but from the moment that we started the sky began to clear and we walked in sunlight for much of the morning. It was cooler than the Thanksgiving Day and windy as well, blustery at times but invigorating. Initially we encountered few people, on account of starting early. Later on, however, we encountered many other hikers, including three friends from the Capital Hiking Club doing a hike of their own. Even so, JK said that the trails were much more crowded yesterday.

JK, who is considerably younger than I am, is still working and during the hike we discussed how hiking generally can act as a restorative to counteract the frustrations that accumulate during working hours – what I call “clearing away the office cobwebs.” When I worked at Northrop Grumman I made it a habit of taking a walk of a couple of miles during my lunch hour. My colleagues were somewhat nonplussed when I adhered to this practice even when the weather was cold or sultry or damp, but in the end they came to look upon it as a kind of institution.

On a few occasions some of them would accompany me on my route, but I cannot say that I won many adherents to the habit of periodic walking. I was glad to see that today, at least, so many people were using the trails to advantage and that several families were taking young children along. American children in general do not walk a great deal and they receive little encouragement to do so, either by the schools or the groups that organize their extra-curricular activities.

Today I went with AD and RH along the Dickey Ridge Trail in Shenandoah National Park, going from the Visitor Center to the northern terminus and back, with an additional loop that took in Fox Hollow, Snead Farm, and the Dickey Hill overlook. The overlook, which I have visited many times, contains expansive views of the Browntown Valley bordered by the Massanuttens, with a glimpse of the Alleghenies further to the west. It was somewhat chilly but very dry, and the color of the sky was intensely clear and blue. The climbs were only moderately steep, but they amounted to 2500 feet of elevation gain in all.

AD is on the board for the Wanderbirds and since I am on the board for Capital Hiking Club it was natural that we fell into discussion about possible dates for the resumption of bus hikes, as well as the plans for continuing hikes during the interval before we can use buses again. The emergence of the omicron variant, as may be imagined, has complicated matters. Formerly it appeared that we would be able to have bus hikes early in 2022. There is undoubtedly a demand for them. But the new variant is certainly troubling. At this point it is unknown whether the vaccines, even when fortified by the booster, will be effective against it. Viruses mutate continually, which means that new variants will emerge even when the disease enters the endemic stage – as we see now with influenza, for instance. The question is whether this one will prove to be as contagious and as deadly as the delta variant or whether it will eventually subside.

The reluctance of a certain portion of Americans to get vaccinated is another factor. At this point about 58% of the national population is vaccinated. It has been estimated that to bring the virus under control, our immunity rate must reach 80% or even as much as 90%. Our immunity rate for measles, for instance, is 95%. Even now there are sporadic outbreaks of this disease, but they are outbreaks against a background of almost no cases or scattered endemic cases. At this point the daily rate of COVID vaccinations is barely over 10,000 across the entire nation, which indicates that we will not be achieving immunity very soon.

Yesterday’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 260,858,293; # of deaths worldwide: 5,205,888; # of cases U.S.: 49,050,408; # of deaths; U.S.: 799,137.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 261,352,467; # of deaths worldwide: 5,211,922; # of cases U.S.: 49,077,695; # of deaths; U.S.: 799,312.

Thanksgiving in quiet – The winter surge gains momentum – Evening statistics

It has been a quiet Thanksgiving, the celebratory meal taking place in the middle of the day with DC and JC (and which featured, among other dishes, a salad containing some of the most flavorful tomatoes I’ve ever tasted, which came directly from JC’s garden).  It was mild and warm, and we walked a mile or so after the main part of the meal before we continued with the dessert.  I was glad to have avoided travel during Thanksgiving week, which is invariably disagreeably hectic, be it by plane, train, or car.  At the same time I am anxious to see my New York relatives again, so I will probably be going there the following week. 

The situation this year is somewhat different from what it was last year.  Various social events that were suspended in 2020 have now been restored:  the Macy’s Parade, for example.  Yet the pandemic continues to spread, and there is talk of yet another variant emerging from South Africa.  At this point the delta variant remains the most prevalent, accounting for more than 99% of the cases currently active. 

The pace of the increase has decelerated:  the past additional 1 million cases developed over a period of 11 days, whereas during the previous winter peak it took only 4 days for a similar increase.  But it is uncertain whether such a trend will last.  During the past week there has been an average of a 23% increase of COVID cases in the nations of North and South America.  In Europe the situation is worse.  The WHO has reported more than 2.4 million new cases in that region as of the week that ended Nov. 21, or approximately 67% of all COVID cases worldwide during that period.  Just a few weeks ago experts were talking of the pandemic being reduced to endemic status well before the end of the year, but at this point such a favorable outcome seems very unlikely.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 260,248,187; # of deaths worldwide: 5,198,442; # of cases U.S.: 48,988,273; # of deaths; U.S.: 798,520. 

Hiking in the Massanuttens – Cowering to Xi Jinping – A welcome show of non-subservience – Booster shot reactions – Evening statistics

Yesterday I led a hike for the Vigorous Hikers that I had led nearly a year earlier: a double loop, with both loops starting from Elizabeth Furnace.  I varied it, however, by starting the first loop up Sherman Gap and descending by way of Shawl Gap, and I was glad afterwards that I did.  The last mile of the ascent up to Sherman Gap is both steep and rocky, and its current covering of fallen leaves made one’s footing very uncertain.  Descending along the milder gradient of the Massanutten Trail from Shawl Gap was much easier than going down Sherman Gap would have been.  The second loop, also, was in the counter-clockwise direction instead of clockwise, going along the Massanutten Trail to Meneka Peak and descending along the Tuscarora Trail.  This option enabled us to have lunch at the Buzzard Rock overlook, which is one of the highlights of the hike.  The forecast had been for cloudy weather, but it was clear for the most part and there were many views of the valley from the ridgeline through the bare branches of the trees.  Several of the hikers elected to do the first loop only, which is 9 miles with about 1750 feet of elevation gain.  But the remainder who persevered and completed the second loop made good time, and everyone was back at the parking area by 3:30. 

ChIna is, most appropriately, forcing its business partners to master the art of kowtowing.  JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon recently remarked that the Chinese Communist Party and JP Morgan were each celebrating its 100^th year, adding, “I’d make you a bet we last longer.”  He currently is groveling, apologizing for the jest and castigating himself in public for hinting that the CCP’s lifespan is anything less than infinite.  Doubtless his continued self-abasement and his protestations of gratitude for the unkindness it displays towards him will eventually convert its haughty disdain into condescending acceptance and pave the way for smoother business relations.  It does appear that our president is able to provide at least a measure of backbone in his dealings with the mainland.  Biden has invited Taiwan to the democracy summit to be held on December 9-10, disregarding the shrill protests of Xi Jinping’s government; and while this falls short of endorsing Taiwan’s independence, it is at any rate better than nothing.

The CDC is claiming that fewer people have been experiencing severe reactions from their booster shots than from their second doses.  That has not been so in my case.  Setting aside the question of whether my digestive upset on the day following the booster was a direct consequence of receiving the booster or simply a coincidence, my arm was more tender and the soreness lasted longer than was the case with either of the initial two vaccine shots.  However, the CDC appears to be assuming that the booster is same brand as the initial vaccine, which again was not so in my case.  My first two shots were of the Pfizer vaccine, whereas the booster was Moderna – which combination is said to be slightly more effective than getting both the two vaccine shots and the booster from the same source.   There have been other stories from various acquaintances of severe reactions from booster shots, but it is all anecdotal; one would like to see some verifiable data on the subject.

Today’s statistics as of 8:00 PM – # of cases worldwide: 259,681,148; # of deaths worldwide: 5,191,314; # of cases U.S.: 48,968,090; # of deaths; U.S.: 798,215.